2020 Week 10 Predix: AFC South Showdown in Tennessee, Rookie QBs Face Off in Miami

Courtesy of Tennessee Titans

Written by Sam DeCoste

We have reached double digit weeks in the 2020 NFL season. It has been a half-season full of COVID scares, surprise packages, and entertaining last second finishes. In Week 9, I finished one game better than my Week 8 output, going 9-5. My notable miscues came from the Seahawks loss to the Bills, the Chargers' last second loss to the Raiders, and the Buccaneers' blowout defeat to the Saints. A 9-5 record is great, but it could be better, and I intend on improving in Week 10. 

Week 10 kicks off with a bang on Thursday night, with an AFC South showdown between the Colts and Titans. Sunday features a heavy slate of high octane matchups, including the Bills taking on the Cardinals, the Seahawks battling the Rams, and a matchup of rookie quarterbacks in Miami between the Chargers and Dolphins. 

Here are my records from this season:

Week 9 record: 9-5

Regular season record: 85-47-1

Lock of the Week record: 6-3

Colts @ Titans

Despite the win last week, the Titans are in a funk. Two defeats before last week, plus Derrick Henry rushing for just 68 yards on 21 carries. Henry is the engine that makes this offense go, and he needs to find more room to run on Thursday night to take down the number one ranked defense in the NFL. The Colts only allow 84 yards per game on the ground, and will feel confident they can slow Henry down. But the Titans will not be scared, and they will feed Henry early and often. The run game will open passing lanes for Ryan Tannehill, with A.J. Brown and Corey Davis on the outside. Even if Henry is slowed down early, Tannehill can still burn the Colts secondary with the weapons on tap. 

A Colts upset win on the road must begin with a clean game. No turnovers. No fumbles, interceptions, or turnovers on downs. The Colts mustered just 10 points on offense in Week 9, and were completely smothered by the Ravens defense. All season long, the Colts have lacked a home run threat on the offense, a back or receiver who can take the top off the secondary. If T.Y. Hilton returns on Thursday night, he might be the only one who can do that for Indianapolis right now. Jordan Wilkins and Jonathan Taylor are a solid running back combination, but none of them carried the ball more than 11 times in Week 9. Philip Rivers must be accurate and careful with the football this week, and find Michael Pittman, Jr. and Zach Pascal with more efficiency. If the Colts trail early, the game could unravel quickly if Henry runs amok. Rivers will need to keep up. 

The Titans are just too overpowered. They are the best team in the AFC South, and the scoreline will show that. This is my Lock of the Week.

Prediction: Colts 16, Titans 28

Texans @ Browns

The Houston Texans are undefeated against football teams based in Jacksonville, Florida this season. But they are winless against everyone else. Against the Browns, it likely that David Johnson will not suit up after going down with a concussion in Week 9. Duke Johnson will start and see plenty of action out of the back field to offset Cleveland's pass rush led by Myles Garrett. Houston allows 3 sacks per game this season, and Deshaun Watson has taken a beating in the pocket all season long. Watson has been hitting his stride lately, and the likes of Will Fuller and Brandin Cooks are tearing it up. Each match up well with the Browns secondary, and should be busy in the air attack. They should be able to mount points, but with Myles Garrett lurking, it could be a long day for the Texans signal caller. 

The Browns took Week 9 off after a disappointing 16-6 loss to the Raiders. With the injuries mounting up, the bye week came at a great time for Cleveland. Baker Mayfield will start after being removed from the COVID-19/Reserve list, and will look to come out firing after a up and down first half of the season. Without Odell Beckham, Jr. for the rest of the season, Mayfield's capabilities as a quarterback are going to be tested. He rallied the Browns over the Bengals three weeks ago, but mustered only 122 passing yards against the Raiders. If Nick Chubb is back this week, that is a game-changer. Chubb and Kareem Hunt combine for the best one-two punch at the running back position, and they can be Mayfield's safety blankets all game long. With Jarvis Landry the only noteworthy name in the receiving room, the running game will be Cleveland's bread and butter in Week 10.

If the Browns are caught sleeping, they are on upset alert. The Texans have the speed out wide and the prolific quarterback to surprise everyone this week. But the return of Nick Chubb comes at just the right time. The Browns will move to 6-3, and itch closer towards a Wild Card spot. 

