2019 Week 5 Predix

Written by Sam DeCoste

Believe it or not, we have already reached the quarter mark in the season. Thirty teams have already played 4 games, and bye weeks have already begun! The season is starting to take form, and we are getting a better idea of who are contenders, and who are pretenders. This week in the NFL, the Rams and Seahawks face off in a crucial Thursday night clash, Daniel Jones and the New York Giants go up against the Minnesota Vikings, and Baker Mayfield leads the Browns into the Bay Area to take on the unbeaten San Francisco 49ers.

My accuracy dipped once again in Week 4, where I predicted 8 of 15 games correctly, including my first loss in the Lock of the Week segment. It wasn't my best performance, but I have a lot of room to improve this week! Without further ado, let's get right into it!

BYES: Dolphins, Lions

Here are my records over this season:

My record last week: 8-7
Regular season record: 39-23-1
Lock of the Week record: 3-1

LAR @ SEA

After being walloped at home by the Bucs, the Rams are at risk of ranking third in the NFC West by Friday morning if they lose to Seattle this week. And if they perform like they did against the Bucs, it will be a long day for the Rams. Todd Gurley needs more than 5 carries for 16 yards, and Jared Goff needs to cut down on the turnovers. But most importantly, the defense needs to get back to the basics and learn how to make a stop.

Jameis Winston exploited the Rams secondary last week when he threw for 385 yards and 4 touchdowns. Russell Wilson is certainly much higher caliber than Winston, and he has the chance to demolish Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib. Tyler Lockett, Jaron Brown, and DK Metcalf could explode, and are all fantasy sleepers for this week. The Seahawks are certainly catching the Rams at the best possible time. 

As poor as the Rams looked, and for as difficult as it is to win in Seattle, I think the Rams can bounce back. Sean McVay's group is 3-1 against the Seahawks since 2017 and I trust they will be ready to go.

Prediction: LAR 24, SEA 23

CHI @ OAK

The NFL's International Series kicks off with the Khalil Mack revenge game in London. Sunday will mark the first time Mack has lined up against the Raiders in a Bears uniform, and surely he will have extra motivation to prove to his former coach Jon Gruden that trading him was an all time gaff.

Derek Carr is in for a long four quarters. The Bears defense is allowing just 290 yards per game, and they have sacked the opposing quarterback 17 times. If the Bears shut down Josh Jacobs and the Oakland running game, the Raiders are in trouble, and Derek Carr is going to get pummeled. However, for as superb as the Bears defense has been, their offense has held them back significantly, and they will be forced to roll out their backup quarterback with Mitchell Trubisky out with a shoulder injury. With Trubisky, the Bears are a slow moving object on offense. Without him, they will struggle even more.

It will be difficult for the Raiders to move the ball on this Bears defense, but I think over four quarters, they have a higher chance of scoring more points than Chase Daniel's Bears. 

Prediction: CHI 13, OAK 17

TB @ NO

When Drew Brees went down, most of us thought the NFC South was up for grabs. It turns out we overreacted. In relief of Drew Brees, Teddy Bridgewater has led the Saints to a 2-1 record, including wins over the Seahawks and Cowboys. With a win on Sunday, the Saints could take a two game lead atop the division. But it won't be easy, against the suddenly resurgent Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Tampa's offense was superb versus the Rams, racking over 400 yards of offense and scoring 54 points. However, their defense is making plays this year which they weren't last year. Through four games, the Bucs rank first in rushing defense, allowing just 59 yards per game on the ground this season, including just 16 yards to Todd Gurley. But it will even more difficult to shut down Alvin Kamara, who is at 100%. 

With a win, the Bucs can claim first place in the NFC South. However, Jameis Winston always has a turnover in him, and he has not won in New Orleans since the 2015 season. The Saints have not lost any momentum without Drew Brees, and they will add another dub to the win column.

Prediction: TB 17, NO 23

ATL @ HOU

What's going on with Atlanta? Their second straight 1-3 start to a season, averaging 18 points per game, and scoring just ten points at home against the Titans last week. With all the weapons at Matt Ryan's disposal, including Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, Mohamed Sanu, Devonta Freeman, and Austin Hooper, there is no reason to struggle as poorly as he has. Ryan has 6 picks on the season already, and his carelessness with the rock has cost his football team.

