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| Courtesy of Baltimore Ravens |
Written by Sam DeCoste
Playoff football is here. After an NFL season for the ages, both on and off the field, it is time to look forward to the postseason. The 2020 playoffs will mark the first time 14 teams are featured in the postseason, and the elimination of a bye week for the second seed in each conference. As the Chiefs and Packers sit back and enjoy their bye week as the one seeds in the AFC and NFC, thy will watch the NFL playoffs unfold just as will we this weekend. The NFL welcomes 7 teams to the playoffs who missed the postseason in 2019, including the likes of the Buccaneers, Browns, and even the Washington Football Team. The Wild Card lineup features must-see matchups between the Colts and Bills, Rams and Seahawks, Browns and Steelers, and a rematch of Ravens-Titans from the 2019 Divisional Round.
As the dust settles on the regular season, I can declare I have improved from my 2019 regular season Predix by 4 games. I finish the season with a 63.6 winning percentage overall, which as my third most accurate season picking NFL games since the launch of the blog in 2017. My picks were stellar post-Thanksgiving, but it admittedly took too long for me to gain my footing on the season in September and October to substantially boost my record. But not to fret, I am prepared for what should be a thrilling postseason and extend my winning run into January.
Enjoy the playoff football!
Here are my records from this season:
Week 17 record: 12-4
Regular season record: 163-92-1 (63.6% accuracy)
Lock of the Week record: 13-4
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| Colts @ Bills |
NFL beware, the Buffalo Bills are coming. The Bills are rolling into the playoffs and playing better football than any team in the league, dominating on both sides of the ball. Just a week ago, the Bills backups led the way to a 56-26 win over the playoff-hungry Dolphins, and they are firing on all cylinders. On offense, Josh Allen has flirted with MVP contention all season long, and has his full arsenal of weapons back for the playoffs, including Stefon Diggs, John Brown, and Cole Beasley. The Bills average 47 points per game in their last three appearances, which speaks to the level this offense is playing at. If they score on their first possession, the game could become ugly quickly. The defense is equipped to handle the Colts with takeaways. The Bills rank third in the league in forced turnovers, and the Buffalo secondary is among the AFC's scariest. Barring an uncharacteristically horrific day at the office across the board, the Bills should assert their will against this Colts team.
It is impossible to envy the Colts in their position. As the seven seed and a playoff team, they are being thrown into a buzzsaw this week. As strong as the Bills look, the Colts cannot forego their identity in Buffalo. The Colts ranks top 10 in offense and defense in yards per game, and can control the tempo if they can jump out to an early lead. Jonathan Taylor finished the season as the NFL's third leading rusher, and can control the line of scrimmage in a frigid Orchard Park if the Colts feed him the ball. But if the Colts trail early, the running game will become obsolete very quickly and the pressure will mount on 38 year old quarterback Philip Rivers in 30 degree temperatures. A fast start for Indianapolis can claim control of the game early and force Buffalo's defense to respect their ground game. If Rivers is forced to drop back 50 time and use his arm to deliver a win, it will play right into the hands of the opportunistic and well-coached Bills defense. It will be crucial to slow down Allen and crew as well, and forcing a few turnovers could flip the script on Buffalo.
Points will not be at a shortage in this contest, and the Bills are bound to blow up the scoreboard once gain, as they have been doing all December long. If the Colts fall behind quickly, this one could spiral out of control. For the first time since 1995, the Bills will win a playoff game.