Prediction: Texans 20, Browns 23

Buccaneers @ Panthers

For the first time in Tom Brady's career, he has been swept by a divisional opponent. The Saints are the standard in the NFC South, and the Bucs now have to play catch-up with half the season remaining. But like Week 1, the Bucs play the Panthers following a defeat to the Saints. Brady will not throw 3 interceptions again, he will protect the football and move the ball down the field with efficiency. Bruce Arians will preach the running game after totaling just 5 carries against the Saints. Ronald Jones will be busy early, and the Bucs will hope to slow the game down on the ground. Out wide, Antonio Brown and Mike Evans will inevitably be open on every passing play, and will make it easy for Brady to find them in space. The Bucs offense will score many more points than they did last week.

With half the season left, the Panthers will not go down without putting up a fight. At 3-6, their season is on life support, but they have played phenomenal football in 2020. The Panthers had the Super Bowl champions on the ropes in Week 9, but ultimately fell 33-31. Teddy Bridgewater played maybe his best game ever as a pro, throwing for 310 yards and 2 touchdowns. It hurts that Cristian McCaffrey is going to miss this week's game after picking up another injury, but Mike Davis proved he can carry the load himself. Curtis Samuel and Robby Anderson have been stellar on the outside. It is likely Bridgewater will be active through the air again, with the Bucs' rushing defense looking to stifle Davis right away. The passing attack will have to match the output of Brady's high octane Bucs offense. Bridgewater is capable and is the league's fifth leading passer, but the Panthers have shown they have been unable to seal the deal against the league's best teams this season.

The Panthers have been involved in 7 one-score contests in 2020, and are 2-5 in those games. They have the capability to keep themselves in the game against Tampa, but the Bucs are too powerful. The Bucs will not flame out back-to-back weeks. 

Prediction: Buccaneers 24, Panthers 23

Football Team @ Lions

After a COVID scare during the week, the Lions were blasted by the Vikings on the road. Matthew Stafford threw 2 interceptions and had to leave the game for Chase Daniel in the second half. Stafford appears slated to return, which is pivotal. Stafford is the only hope the Lions have of making a miraculous playoff run, and he must be available to keep the Lions in the hunt. With the Football Team in town, the running game should be top priority. D'Andre Swift has slowed down of late, but has quietly been one of the most productive rookies in football this season. With Kenny Golladay out for an extended period of time, Swift has to carry the load. Marvin Jones and T.J. Hockenson have also played very well in the past few weeks, and will be prominent red zone threats all game long.

Last week, Washington saw Kyle Allen exit with a season-ending injury, thrusting Alex Smith back into the starting position. Against the Giants, it was ugly. Smith tossed 3 interceptions in a losing effort with the lead in the NFC East in touching distance. That can't happen. Ron Rivera also has to run the ball more than just 9 times. Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic have been one of the league's best one-two punches from the backfield, and they can give the Lions defense headaches with more attempts. That can calm Smith down from being erratic with the football, and let the Football Team have a fighting chance to sustain offense against the Lions.

Washington fights to the end, and they will give the Lions everything they have. But the Lions passing attack could overwhelm the Football Team, and Alex Smith won't have the answers to keep up. The Lions will claw to 4-5.

Prediction: Football Team 17, Lions 24

Jaguars @ Packers

Aaron Rodgers kicked off Week 9 with a vintage Aaron Rodgers performance. Against a banged up 49ers team, Rodgers threw for 305 yards and 4 touchdowns, whilst Davante Adams popped off for another standout performance. With the Jaguars in town, it should simply be more of the same. Davante Adams is shredding opposing corners on a weekly basis, and is bound to catch 10-plus passes for 150-plus yards for the fourth straight week. This method of winning may be unsustainable, but the Packers can slowly bring Aaron Jones back into the fold with this matchup as well. Jones can reintegrate himself into the offense while Jamal Williams sits on the COVID-19 list, and Rodgers can do his thing. 

Gardner Minshew will miss his second consecutive game due to a sprained ligament and multiple fractures in his thumb. His replacement, Jake Luton, played pretty well against the Texans in Week 9. Luton threw for over 300 yards with one touchdown and an interception. He may inevitably drop back 40-plus times this week going up against Aaron Rodgers, but the Jaguars have to see that it doesn't happen like that. James Robinson may see aa heavy dosage of carries early on to keep Rodgers on the sideline, but that will only work for so long. Luton will be put into a deficit, and he will have to keep the Jaguars in the game. But it will only tailspin from there.

The Packers are the far superior team in every category. This one should not be close.

Prediction: Jaguars 10, Packers 31

Eagles @ Giants

In the year 2020, a matchup between the 3-4-1 Philadelphia Eagles and the 2-7 New York Giants matters. First place in the NFC East is on the line. 

