2019 Week 9 Predix

Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images

Written by Sam DeCoste

With November on the horizon, and the trade deadline closed, the NFL midseason is upon us. The playoff picture is starting to take shape, and we are starting to figure out who is for real and who is for not. This week, the undefeated 49ers take on the Cardinals on Thursday night, and the week concludes on Monday night when the Cowboys battle the Giants. But on Sunday night, Tom Brady and the undefeated Patriots march into Baltimore to square up against the Ravens, who will have something to say about their 8-0 start.

After going 9-5 in Week 7, I picked up 13 out of 15 wins this week in the Predix! Week 8 turned out to be my most accurate predictions since Week 1, which is exactly what we love to see. But the most challenging part of the job is predicting accurately on a consistent week to week basis, so let's see if I can keep it up. So without further ado, let's get right into the Predix!

BYES: Bengals, Falcons, Rams, Saints

Here are my records over this season:
My record last week: 13-2
Regular season record: 77-43-1
Lock of the Week record: 5-3

SF @ ARZ

We have reached midseason and the Niners remain perfect. It all comes down to their number one ranked defense which has usurped the Patriots in the rankings for total defense and passing yards per game. Astonishingly, the 49ers allow an average of just 129 yards per game, which is an incredible feat in 2019. They are playing at another level, and it will ride them to a comfortable win in Glendale this Thursday night when they face a rookie quarterback in Kyler Murray.

It will be the toughest game of Murray's young NFL career, and we should expect Murray to take lots of hits, go to the ground more than Kliff Kingsbury would want, and probably turn the ball over once or twice as well. Especially coming off a pedestrian performance against the Saints, Murray is lacking momentum which could make Arizona a hotter commodity coming into primetime. Not to mention the health of their running backs is not ideal, and Kenyan Drake will not be ready to suit up after just three days with the team. 

The train just keeps on rolling for San Francisco, and it won't stop in Arizona this week. Make it 8-0.

Prediction: SF 29, ARZ 13

HOU @ JAX

Everyone remember to set your fantasy lineups before 9:30 a.m. Eastern time, with the Texans and Jags renewing their AFC South rivalry across the pond in London this Sunday. 

With a win, the Jags would win their third straight, move above .500 going into the bye and thrust themselves back into playoff contention. And based on the play of Gardner Minshew, this may be the best Jags offense in the last decade plus. In fact, you could say Minshew is a dark horse MVP candidate the way he is playing this year. The connection between Mindshew and second year wideout DJ Chark has been especially lethal for Jacksonville this season, and defenses have had no answer. Chark already has 485 receiving yards and 5 scores this year, and the Jags offense is showing no signs of slowing down. Their connection will need to shine through once again to outscore a potent Texans offense.

Over in Houston, their playoff hopes have taken a massive blow after JJ Watt suffered a season-ending pectoral muscle injury. Without Watt, the Texans are missing an indispensable pass rusher, run stopper, defensive force, and team leader. The Texans will not be able to replace him, and it will allow opposing quarterbacks a much more comfortable pocket, which will exploit the Texans already weak secondary. The injury is very untimely for Houston as Garndner Minshew is coming in hot, and the last thing Houston wants to do is give Minshew more time to pick their secondary apart. 

We should be in for a thrilling contest in London early Sunday morning, but I fancy the supposed "home" team more than the Texans this week, who are recovering from a devastating injury.

Prediction: HOU 20, JAX 24

MIN @ KC

The Chiefs are winless in their last three home games, and they are poised to continue their Arrowhead woes with the Vikings marching into Missouri this week. With Mahomes out once again, the understudy Matt Moore will need to lead his offense against the fifth ranked overall defense in Minnesota Vikings. While Moore cashed a solid performance, completing 75% of his passes for 267 yards and 2 touchdowns, Aaron Rodgers was on the other team, and he carried the team on his back like few quarterbacks are capable of doing. If Mahomes suited up, the Chiefs may have won the game. But he did not, and he won't play this week, which is a substantial disadvantage once again.

The Vikings are coming off ten days rest after a win on Thursday night over the Redskins, but narrowly edged them by just 10 points. However, Adam Thielen is slated to return this Sunday. He was questionable for most of the short week before the Redskins game, so it is a safe bet that Thielen will be suiting up in Kansas City. With him back, Kirk Cousins can shred the Chiefs defense to pieces, which was just carved by Aaron Rodgers who threw for over 300 yards 3 scores. However, this is a blockbuster contest, and Kirk Cousins has proven to be inconsistent in games with massive stakes. Last season, the Vikings were 1-6 versus teams with winning records, and while the Chiefs are struggling, they are still above .500 and will be playing in front of their red sea in Arrowhead. Cousins needs to prove he can step up in a big spot, and this is as big as it could get. 

