2019 Week 8 Predix

Written by Sam DeCoste

Spooky season is upon us, which means the first half of football season is nearly over! But with Halloween approaching, we are definitely in for some treats this weekend. The monster mash begins on Thursday night when Kirk Cousins plays his former team in a clash between the Redskins and Vikings. It continues when the Bills host the Eagles in the early window, the Browns visiting the Patriots in the late window, and the Packers squaring off with the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football.

Finally, I bounced back in the win column this week with a winning record 9-5. Although my bold Lock of the Week failed me once again, I feel confident that I know what direction the season is going from here! Without further ado, let's get right into the Predix!

BYES: Cowboys, Ravens

Here are my records over this season:
My record last week: 9-5
Regular season record: 64-41-1
Lock of the Week record: 4-3

WSH @ MIN

The Kirk Cousins revenge game does not have as much glamour as it once did. The Redskins are now 1-6 after an embarrassing shutout loss to the 49ers, and their former signal caller is in Minnesota currently riding a hot streak. Over the past three weeks, Cousins has turned his play up another gear, on the count of 10 touchdown passes and just one interception. He has stepped up his game after a slow start to the season, which has the Vikings right in the mix for the NFC North. Although this week, Adam Thielen has been ruled out with a hamstring injury. His loss would have hurt more if it was versus a top passing defense, but the Redskins are not a top defense. 

Kirk Cousins should earn a win versus the team which franchise tagged him two straight offseasons and declined to pay him the money he believed himself to be worth. Against a 1-6 football team, Cousins will have the confidence to get that chip off his shoulder. Vikings win.

Prediction: WSH 13, MIN 22

CIN @ LAR

The acquisition of Jalen Ramsey may prove to be the turning point the Rams needed to save their season. After just four days with the team, Ramsey suited up to face the Falcons, and shut down the best receiver in the league in Julio Jones, and forced a fumble on Devontae Freeman as well. He adds a brand new dimension which the Rams defense has not in a very long time. With Aaron Donald rushing the passer up front and Jalen Ramsey locking it down in the secondary, the Rams defense morphs into a legitimate threat for any offense. 

If you're the Bengals, this game could get ugly. The Bengals are already shorthanded at wideout, with a receiving core featuring the likes of Tyler Boyd, Alex Erickson, and Auden Tate. The Rams will know that shutting down Joe Mixon and the running game will force Andy Dalton into throwing turnovers, in which he did 3 times versus the Jags last week. The Bengals have been unfortunate to be one of just two winless teams remaining, but they are not a talented football team. They are in for a rough business trip in London this week.

In the prestigious Wembley Stadium, we will see a Rams squad fired up and ready to prove they are not a has-been, and they will humiliate the Bengals. 

Prediction: CIN 9, LAR 38

PHI @ BUF

Guaranteeing a victory versus the Cowboys was always a questionable choice, and unfortunately, Doug Pedersen's squad was unable to back up his words. The Eagles were thumped on Sunday night versus the Cowboys by a count of 37-10, and it kickstarts a brutal stretch where the Eagles face the Bills this week, then the Bears, Patriots, and Seahawks. In Buffalo this week, the Eagles are facing one of the NFL's top defenses and a productive offense led by Josh Allen. It is a tough test which they will need to be ready to start fast to do well. Through their first seven games, they have gotten off to slow starts in all but one game this season, where they have trailed by as low as 10 points and as high as 21 points after just two quarters. If the Eagles start off slow again, Buffalo will exploit their 27th ranked passing defense and force the Eagles to play from behind again.

Meanwhile in Buffalo, last week's game was more competitive than head coach Sean McDermott would have liked. The Miami Dolphins were having their way against Buffalo's elite defense and the Bills had no answers until the third quarter. But Josh Allen led the Bills to their third 4th quarter come-from-behind win this season. While Allen has had his struggles turning the ball over this season, he has the highest passer rating in the fourth quarter this season with 139.6. If the Bills are within one score in the fourth quarter, Josh Allen has shown he can carry the team on his back and lead them to another victory. He must play ball security against the Eagles otherwise it could hurt them in the second half.

