Wild Card Predix: Can the Titans Win in Foxboro?

Written by Sam DeCoste

Win or go home. Dare I say more? The playoffs have arrived! Twelve teams are in the dance, and eight teams are in action this weekend. The Ravens, Chiefs, 49ers, and Packers will take the week off and enjoy the playoffs like all of us will on Wild Card Weekend, and there are some great games on tap. The AFC will kick off the playoffs on Saturday when the Bills travel to Houston to take on the Texans, and will continue when the Titans visit Foxboro to battle the Patriots, who are making a rare appearance on Wild Card Weekend. On Sunday, the NFC will take over, when the Vikings and Saints renew their postseason rivalry, and the Seahawks travel to Philly to take on the Eagles.

With the end of the regular season, my Predix record for 2019 is in the books. It turned out to be my least accurate Predix in my three seasons predicting games, and my accuracy dipped by 8 games from 2018. While the regular season is over, I can still finish strong with the postseason. With that being said, it's time to get excited for the playoffs! Enjoy the games and see how my predictions pan out!

Here are my records over this season:
My record last week: 10-6
Regular season record: 159-96-1 (62.1% winning percentage)
Lock of the Week record: 11-6

Bills @ Texans

For the fourth time in five years, the Houston Texans open the Wild Card Round. The Texans earned their fourth division title since 2015, and they take on the Buffalo Bills, who are in the playoffs for the second time in three years. On paper, the Texans seem to be favorites by a considerable margin, but the Bills will have something to say about that.

The Buffalo Bills finished as the third overall defense in the regular season, and fourth against the pass. Their defense is dominant on all three levels, and with the secondary as its backbone. Tre'Davious White is one of the NFL's best cover corners, and the only defensive back not to allow a touchdown in the league this season. He will be shadowing DeAndre Hopkins all game long, which may be the best one on one matchup of the entire weekend. The defense is capable of slowing down the Texans offense, but the game will be decided on Josh Allen's arm. The Bills offense ranks 24th in total yardage, and have been inconsistent all season long. They need to establish the ground game early with Devin Singletary, who has played very well in the second half of the season. The receiving core is not strong enough to exploit the Texans defense without a threatening ground game to complement it, and if Singletary and Allen can run the ball well, the Bills offense will have Houston on its toes all afternoon.

Head coach Bill O'Brien needs to win this game for the Houston Texans. It is an absolute must-win. The Texans front office went all in on this season, acquiring left tackle Laremy Tunsil and wideout Kenny Stills to strengthen the offense and compete with the other high octane offenses in the AFC. Will Fuller is a game time decision for Saturday, but according to NFL Network's James Palmer, Fuller is a "long shot" to suit up. Fuller's potential absence is key, because he opens up the offense when he is on the field, and the Texans will need all hands on deck when they face one of the league's most prolific defenses. The Texans defense will be welcoming back JJ Watt, but Watt has not played since Week 8, and recovered ahead of schedule from a torn pectoral. But there is a risk that Watt can aggravate his injury coming back just 69 days after going down. But the Texans defense will need all the help it can get, they rank 28th in total defense this season. The Bills offense may not be the most explosive, but in the playoffs, defense is crucial. If the Texans can't pressure Josh Allen, or contain an otherwise slow and inconsistent passing game, they are in trouble.

This may not be the sexiest playoff game this weekend, but it could be pivotal in turning the directions of two different franchises. The Texans are going for a deep playoff run, and the Bills are looking for their first playoff win since 1995. It is going to be a highly entertaining affair in Houston, but the Bills will come out with the upset win. Buffalo is 6-2 on the road this season, their defense is capable of slowing down Deshaun Watson while the Texans defense could be a weakness, and head coach Sean McDermott will out-coach Bill O'Brien, who is 1-3 in the playoffs in his career. 