There is room for Kirk Cousins to lay an egg and for the Vikings to underperform in KC this week, but the Chiefs are in a free fall at the moment. I think the Vikings defense will be able to shut down Matt Moore and the offense, and Kirk Cousins will do just enough. 

Prediction: MIN 24, KC 23

CHI @ PHI

The Eagles may have saved their season with their dominant win over Buffalo last week, because a record of 3-5 is substantially worse than 4-4. Now they are back home with the Bears in town, and they have a chance to move back above .500 when they face off against Mitchell Trubisky and the woeful Bears attack. 

For the Bears, they have lost three of their last four games, and are one chip shot field goal away from being 4-3, but their playoff hopes are quickly fading, and it is down to the woeful play of third year quarterback Mitchell Trubisky. However, last week, David Montgomery, the promising rookie who came with an abundance of preseason hype coming into 2019, played his best game in the NFL on the count of 27 carries for 135 yards and a score. The Bears can make a playoff push if they ride Montgomery and Cohen in the backfield, because their offense is still dynamic even with the struggles under center. That being said, the Eagles rushing defense ranks in the top 10 this season, so it will be tough to run against them.

This game is all about Philadelphia and if they can rack some wins together. Head coach Doug Pederson needs his offensive line to pass protect and keep Carson Wentz upright, and run the ball like they did versus the Bills, and the turnovers will come on defense when Trubisky takes the field. The Eagles should steamroll their opponent for the second straight week.

Prediction: CHI 10, PHI 27

TEN @ CAR

The Panthers just received a big wake-up call after a 51-13 loss to the 49ers, after Kyle Allen's worst performance of the season. This week is a chance to respond and bounce back, but the Titans will be a tough out.

Mike Vrabel's defense is very underrated, as they have been stout versus their opponents this season. They rank 6th in yards allowed, 4th in points allowed, 9th in total defense in 2019, and they are led by the stellar safety Kevin Byard who already has 3 picks on the year. On offense, Ryan Tannehill has proved to be better than Marcus Mariota this season, but he is still Ryan Tannehill. He is an average quarterback, and has proved to be inconsistent passer on the road, and going into Carolina this week, I believe Tannehill will play his worst game of the season so far.

Kyle Allen before last week had no interceptions on the season, and the Panthers were undefeated with him under center since Cam Newton went down, with a 4-0 record before their loss to San Francisco. However, I am concerned about the Panthers going forward, considering last season, they were pounded by the Steelers in primetime 52-21, and proceeded to capitulate the rest of the season. The Panthers cannot afford another midseason collapse following a 50 point performance from the other team, as it occurred last year. But versus a mediocre Titans squad, the Panthers should get it done at home. 

This is my Lock of the Week.

Prediction: TEN 19, CAR 23

IND @ PIT

Currently, the Colts are slated as the number two seed in the AFC, only behind the Patriots for home field. The Colts have continued to over perform and have a great season, and their schedule only gets easier. Following their road trip to Pittsburgh, the Colts will play the Dolphins, Jaguars, Titans, Buccaneers, and Jaguars again before the end of the season. This Colts squad is a playoff team. That being said, playoff teams win the games they are supposed to win, and they have one on a silver platter for them in Heinz Field against the mediocre Steelers.

Surprisingly, the Steelers have won three of their last four, including their 27-14 victory over the Dolphins on Monday night. James Conner had a big game with 145 yards and one touchdown, proving he is the focal point of the Steelers offense. If they can run the ball on Indy this week, the Steelers will cause some trouble for the Colts defense, which surrenders an average of 111 yards per game on the ground. That is one of Indianapolis' prominent weaknesses, which could potentially be exploited if the Colts play half asleep.

The Colts cannot afford to overlook the Steelers, who are just a win from evening their record. This is a good, old fashioned trap game. Although I don't think Frank Reich will let his team fall for the bait. The Colts will move to 6-2.

Prediction: IND 20, PIT 14

NYJ @ MIA

The bottom half of the AFC East faces off this week, in what is turning out to be a second version of the Tank Bowl. The New York Jets are coming off a woeful defensive performance against Gardner Minshew and the Jaguars, who did whatever he wanted versus the Jets secondary. Meanwhile, Sam Darnold continued his downward spiral following the Patriots shutout by throwing 3 more interceptions, which makes that 7 interceptions thrown in two games. Sam Darnold cannot afford to cough it up versus the Dolphins, who are unbeaten against the Jets in Miami since 2016.

For Miami, one of two winless teams remaining in football, this week presents an amazing opportunity to clinch their first victory of the year. The Dolphins, while winless, have cashed in some encouraging performances the previous two games, especially on offense, on the road in Buffalo and Pittsburgh. Their younger players on offense including Mark Walton and Preston Williams have become focal points of the offense, and they have flashed explosiveness the past two weeks. They have the lead in both games at the half, before collapsing in the second half. If the offense can sustain production through four quarters, against a bottom tier Jets defense, the Dolphins could shock the world and win their first game. Yes, you are reading this right. I, Sam DeCoste, world-renowned football expert, am predicting a Miami Dolphins win.