This game is the most intriguing on paper this week in the league. While the Eagles may be a popular upset pick, I have to go with the Bills. Buffalo has their identity on both sides of the ball, while the Eagles have been playing half asleep virtually all season. The Buffalo Bills will win once again, and get off their first 6-1 start since the 1993 season, back in the Super Bowl years.

Prediction: PHI 20, BUF 28

LAC @ CHI

Is there a more disappointing team in the NFL this season than the Chargers? I don't think so. The Chargers have already lost more games in 2019 than they did in all of 2018, with a mark of 2-5, and they are quickly falling out of playoff contention, and spooky season isn't even over yet! In their last three games, Philip Rivers has 4 touchdowns with 4 interceptions, and the Chargers offense has been so unproductive that they have been unable to come from behind versus offenses led by the likes of Joe Flacco, Devlin Hodges, and Ryan Tannehill. With Mitch Trubisky next in line, the Chargers better be ready to go.

As for Chicago, it appears the downfall of the Bears will be due to one man, and that's Mitchell Trubisky. Last week versus the Saints, Trubisky played worse than Michael Scott in The Office basketball episode. Trubisky attempted 54 passes, completed 34, and failed the eye test in every way on Sunday. He does not look like a natural thrower of the football, and may be the next Blake Bortles of the league, which is not a title anybody wants. The Bears will need to hand the ball off to Tarik Cohen on every snap for them to move the ball at all, and I think the Chargers are perfectly capable of shutting that down. 

I imagine this game will be a defensive contest, and both quarterbacks will have days to forget. But ultimately, I trust Philip Rivers more than I trust Mitchell Trubisky, and quarterback play will be decisive for both of these teams and their seasons going forward. It won't be easy, but the Chargers will escape with a win.

Prediction: LAC 17, CHI 13

TB @ TEN

Both these franchises held the top two picks of the 2015 draft, where they selected James Winston and Marcus Mariota. They faced off in 2015, and the Titans won 42-14. Just four years later, the Titans have already benched their bonified future of the franchise. Ryan Tannehill will be rolling out for the Titans, and he is coming in this week hot off a stellar performance versus the Chargers. Tannehill threw for 312 yards and 2 touchdown passes last week in a close victory, and it looks like he will keep the starting spot indefinitely. 

Meanwhile, the last time we saw Jameis Winston in action, it was ugly. Winston threw 5 interceptions in London versus the Panthers, and led the Bucs to their fourth loss of the year. While Mariota struggled to move the chains, Winston's buggaboo is his troubles with turnovers. Winston is bound to be benched sooner rather than later at the rate he is playing, and he will be outplayed by Ryan Tannehill this week. 

The Bucs played like a fringy playoff contender early in the season, but since the turn of the month, Winston's play has regressed, and the Bucs team has been unable to compensate for that. The Titans are far and away the superior team and they will roll to victory over the Bucs.

Prediction: TB 17, TEN 24

ARZ @ NO

With Drew Brees waiting in the wings to return, the Saints remain top of the division at 6-1, and they look as balanced on both sides of the ball as the 49ers do this season. Teddy Bridgewater threw 2 touchdown passes in the win over Chicago, and comes back with a favorable matchup against a porous Cardinals defense which has been torched in the air this season. 

In Arizona, Kyler Murray continues to experience the highs and lows of the league, and is registering inconsistent performances week to week. After throwing for 340 yards and 3 touchdowns against Atlanta, and winning Offensive Player of the Week, he threw for just 104 yards against the Giants. You could say that head coach Kliff Kingsbury decided to emphasize the running game versus the Giants, but Kyler Murray could not sustain a performance after tearing it up the week before. The running game will probably not be enough to defeat the Saints, Kyler Murray will need to beat them through the air.