Prediction: BUF 20, HOU 16

Titans @ Patriots

For the first time since 2009, the Patriots will be playing on Wild Card Weekend. Three losses in their last five games sank the Patriots to the 3 seed in the AFC, including a shocking home loss to the Dolphins in Week 17. The Patriots have never won the Super Bowl without a first round bye, and the Patriots have never looked more weak or more vulnerable than they do right now.

The once immovable wall which was the Patriots defense is now being exposed. Stephon Gilmore, who is among the favorites to win Defensive Player of the Year, was torched by John Brown for his first surrendered touchdown all season in Week 16, and Devante Parker caught 8 passes for 137 yards in his coverage in Week 17. The X-factor on Saturday night is the number 20. When the Patriots allow under 20 points, they are 12-0, while they are 0-4 when they give up more than 20 points. The defense is still very talented, well-coached, and capable of dominating their opponent, but it can be slowed down by the incompetency of the Patriots offense. Do not be fooled, Tom Brady is playing at an all time high at age 42, but the receiving corps have never been weaker. Julian Edelman, N'Keal Harry, and Philip Dorsett are the strongest weapons in the passing game, and the game-changing plays will have to come from them. The Patriots offense is not explosive anymore, the only way they can move the ball is meticulous drives down the field lasting 10 plays for 6 minutes, because there is no player on this offense which can stretch the field versus the Titans defense. That being said, Tom Brady is Tom Brady. He makes his money in the playoffs, and if he needs to drive the ball down field with slow moving possessions, that is what he will do.

There couldn't be a better opponent coming into Foxboro this week in the Tennessee Titans. While they are the 6 seed in the AFC, the Titans are an incredibly dangerous football team with the play of quarterback Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry. The former Heismann Trophy winner, Derrick Henry, won the rushing title for running backs this season, and will be the X-factor on Saturday night. Bill Belichick is known for taking away the opponent's top offensive weapon every week, and he will attempt to neutralize Henry. He is impossible to tackle, especially this late in the season when defenses tire, and can go the distance at any moment. It is crucial that Henry gets going early in the game and start fast, because the Titans cannot afford to let Henry become a non-factor and have Ryan Tannehill beat the Patriots with his arm. Tannehill is 0-6 in Foxboro in his career, and if he has to win the game by himself, against the number one defense in football, history tells us that is not a good sign. 

The Titans have a brilliant opportunity to take down Tom Brady and the Patriots dynasty once and for all with a win. The formula is there for the Titans, especially if Henry can move the ball, and AJ Brown can make plays in Stephon Gilmore's coverage. But the Patriots have not lost a playoff game since 2015 at Denver, and they have not lost a postseason game in Foxboro since 2012. Others may have the balls to pick against New England in the playoffs, but I don't. The Patriots will advance and head to Kansas City. 

Prediction: TEN 17, NE 24

Vikings @ Saints

In the past two postseasons, the New Orleans Saints have seen their season end in the playoffs in devastating fashion. Last year, a ghost pass interference knocked them out, and in 2017, a miraculous Minnesota Miracle sent the Saints home in heartbreak. How sweet would it be for the Saints to start their postseason by knocking out the team which beat them on a miracle play two years ago? Pretty damn sweet.

Despite not earning a first round bye, the Saints look very strong. Drew Brees is playing at all time high, and just broke the record for most passing touchdowns in the history of the league, while completing 74.3% of his passes. Michael Thomas broke the record for most receptions in a season with 149, which is just nuts. Not to mention they still have Alvin Kamara, Jared Cook, Latavius Murray, Josh Hill, and the versatile Swiss army knife known as Taysom Hill. The Saints high octane offense is rolling, and playing in the first round may benefit them, and divert the possibility of rust going into the playoffs. The only way the Saints offense does not show up against the Vikings is if Mike Zimmer takes away Michael Thomas. After Thomas, the most receptions a wide receiver has on the Saints roster this season is 30. The Saints are heavily dependent of the production of Thomas, and even Kamara coming out of the backfield, that if a defense slows down one of them, the Saints won't have any answers. That concern may not rise this week necessarily, but as the postseason progresses, it will.

