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| Courtesy of Kirby Lee/USA Today Sports |
Written by Sam DeCoste
Week 8 was as unpredictable as they come. I could not foresee the Titans falling to the Bengals, the Falcons beating the Panthers, or the Vikings out-coaching the Packers. However, I correctly picked the Steelers to outlast the Ravens, and I was just one point away from correctly predicting the score from Bills-Patriots. A record of 8-6 from Week 8 is above .500, but disappointing considering half the season is over. Week 9 is my chance to improve and perhaps eclipse the 10 win mark for the first time in about a month.
This week's slate of games are enticing. Russell Wilson and the Seahawks fly across the country to take on the Buffalo Bills, Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens will take on the Indianapolis Colts, and the New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers will face off for the second time this season on Sunday Night Football. The games should be close, and my picks are bound to be spot on. It's a new week, and another chance for redemption.
Here are my records from this season:
Week 8 record: 8-6
Regular season record: 76-42-1
Lock of the Week record: 5-3
BYES: Bengals, Browns, Eagles, Rams
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| Packers @ 49ers |
When the 49ers take on the Packers this Thursday night in a rematch of the NFC Championship, not a single offensive player who touched the ball will be on the field this time around. Jimmy Garappolo is out indefinitely, George Kittle is on injured reserve alongside Raheem Mostert, who scored 4 touchdowns in the NFC Championship. Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and Tevin Coleman will also miss the game. Nick Mullens will be thrust back into the starting job for San Fran, with the tall task of making do with what he has. JaMycal Hasty will be the number one back, while Ross Dwelley and Trent Taylor become the primary targets in the passing game. That is not the offense you want going up against the Packers' highest scoring offense. The 49ers will hope that Hasty can find an early rhythm and dominate the ground game as they did in the playoffs last season. But this team is not the same as it was 10 months ago.
It was a forgettable day at the office for the Packers, but they have an opportunity to bounce back not only with a win, but a revenge win over the team that ended their Super Bowl hopes in 2019. The Packers were slower and less tuned in than the Vikings, and that was ultimately the X-factor. Matt LeFleur will not be out-coached this week by Kyle Shanahan, considering the starvation of weapons in San Francisco. Aaron Rodgers is right behind Russell Wilson in the MVP race, and another prominent showing will keep his name in the race. He is zoned in with Davante Adams, who has a combined 20 catches, 249 yards, and 5 touchdowns in his last 2 games. Adams is unguardable.
The Packers have an opportunity to exercise some demons this Thursday, against a banged up 49ers team on life support. Not to mention Rodgers has not forgotten the day the 49ers passed on him for Alex Smith in 2005. Rodgers will be the story of the night, and the Packers will bounce back.
Prediction: Packers 27, 49ers 13
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| Seahawks @ Bills |
Game of the Week in Buffalo.
The Seahawks ran rampant over the 49ers last week thanks to 4 touchdown passes from Russell Wilson, and a dominant showing from D.K. Metcalf. The offense runs through either Metcalf or Tyler Lockett any given week, but Wilson is poised to spread the ball out all game long against the Bills. Metcalf will likely match up against Tre'Davious White. While White is an All-Pro corner and one of the game's best, Metcalf is too physical, too big, and too fast to be guarded. Wilson could look in his direction every snap and scorch Buffalo's defense for four quarters. Cris Carson may return this week as well, which would be monumental for Seattle's rushing offense which currently runs through DeeJay Dallas. Buffalo surrendered 188 rushing yards last week, and the Seahawks can move the chains on the ground consistently with Carson, and Wilson can extend plays with his legs as well.
The Bills came out firing in September, but tempered down in October, and are seemingly back to the drawing board. However, the ground game proved to be unstoppable against the Patriots in a massive AFC East win. The Bills ran for 190 yards through Zack Moss and Devin Singletary, and the combination of the two should wreak havoc for the rest of 2020. Seattle's defense also sets the table for Josh Allen's potential bounce back game. Allen has 4 interceptions in his last 4 games, but the Seahawks defense is ranked bottom in the NFL in yards allowed this season. Stefon Diggs will be licking his lips when he studies the film this week, and should be busy all afternoon. Cole Beasley will continue to be reliable in the slot, while John Brown's presence could take the top off Seattle's secondary. The Bills offense is loaded, and they are primed to explode on Sunday and escape from their October funk.