However, this is undoubtedly the most hostile environment Murray will have ever seen in his career. In New Orleans, against this defense, it will be a tall task. Give the Saints another dub.

Prediction: ARZ 13, NO 28

NYG @ DET

The Danny Dimes honeymoon is over. After saving the Giants season at 0-2 and evening their record at .500, the Giants are winless in their last 3, and Daniel Jones has 5 interceptions in his last three games. He badly needs a bounce back week for his confidence, and to keep the Giants season alive. With Saquon Barkley and Golden Tate in the offense, it won't be as difficult as when they were shorthanded. The Lions defense made Kirk Cousins look like Tom Brady last week, when Cousins threw for 338 yards and 4 scores. However, this is the same defense which held Pat Mahomes without a touchdown pass.

As for Detroit, what looked to be a promising season has quickly fallen apart after three straight losses. They scored 30 points at home against the Vikings and still lost, and they blew a 13-0 lead at Green Bay. This is their opportunity to bounce back, with a rookie quarterback on tap at Ford Field. Matt Stafford is playing as good football as he has in his career. He threw for 4 scores against the Vikings and 3 versus the Chiefs, and has a passer rating of 101.7 this season.

If the Lions can capitalize in the red zone and hold on to a fourth quarter lead, the Lions will win their first game since Week 3. Danny Dimes and the Giants will move to 2-6, and the Lions will move back to .500.

Prediction: NYG 20, DET 22

SEA @ ATL

Atlanta's blowout loss to the Rams should mark the official end of the Falcons Super Bowl window. For as much talent as the Falcons have, they have been unable to put it together since their devastating 28-3 loss, and three years later, they sit at 1-6. Head coach Dan Quinn is on the hot seat and is a candidate to be fired sooner rather than later. With the Seahawks coming into town, it will be difficult for the Falcons to find motivation to beat a high quality opponent, especially with Russell Wilson playing out of his mind.

For the Seahawks, their 30-16 loss at home to the Ravens should serve as a wakeup call that their defense needs work. Lamar Jackson ran all over their defense on the count of 116 rushing yards. Most of Wilson's production came out of garbage time when the game was out of reach. Seattle cannot let Atlanta mount an early lead, which they are absolutely capable of. As long as Wilson reverts back to his MVP form, and the Hawks can force turnovers out of the up and down Matt Ryan, the loss to Baltimore will become a distant memory very quickly. 

The Falcons have been in a freefall for a couple years now, and they have their work cut out for them if they're going to stop the Seahawks coming off a loss. The Seahawks will bounce back in Atlanta this week.

Prediction: SEA 29, ATL 13

NYJ @ JAX

Sam Darnold's post-mononucleosis honeymoon is over, after his worst career performance to date versus the Patriots. Darnold turned the ball over 5 times, threw for just 86 passing yards, and posted a mere 3.6 passer rating. Head coach Adam Gase will hope that Darnold can bounce back and avoid turnovers against a now Jalen Ramsey-less Jags secondary. But after such a dysmal performance, it will be tough for Darnold to regain his confidence on short notice.

While the former number 3 overall pick in New York is struggling, the 178th pick in the draft in Gardner Minshew continues to have a stellar rookie season. He led the Jags to their first victory since Week 4 over the Bengals, along with Leonard Fournette's 29 carries. Minshew still only has two interceptions this far into the season alongside 10 touchdown passes. Against the Jets, the Jags shouldn't have problems copying and pasting their game plan for the Bengals. The Jets are giving up 126 yards on the ground per game this season, and Fournette is playing as good as he did in his rookie season. The Jags can roll to victory with another stout performance on the ground.

While the upset win over the Cowboys was fun for the Jets while it lasted, that is history. Today, the New York Jets are just as terrible as their 1-5 record says they are, while the Jags are in the mix for a playoff spot. Jacksonville will prevail, and Sam Darnold could be in for another rough day at the office.