It may be harsh to overlook the Vikings, but they have their work cut out for them. It is no easy feat going to New Orleans in the postseason, where road teams are 1-7 going back to the 2000 playoffs. Running back Dalvin Cook, who is the engine of this offense, may play, but will not be healthy, and it will slow down the offense. Not to mention quarterback Kirk Cousins is no stranger to atrocious records. The stigma which has followed Cousins throughout his career is he comes up short when it matters. Against the Packers, the offense shriveled up and produced just 7 first downs, with the division on the line. It fits with the Vikings recent record, which was winless against teams with winning records in 2018, and has one playoff win since 2015, which was the Minnesota Miracle. Sadly, it may take another miracle for the Vikings to advance this Sunday. The offense is very talented, and Stefan Diggs, Adam Theilen, and Kyle Rudolph will move the ball against the Saints defense. But come crunch time, when the Vikings need a drive to cut into a deficit or take a possible lead, the Vikings will disappoint once again. It may be ugly, considering the Saints have a habit of starting slow in the playoffs, but the home team will pull it out, and set a date with Green Bay next Sunday. 

Prediction: MIN 20, NO 28

Seahawks @ Eagles

In the history of the NFL playoffs, there may not be a game to look back on between two teams both which a grocery list of injuries. The Seattle Seahawks and Philadelphia Eagles come into their Wild Card matchup missing a number of key players on both sides of the ball. The winner of Sunday's game will be determined by which squad has the better depth, and if the "next men up" can deliver in a high stakes situation.

While both teams are shorthanded, these teams made it into the playoffs with opposite trajectories. The Eagles won four straight to make it to the playoffs, while the Seahawks lost three of their last four. Opposing defenses are finding ways to slow down Russell Wilson and the passing game, and the Seattle defense has been carved up for the past month. The Seahawks do not have the makings of a playoff roster, and they stumbled into the playoffs. The addition of Marshawn Lynch should galvanize the troops and invigorate the ground game, but it is not promising when a team has to rely on a 33 year old running back coming out of retirement to save your season. Barring a Beast Quake 3.0, the Eagles rushing defense will shut the ground game down, as Philly's rush defense ranked third in the league in the regular season. In the regular season meeting between the Seahawks and Eagles, Rashaad Penny and Cris Carson combined for 155 yards on the ground. The Seahawks need DK Metcalf, Malik Turner, and Jacob Hollister to make big time plays in the passing game, which the Eagles are not giving up. 

Over in Philly, the Eagles march into the playoffs with momentum. Carson Wentz is playing at an MVP level considering who he is throwing the ball to. In the win over the Giants, Wentz was throwing the ball to Dallas Goedert, Joshua Perkins, Greg Ward, and Deonte Burrnett. The injuries which Philly have suffered this season are extraordinary, and it is even more extraodinary that they made it to the postseason. But the injuries have continued into the playoffs. Right guard Brandon Brooks' season ended last week with an injury, and running back Miles Sanders as well as tight end Zach Ertz are both question marks for this game. But if Sanders cannot go on Sunday, Boston Scott will get the job done. The former practice squad player was thrust into a starting position with the injuries, and scored three touchdowns in the win over the Giants last week. If Ertz can't go, Goedert will step up, who has 13 catches in the last two games. But most importantly, Carson Wentz can be depended on. Even though this is Wentz's first career playoff start, he has stepped up when the Eagles were calling for a hero, and he has done a better job of making more out of less than Russell Wilson has been able to do down the stretch. 

The amount of injuries will balance this game out, and the winner will be decided by which quarterback can make more plays, because there are not a lot of plays to be had from either receiving core. In the playoffs, the teams that are hot in December usually go further than those who are cold. The Seahawks are coming in cold, and they have been schooled on both sides of the ball for a month. The Eagles have momentum, and this team has experience in the playoffs, and they are no strangers to having their backs against the wall. The Eagles had to fight to make it to where they are, and they will show more fight than Seattle will. The Eagles will advance. 

Prediction: SEA 17, PHI 21