Divisional Predix: Seahawks and Packers Renew Playoff Rivalry

Written by Sam DeCoste

What a thrilling first week of playoffs it was. Two overtime contests, three road teams winning, a playoff comeback for the ages, and two Hall of Fame quarterbacks exiting in the first round. Wins by the Texans, Titans, Vikings, and Seahawks set up another exciting week of matchups on tap for Divisional Weekend. The next round kicks off in San Francisco, where the 49ers host the Vikings, and concludes in the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field, where the Green Bay Packers host the Seattle Seahawks. Sandwiched in between are matchups between the Tennessee Titans and Baltimore Ravens as well as the Houston Texans facing the Kansas City Chiefs.

As exciting as last week was, the results turned out to be remarkably unpredictable. For the first time in Predix history, I failed to correctly predict a single game. That's right, I finished 0-4 in Wild Card Weekend. But don't lose faith in me, last week was wild, and it proved to be unlucky for my predictions. But this week gives me a chance for redemption, and flip the script on my postseason Predix! Enjoy the games, and let's get right into it!

Here are my records over this season:
My record last week: 0-4
Regular season record: 159-96-1 (62.1% winning percentage)

Vikings @ 49ers

The Vikings made fools of us all. Nobody gave them a chance against the Saints in the Wild Card, but they deservedly knocked out Drew Brees and co, and they have another opportunity to shock the world when they take on the 49ers in San Francisco.

On paper, the Vikings match up very well with the home team. While the 49ers defense ended the regular season as the best passing defense in football, they were being exposed towards the end of 2019. In their final four games, the 49ers surrendered 32 points per game. Minnesota has the weapons capable of further exploiting the 49ers defense, with Adam Theilen, Stefon Diggs, Kyle Rudolph, and the engine of the offense, Dalvin Cook. There was uncertainty about Cook's health going into New Orleans, but Cook makes the offense run. He scored 2 touchdowns and ran for 94 yards on 28 carries, and his production helped the Vikings control the pace of the game. If Cook can move the ball effectively, they can slow down the 49ers formidable pass rush, and chew the clock down.

Despite the momentum the Vikings have coming into Saturday, the 49ers finished with the best record in the NFC, and hold home field advantage for a reason. Their defense was dominant this season despite the struggles down the stretch, and when it mattered most, they forced a crucial goal line stop in Seattle to seal the 1 seed. Nick Bosa, DeForest Buckner, and potentially, Dee Ford can wreak havoc in the backfield, which will let the defensive backs led by Richard Sherman go to work. The defense will feel that Kirk Cousins still gets camera shy in the biggest moments, and they can collapse the pocket on him and shut down the offense if the pass rush is humming. On offense, the 49ers have a lot of moving parts which can control the game as well. Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman have combined to lead the league's second ranked rushing attack, and wideout Deebo Samuel has been the 49ers' Swiss army knife all year. Don't forget about George Kittle, either. The 49ers offense has plenty of weapons, and if the running game can get going early, it will open things up for the elite playmakers on this offense. 

Down the stretch of the NFL postseason, defense wins championships, and the 49ers have one of the best defensive units in the league. While they have been slipping lately, going on bye last week will have been substantially beneficial. The Vikings may be coming in with momentum, but the 49ers are favorites for a couple reasons. By the end, San Francisco's defense will make a key play to seal a win for the 49ers and send them to the NFC Championship.

Prediction: MIN 20, SF 27

Titans @ Ravens

The Baltimore Ravens have not lost since September 29, and they face the red hot Tennessee Titans who are coming off a Wild Card win in Foxboro. Two of the best run games in the league will square off on Saturday night in what should be a heavyweight playoff showdown for the ages.

On paper, the Ravens rushing attack match up very well with the Titans defense. This season, Baltimore broke the single season record for most rushing yards. They rushed for over 200 yards in nine games during the regular season, and Lamar Jackson ran for 1,206 yards on the ground as well. Nobody has been able to neutralize the Ravens rushing attack all season, and the Titans can only hope to slow it down. That being said, the last time we saw Lamar Jackson's rushing attack in the playoffs, the Chargers marched into M&T Bank Stadium and shut it down. After three quarters of play against the Chargers in 2018, Jackson completed just three passes for 25 yards, and the Ravens faced a large deficit which forced them to go through the air. Jackson was also sacked 7 times, and fumbled twice. Jackson's game has progressed since then, but the Chargers showed the league that the Ravens are not invincible. Tennessee may not have the defense on their level to slow down Lamar Jackson, but after three weeks of resting for the Ravens starters, there is a possibility of rust, and that they come out slow from the outset.

While the Ravens ranked the top of the league in rushing by a country mile, the Titans finished third in rushing, and Derrick Henry won the rushing title. Against the Patriots, Henry was the focal point of the offense, and carried the ball 34 times for 182 yards and a touchdown. In a game where Ryan Tannehill attempted just 15 passes, everyone watching the game knew that Henry was getting the ball, including the Patriots defense, but they still couldn't stop him. The Ravens, however, rank fifth in rushing defense this season, and may provide a challenge to Henry if his production is slow out of the gate. But Henry will be fresh, while the Ravens defenders will have been resting for three weeks, and they will not want to tackle Henry. We could see another prolific performance on the ground from Henry, but if he isn't making an early impact, it is crucial to move the ball through the air. Ryan Tannehill led the league in passer rating during the regular season, and AJ Brown will be on the outside for Tennessee, and they can move the ball in so many ways. For the Titans to stand a chance, they need to come out swinging and score early, and chew the clock out with their standout running back.

