Written by Sam DeCoste
We've made it to Thanksgiving, and football is still here. The AFC is building up to be the most competitive playoff race the NFL has seen in years, and the photo finishes are at an all-time high. Week 11 saw thrilling comeback wins for the Colts, Cowboys, and Chiefs, and standout performances from the Broncos, Saints, and Rams.
Unfortunately for me, I finished the week at 7-7. In a week of 11 games decided by one score, I finished 5-6 in picks. Many games could have turned out so differently if one play was extracted, but unfortunately, that's not how the NFL works. Football is a game of inches, and very narrow margins ultimately decide high stakes fates for all 32 teams. Week 12 feature all 32 teams, and it is an opportunity to start my own playoff push, and finish the 2020 season on a high note.
Happy Thanksgiving, everyone. Stay safe, and stay inside. Enjoy my picks, and enjoy the football.
Here are my records from this season:
Week 11 record: 7-7
Regular season record: 100-60-1
Lock of the Week record: 7-4
Texans @ Lions |
In a shocking turn of events, the Lions were shut out by a young Panthers squad starting a former XFL phenomenon at quarterback. It has to be one of the most disappointing performances by any team in the NFL this season. The Lions are hoping D'Andre Swift returns this week, as he is the team's most talented running back, and he is poised to shred Houston's horrific rush defense to pieces. Adrian Peterson would carry the rock in his place if Swift cannot suit up, but he lacks the explosiveness that Swift does that could wear the Texans down for four quarters. Kenny Golladay was limited in practice and could play on Thanksgiving, and his presence could stretch out Houston's secondary. But Detroit's shutout loss a week ago is incredibly discouraging.
The matchup of Matt Stafford and Deshaun Watson could be potentially exciting, and these rosters match up fairly evenly. But these teams are coming off remarkably different outcomes from Week 11, and Houston's momentum should carry forward into Turkey Day. The Texans will earn their second Thanksgiving win this week.
Prediction: Texans 27, Lions 17
Football Team @ Cowboys |
Washington hopes to sweep the Dallas Cowboys for the first time since 2012. In their Week 7 win over the Cowboys, Kyle Allen was the quarterback, and played an efficient, turnover-free game, sparkled with 2 touchdown passes. Antonio Gibson also carried the ball 20 times for 128 yards, which kept Dalton and the offense on the sideline for most of the afternoon and dominated the time of possession battle. Not to mention the Football Team has the highest ranked pass defense in the NFL this season, allowing under 200 passing yards per game. They may not be able to keep Dallas to just 59 passing yards like they were able to in Week 7, but if they keep the likes of Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper, and CeeDee Lamb at bay, they will have a shot.
Neither team has won back to back games all season, but the winner of this game will double their win total they had a week ago at this time, and they will be in the driver's seat. This game could go either way, and Washington proved they stack up beautifully against Dallas. But this is Thanksgiving, and the Cowboys offense could prove to be too overpowered for Washington this time around. It will be close, but the Cowboys will scrape away with a win.
Prediction: Football Team 21, Cowboys 23
Ravens @ Steelers |
The Steelers can potentially clinch a playoff spot this Sunday with a win and a loss for the Dolphins and Raiders. They stack up to blow the Ravens out of the water on defense. The Steelers forced 4 sacks and 4 turnovers in their Week 8 win in Baltimore, and more of the same could be coming this time around. A strong defensive performance opens the door to offensive domination as well. The offense is more explosive than it has been in years, with the emergence of Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool, while Eric Ebron and Juju Smith Schuster are prominent red zone threats themselves. As long as Ben Roethlisberger takes care of the football, and the defense tees off on Lamar Jackson, the Steelers will be set.
Even if the Ravens were fully healthy, the Steelers are the far better team in 2020. While the Ravens appear they may slip out of the playoffs, the Steelers are looking to cement themselves as a Super Bowl threat. This one won't be close.
Prediction: Ravens 10, Steelers 31
Titans @ Colts |
Tennessee's overtime win in Baltimore may have saved the Titans season. In a hotly contested AFC and divisional race in the South, Derrick Henry torpedoed Tennessee right back into playoff contention. Their hopes of winning the division hinge in Indianapolis, as a defeat to the Colts virtually cements their fate to be a Wild Card once again. Henry will carry the ball 20-plus times once again, but Tannehill must exceed his performance against the Colts from two games ago. The Colts shut him down, and forced Henry out of the game by the second half when the Titans trailed big. The Titans must keep up with the Colts and start fast, otherwise Henry will become obsolete once again.