Prediction: NYJ 13, MIA 20

WSH @ BUF

While the loss was an ugly one for Bills fans, Buffalo currently holds a 5-2 record, with their only two losses coming to the last two Super Bowl winners. They have played consistent football on defense for most the season, and Josh Allen is developing into a promising young quarterback in this league. They need to get the ball in the hands of their playmakers more consistently. The talent of the rookie running back Devin Singletary led the Bills front office to releasing LeSean McCoy, and he is not getting enough touches in the offenses. If offensive coordinator Brian Daboll can call plays to get the ball to Cole Beasley and Devin Singletary more often, the Buffalo offense will be an explosive unit the rest of the season. The season is young, and the Bills still have room to improve and get even better. 

The road team is coming in to a daunting NFL venue and they are facing long odds to cause a monumental upset. Dwayne Haskins, the fifteenth overall pick, will start at quarterback for the Redskins as well this week, and it will be his first career start. But against the Bills, on the road, this game as all the makings of a perennial disaster for the rookie. Buffalo allows just under 200 passing yards per game this year, and that includes a stellar performance against Tom Brady. Haskins will be welcomed to the NFL in style this week, and it will not be pretty.

Buffalo is a good football team, and the embarrassing loss versus Philadelphia will be quickly forgotten after they edge the one-win Redskins this Sunday.

Prediction: WSH 7, BUF 26

DET @ OAK

For the first time since September 15, the Raiders will play at home. They have spent seven weeks away from the Coliseum, but they will finally return to the Black Hole this Sunday to take on the pesky Detroit Lions. On offense, the Raiders have overachieved on offense this season, and Derek Carr has played as efficient as he has in his career. Despite the gut wrenching loss to Houston, Carr threw for 3 touchdowns and had a passer rating of 125 versus the Texans last week, and has only thrown 4 interceptions this season. The offense has been efficient, but the defense has been riddled with injuries right from opening day, and it has cost them dearly against the league's top quarterbacks. They have given up a combined 9 touchdowns in the last two weeks, and Matt Stafford is coming in town looking to rack a second consecutive victory for Detroit.

Stafford was straight cash money versus the Giants, throwing for 324 yards and 3 scores, and led the offense to a 31 point performance. They desperately needed a win to even their record, which they were able to do, and they have a great chance to upset the Raiders on a West Coast trip. In just about every game the Lions have played this season, they have been the better team. They have played complete games against Arizona, Kansas City, and Green Bay, and failed to win any of those games because they collapsed in the final two minutes. Against an offense as balanced and productive as Oakland, the Lions are vulnerable to suffering the same result. But I think Stafford and the Lions match up well on both sides of the ball, and I will pick the road team to notch an upset win.

Prediction: DET 24, OAK 22

TB @ SEA

The Seahawks won despite a quieter performance from Russell Wilson in Atlanta, but he still completed 70% of his passes for 182 yards and 2 scores. However, the Hawks ran the ball well, stacking 151 yards on the ground, including another solid performance from Cris Carson. Seattle will need to run the ball with similar production against Tampa if they are to get over the line, because the Bucs rank number one in rushing defense this year, only surrendering 69 yards per game. In the trenches, the Seahawks could be mismatched, which could call for an MVP performance from Russell Wilson once again.

That being said, Jameis Winston could make Russell Wilson's job a whole lot easier if he performs consistently from what we have seen already. Winston is tied with Baker Mayfield with the most interceptions thrown this season with 12 (!!!) on the year, including 7 in the previous two games. It is strange that Bruce Arians has not benched his starting quarterback yet, with the chaotic string of performances this season. In Seattle this week, this may be the game we finally see Winston take a seat.

The Seahawks are dominant at CenturyLink, and the Bucs will not be able to protect the ball. Tampa Bay is a free falling squad while the Seahawks are surging, so there is only one way this game will go.

Prediction: TB 26, SEA 31

GB @ LAC

Perhaps the football gods rewarded Chargers fans with an unlikely win after Bears kicker Eddie Pineiro missed a chip shot field goal at the end of the game to make up for Melvin Gordon's goal line fumble in Tennessee the week before. That being said, the Chargers season is one Popeyes biscuit away from being over at 3-5, and with the 7-1 Packers marching in, the Chargers are in for a brutal contest.

With the Packers coming into town, the Chargers will definitely be playing yet another road game in Los Angeles. Packers fans are one of the most well traveled fanbases in football, and they will be out in full force at StubHub Center. That will provide a complementary disadvantage for the Chargers, who already face the daunting task of defending Aaron Rodgers. In his last two games, Rodgers has thrown for 769 total yards, scored 9 times, and completed 75% of his passes. Rodgers is playing the best football in his career, and is a prime candidate to win MVP at the midseason mark. The Chargers defense will have no answer, and neither will their offense, which has struggled to play catchup all season long. 

