Written by Sam DeCoste
The time has finally come. Tom Brady makes his return to Gillette Stadium Sunday night, looking to become the first quarterback in NFL history to defeat all 32 teams, including the franchise he conquered the league with for 20 years. But don't let Bucs-Patriots distract you from a stellar slate of Week 4 games. The Browns take on the Vikings, the undefeated Panthers battle the Cowboys, Andy Reid returns to Philadelphia with the Chiefs to take on the Eagles, and the NFC West splits up for a pair of divisional showdowns between the Cardinals and Rams, and the Seahawks and 49ers.
Enjoy the picks!
Here are my records from last week:
Week 3 record: 11-5
Lock of the Week record: 0-3
Regular season record: 31-17
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| Jaguars @ Bengals |
A win would put the Bengals at 3-1 to end the quarter-season mark, and thrust the Bengals right into the playoff conversation early on. The Bengals pulled out a gritty win on the road against the Steelers a week ago, and are finding a groove offensively. Joe Mixon has carried the ball at least 18 times in all 3 games for at least 69 yards, and has 286 total yards on the season. The Bengals are running with success and diversifying the offense, and showed improvement protecting Joe Burrow. The Steelers racked zero sacks on Burrow in Week 3. The Jaguars defense is a much better matchup than the Steelers were, in terms of Burrow feeling secure and protected in the pocket. Burrow will be standing tall in the pocket and will have time to find his reads. Ja'Marr Chase has been a touchdown machine as a rookie, scoring in all 3 games he has played so far, and Tyler Boyd is more than capable of holding down the fort whether or not Tee Higgins is ready to come back.
Trevor Lawrence's rude awakening into the NFL continued against the Cardinals, when he added 2 interceptions to his season total. Lawrence is tied for the most interceptions in the NFL with 7, with a total QBR of 23.1, the 30th best in the NFL. He is still adjusting to the speed of the pro game, while his head coach is still figuring out how to lead the Jaguars into a new age. Urban Meyer finally unleashed James Robinson in Week 3, feeding him the ball 21 times for 134 yards. It's no surprise that the Jaguars were much more competitive last week than they have been all season, because Robinson was featured at the level he was a year ago. Robinson needs a similar role against the Bengals to control the line of scrimmage, and limit Lawrence's responsibilities. For the Jaguars to pull off the upset, they have to flip their game scripts. They rank bottom in the league in turnover differential with a margin of -8, which is 5 turnovers disparate from the second-worst mark behind them. Lawrence is turning the ball over on an alarmingly frequent level while the Jaguars have created just one takeaway in 3 games. The Jaguars defense needs to force more turnovers and play a starring role on a weekly basis to make Lawrence more comfortable.
The last two quarterbacks drafted first overall are set to face off for the first time in their careers, but the state of these two teams seems to be trending in opposite directions. Lawrence is still struggling to read the game at the NFL level while his coaching is inhibiting his growth, while Burrow and the Bengals are ascending. If the Bengals are a legitimate playoff threat, this is a must-win game.
Prediction: Jaguars 17, Bengals 30
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| Browns @ Vikings |
The Browns recorded a complete performance against the Bears in Week 3. The offense finished with 418 total yards while the defense tallied 9 sacks, and allowed a whopping 47 yards. Defensively, the Browns wreaked havoc on Justin Fields' debut. They rank 3rd in total defense this season, and are built well to compete against a talented Vikings offense. The Browns will look to collapse the pocket on Kirk Cousins, and force him to move outside the pocket to throw off the offense's rhythm. On offense, the Browns dominate the line of scrimmage with the ground game. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt can control the tempo against the Vikings, and chew the clock up to keep Cousins on the sideline as much as possible. Odell Beckham is back in the offense as well, and recorded 5 catches for 77 yards in his first game back. With him back, the Browns can dictate the tempo of the game and still threaten the Vikings defense on the home-run ball.
Minnesota's winless run finally came to an end against Seattle, and the Vikings have a chance to even up their record with a win over the Browns. Fans will be tracking Dalvin Cook's status, who missed Week 3 as he recovered from an ankle injury. Alexander Mattison stepped up in Cook's place, and virtually looked just like the natural starter. Mattison touched the ball 32 times for 171 yards, and was unstoppable against the Seahawks in a must-win game. The Vikings will be just fine with or without Cook, and the pass catchers are still reputably dominant. The likes of Justin Jefferson, Adam Theilen, and even an ascending KJ Osborn, have a chance to frustrate and confuse a Browns secondary full of new faces still learning to play with one another. Comparatively speaking, the Vikings have more boom potential than the Browns on offense, and have more playmakers on the outside to win a shootout.
While the Vikings are not garnering nearly as much Super Bowl buzz as the Browns, they match up very well, and this game is one of the most difficult to predict. Homefield advantage is significant for the Vikings, and may be the separating factor. The Vikings will find themselves in the middle of another heart-pounder in the 4th quarter, but will find a way to win this one.
Prediction: Browns 23, Vikings 27
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| Panthers @ Cowboys |
The undefeated Panthers march into Dallas without Christian McCaffrey. The star running back left last week's game with a hamstring injury, and will miss at least the next 3 games. The Panthers proved they can compete without him a year ago, but that was when Mike Davis filled in. The next man up in the backfield this season for the Panthers is none other than Chuba Hubbard. He carried the ball 11 times fo 52 yards, while Royce Freeman also took 5 handoffs for 17 yards. The truth is McCaffrey is such a dominant threat at his position that Hubbard and Freeman will not be able to match his level of production no matter how schematic Matt Rhule wants to be. Against a run-of-the-mill Cowboys defense, Sam Darnold will play the deciding role. He has to distribute the ball across the yard for 4 quarters to keep up with a potent Cowboys offense, and stretch the ball downfield with DJ Moore and Robby Anderson. Defensively, the Panthers are the NFL's best unit, and have to show out to keep the Cowboys at bay. They have to rattle Dak Prescott in the pocket, be disciplined in coverage against the Cowboys receivers, and create turnovers.