Prediction: Colts 17, Bills 38
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| Rams @ Seahawks |
One of Jared Goff's opposable thumbs has been compromised, and is status for Saturday's Wild Card game against the Seahawks is questionable. If Goff plays, he will be miraculously playing a playoff game just 11 days after thumb surgery. Goff is tough, but has frankly been a liability for Sean McVay and the Rams offense. McVay has been forced to coach around Goff to move the ball this season, and has undermined the Rams defense which ranks number one in the NFL in yards allowed, passing yards, and scoring. Aaron Donald has racked 13.5 sacks this season, and is just as powerful a game wrecker as he has ever been. Jalen Ramsey is lining up for All-Pro honors this season, and he has DK Metcalf's number. In two meetings this season, Ramsey has held Metcalf to just 8 receptions for 87 yards. The Rams defense will keep this close, but the Rams must protect the football, move the chains, and avoid back-breaking mistakes. McVay still is unsure if Goff will start, or if Alliance of American Football leegend and LinkedIn user John Wolford will start his second career NFL game. The Rams can do their best to slow the game down by running the football and lining up in multiple tight end sets, but
Russell Wilson is 8-10 in his career versus the Rams, but this will be his first playoff meeting against his divisional foes. He is capable of carrying the Seahawks on his back as he did in the first 8 games of the season, but Wilson is playing like a shadow of the quarterback he was just 2 months ago. Wilson has yet to eclipse 300 passing yards since Week 9, and the Seahawks offense as a result has been stuck in neutral for weeks. DK Metcalf struggles to create separation against Jalen Ramsey, which increases the responsibility of Tyler Lockett, and the role players on the Seahawks offense to make impact plays for 60 minutes. Seattle's defense has resurged into one of the NFL's stingiest scoring defenses, but Jamal Adams and Jarran Reed are battling injuries and may be unavailable in the first round. Taking the ball away from the Rams offense would flip the game on its head and give the Seahawks the advantage in the field position battle, and frustrate the opposite sideline to no end.
Expect a gritty, low-scoring affair between two teams quite familiar with each other. The Rams are the strongest underdog of all 6 Wild Card games this weekend, and their defense will play damage control. But ineptitude at the quarterback position for Los Angeles will be the deciding factor in a Seahawks win.
Prediction: Rams 13, Seahawks 17
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| Buccaneers @ Football Team |
Tom Brady has led the Buccaneers back into the playoffs in his first season down south, and has a formidable matchup against a spectacular defense in the nation's capital. The Bucs offense is heating up, and they average 35 points per game since Week 10. Antonio Brown is settling in and making impact plays on a weekly basis, and the likes of Rob Gronkowski and Chris Godwin are too explosive for defenses to contain. Mike Evans is questionable to play after suffering a hyperextended knee against the Falcons in Week 17, but the Bucs will be just fine on offense with or without him. The Bucs would be wise to run-first on offense to keep the Washington defense honest, and keep the pressure off Brady. The Bucs are 2-3 against top 10 defenses this season, and Brady has thrown 13 touchdown passes to 8 passes in those contests. It has been a roller coaster season for Brady and the offense, and they habitually implode against worthy competition. But playoff Brady will be locked in.
Alex Smith steered the ship for Washington and guided his team to clinching the NFC East title last Sunday night, but was very limited. Smith threw for just 162 yards along with 2 scores and 2 interceptions against the Eagles in Week 17, and his immobility and hampered calf will hold back an offense which is already unproductive. Only the Jets and Giants average fewer yards per game this season than the unnamed football team deriving from Washington. Chase Young, Montez Sweat, and Washington's ferocious pass rush will need to carry this team on their backs as they have all season long, and register a handful of turnovers to turn the tide. The key to beating Tom Brady is collapsing the pocket on him, and forcing him to go down and take sacks. The defense can also fluster him in the pocket and force him into errant throws down the field and turning the ball over. As talented as the Bucs offense is, they are not unstoppable, and the likes of the Rams and Saints defenses have devised ways to neutralize them in the regular season.
Washington's defense can disrupt Tampa's rhythm and keep this one close through three quarters. But the limits of Smith and the Washington offense has held them back all year, and the playoffs will be no different. It will not be Brady's proudest playoff performance, but the Buccaneers have enough offense to carry them over the line in round one.
Prediction: Buccaneers 24, Football Team 13
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| Ravens @ Titans |
For the second consecutive January, the Ravens match up against the Titans in their first playoff game as favorites. The oddsmakers must have forgotten the Ravens have lost their last 2 meetings against the Titans, including a 28-12 defeat in last year's divisional round, and a 30-24 overtime loss in Week 11. The Ravens enter the postseason firing on all cylinders, and they have recaptured their winning formula which unanimously declared Lamar Jackson the MVP of the 2019 season. But the Ravens have benefited from a soft schedule, their last 5 opponents share a combined record of 28-51-1 this season. Against winning teams, the Ravens are 3-4, including a loss to their opponents this weekend. Baltimore meets its demise when Jackson is forced to win the game with his arm, and the Ravens must find success on the ground early to assert their control on the game. Expect to see plenty of early carries for Gus Edwards and JK Dobbins, and plenty of designed read options for Jackson. As soon as Jackson is forced to pass in a deficit, the Ravens will be in trouble.