Fun fact, the Baltimore Raves have still not taken down their Christmas decorations in the team facility or the locker room. The team wants to keep everything the way it is during their postseason stretch. That doesn't have anything to do with this game, but it certainly spices up my conclusion. Tennessee doesn't have enough playmaking ability on defense to slow down Lamar Jackson, and while Baltimore may come out slow at first, the Ravens are just too good on the ground to go down now. The Ravens will move on.

Prediction: TEN 17, BAL 23

Texans Chiefs

The Chiefs had a very Merry Christmas, with the Patriots losing their first round bye and being eliminated in the Wild Card. Now they face the Texans, who are coming off their greatest comeback in franchise history over the Bills. These teams squared off back in Week 6, and the Texans prevailed in Arrowhead by a final score of 31-24. Since then, the trajectories of these teams have gone in two different directions, and the game script will be written much differently.

On defense, the Chiefs have been transformed. In December, the Chiefs defense allowed just 10 points per game, and their rushing defense and pass rush in particular have reached new levels. Up front, Frank Clark and Chris Jones have combined to create a formidable duo, and the secondary is playing at a much higher level as well. In their Week 6 meeting with the Texans, the Chiefs gave up 472 yards of offense, including 192 on the ground. The Chiefs team which lost to the Texans is totally different, and Deshaun Watson will have to pull another trick up his sleeve to get the best of a surging Chiefs defense. Oh and by the way, Patrick Mahomes is also playing. The reigning MVP is bound for another prolific performance against a Texans defense which surrendered over 400 yards to the Bills last week. The Chiefs match up well with the Texans on both sides of the ball, and should feel great about making it back to the AFC Championship.

For Houston, it is a thrill just to be here. The Texans never came back from a 16 point deficit in Bill O'Brien's tenure prior to last week, but a legendary comeback against the Bills has the Texans feeling they could make a serious playoff push. They have never advanced past this stage in their short history, and they face long odds to come out of KC victorious. While the Texans prevailed over Buffalo, plenty of weaknesses were exploited last week. The Texans cannot stop the run, their secondary is very inconsistent, the pass protection is out of control, and the passing game is one-dimensional without Will Fuller. To win this game, Deshaun Watson needs to throw the ball quickly to avoid sacks, after being taken down 7 times against the Bills. DeAndre Hopkins also needs to be a part of the game plan earlier than he was last week, as he entered halftime with zero receptions. But for Houston, coming off a dramatic overtime win, the Chiefs may be more fresh after having a week off.

The Texans have shown us they can win in Arrowhead, as they already have a victory against the Chiefs this season. But these are the playoffs, and Bill O'Brien's Texans have never advanced beyond this point. Deshaun Watson will make some Houdini-like plays like he did against Buffalo, but Pat Mahomes will make more. Chiefs win.

Prediction: HOU 9, KC 27

Seahawks @ Packers

The last time the Seahawks and Packers battled in the postseason, the Seahawks stormed back from a 16-0 halftime deficit to shock the Packers in overtime of the 2014 NFC Championship, to send Seattle to their second consecutive Super Bowl appearance. It was one of Green Bay's most heartbreaking playoff losses in recent memory, but five years later, they have a chance at revenge.

Much of what carried the 2014 Seahawks team was the Legion of Boom transcendent defense, which is virtually gone now. Russell Wilson is the face of the Seahawks franchise, and he must shoulder most of the load to lead Seattle to an upset win on the road. Marshawn Lynch out of retirement can make a few plays in the backfield and land a couple of stiff arms, but he is still not in proper game shape, and the offense is completely one-dimensional. The Packers defense surged down the stretch in the regular season, snd the front seven led by Za'Darius Smith and Preston Smith will force Wilson to beat Green Bay with his arm, because the running game is going to stumble. Arguably, the defense overperformed as well in Philadelphia. The Seahawks racked 7 sacks against the Eagles, while totaling just 28 during the regular season, good for 29th in the league. The defense did it against a 40 year old quarterback in Josh McCown after Carson Wentz exited with a concussion, and Aaron Rodgers is far more mobile, and has much higher pocket awareness. Seattle will not have nearly the same level of success pressuring Rodgers, as the Green Bay running game is going to slow down Clowney and co. 

It's easy to forget that the Packers were 13-3, and that Aaron Rodgers was playing like an MVP candidate earlier in the season. Despite not having a strong receiving core as teams from the early 2010s, Rodgers threw 26 touchdowns to just 4 interceptions all season, has only thrown 2 picks at home all year long. But Aaron Jones may be the best Aaron on the football team currently, as he scored 16 touchdowns on the ground this season, and ran for over 1,000 yards for the first time in his career. Jones could be the X-factor in slowing down the Seahawks pass rush and controlling the line of scrimmage, against the 22nd ranked rushing defense in the NFL. Jones matches up well with the Seattle defense, and his production creates separation for Devante Adams, who is capable of taking over a game. Don't be surprised if former Seahawk Jimmy Graham plays a part as well.

We have seen some great postseason moments come from the Seahawks and Packers before, and we should be in position for some more on Sunday night. Unfortunately for us, either Russell Wilson or Aaron Rodgers will be going home this weekend, and only one can advance. In Green Bay, coming off a bye, the Packers are in a great position, and they will also have the frigid playoff weather in their favor. Green Bay will advance, and send Seattle packing. 

Prediction: SEA 16, GB 21