Houston has problems of their own as well. Losing at home to Cam Newton's backup was embarrassing, and it came as a missed opportunity to create a gap between them and the rest of the division. It starts with the passing game, and Deshaun Watson did not stretch the ballgown the field last week. He averaged just under 5 yards per pass attempt, and threw for just 160 yards. Atlanta's defense has struggled significantly, and they should provide an opportunity for an all-around bounce back game. 

Atlanta's season is on life support, and the Texans are playing as a team. I would be shocked if Atlanta pulled off the upset this week.

Prediction: ATL 17, HOU 20

MIN @ NYG

Daniel Jones faces his most difficult test yet in the NFL with the Vikings coming to town. It will be the greatest defense Jones has faced in his life, and Mike Zimmer will be ready to throw the kitchen table at the young gun. 

Cousins completed 75% of his passes for 233 yards, and did not turn the ball over. He also has a history in MetLife Stadium, where he played the Giants every season as a member of the Redskins. In Minnesota, he has an even better arsenal of weapons than he did in Washington, with Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen, Dalvin Cook, and Kyle Rudolph. While Cousins has played his worst football in his career to this point, the Giants defense will give him the opportunity to bounce back. New York ranks 25th in total defense, including allowing 280 passing yards per game. There will be a chance for the Vikings to rack up the scoreboard. 

For the Giants, Golden Tate returns from suspension, and he will add a downfield element to the New York passing game which hasn't been there. Mixing him in the fold with Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram could make for an explosive offensive attack, especially when Saquon Barkley returns from injury. But against a great defense like the Vikings, I'm not sure if the Giants will be up to the task. When they faced the Bills, the Giants were not up to the task, and were completely neutralized.

The Vikings are definitely on upset alert in Jersey this week. But their roster is collectively better than the Giants at this moment, and the Giants defense will not be up to par.

Prediction: MIN 22, NYG 19

BUF @ TEN

Josh Allen's health will be key this week. If he's ready to go, the Bills are favorites in Nashville. If Matt Barkley starts, it won't be easy to walk away with the win versus a very good Titans team.

There was plenty of good, bad, and ugly from Sunday in Buffalo. Josh Allen's turnovers were cringier to watch than Scott's Tots, but the Bills defense was stellar. Holding New England to just 16 points, 224 total yards, and Tom Brady to a QBR of 10 is a performance for the ages, which no one will remember, because the Patriots still prevailed. It is fair to expect more of the same against Tennessee, which is a significant downgrade from the Pats offense. 

The key to a Tennessee victory is forcing turnovers, and the Bills are outstanding at giving the ball away. Buffalo ranks top in the league with 10 giveaways in 4 games, and it will most likely be apparent this week no matter who is under center. And if playmakers like AJ Brown and Derrick Henry are involved and they get their touches like they did in Atlanta, they will cause problems for Buffalo's elite defense.

This game is certainly one to watch, and could prove to be a defensive struggle. In the end, I think Tennessee will carry their momentum from Atlanta into this week and earn their second consecutive victory.

Prediction: BUF 16, TEN 24

JAX @ CAR

Forget Nick Foles and Cam Newton, this is the best possible quarterback matchup we could get, featuring Gardner Minshew and Kyle Allen. Both of these teams are on two game win streaks with their new signal callers, and they both feel confident about the trajectory of their football teams going forward.

Quarterbacks have struggled to throw the ball against the Carolina defense, which allows the fewest passing yards per game, averaging just 157 yards allowed. Gardner Minshew will have his work cut out for him against a well-coached defense on the road. If the Jags can continue their momentum on the ground with Leonard Fournette, and Minshew can get protection, he can carve the Panthers defense and cash in another solid performance.

The key to a Carolina victory utilizing their top weapon, Christian McCaffrey. The star running back touched the ball 37 times for 179 total yards in their win over the Texans. McCaffrey is the workhorse, and with such a high density of touches for a game changer like him, he will wear out the Jacksonville defense and assert his will on them. 