On October 22, the Eagles defeated the Giants 22-21 after a fourth quarterback comeback. Carson Wentz played arguably at his best in that game, throwing for 359 yards in the comeback. Boston Scott was outstanding and caught the game-winning touchdown as well. In an offense which has been banged up all season, the role players must come to the forefront. Travis Fulgham, Greg Ward, Jr., and John Hightower. Wentz has these three as his top receivers to work with, and they have to find separation to make it easy on Wentz. On the other side, the Eagles defense ranks third in sacks this season, and they can dial up pressure all game long and shut down New York's offense with their pass rush.

The Giants are undefeated against teams who play in Washington, D.C. this season, but winless against everyone else. A win over Philly would be hugely significant, and could turn the tide in New York's horrific start to the season. Again, the Giants' hopes hinge on a turnover-less game from quarterback Daniel Jones. The Giants rank fourth in giveaways this season with 15, and they cannot afford to turn the ball over in this one. The Giants must also protect Jones in the pocket and prevent the Eagles defensive line from disrupting the passing game. Jones cannot extend plays outside the pocket, otherwise it is a turnover or sack waiting to happen. Wayne Gallman has to be involved early to slow Philly's pass rush down, and allow Jones to breathe in the pocket for as long as he can.

Considering how close this one was in Week 7, we should expect another close contest. Although the Giants nearly earned the win three weeks ago, the Eagles are 13-2 against the Giants since 2013, including 6-1 at MetLife Stadium. The Eagles own this divisional rivalry, and despite their banged up state, should have enough to escape with another pivotal divisional victory.

Prediction: Eagles 24, Giants 13

Bills @ Cardinals

In Week 9, Josh Allen out-dueled Russell Wilson. Allen tied a career high with 415 passing yards and 3 touchdowns, and led the Bills to a signature 44-34 win over the Seahawks. It was remarkably impressive, and now they take on the number one offense in football, the Arizona Cardinals. Allen will have to be at the top of his game once again and lead an offense firing on all cylinders to pull off back-to-back upsets. The running game will definitely see more carries after just 19 running plays against thee Seahawks. Arizona gives up 126 yards per game on the ground, which makes Devin Singletary and Zach Moss candidates for breakout games. Stefon Diggs is also the NFL's leader in receiving yards and receptions this season, and he will be targeted early and often. With such a dominant showing on offense in Week 9, you would expect the Bills to be at the top of their game once again.

After losing to the Dolphins in Week 9, the Cardinals will look to bounce back and avoid back-to-back defeats to the AFC East. Kyler Murray was phenomenal, tallying 389 yards of offense and 4 touchdowns, but it wasn't enough for an Arizona win. He will certainly have room to run against the Bills rushing defense, and the Bills secondary can certainly be exploited as well. DeAndre Hopkins will feel confident about his matchup with Tre'Davious White if the All-Pro corner is healthy this weekend, after their matchup in last season's Wild Card playoff game. If Kenyan Drake is ready to go as well, the Cardinals rushing attack is opened up even more. Murray will have to spread the ball out all game long with Allen likely to be doing the same, and be on target all afternoon. 

This one should be fun. In a matchup of young quarterbacks and explosive high-scoring offenses, the Bills are favorites. As long as Josh Allen can build on his Week 9 performance and burn a Cardinals defense thwarted by a rookie quarterback last week, the Bills will see this one out. 

Prediction: Bills 31, Cardinals 21

Chargers @ Dolphins

Tua Tagovailoa's NFL debut was...okay. His second game very impressive. Tua led his team to a comeback win over the Arizona Cardinals on the road, throwing for 248 yards and 2 touchdowns, with Salvon Ahmed as his leading rusher. With the Chargers in town, the Dolphins are feeling hot after 4 straight wins. Even at 2-6, the Chargers are much better than their record suggests. If Joey Bosa is active, Tagovailoa could be in for a true NFL awakening. The Dolphins will hope to slow the game down to keep the Chargers led by Justin Herbert at bay. The running game will need to produce more than 92 yards, and must be led by Jordan Howard or Salvon Ahmed, not the quarterback. That being said, Tagovailoa can extend plays with his legs and make it a long day for the Chargers defense. 

In 2020, the Chargers have lost 6 games by a total of just 24 points. This team has potential to be a winner if they can bear down in the fourth quarter. Justin Herbert continues to shine as a rookie and is enjoying the best season of all the rookie quarterbacks so far. The Dolphins defense will not be able to slow him down, but they can slow down the running game. The likes of Kalen Ballage and Joshua Kelley could be shut down very early, forcing Herbert to do it all himself through the air. But the receiving core thoroughly outmatches the Dolphins secondary. If Herbert is on target from the first quarter, Keenan Allen is creating consistent separation, and Mike Williams is dominating Xavien Howard on the outside, the Chargers could roll the Fins over.

