2020 Divisional Predix: Brees vs Brady III

Courtesy of New Orleans Saints

Written by Sam DeCoste

Super Wild Card Weekend delivered. The heroics of Josh Allen, Tom Brady, Lamar Jackson, Baker Mayfield, and, um, Taylor Heinicke, headlined a stellar weekend in the NFL playoffs a week ago, and the schedule ramps up from here. Many regard Divisional Weekend as the best slate of games in the NFL schedule all season long, and the playoff games on tap would certainly compliment that distinction. The playoffs resume on Saturday when the immovable wall meets the unstoppable force, as the Rams take on the Packers, and concludes on Sunday when a pair of future Hall of Fame quarterbacks duel in New Orleans, as the Buccaneers battle the Saints. Sandwiched in between are blockbuster matchups featuring Josh Allen and the Bills hosting Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, and the Super Bowl champion Chiefs hosting the Wild Card-victorious Brwns.

Historically, my postseason Predix record is inconsistent. In 33 combined playoff games since 2017, my overall record is 14-19. Last year, I finished the Wild Card round 0-4, and was forced to play catchup all postseason long. I finished last week at 3-3, which is invariably a letdown, but encouraging going into the second round. I tossed tails on two coin toss games in Seattle and Nashville, and could not see the Browns winning their first game in Pittsburgh since 2003 through my crystal orb. But never mind that, it's time to move forward with the next round!

Here are my records from this season:

Record last week: 3-3

Regular season record: 163-92-1 (63.6% accuracy)

Regular and postseason record: 166-95-1

Rams @ Packers

Each offensive possession for the Packers on Saturday will be must-see television. Green Bay's number one scoring offense versus Los Angeles' number one scoring defense. MVP favorite Aaron Rodgers will take the field after the Packers sat and relaxed during the Wild Card round, and he will be facing the ferocity of Aaron Donald on the defensive line, without top left tackle David Bakhtiari. On the outside, All-Pro receiver Davante Adams will matchup with All-Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey. When shadowing DK Metcalf a a week ago, Ramsey allowed just 3 receptions for 33 yards. No receiver has surpassed 57 yards in his coverage, and he has allowed just one touchdown pass all season long. Adams has scored 18 times this season, and he is Rodgers' favorite target. As stellar as Rodgers and Adams have been this season, Green Bay's role players will need to lift their game on Saturday to take the pressure away. Establishing the run with Aaron Jones at the outset could be pivotal in widening the offense, and the likes of Allen Lazard, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Robert Tonyan need to create separation consistently against LA's prolific secondary. Rodgers will look to extend plays when the receivers are covered, but expect him to dial up his number one target abundantly as he has done all season long, whether Ramsey is shadowing him or not.

The X-factor to deciding this NFC matchup is Rams quarterback Jared Goff. The offense is severely limited because of Goff's ineptitude all year, and was even more compromised a week ago as he continues to recover from thumb surgery. In the Wild Card win over the Seahawks, Goff completed 9 of 19 pass attempts for 155 yards and a touchdown. If not for a productive night for Cam Akers, and a stellar outing from the Rams defense, Goff's struggles could have registered a more glaring impact. Goff can settle his and his head coach's nerves with a methodical approach, throwing short passes and ridding the ball from his hands quickly to Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods. The Packers defense is serviceable but certainly exploitable, and the Rams can control the line of scrimmage if Akers finds space to run, and Goff has time in the pocket to throw the ball accurately and quickly. 

This is box office material. The Rams defense will hold their own in the frigid temperatures in Lambeau Field, but the Rams offense will not. Jared Goff's arm is hampered, and he cannot be trusted. Rodgers and the Packers offense may flash some rust out of the gate, but they will stamp their authority when it is all said and done.

Prediction: Rams 16, Packers 31

Ravens @ Bills

For the first time since 1995, the Buffalo Bills won a playoff game. They are one win away from the AFC Championship Game, and they can push even farther with Josh Allen leading the charge. When Allen throws for over 300 yards this season, the Bills are 9-0, and the Bills offense have scored over 24 points in a franchise-record 10 straight contests. The offense is firing on all cylinders, and Stefon Diggs will be uncontainable for Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters on the outside. The Ravens will look to fluster Allen with a blitz-heavy defensive approach, but Allen can burn his opponents from the pocket or outside the numbers. Forcing Allen outside opens lanes for him to run, or extend plays for him to throw deep down the field to Diggs, Cole Beasley, John Brown, or even Gabriel Davis. Pressuring Allen may force Allen to think quickly, Allen has thrown a league-high 19 touchdown passes against the blitz this season, and has a 6-0 record against top 10 passing defenses this season. 