The winner of this game will overcome a 0-2 start to be 3-2, which will be a remarkable turnaround for whoever ends up on top. I think Carolina will prevail, because they have more difference makers on the offensive side of the ball to take care of business.

Prediction: JAX 13, CAR 21

NYJ @ PHI

Adam Gase and the Jets were hoping to get quarterback Sam Darnold back this week after recovering from mono, but his status is still up in the air. If Darnold's spleen has enlarged, then Luke Falk will be starting his second straight game. After starting in Foxborough two weeks ago, he will have to play in Philly this week. That's absolutely brutal.

For the Eagles, they have the chance to move above .500 again with a very winnable game. It is an opportunity for Wentz to bounce back from a rather mediocre performance in Green Bay, and for Jordan Howard to continue his hot streak after scoring 2 touchdowns. But most importantly, it is an opportunity for the Eagles defense to step up. Through four weeks of play, the Eagles defense ranks dead last in passing yards allowed per game, and 27th in scoring. Their corners haven't been able to cover their bread with peanut butter, that's how poor their secondary has been. They cannot let Luke Falk of all people have his way on Sunday.

Prediction: NYJ 13, PHI 23

BAL @ PIT

Anything can happen in a division rivalry game, especially when the Ravens and Steelers square off. But this game doesn't have the same glamour as it once did, with the amount of Pittsburgh's injuries to key players, including Big Ben, and potentially, James Conner and Juju Smith Schuster as well.

After wiping the floor with Miami and Arizona (who have a combined record of 0-7-1), the Ravens have lost their last two games to Kansas City and Cleveland (who are a combined 6-2), and are looking to be a notch below the conference's elite. Lamar Jackson was exposed once again by an above average defense, and proved he cannot win a game or stay in a game with his arm. The Steelers can easily thwart the Ravens and cause an upset if they grab an early lead, and force Baltimore to chase the game. If the Ravens chase the game, Lamar Jackson will be forced to play quarterback, which is the ultimate Plan Z for the Steelers.

When analyzing the directions of these two teams currently, there is only one favorite. But stranger things have happened. I don't think anything about this game will be strange. The Ravens will outclass and out-execute the Steelers en route to a comfortable victory.

Prediction: BAL 23, PIT 14

NE @ WSH

The Patriots really got away with one in Buffalo. Scoring only 16 points and allowing 375 yards of offense to the Bills is not encouraging for the Pats when they play big time opposition. However, those concerns will be overshadowed this week when they face off against a winless football team in Washington.

After strangely throwing Dwayne Haskins into the fire last week, it looks like Haskins will start against the Patriots. We all know that Bill Belicheck's defense eat rookie quarterbacks for breakfast, and if Haskins is under center, he will be in for a long day. After throwing for just 107 yards and 3 picks against the Giants woeful defense, Haskins may not even make it through four quarters. 

After struggling in Buffalo last week, the Patriots have an opportunity to bounce back this week and wipe out one of the NFL's bottom feeders. It could get ugly.

Prediction: NE 37, WSH 10

ARZ @ CIN

Somebody's gotta win their first game this week, whether it be the 0-3-1 Arizona Cardinals or the 0-4 Cincinnati Bengals. While the win column won't reflect it, these teams have played good football in spurts this season, and one of them will finally cash in. It will also be a busy day for the scoreboard operators, because these teams combine to allow 56 points per games this season, and they are having difficulty stopping opposing offenses.

The Bengals will be significantly shorthanded without their deep threat, John Ross, who will be out for at least two months, and AJ Green who is still recovering from a summer injury. But Andy Dalton has played well in the first quarter of the season, and against a defense as terrible as Arizona, he can make weapons out of what he has in his arsenal right now. Only the Miami Dolphins are allowing more yards per game this season than the Arizona Cardinals, who can't stop anybody. If they fall behind early again, Kyler Murray will be forced to play catch up, which is not a promising situation for a rookie quarterback. 

After four weeks of unfortunate events, I think Zac Taylor and the Bengals will win their first game on Sunday. Arizona's cold streak will live on for at least another week.

Prediction: ARZ 26, CIN 30

DEN @ LAC

Denver was so close to finally getting over the line against the Jags, but after blowing a 17-6 lead, and allowing yet another walk-off field goal, Vic Fangio is still looking for his first win as a head coach, and Denver's season looks to be a wash already. 