Seattle is on fire, and Russell Wilson seemingly cannot be stopped. Josh Allen and the Bills have slowed down and are trying to revert back to their September form, but picking them in this spot is a bit frisky. The Seahawks are dependable, and barring a miraculous performance by the Bills defense compiled with Josh Allen's best game of the season, the Seahawks will come out on top.
Prediction: Seahawks 31, Bills 24
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| Ravens @ Colts |
Lamar Jackson was stymied against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The reigning MVP was shut down, completing 13 for 28 passes, 208 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 2 picks, while rushing 16 times for just 65 yards. Jackson is not running amok any longer, and he is being forced to win with his arm. The Ravens are being forced out of their element, and winning in new ways. The Colts are a staunch defensive matchup for Baltimore, but the Ravens have an opportunity to overrun Indianapolis with the run game. J.K. Dobbins rushed for a career high 113 yards on 15 carries, with Gus Edwards rushing for 87 yards against the Steelers. A strong running game, no turnovers, and an efficient passing performance will be enough for the Ravens to reassert their dominance.
The Colts second ranked defense will have something to say to Lamar Jackson. A defense which allows under 300 yards per game and fewer than 80 on the ground has a stellar chance of matching up with the running-est team in football. On offense, the Colts could be exploited. Philip Rivers loves to toss a pick or two, and the Ravens are one of the most opportunistic defenses around. The edge with Calais Campbell and Yannick Ngakuoe will be deadly, and the linebacking core led by the rookie Patrick Queen has been stellar. Jonathan Taylor and Jordan Wilkins become crucial components to a Colts win, if the Colts can match Baltimore's efficiency on the ground and keep Rivers from making a back-breaking mistake.
This would make for a blockbuster playoff game. With everything at stake, this should be a barnburner. The Ravens are too strong to drop back to back games, and Rivers could prove be a thorn for his own side once again with a few turnovers. Ravens win.
Prediction: Ravens 29, Colts 17
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| Panthers @ Chiefs |
Pat Mahomes and the Chiefs steamrolled the New York Jets and predictably so. The Panthers are much stingier, but the Chiefs stack up to carve them up as well. The duo of Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Le'Veon Bell should combine for a strong performance, with the Panthers giving up over 124 rushing yards per game. The running game must find its feet with Bell in the fold at this point for the offense to settle in and form its identity before the playoffs. If the running game stalls, or if Andy Reid prefers the pass, that will do just fine against the Panthers secondary. Travis Kelce is Mahomes' safety cushion and Tyreek Hill took the top off the Jets defense last week. The Chiefs are too fast, too explosive, and too talented. The scoreboard operator at Arrowhead will be busy, and Mahomes could be in for another vintage Mahomes afternoon.
Just when the Panthers take one step forward, they take two steps backwards. After taking the Saints down to the wire, the Panthers dropped a divisional game to the Falcons. The offense slowed down and could not extend drives all night long. The game changer this weekend will be Cristian McCaffrey. The most productive back in football last season is back this week, and he will open up Carolina's offense substantially. Teddy Bridgewater has a safety blanket on every snap, and McCaffrey can pick up yards after the catch and leave the likes of Robby Anderson and D.J. Moore one-on-one. The Chiefs defense has been staunch of late, and they will not make it easy for Carolina. But McCaffrey changes everything.
The Chiefs are on fire, and Mahomes is hitting his stride in 2020. McCaffrey or no McCaffrey, the Panthers are going to struggle slowing down the Super Bowl champs. This is my Lock of the Week.
Prediction: Panthers 17, Chiefs 34
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| Bears @ Titans |
The Titans have hit a wall. Two straight defeats to the AFC North have the Titans at 5-2 at the midseason mark. There's no reason to fear, but the Titans need to rebound against the Bears. Derrick Henry continued to shred the opponent's rushing defense with 112 yards on the ground, but the Titans defense must stiffen up against Nick Foles and crew. The Bears offensive line has struggled, so the Titans can pressure Foles up the middle and shut the run game down. Ryan Tannehill can spread the Bears secondary out with Corey Davis and A.J. Brown becoming a formidable receiving duo, but the team must avoid turnovers at all costs this week.
Nick Foles and the Bears pushed the Saints all the way to 5 quarters, but fell short in the end. The offensive line can't protect Foles, the running game is stalling, and the quarterback play has been up and down all year. With Derrick Henry on the other side, the running game becomes crucial for Chicago, with David Montgomery likely needing to keep up with Henry's stat line to keep Chicago in the game. If the Bears start quickly, and Foles is dishing it out to Allen Robinson and Darnell Mooney, they can mitigate the Titans' high octane rushing attack and control the tempo. If they fall behind quickly, the game may fall out of reach quickly too.