Lamar Jackson and the Ravens snapped a playoff win drought of their own, and the third-year quarterback earned his first career win in the postseason against the Titans a week ago. The Ravens rallied from a 10 point deficit in the first quarter and asserted their will over the course of four quarters, and the defense allowed just 209 yards to the NFL's fourth ranked scoring offense. On offense, the Ravens likely need to score 30 points to outscore Buffalo's high octane unit, and the running game will need to be at full throttle. The running game featuring JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards can exploit the Bills defense, and Jackson can use his legs as well to keep their prolific rushing attack humming. But the Ravens must start fast and avoid an early deficit as they did against the Titans, otherwise Buffalo's offense could roll them over sooner than later. Jackson can spread Buffalo's defense out if the game is close and the ground game is working, but he cannot win the game with his arm. Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown will impact the game as pass catchers, but the role players within Baltimore's offense like Willie Snead and Dez Bryant have to receive targets consistently as well for the Ravens to keep up on the scoreboard.

Ravens-Bills is as spectacular as the playoff schedule is, and this should be a thriller from start to finish. As frisky as the Ravens are, there is a reason the Bills are the number two seed. They can score 24 points in the blink of an eye, and they are battle-tested against elite defenses. The Ravens have more to prove this week than the Bills, and Allen will outlast Jackson over 60 minutes.

Prediction: Ravens 20, Bills 30

Browns @ Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense will suit back up for the first time since Week 16, ready to kickstart another historic postseason. Last year, the Chiefs won 3 straight playoff games en route to a Super Bowl title, whilst coming from behind in every contest. Over the course of the second half of the season, the Chiefs have started fast and allowed teams to creep back. But Andy Reid's teams are strong coming out of the bye, and the Chiefs will come out firing. Mahomes will be licking his lips in the film room at facing the Browns defense, which was picked apart by the Steelers passing game last week. The speed of Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, and Mecole Hardman, along with the explosiveness of Travis Kelce will be too overwhelming for the Browns to handle. The Chiefs can shut the door on the Browns early by stuffing the run early, and generating pressure on Baker Mayfield, forcing him outside the pocket. 

The city of Cleveland watched a first quarter for the ages breathlessly as the Browns jumped out to a quick 28-0 lead over the Steelers within 15 minutes. The Browns belong back in the big time, and they earned their ticket to Arrowhead this week. As phenomenal a night it was for the Browns, Ben Roethlisberger passed for over 500 yards against their defense, and nearly saw their deficit dwindle away in the fourth quarter. Mahomes will torch Cleveland's secondary, which simply does not match up with the speed of the Kansas City receivers. On offense, the Browns need to keep the pressure off Mayfield and stick with their prolific rushing attack. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are capable of controlling the line of scrimmage and spreading the Chiefs defense out, but they will become obsolete quickly if the Chiefs jump out to an early lead. Mayfield cannot win the game with his arm, especially with a weaker supporting cast than his counterpart on the other sideline.

It will surely benefit the Browns to welcome their head coach back after watching the Wild Card round from his basement, but they are overmatched. The Chiefs will come out of their first round bye roaring, and should turn in an impressive win to move on.

Prediction: Browns 24, Chiefs 34

Buccaneers @ Saints

Tune into the History Channel for the third installment between 43 year old Tom Brady and 42 year old Drew Brees. The Saints have the chance to earn the hat trick over the Buccaneers this weekend, and to knock Brady out of the playoffs. In two meetings during the regular season, the Saints trounced the Bucs by a combined score of 26-72, and Tom Brady threw a combined 5 interceptions. The Saints will be thrilled at a playoff rematch, but they will look to improve from a lackluster performance against the Bears in round one. Leading just 7-3 at halftime allowed the Bears to hang around, before Brees and the offense finally settled down and grabbed the game by the scruff of the neck. Alvin Kamara is the engine of the Saints offense, and should expect 25 touches as he had a week ago. Brees will not stretch the ball down the field, but he will rid the ball from his hands quickly to Michael Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, and Jared Cook. The Saints offense will look to methodically drive the ball down the field in long-lasting drives against the Bucs defense, and bury them into an early deficit as they did in the first two meetings.

Despite the enormous collection of talent and experience in Tampa Bay, the Saints have proven to be the Buccaneers' kryptonite. Look no further than Mike Evans on the outside, who will be shadowed by Marshon Lattimore. In 13 career games against the Saints, Evans has just 9 receptions on 20 targets, and averages 54 receiving yards. Even if Evans is neutralized by Lattimore, Brady can spread the ball out to Antonio Brown, who remains one of the most explosive and dynamic receivers in the game. And of course, Rob Gronkowski, ol' reliable. The Bucs aerial attack is too powerful to contain over 60 minutes, as long as Brady is on his game. Explosive plays from Tampa's receiving core minus turnovers from the quarterback is a tangible formula for success the Bucs can harness on Sunday to shock the world. 

The Buccaneers were overmatched across the board by the Saints during the regular season, but the inverse can be said entering the playoffs. That being said, what happened when these foes met in the regular season is impossible to ignore. The Saints own their Floridan divisional rivals, and they will find a way. They better, otherwise it's curtains for their future Hall of Fame quarterback's career. 

Prediction: Buccaneers 20, Saints 31