The AFC South is on the line, and this should be a barnburner contest. When the dust settles, the Colts will prove once again they are the most balanced team in the division, and move closer to their first division title since 2014.
Prediction: Titans 20, Colts 24
Cardinals @ Patriots |
The Cardinals came close against the Seahawks, but the team faltered in the fourth quarter with conceding a safety and allowing a key sack to seal their defeat. Kyler Murray was efficient, Larry Fitzgerald saw a season high in receptions, while the running game stalled and the Seahawks defense was allowed to make the key plays down the stretch. The league's number one offense can light up the scoreboard at Gillette Stadium with a ground-heavy performance, leaning on Kenyan Drake and Chase Edmonds while Kyler Murray extends plays with his legs. DeAndre Hopkins will be busy once again, and his matchup against Stephon Gilmore is certainly exciting. But the Patriots defense has been slow and pedestrian all season, and the Cardinals are just so overpowered.
Underestimating the Patriots could prove costly, but the Cardinals have such a diverse attack led by Kyler Murray. They won't be stopped in Foxboro, and Cam Newton will not have the answers on offense to keep up. The Cardinals will win decisively.
Prediction: Cardinals 31, Patriots 17
Chargers @ Bills |
The home team is two weeks removed from the Hail Murray, and will look to return to the field playing angry. While Josh Allen continues to play at an MVP level, the running game must improve from their first half season performance. Devin Singletary and Zach Moss are primed to see season highs in carries, and they will look to keep the Chargers defense on their heels. The connection between Allen and Stefon Diggs has been one of the league's most prolific, and Diggs will see a high number of targets from the kickoff. If the Bills can run the ball with efficiency, and the Buffalo defense can overwhelm Herbert on the other side, they are set up to rebound from their defeat in Arizona.
Justin Herbert will keep it interesting, but Josh Allen will lay the hammer down when it is all said and done. Sean McDermott and the Bills are also undefeated after the bye week, and that streak will not die against the Chargers. Bills win. This is my Lock of the Week.
Prediction: Chargers 21, Bills 28
Raiders @ Falcons |
Against the Saints in Taysom Hill's first career start, the Falcons imploded. Matt Ryan turned the ball over twice, Todd Gurley was stuffed for 26 yards, and the offense was held to just 248 yards. The Falcons are poised to bounce back against the Raiders defense which was carved a week ago, albeit against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. The Raiders could find themselves stretched thin with Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley lining up, but role players like Russell Gage and Hayden Hurst have to step up for the Falcons to pull off an upset win. Stealing possessions from Derek Carr will also go a long way.
The Falcons can take the Raiders down to the wire if Matt Ryan is on his game. But the Raiders are well-coached, and the offense is beginning to hum. This is a game the Raiders are supposed to win, and they should. If not, their playoff hopes may dwindle.
Prediction: Raiders 30, Falcons 21
Panthers @ Vikings |
Kirk Cousins played arguably the best game of his 2020 season, completing 22 passes and throwing for 314 yards and 3 touchdowns. Albeit against the Dallas Cowboys defense, Cousins played a near perfect game and showed he doesn't have to solely rely on Dalvin Cook to perform well. Cook's midseason tear has certainly helped, and it has helped the Vikings be competitive this season. With McCaffrey potentially slated to return this week, Cook's production becomes even more important. Cook will see 20-plus touches once again, and Cousins faces a stiffer defense which just shut out their opponent. The receiving duo of Adam Theilen and Justin Jefferson are poised for a high volume of targets once again, and they can help Cousins shred Carolina's defense.
Neither squad is pegged as a formidable playoff contender, but each quietly have one of the league's most potent offenses. The Vikings are a safe bet, but this one will be close throughout.
Prediction: Panthers 20, Vikings 24
Browns @ Jaguars |
This Sunday, Mike Glennon will start under center for Jacksonville. Head coach Doug Marrone says Glennon gives the Jaguars the best chance to win. The move reeks of desperation for Marrone, whose days are numbered in Jacksonville, as the team is desperate to buck their nine game losing streak. The Jaguars will hand James Robinson the bulk of the ball in the first half, but the Browns will look to slow him down early. Glennon is immobile in the pocket and has flashed inaccuracy over his career, and the Browns secondary could feast this week. The Jaguars defensive coaching staff will also be shorthanded on Sunday, with defensive coordinator Todd Wash and three defensive coaches exposed to COVID-19. The Jaguars do not stack up in any way.