Fair play to the Bears, who play opportunistically and fight for four quarters. But the Titans are too strong and too talented. They will buck their losing streak, while Chicago's will extend.
Prediction: Bears 20, Titans 28
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| Lions @ Vikings |
The Vikings registered arguably the most confusing win of 2020 with their upset victory over the Packers. Dalvin Cook recorded 4 touchdowns and 226 scrimmage yards in his return from injury, blowing the Packers out of the water by halftime. The Vikings are poised to build on this momentum against the Lions, and continue to ride Cook to another victory. In the win over Green Bay, Kirk Cousins was capped to just 14 pass attempts, and completed 11 of them for 160 yards. Mike Zimmer knows Cousins is struggling, but they will have to bring him out of his shell to be competitive. Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson is one of the best one-two punches on the outside in football, and they could be in for a track meet if Cousins is on target.
Over in Detroit, 2020 is having an unfair trickle effect on their season after a horrific few days. Matthew Stafford has been placed on the COVID-19 reserve list, along with Kenny Golladay and T.J. Hockenson. Chase Daniel will be thrust into the starting QB role against the Vikings, and will have to carry the Lions offense in Stafford's absence. Marvin Jones becomes the focal point of the aerial attack, but D'Andre Swift is the focal point of the game plan. Swift has had an excellent rookie campaign, but he will become the engine of Detroit's offensive attack. If he struggles, Daniel will struggle.
The Lions are stuck between a rock and a hard place, and the odds are stacked against them without Stafford. Dalvin Cook is primed for another breakout game and he will lead Minnesota to another divisional win.
Prediction: Lions 8, Vikings 28
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| Giants @ Football Team |
Just when the Giants trick you into believing they are turning the corner, turnovers unravel their momentum. Daniel Jones threw 2 interceptions against the Bucs to allow Tampa to shift the momentum and come from behind to win. Jones must protect the ball this week to give the Giants a chance to win just their second game of 2020. The running game improved in Week 8, and the Giants can build on their 101 rushing total from last week. Jones can find Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton in space, and make it a long day for the Football Team defense. But one turnover could turn the tide entirely for the Giants as it has all season.
In case your memory is shaky, Washington defeated the Cowboys two weeks ago before their bye week. The Football Team ran rampant on the Cowboys for 208 rushing yards, and they were stellar in the red zone. The Giants defense is not as putrid as the Cowboys, so Washington will not move the ball nearly as efficiently. The key is a strong running game nonetheless, which can succeed with Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic splitting the carries. A turnover free game compiled with proficiency in the red zone should be enough to carry Washington over the line. If they snag a pick or two from Daniel Jones, they are in prime position.
The Football Team was a two-point conversion away from defeating the Giants in Week 6. This time around, in FedEx Field, the Football Team should earn their third win of the season, and firmly cement themselves in the NFC East conversation.
Prediction: Giants 17, Football Team 20
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| Broncos @ Falcons |
In the history of Atlanta's beautiful Mercedes-Benz Stadium, the Falcons are 1-5 against the AFC, with their only win coming against the Jags last season. They are coming off an impressive road win over the Panthers, which was gritty, and reminiscent of Dan Quinn's Falcons at their best. The Falcons can reassert their offensive dominance against the Broncos and rattle two straight wins if Julio Jones continues to tear it up. Jones has 23 receptions for 371 yards in the past three weeks, truly coming into his own in 2020. Jones will be Matt Ryan's number one target once again, and the speed of Calvin Ridley on the other side could be too much for the Broncos secondary to overcome. If Todd Gurley can become a component of the passing game out of the backfield, the Falcons will be set.
The Broncos season is very much alive, but stagnating at 3-4. Their 17 point comeback over the Chargers is remarkably impressive and could be a pivotal momentum shift in their season. Drew Lock rallied the troops and was spot on in the second half. Going into Atlanta, the running game will be key. The Broncos ran for 108 yards on the ground against the Chargers, but backs carried the ball just 16 times. The running game cannot be buried early, it must be established early to keep the Falcons defense on their heels. It also alleviates Lock from tossing another back-breaking interception. Melvin Gordon and Philip Lindsay combine to be the heartbeat of the Denver offense, and they must combine for more than 16 carries.
If the Broncos are seriously going to contend for a playoff spot, they have to win games like these. The Falcons defense has withered like a feather all season, and they have written up a new way to lose every single week. Knowing the Falcons, this will be tight until the end. But I am banking on a Broncos squad looking at an emotional letdown in Atlanta.