For the Chargers to move to 3-2, they need to protect Philip Rivers and open up running lanes for Melvin Gordon. This shouldn't be too difficult against a Broncos defense struggling to collapse the pocket this season. They have five sacks this season, all of which came last week in their loss to Jacksonville. Now, with Bradley Chubb out for the year with a torn ACL, the Broncos pass rush is even more benign. Putting one and one together, it is safe to assume that Philip Rivers will have all day to throw in the pocket, and the returning Melvin Gordon won't have trouble finding lanes to exploit. 

If the Chargers are to catch up with the Chiefs at the top of the division, they need to win this game against Denver, which they fell short in last season. They should be able to get the job done this time, considering the level of competition. 

Prediction: DEN 17, LAC 31

GB @ DAL

Who is the owner of the Green Bay Packers? No, it's not Jerry Jones, it's Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers has dominated the Cowboys in his career, and always seems to lead his team to a game-winning drive in the fourth quarter when these teams meet. But these Packers are not the Packers of old. The arsenal of weapons available for Aaron Rodgers does not stack up with what he has had at his disposal before. With Devante Adams' status for Sunday up in the air, it will be up to one of the weakest receiving cores in the league to step up. Valdez-Scantling, St. Brown., and Allison aren't game-changers which can be counted on for Aaron Rodgers, and they don't match up well against the Cowboys elite defense. 

Over in Dallas, the offense is still looking for their rhythm. Throwing for 223 yards against the Saints won't earn you a $200 million contract. Dak Prescott can throw for over 400 yards against the worst defenses in the league, but it's time to show up again st big teams. The Packers may not have the best defense, but they are a perennial NFC contender, and they have had the Cowboys' number in recent years. If Prescott can play well, and Elliott runs the rock like his contract says he can, the Cowboys run away with this one. But Jason Garrett will find a way to keep it close.

Prediction: GB 19, DAL 24

IND @ KC

Don't look now, but Mahomes was held to no touchdown passes in Detroit last week. It marks the first time he has been held without a touchdown pass since the Divisional Playoff last season...against the Colts. That being said, he still threw for 315 yards, and the Chiefs came from behind to beat the Lions. It is going to be astronomically difficult to hand the Chiefs a loss this season the way Mahomes and the offense is ticking.

For the Colts, their loss to the Raiders is a massive blow in their early season hopes to win the division. They allowed 188 rushing yards to the Raiders, and were chasing the game for four quarters. Every opponent the Chiefs have played this season have been forced to chase the game already, because Kansas City constantly jumps out to large leads. But if the Colts can contain the Chiefs from a fast start on offense as the Lions did, the Colts can hang around. That being said, it is unlikely that the Colts can keep Mahomes from dominating in the air like they were able to do in the playoffs last year, and the Chiefs offense may be even better. The Chiefs will run the scoreboard again and stay undefeated for another week.

Not gonna lie, I'm not thrilled that the Colts let me down after I locked them up to beat the Raiders last week. As a result, I have decided to lock against them this week to vent my feelings in a healthy way. This is my Lock of the Week.

Prediction: IND 17, KC 37

CLE @ SF

After stomping on Baltimore, the Browns have their first division lead since 2014. This time, they found a way to win on the ground, through Nick Chubb's 165 yards and 3 touchdowns. If the Browns can run the ball consistently and get Odell Beckham more touches as well, this offense will be unstoppable. But they face a stiff test against a formidable 49ers defense, which ranks third in the league in yards allowed per game. 

The key to a San Francisco victory is pressuring Baker Mayfield. The Browns offensive line has already allowed 12 sacks in 4 games, and the 49ers have an underrated pass rush featuring Nick Bosa and Dee Ford on the edges. If they can collapse the pocket, the Browns offense can be neutralized. 

We should be in for an entertaining contest on Monday night, but I think the home team will remain undefeated and maintain their lead atop the NFC West.

Prediction: CLE 20, SF 24


Thank you for reading Franchise Quarterback! I hope you enjoyed the Predix and stay tuned for weekly Predix every Wednesday for breakdowns of all the upcoming games!