Both franchises will hope that their rookie quarterbacks dominate the NFL for years to come, and that this is only the beginning of a hotly contested rivalry. On the day, the Chargers are much more talented, and Herbert is surrounded by more weapons than his counterpart in Miami. If the Chargers can put an end to their horrid streak of bad luck, they should snatch the win. 

Prediction: Chargers 27, Dolphins 20

Broncos @ Raiders

The Raiders are in the thick of the AFC playoff race. With a win over the Broncos, the Raiders would move to 6-3. Against the Broncos, the Raiders matriculate approach could work for them. Josh Jacobs can take over the game with 20-plus carries and wear out the Broncos defense, allowing Henry Ruggs to run free on the outside, and Darren Waller to dominate as a safety blanket option all game long. Derek Carr has played efficient football all season, and just needs to do more of the same against the Broncos to lead the offense over the line.

The Broncos continue to spiral at 3-5, and their loss to the Falcons a week ago is a devastating one. Drew Lock completed just over half his pass attempts and turned the ball over once, and the offense could not keep up with the Falcons. The running game also yielded just 41 yards from Philip Lindsay and Melvin Gordon. The engine of the Broncos offense is the duo of Lindsay and Gordon. If the other team mounts an insurmountable lead, or if the opposing defense shuts the two down, the Denver offense loses its steam. Denver needs to run the ball with authority to start the game, or the game will unravel quickly. 

These AFC West rivals are trending in remarkably different directions, and the Raiders are poised to continue their winning run. 

Prediction: Broncos 20, Raiders 28

Seahawks @ Rams

The Seahawks just got blasted by the Buffalo Bills, and now play their second straight road game. For the Seahawks to bounce back and defeat a team with a winning record for the first time in 2020, Russell Wilson has to be stellar. No sacks, no turnovers, and no mistakes from the quarterback. That way of winning is unsustainable, especially going up against a Rams defense led by Aaron Donald. The Seahawks will surely not turn the ball over 4 times like last week, and the offense will pick it back up. But the Seattle secondary is bound to be torched just like last week, which bodes horrifically.

After the bye week, the Rams come in recharged and ready to earn a crucial NFC West victory. The last time we saw the Rams, they were defeated by the Dolphins 28-17 in a horrific performance on all three sides of the ball. If the Rams can protect Jared Goff in the pocket, the Rams offense will be fine. That could be potentially challenging with the Seahawks racking 7 sacks against the Bills last week, but the passing game will nonetheless be unstoppable. The Seahawks rank bottom in the league in total yards allowed, and they will not have any answers fo Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, or even Darrell Henderson. The Rams could score on their first possession and force Seattle to crawl itself out of a hole, and never look back.

While both teams are coming off a defeat in their last game, the Rams are the more well-rounded team. The Seahawks defense will not be able to stop the Rams, and Russell Wilson will not be able to do enough to overcome everything around him. Rams win.

Prediction: Seahawks 27, Rams 37

Bengals @ Steelers

In eight weeks, the Steelers have already matched their win total from last season. At 8-0, the Steelers are riding high and can knock off the Bengals and win their ninth straight. But as impressive as the record is, the win over Dallas a week ago was less than convincing. Ben Roethlisberger returned from the locker room after sustaining an injury to save the Steelers from a first half deficit to the Dallas Cowboys led by Garrett Gilbert. The Steelers under Mike Tomlin have a habit of playing down to their competition, and losing games they are not supposed to. It nearly happened in Dallas, but they got away with it in the end. If Roethlisberger is healthy, James Conner finds room to run, and the defense is at the top of its game, the Steelers will move to 9-0.

Two weeks ago, the Bengals defeated the Titans in impressive fashion. Joe Burrow was efficient, the receivers stepped up, and the defense locked down the Titans offense to force them in an insurmountable deficit early on. It will be tough to beat the Steelers coming out of their bye week, but they have the means to do it. But the Bengals must protect Burrow. The Bengals have allowed the third most sacks per game this season, and the Steelers rank first in sacks. That is a horrible formula for success. Joe Mixon will be paramount, and his production will dictate the outcome. The Steelers defense could smother Burrow all afternoon if the pass rush is at its best, and Burrow could be overwhelmed all game.

The status of Roethlisberger will be pivotal. Even if Mason Rudolph or Josh Dobbs starts for Pittsburgh, the Steelers defense is strong enough to blow the Bengals game plan up into flames. The Steelers will take it.