Prediction: Broncos 23, Falcons 27
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| Texans @ Jaguars |
Houston returns from their bye week at 1-6, with their season virtually over. They have an opportunity to sweep Jacksonville and snatch their second win of 2020, which looks promising. The Jaguars have been tailspinning for weeks, losing six straight. Deshaun Watson can come out firing and put the Jaguars away quickly, especially if David Johnson finds space to run early on. It is imperative for the Texans to keep Watson upright, otherwise the game plan blows up for Houston. Keeping Watson upright buys him time to find Brandin Cooks and Will Fuller in space, who are having phenomenal individual campaigns.
Reports during the week told us that Gardner Minshew has multiple injuries in his right thumb which will sideline him for the next few weeks. With Minshew out, it's Jake Futon time. The 2020 sixth round pick out of Oregon State will see his first NFL action against the Texans. Unless Futon is a duplicate of Minshew, he is in for a long afternoon. The speed of the game will be overwhelming when he sees J.J. Watt line up on the other side of the ball. James Robinson will be Futon's best friend, but the Texans are likely to mount an early lead and force Robinson out of the game early. If Futon drops back more than 25 times in the contest, Watt and crew can tee off on the young quarterback and blow the game up entirely. Robinson has an opportunity to gash Houston's defense which ranks 31st against the run, and keep the Texans offense at bay and on the sideline.
The gap between these two 1-6 squads is considerable and disparate. The Texans will win, and Deshaun Watson will be the story of the box score. Jake Futon will have a rude awakening, because he is just not prepared for what could be coming.
Prediction: Texans 24, Jaguars 9
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| Raiders @ Chargers |
The Raiders scraped by the Browns in a low scoring affair, 16-6. Derek Carr mustered just 116 passing yards, as Josh Jacobs carried the ball a jaw-dropping 31 times. The Raiders are a run-first team. The Chargers rank 25th against the run, boding for a potential breakout game for Jacobs. If Jacobs is busy and productive, Carr can burn the Chargers secondary on play-action and find the speedy Henry Ruggs, or throw to the dependable Darren Waller. The Raiders offense will likely be in a track meet with Herbert and crew, so he will have to slow the game down with Jacobs in the backfield and put the ball on target when he puts his receivers in space.
Divisional road contests are always a battle in the AFC West, but the Raiders have to win this game as a playoff hopeful. But the Chargers are a high octane offense, and Justin Herbert is poised to bounce back. The Chargers will catch the Raiders off guard this week and snatch a crucial win.
Prediction: Raiders 20, Chargers 28
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| Dolphins @ Cardinals |
Tua Tagovailoa's NFL debut was...interesting. Individually, Tua was mediocre. He completed 12 f 22 passes for 93 yards, and lost a fumble. The Dolphins won by 11 nonetheless, because of 4 forced turnovers, a scoop and score, and a punt return touchdown. Miami won the game on 3 sides of the ball, and it led them to their fourth win in their last five games. Good stuff. The Cardinals pose one of Miami's stiffest tests yet. With Myles Gaskin out with an ankle sprain, Matt Breida becomes the number one back. Devante Parker likely will line up against Patrick Peterson all afternoon. The Rams were able to keep Tua at bay, and Arizona will be in a position to do the same. The problem is the defense and special teams will not explode back to back weeks.
It's been two weeks since Arizona's overtime win over Seattle, putting the Cardinals at 5-2 and 2-0 in the NFC West. Kyler Murray racked 427 scrimmage yards and 4 total touchdowns, maybe his best game yet as a pro. Against a mediocre Miami defense, Murray will be in the spotlight once again, and the running game will be key. In Kenyan Drake's absence, Chase Edmonds has been prolific and will continue to flourish. DeAndre Hopkins is on a tear this season, already with 57 catches and 704 yards on the season. The Cardinals offense is beginning to bloom, and this is the time for Arizona to kick into high gear. If they can put the pressure on Tagovailoa on the other side, congest the pocket, and press Devante Parker, the Cardinals will be in a great spot.
The Dolphins proved they are not to be underestimated with their win over the Rams. A West Coast trip to face the Cardinals is a considerable test. Arizona stacks up beautifully to move the ball on Miami all game long, and move to 6-2.