The Packers are on a roll, and the Chargers are still going through the motions. The Packers will move to 8-1, with their eyes set on the Niners at the top of the NFC. 

Prediction: GB 30, LAC 20

CLE @ DEN

The offseason honeymoon is over for the Cleveland Browns, and their backs are against the wall now. Quarterback Baker Mayfield was once the poster boy for the franchise and flashed the promise and direction of the Browns future, but now he is a polarizing figure, who leads the league in turnovers and blows up at journalists. Mayfield has been a liability this season, and his play is holding the Browns back. That being said, most of his poor production comes down to the play of his offensive line, which has been weak this year. But the Broncos defense has been a pushover on the defensive line this year, and they cannot sack the quarterback no matter how hard they try. Mayfield will have time in the pocket this week to exploit the Broncos secondary.

The Broncos will be rolling out a young quarterback of the their own, the 27-year old Brandon Allen, a career redshirt, will be making his first NFL snap this week as the starting quarterback. With Joe Flacco hurt, and Drew Lock supposedly still unprepared for the NFL, it is on Brandon Allen to lead them to a shock victory over the Browns. For the Broncos not to completely humiliate themselves, Vic Fangio needs Allen to make quick, short throws and lean heavily on Philip Lindsay and Royce Freeman in the backfield to move the chains. Otherwise, the fearsome Cleveland pass rush will annihilate the inexperienced QB.

The Browns may be in disarray, but they are superior to the Broncos in every way, especially with Brandon Allen starting under center. The Browns should get back in the win column this Sunday.

Prediction: CLE 20, DEN 16

NE @ BAL

By Monday morning, Lamar Jackson will be exposed as the running back he truly is. Jackson has not thrown a touchdown pass since Week 5, and has only completed 30 passes in the past two games, while he has carried the ball 33 times in the same window. While Jackson and the Ravens offense are prolific on the ground, ranking number one in rushing this year, it does not bode well for them in high profile games. The Ravens will be unable to run the ball effectively if they find themselves in a second half deficit, Lamar Jackson will have to throw the ball to lead Baltimore to victory. Against one of the greatest defenses of the 21st century this week, Lamar Jackson is bound for a humiliating performance, similar to his fellow second year quarterbacks who have thrown a combined 8 interceptions versus the Patriots in 2019.

The Pats defense has been lights out all year long, and while the Ravens offense poses a different threat which they haven't seen yet, Bill Belichick will have them ready. The Patriots have 25 total takeaways this season, including 3 more against the Browns in just the first quarter of last week's game, and they have a turnover differential of +17 this season. The identity of the Patriots is no longer Tom Brady, it is the dominance of the Pats defense. 

They match up well with the Ravens even though the rushing attack will provide an alternative look to what they have seen so far, but the Patriots will still dominate the game when it matters most. The Pats will stroll to 9-0.

Prediction: NE 27, BAL 15

DAL @ NYG

Coming off the bye, the Cowboys have a chance to right the ship and move past their three-game losing streak by beating the Giants and completing the season sweep over their division rivals. However, the last time the Cowboys played in MetLife Stadium, they were shocked by the New York Jets in a head-scratching loss. But the last time we saw Dallas in action, they throttled the Eagles on Sunday night to take the lead in the NFC East. Elliott ran the ball 22 times for 111 yards and a touchdown, Amari Cooper caught 5 passes for 106 yards, and Dak Prescott was just good enough, throwing a touchdown and interception in a dominant 37-10 win. From week to week, nobody knows which version of the Cowboys will take the field. I don't know, to be frank.

The Giants season is quickly fading away, and a win over Dallas would spark life back into their season like Daniel Jones did when he started his first career game. While the play of rookie quarterback Daniel Jones has been up and down this year, he has cashed in phenomenal performances. He threw for 4 touchdowns against the Lions last week, and lived up to his nickname "Danny Dimes." He is the key to an upset win if there is one to be had, because he knows how to lead an offense. That being said, Saquon Barkley needs to step up, and the defense needs to learn to make a stop. The Cowboys offense has been prolific this year and the Giants defense needs to step up big time.

The rivalry of Daniel Jones and Dak Prescott could be an exciting one for years to come, and both quarterbacks are in for big time games this week. But this Monday night, the Cowboys are the stronger squad, and I do not think they will lay two eggs in East Rutherford.

Prediction: DAL 24, NYG 14

Thank you for reading Franchise Quarterback! I hope you enjoyed the Predix and stay tuned for weekly Predix every Wednesday for breakdowns of all the upcoming games!