Cleveland's roster is built to dominate games like these. A strong ground game and stellar defense will be the story for the Browns as they move to 8-3. The Browns will officially clinch their first non-losing season since 2007.
Prediction: Browns 24, Jaguars 10
Dolphins @ Jets |
Sam Darnold's forgettable season forges on as it appears he may not suit up against the Dolphins. The quarterback is practicing, but his status against the Dolphins is up in the air. Whether Darnold or Flacco starts holds little bearing on Sunday's outcome. The running game is predictable and stagnant, the receiving core is untalented and easily containable, and the giveaways at the quarterback position have been back-breaking all season long. The Jets put up a fight against the Chargers in Los Angeles, but the Dolphins defense is much better coached. Flacco/Darnold will not have the Miami Dolphins defense on the ropes, because they do not beat themselves. Time is running out for the Jets, who are staring at 0-16.
Miami's five game winning streak primarily shined with jaw-dropping performances on special teams and 3-plus takeaways on a weekly basis, but that is not a sustainable winning formula. They won't need to make those plays on Sunday to win in New Jersey, though. The Dolphins will win comfortably.
Prediction: Dolphins 29, Jets 13
Giants @ Bengals |
Joe Burrow's season is over after the first overall pick tore his ACL and MCL a week ago. With Burrow out, it's Brandon Allen time. Ryan Finley filled in for Burrow a week ago, but completed 3 out of 10 passes for 30 yards in the defeat to Washington. Allen is promoted from the practice squad and is slated to start. Allen appeared for the Broncos in three games last season, and completed 46 percent of his passes for 515 yards, three touchdowns, and two interceptions. Allen will have weapons on the outside, but he will not be able to hand the ball off to Joe Mixon after landing on injured reserve. A.J. Green, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd will see a high volume of targets against the Giants defense, but if Allen struggles in a congested pocket, the Bengals aerial attack is neutralized.
The NFC East is there for the taking, and the Giants could earn a crucial fourth win of the season with a victory over Cincinnati. They are coming off a divisional win over the Eagles two games ago, in which Daniel Jones was on target, did not turn the ball over, and the Giants skill position players made the plays at the crucial moments. Wayne Gallman will be busy early on, and Jones will hope to air it out to the likes of Darius Slayton and Sterling Shepard. The Giants offense is poised to set the tone on offense if they start fast, and the team protects the football. Going against Brandon Allen, the Giants have to keep them playing from behind, otherwise the Giants could find themselves falling into a trap game.
With Brandon Allen at quarterback for the Bengals, the Giants are in an unfamiliar position where they are the favorites. The Giants should win, but this one may be closer than it should be.
Prediction: Giants 23, Bengals 10
49ers @ Rams |
The 49ers are hoping to welcome in some reinforcements this week, with Deebo Samuel, Richard Sherman, and Raheem Mostert practicing. Arik Armstead has also been activated from the COVID-19 list, as the team is combatting a rise in cases this week. The story of San Fran's season has been the players sidelined, but they have still been competitive this season. The 49ers were within 7 of the Saints two games ago, and they defeated the Rams in Week 6. Any reinforcement helps for the 49ers, but the Rams are going to take some slowing down. If the 49ers can pressure Jared Goff and collapse the pocket, they can disrupt the offense from its core. A strong running game will go a long way, but the roster in its current health is not built to compete with the Rams.
For all intensive purposes, the 49ers season is on life support. The Rams are looking to win the NFC West, and extend their winning run.
Prediction: 49ers 13, Rams 27
Saints @ Broncos |
Denver's ground game propelled the Broncos to an upset win over the Dolphins. Melvin Gordon galloped twice into the end zone and combined with Philip Lindsay to total 166 rushing yards. The Broncos are unstoppable on the ground when they are at their best, but the Saints present an unfavorable matchup. The Saints allow just 74 rushing yards per game, which is second-best in the NFL. If the Saints slow down Lindsay and Gordon, it thrusts Drew Lock into prime positions to turn the ball over as he has all season long. The Broncos cannot let the game become lopsided to the degree where Lock has to drop back 40 times to propel the Broncos to victory, because that will only end in humiliation.