Prediction: Bengals 13, Steelers 24

49ers @ Saints

The award for most impressive win of the season goes to the New Orleans Saints, following their 38-3 demolition of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Saints wiped out the Bucs with the most complete performance from any team all season to this point. Taysom Hill featured heavily, Drew Brees was efficient through the air, and the ball was spread out very nicely. The Saints bode well against a banged up 49ers squad to stroll to 7-2. Now that Michael Thomas is back at last, the offense opens up even more. The likes of Adam Trautman, Tre'Quan Smith, and Marquez Callaway have stepped up big time for Brees, and with Thomas back and Kamara playing as the most dominant offensive player in football this year, the floodgates are wide open.

San Francisco's season is on life support. At 4-5, the 49ers could fill their own infirmary with the players on injured reserve. No Garappolo, no Mostert, no Kittle, and possibly no Samuel. Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk may return, but will be catching passes from Nick Mullens. JaMycal Hasty and Jerick McKinnon will split the carries in the backfield as well. Kyle Shanahan may be the best in the business at offensive scheming with what he has, but he has a tall task this week outscoring the Saints high scoring offense with Aiyuk as the number one wideout, and a shared backfield with Hasty and McKinnon. The 49ers defense is hamstrung as well, and Brees could carve them to pieces with Kamara and Thomas. 

Prediction: 49ers 17, Saints 28

Ravens @ Patriots

The Patriots saved their season on Monday night with a fourth quarter comeback win over the Jets. But the rest of the season, the Patriots face one of the league's toughest schedules. With the Ravens flying into Foxboro, Cam Newton needs to play like his 2015 self for the Pats to have any chance. The game plan begins with Damien Harris, who has emerged as New England's top running back. Baltimore is one of the stingier rushing defenses in the league, but the Pats will need to stick to it. If Newton is forced to drop back 40 times and throw to the likes of Damiere Byrd and Jacobi Myers all night, the Ravens pass rush will tee off and obliterate the Pats offense. A fast start is key for New England to pull off an upset.

Lamar Jackson is discovering the Ravens offense is becoming remarkably predictable to the rest of the NFL. The reigning MVP admitted opposing defenses are just calling their plays at the line of scrimmage. While the Ravens ran rampant over the Pats in 2019, they will need to mix it up this time around. J.K. Dobbins is emerging as a top back, and he can be the focal point of the Baltimore attack. But the likes of Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews must be utilized as well. Against the Colts, the two combined for just 6 catches and 60 yards. Jackson needs to give the ball to Baltimore's best players in space, which has been a weak point this year. The Patriots will not be able to cope with Baltimore's speed or explosiveness on offense, and if Lamar Jackson extends plays with his legs, they will have it all their own way. 

For the rest of the season, it is must-win mode for New England. But the Ravens are too strong to take a defeat to this Patriots squad. The Ravens will win comfortably, and Newton is bound for one of his worst games in a Pats uniform. 

Prediction: Ravens 27, Patriots 17

Vikings @ Bears

Suddenly, the Vikings are caught in an undesirable limbo between playoff contention and complete mediocrity. Dalvin Cook's return from injury has opened the floodgates for the Vikings offense. Cook amassed 226 scrimmage yards and 4 touchdowns against the Packers, and added on 206 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns against the Lions. When Cook is humming, the Vikings are unstoppable. But in the past 2 seasons, the Vikings have struggled against thee Bears. At Soldier Field, the Vikings lost 16-6 last season, and the offense was completely stifled. Cook has to run rampant to calm down Kirk Cousins, who has been errant as a passer this season. If Cook slows down, the Bears pass rush can tee off.

After starting 5-1, the Bears have lost 3 straight. As tumultuous as the past 3 weeks have been for Chicago, they played well against the Titans. The Bears defense allowed just 68 rushing yards to Derrick Henry in Week 9, which is a considerable feat. Nick Foles roared back in garbage time, throwing 335 yards and 2 touchdowns. The running game stalled once again, and it has to be a part of the game plan for the Bears to start fast. The Bears' losing streak can be attributed to their slow starts every week, and that starts with the running game which becomes stifled from the kickoff. The Vikings allow 125 rushing yards per game, so if there was a week for David Montgomery to have a breakout game, this is it. 

Chicago is 4-0 against Minnesota since 2018. If Dalvin Cook plays as well as he has the past two games, the Vikings have a shot. But the Bears know how to shut them down, and they should buck their losing streak on Monday night. 

Prediction: Vikings 9, Bears 21