Prediction: NYJ 7, JAX 20

DEN @ IND

The Colts earned a massive victory over division rivals Houston last Sunday, and they are on their way to a division title if they can keep up. This is the stretch where their schedule lightens up, including games against the Steelers, Dolphins, Jaguars, Titans, and Buccaneers in five of the next six weeks. It starts this week against the Broncos. The Colts certainly match up well offensively, after Jacoby Brissett's arguably best career performance, throwing for 326 yards and 4 touchdowns. He is facing an offense which was carved by the likes of Matt Moore just a week ago, when Pat Mahomes went down with an injury in the first half. 

Meanwhile, in Denver, head coach Vic Fangio should consider switching over to Drew Lock if Flacco continues to struggle. With Mahomes out of the game, Flacco was unable to capitalize and step up. He threw for no touchdowns in the game and managed just 213 passing yards. Philip Lindsay was shut down as well, and ran for just 36 yards. And their premier offensive weapon, Emmanuel Sanders, was just shipped out of town. The outlook of the Broncos does not look good, and they do not match up well in any facet versus the Colts.

There is no reason to believe the Colts will drop this one at home to a 2-5 football team. The Colts are a virtual lock to win this game.

Prediction: DEN 14, IND 20

CAR @ SF

Surprisingly, Kyle Allen is the sole quarterback remaining who has yet to throw an interception this season, after Russell Wilson's pick six a week ago. That being said, this will be Allen's biggest test yet as he faces the best defense in the NFC in the 49ers. For the Panthers to shock the world and pull off an improbable upset, they need to give the ball to Christian McCaffrey. Then give it to him again. And again. And again. McCaffrey has emerged as an unlikely MVP candidate this season with his incredible production.  McCaffrey already has posted 923 scrimmage yards this season along with 9 touchdowns. He is taking over games every week, and he is making Allen's job as reliever a whole lot easier.

McCaffrey may be the most explosive playmaker on offense the 49ers have had to prepare for all season. Albeit the conditions in Washington were torrential rainfall, the Niners were able to neutralize the Redskins offense completely and walk away from the East Coast with a dominant shutout victory. They continue to ride high on momentum, and they are still invincible. 

Ultimately, Kyle Allen has not faced a defense like what he is about to face on Sunday. The Niners defense can rush the quarterback, and play elite man to man coverage, which is a dangerous formula for the Panthers offense this week. San Francisco will carry on with their seventh straight win, and keep their unbeaten season alive.

Prediction: CAR 20, SF 23

CLE @ NE

The 2019 New England Patriots defense will go down in history as one of the greatest if they continue to harass quarterbacks like they have so far this season. Everywhere you look, the numbers are absolutely incredible for the Pats. Against the Jets, the Pats forced 6 turnovers, a safety, and another shutout. They are the first team since the 1942 Bears to have two 30 point shutout victories in a season, and the first since the 1920 Buffalo All-Americans to have a point differential of at least +175. They have also picked off quarterbacks 18 times so far in 7 games. Their defense has helped overshadow the struggles of Tom Brady in the past three to four weeks, and they match up excellently with the Browns offense.

Baker Mayfield reigns supreme with the most interceptions in the NFL this season with 11 in 6 games, which is a hard fall from grace after a record breaking rookie campaign. He is not the same quarterback he was last year, and he is struggling to get his premier weapons like Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry involved. The offensive line is shorthanded and a glaring weakness which will only grow worse as the season progresses. If the Browns make Nick Chubb the focal point on offense this week, they can slow the game down and put the Patriots in a tough spot. Otherwise, the Browns are in for a nightmare this Sunday, the Patriots are going to embarrass Baker Mayfield and the Browns. It will not be pretty for Cleveland. 