In order for the Titans to replicate last season's miraculous upset in Baltimore, they need more of the same. Feed Derrick Henry and let him rip through Baltimore's front 7 as he has done twice in the past 12 months. In his last 2 games against the Ravens, Henry has carried the ball a combined 58 times for 328 yards. The Titans know that the Ravens cannot stop Henry, and there is no reason to steer away from him. Ryan Tannehill can catch Baltimore's defense sleeping with play-action, and target AJ Brown and Corey Davis down the sidelines. The Titans offense is far from one-dimensional, they can score in the blink of an eye whether Henry carries the entire Ravens defense on his back en route to the end zone, or Tannehill launches a deep ball to Brown. There is a reason the Titans finished fourth in the NFL in scoring.
Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are 0-2 in the postseason since 2018, and they have yet to prove they have what it takes to win when it matters, against teams with better defenses than Cincinnati and Jacksonville. The Titans have proven they can steamroll the Ravens with Derrick Henry alone, and they will stun the Ravens once again.
Prediction: Ravens 24, Titans 34
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| Bears @ Saints |
In Week 8, the Saints needed overtime to defeat the Nick Foles-led Bears in Chicago. The Saints have changed since their 26-23 win over the Bears, and the offense underwent a considerable transition when Drew Brees was sidelined with cracked ribs. Brees is back, but is admittedly limited in his abilities post-injury. The Saints offense is heavily dependent on Alvin Kamara, who may not be cleared to play this week after testing positive for COVID-19 prior to Week 17. If Kamara, along with Latavius Murray can return, the Saints offense will build from the back, and allow Brees to rid the ball from his hands quickly. Michael Thomas will return to the offense as well this week after a 3 week stay on injured reserve, and should be ready to make an impact in the aerial attack.
The Bears are the first team in the NFC to reap the benefits of the NFL's expanded playoff format to 14 teams, and the team was able to sneak into the postseason with an 8-8 record after a turbulent regular season. Mitchell Trubisky saved Chicago's season after being renamed starting quarterback in Week 12, and has revitalized the Bears offense. Since Trubisky's return, the Bears average 30 points per game, and David Montgomery has ascended into a top 5 running back in total yards. So long as the Bears are running the ball, and the play-action bootlegs are open for Trubisky, the Bears should not have trouble moving the chains consistently. They are going to have to find consistency on offense and protect the football to outscore the Saints, because that may be the only way to win.
Despite the nature of Chicago's playoff entrance, the Bears can play loose and aggressive. The pressure is not on them, it is on the Saints. They can throw the kitchen sink on the Saints on offense, and see what their opponents are truly made of. But the Saints are 6-2 at home in the playoffs under Sean Payton, and the Bears lack the build of a team capable of breaking Saints hearts. It's now or never for New Orleans, and Brees knows time is running out to win a Super Bowl. Get slimed, Bears.
Prediction: Bears 16, Saints 28
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| Browns @ Steelers |
The Steelers enter the postseason content to hit the reset button after a turbulent December, looking to win their first playoff game since 2016. After starting 11-0, the Steelers lost 4 of their last 5 games, and Ben Roethlisberger's struggles significantly contributed to Pittsburgh's late-season collapse. The passing game is wildly one-dimensional and imbalanced, and forces Roethlisberger to attempt 50-plus passes per game to overcorrect the lack of a running game. Perhaps the 17 point comeback over the Colts in Week 16 signaled Pittsburgh's rebirth as an offense, and a beacon of possibility that the Steelers can recapture that momentum heading into the playoffs. Cleveland's defense is well-coached but unspectacular on paper, and the Steelers romped the Browns in Week 6 by the count of a 38-7 scoreline. The offense is capable of stretching the ball down the field to a core of young and explosive wideouts, and the defense has been dominant all season long. The Steelers defense finished the regular season third in yards per game, third in scoring, second in takeaways, and first in sacks. Dialing pressure on Mayfield and notching a few turnovers was Pittsburgh's formula to opening the season 11-0, and is capable of dismantling the Browns comfortably.
Ben Roethlisberger is 24-2-1 against the Browns in his career. While the current iteration of the Browns is far superior to what Roethlisberger is used to, the Steelers are a tough out at home in January. Expect the Browns to be competitive, but the Steelers to take care of business.
Prediction: Browns 17, Steelers 23
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