The Broncos shocked the league when they upset the Dolphins a week ago, but pulling off back-to-back upset wins is going to be an uphill battle. Taysom Hill could be exploited, but it is unlikely the Broncos have enough to slow the Saints down. The Saints will snatch the win and move to 9-2.
Prediction: Saints 26, Broncos 17
Chiefs @ Buccaneers |
Chiefs-Bucs marks the third meeting between Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady, and sets up a clash between two of the best squads in the NFL.
The Chiefs bested the Raiders in Vegas with a vintage 75 yard drive led by Mahomes to come from behind and snatch a gritty win. Mahomes was prolific per usual, Travis Kelce burned the Raiders secondary, and Tyreek Hill could not be stopped. But the Chiefs defense has been torched of late, allowing 62 points in their previous two games. Just a week ago, Derek Carr bombarded the Chiefs secondary and had them on the ropes all night. Tom Brady is lining up against them this week, and he has a history of carving the Chiefs to pieces. The Chiefs defense must put pressure on Brady to congest the pocket and force him to errant throws downfield, where they can make opportunistic plays and turn the ball over.
Tom Brady flopped in Tampa's loss to the Rams, tossing two more interceptions while the offense stalled out completely. Brady's deep ball has been one of the league's least efficient in football this season, despite the arsenal he is surrounded with. Brady has been off-target, and teams are shutting the Bucs down when Brady is off his game. The Chiefs defense is a great matchup for Brady to rebound, with Mike Evans, Antonio Brown, Chris Godwin, and Rob Gronkowski each lining up for the Bucs. Defensively, the Bucs are the fifth ranked defense in the NFL, including best against the run. They can slow down the Chiefs offense to an extent, but the Bucs offense must keep pace, and 43 year old Brady must keep pace.
As enticing as this contest is on paper, Patrick Mahomes is poised to pick the Bucs defense to shreds, and Tom Brady could be in for another disappointing day at the office. The Chiefs will take it, without sweating it out too much by the fourth quarter.
Prediction: Chiefs 34, Buccaneers 21
Bears @ Packers |
Chicago's season is quickly fading. After a 5-1 start, the Bears have lost 4 straight, including a dud against the Vikings in which the offense posted just 149 total yards of offense against a porous Vikings defense. The offensive line has been the root of Chicago's primary woes on offense. The Bears rushing attack ranks bottom in the NFL, amassing just 78 yards per game, failing to find a spark all season. The defense can put together a respectable performance against the Packers as they have in years past. Taking the ball away from Aaron Rodgers is key, and putting the Bears on a short field could thrust Nick Foles into scoring position
It will take a complete performance from all three sides of the ball for the Bears to upset the Packers in Green Bay. Takeaways and special teams will define Chicago's success this Sunday night. But the night will ultimately belong to Green Bay.
Prediction: Bears 16, Packers 27
Seahawks @ Eagles |
Uncharacteristically, the Seahawks won by making a key play on defense this week. Carlos Dunlap sacked Kyler Murray on fourth down in Seattle's Week 11 win over the Cardinals, keeping hope alive to win the NFC West. As the Seahawks travel to Philly, the return of Cris Carson could prove to be pivotal. Seattle's semblance of a running game was boosted by the return of Carlos Hyde against Arizona, and Carson is a walking bowling ball and one of the division's most talented running backs. It opens the door for Russell Wilson to dominate through the air once again and find D.K. Metcalf deep down the field, who is becoming one of the NFL's most formidable deep threats.
With every passing week, Carson Wentz regresses even more. The former number two overall pick leads the league in giveaways with 18, and was horrid against the Browns. It has admittedly been difficult for Wentz who has played behind a banged up offensive line all season, and has missed his top weapons in the passing game. But the excuses are running out for Wentz. The Eagles can lean on the ground game with Miles Sanders and Boston Scott each available, and to alleviate Wentz's recklessness. Against the Seahawks defense which allows 435 yards per game, Wentz matches up to carve the Seattle secondary. But an Eagles win will only come without a single turnover, and a flawless game from Wentz. If Philly can replicate Buffalo's execution to beat Seattle three game ago, the Eagles have a shot.
While this may be a Wild Card playoff rematch, these teams are trending in polar opposite directions, as are their quarterbacks. Russell Wilson will remind the league why he is the MVP frontrunner, and Carson Wentz will more than likely register another disappointing night at the office. Seahawks win.
Prediction: Seahawks 26, Eagles 10
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