Prediction: CLE 6, NE 27

OAK @ HOU

The Texans' hopes of winning the AFC South took a massive blow last week after being defeated by the Indianapolis Colts on the road. However, they can keep up in the standings if they take care of business. Against the Raiders, Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson will carve up the Raiders secondary, which is now without Gareon Conley, their former first round pick. Coincidentally, Conley was traded to Oakland's opponent in Houston this week, so he will have an early chance at revenge against his former team. Unfortunately for the Texans offense, Will Fuller is out for several weeks after picking up a hamstring injury. Fuller's loss hurts, but with the preseason acquisition of Kenny Stills, hopefully Stills can fill the void and be Houston's vertical threat until Fuller gets back. If not, the Texans are missing a significant downfield element to their game which has them ranked as the fourth most productive offense in the league.

Against Green Bay, the Raiders came out from their bye week completely flat and unprepared for Aaron Rodgers and an underperforming offense. Rodgers threw for 429 yards and 5 touchdowns versus Oakland's defense, which is encouraging for Deshaun Watson, who is playing like an MVP candidate in 2019. Derek Carr and the offense will virtually score every possession to have a chance this week, but as they showed in Green Bay, they are not fully capable of doing so.

The Texans are bound to light up the scoreboard this week, and the Raiders have low odds of being able to keep up on offense. Houston will bounce back with a win at home this week and keep the Colts on their toes.

This is my Lock of the Week.

Prediction: OAK 13, HOU 30

GB @ KC

Andy Reid has not ruled out Pat Mahomes as of Wednesday night to play this week, but the odds he suits up a week after limping off the field seems unlikely. It will most likely be Matt Moore suiting up against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, which is a massive drop-off at quarterback for the Chiefs. That being said, Andy Reid is an offensive savant, and he has a proven track record of getting the most out of all his quarterbacks, starters and backups included. If Matt Moore can avoid turning the ball over, and find Tyreek Hill in space, the Chiefs won't miss a beat.

Green Bay, however, will look to capitalize on Mahomes' absence and steal a win at Arrowhead. The Pack is 6-1 this season, and they are coming off their best performance of the season following Aaron Rodgers' standout performance. He racked 429 passing yards and scored 6 total touchdowns. If he can carry that momentum into Arrowhead, the Packers will have a massive chance of winning. However, we have seen Aaron Rodgers and his squad in the past struggle in primetime spots such as this one. They lost to the Eagles at home in Week 4, and barely squeaked past the Lions on Monday night two weeks ago. In one of the most hostile environments in the league, the Packers are facing a tough task, even if Matt Moore is in at QB.

This should be an evenly balanced game throughout, but it should end in a Chiefs win. Matt Moore is a veteran who has bounced around the league, and he will do enough to get the ball to his playmakers and blitz the Packers in primetime. 

Prediction: GB 20, KC 26

MIA @ PIT

The Steelers are coming off a bye week, following their unlikely road upset over the LA Chargers. Devlin Hodges earned his first career victory as a third string quarterback, undrafted out of Samford University. Now there is a possibility that Mason Rudolph can come back and play this week after suffering from a freak hit which gave him a concussion in Week 5. No matter who is at QB this Monday, the Steelers are still the more talented team on the field. 

The quarterback carousel of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Josh Rosen has continued to plague the production of the Dolphins offense all season, but the Dolphins finally managed an efficient offensive game against the Bills, who are a stout defense in this league. They scored a season high 21 points and racked 381 offensive yards, which is an encouraging sign for what has otherwise been the NFL's laughing stock. If they can sustain that momentum from the offensive side of the ball, Miami will be competitive. But in Pittsburgh, against a defense which is behind only the Patriots in defensive interceptions this season, the Dolphins face long odds to make Heinz Field the venue of their first victory.

This game could be more entertaining than it suggests on paper, but in the end, it would be massively embarrassing for the Steelers to lose at home to the worst team in football. The Steelers will win. 

Prediction: MIA 17, PIT 27

Thank you for reading Franchise Quarterback! I hope you enjoyed the Predix and stay tuned for weekly Predix every Wednesday for breakdowns of all the upcoming games!