Prediction: Dolphins 19, Cardinals 27
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| Steelers @ Cowboys |
Heading towards mid November, the Steelers remain perfect. They sealed the deal with a last gasp goal line stand over the Ravens, and sit at 7-0. The Steelers offense was far from impressive, however. The running game stalled for just 48 total yards, putting Ben Roethlisberger in the spotlight. But with a matchup against the Dallas Cowboys, the Steelers are primed to bounce back and blow up Jerry's World's scoreboard. The Cowboys rank bottom in rushing yards allowed and points allowed per game. James Conner is poised to break out, and the offensive stars including Juju Smith Schuster and the rising stars like Chase Claypool are bound for a high volume of targets and explosive plays. The Cowboys have been unable to slow any opposing offense down all season, and the Steelers have thee personnel to maintain the status quo.
In Dallas, quarterback continues to be at the center of attention. Rookie Ben DiNucci will not make his second career start on Sunday after completing half of his pass attempts for 180 yards, while taking 4 sacks and fumbling twice in Philly. The Cowboys will go with either Garrett Gilbert or Cooper Rush at QB versus the Steelers, to mitigate the lack of experience with DiNucci. Purely not determining if the starter will be Gilbert or Rush is horrific, which will only hold the Cowboys offense back going into this week. Ezekiel Elliott will definitely feature heavily and see a high volume of carries, but the likes of Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and Michael Gallup may be left hanging most of the day. Whoever starts for the Cowboys will be thrown into an engulfing fire that is known as the Steelers defense. The Steelers rank second in takeaways and first in sacks, boding horribly for the Cowboys signal caller.
This is an epic mismatch which will reflect on the scoreboard. The Steelers are rolling while the Cowboys are still reeling from Prescott's season-ending injury. When it's all said and done, Cowboys fans will be desperate to see Andy Dalton return.
Prediction: Steelers 33, Cowboys 14
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| Saints @ Buccaneers |
Game 2 of Bucs-Saints, Brady versus Brees. With half the season in the books, the scope of the NFC South is remarkably different than how it was when the season kicked off between these two in Week 1.
The Saints beat their divisional rivals in Week 1 by a 34-23 scoreline off of turnovers. Brady threw 2 picks in his debut in Bucs colors, and the Saints played protective, efficient offense, carrying them over the line. Alvin Kamara has been dominant this season, but Drew Brees has looked more and more washed by the week. He struggles to throw the ball beyond 12 yards downfield. If Michael Thomas finally returns in Week 9, Thomas becomes a prominent threat the Bucs have to account for. Without Thomas, the Bucs will fancy their chances of shutting down Emmanuel Sanders and Tre'Quan Smith. Kamara will not be able to touch the ball 30-40 times this week in a Saints win. Brees must spread the ball out, and keep Tampa Bay's number three ranked defense honest.
The Bucs rallied to beat the Giants on Monday night, and Tom Brady and the offense stepped up when it needed to. Mike Evans and Rob Gronkowski are becoming an unstoppable aerial combination outside, with their physicality and ball awareness. Ronald Jones will have a predominant role, and the Bucs will hope they can run the ball with more efficiency than their Week 1 match. Tom Brady must avoid turnovers this time around, but with 8 games as a Buccaneer under his belt now, he should be comfortable protecting the football. The Bucs defense will have to flip the script and steal a possession or two from Brees and the Saints to put themselves over the top. If the Bucs stop Kamara on the ground and pressure Brees through the middle, the game plays right into the hands of the Bucs.
While the two leading passers in NFL history will be on the field this Sunday night, the game will be about the defenses. The defense that makes the decisive plays in the second half will come away with the win. The Buccaneers are firing on all cylinders on both sides of the ball. Their defense can shut down Brees, and Brady will be lethal in his second matchup with the Saints. The Bucs will take it.
Prediction: Saints 20, Buccaneers 31
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| Patriots @ Jets |
Last season, the Patriots creamed the Jets twice with stellar defense. The Patriots will need similar output defensively on Monday to put Newton and the offense in a position to succeed. The Jets offense could not muster up anything in Arrowhead last week, in a contest where the Jets defense was able to keep Pat Mahomes at bay consistently. Frank Gore is bound to be snuffed right away, but the Patriots just gave up 190 rushing yards to the Bills. If Gore finds running room, the Patriots defense may be left on their heels. Braxton Berrios and Denzel Mims will be Sam Darnold's favorite targets, but Belichick is bound to shut them down pretty early to force Darnold into congested pockets and errant throws.
This is a must-win for the Patriots. Against the wailing Jets, this should be easy money. But anything has been easy money for the Patriots in 2020. It could be sweaty, but will be comfortable in the end.
Prediction: Patriots 27, Jets 14
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