Any NFC East team at 2-1 is a hot commodity, but the Cowboys certainly look the part. They laid 41 points on the Eagles last week after winning a field goal game against the Chargers. Prescott is already a frontrunner for Comeback Player of the Year, and is leading the NFL's 5th best offense. They face another stiff test against the Panthers defense, but are confident they have the weapons to dominate. Tony Pollard is seeing his volume increase in the offense, and is proving to be a stellar compliment to Ezekiel Elliott. The two combined for 28 touches for 155 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Eagles, and can help control the line of scrimmage throughout. The running game opens the passing game up even more, especially for Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb downfield. The Cowboys offense tends to fall off in games against top defenses with uncharacteristic turnovers and knuckle-headed playcalling, but they are the more dominant unit than the Panthers defense with a wider variety of explosive playmakers capable of changing the game.
This is a prove-it game for both teams that they are legitimate NFC contenders. With McCaffrey, the Panthers would have a much better chance. Without him, the Cowboys are definitive favorites, but more than likely will win this one in a nail-biter.
Prediction: Panthers 23, Cowboys 24
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| Chiefs @ Eagles |
Kansas City's September went from bad to worse last week when they dropped a home game to the Chargers. Albeit, both of Kansas City's losses combine for a scoring margin of -4, but the Chiefs are in last place in the AFC West and already have ground to make up on their divisional opponents. They have a shot to bounce back against an Eagles team coming off a short week which was just carved by Dak Prescott and the Cowboys. Patrick Mahomes, as silly as it sounds, has to protect the football better this week. He has thrown 3 interceptions in the last 2 games, each of which are ugly to watch. He also has to reintegrate Tyreek Hill, whose role has diminished in the last 2 weeks. Hill has just 8 catches in that span for 70 yards, and his limited volume has had a direct impact on Kansas City's offensive struggles. Despite the Chiefs scoring 59 points in their 2 defeats, their offense slumps at multiple points during games while their opponents march up and down the field on their defense. The Chiefs defense ranks 30th in the league in yards allowed, and 26th in sacks. They have to generate plays of their own and make up for the ground the offense has lost in September.
The Eagles were beaten up on by the Cowboys on Monday night, and Jalen Hurts struggled. He tossed 2 interceptions, including a pick-6 to start the second half, virtually putting the game out of reach with 2 quarters to go. The root of Philadelphia's impotence in Week 3 was the lack of a ground game. After Hurts' team-leading 9 carries, Miles Sanders carried the ball twice. Two carries for the lead back should be unacceptable for the rookie coaching staff. The onus cannot fall only on Hurts, it has to fall on the entire offense. As long as the running game is in play, the Eagles offense is diverse with playmakers more than capable of exploiting a very vulnerable Chiefs defense. Jalen Reagor and Quez Watkins have the speed to break free in the Chiefs secondary, while the combination of Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert can win on third down and red zone situations. The Eagles defense can certainly cause trouble for Mahomes with their abilty to rush the passer and collapse the pocket. Mahomes can shred the Eagles on the blitz, but will struggle if the Eagles can force him to stay in the pocket and go down.
Andy Reid will make his second return to Philadelphia since leaving to coach the Chiefs, desperate for a win after back-to-back losses. The Eagles could be frisky, but the Chiefs are the unquestioned superior team and should win this one in their sleep.
Prediction: Chiefs 27, Eagles 21
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| Colts @ Dolphins |
Carson Wentz returned in time for the Titans, with limited gains. He completed just over half his pass attempts for 194 yards, leading the Colts offense to a 16 point performance. Without TY Hilton, the Colts are begging for a downfield threat capable of opening up the perimeter of the offense. When the Titans defense slowed down Jonathan Taylor, the passing game had no response to compete. This week may be one of the few occasions that the Colts have the better offense than their opponents, but they have to finally assert themselves. Taylor has not had more than 17 carries or 64 yards this season, which is a concerning sign for an offense lacking explosiveness. He has to be the focal point of the offense again in order for the Colts to move the ball, and control the tempo against the Dolphins.
Against the Raiders, Jacoby Brissett proved he can still lead an NFL offense in relief of Tua Tagovailoa. While the passing game was limited to 197 yards, Brissett had 32 completions, and the running game tallied 133 yards on 27 carries. The Dolphins phenomenally executed their methodical offensive approach of chewing up the clock and slowly moving the chains. That approach can work again with the Colts in town, and frustrate the Colts offense by keeping them on the sidelines as much as possible. The Dolphins were much more clinical on third zone and in the red zone as well, forcing the Raiders to overtime despite a backup quarterback leading an already limited offense. Once again, the Dolphins defense has to take the starring role in Tagovailoa's absence with sacks and turnovers to keep the team competitive when he comes back. Against a banged up Indianapolis offensive line, the Dolphins have to improve from their 4 sacks on the season and put the pressure on Wentz to make quick decisions.
This is a must-win game for the Colts, who would plummet to 0-4 with another loss. The Colts have underachieved to this point, but are not the level of an 0-4 team. While the Dolphins are one of the last teams any team wants to play needing a win, the Colts need this one bad. Wentz should have more plays in his locker than Brissett, and take care of business.
Prediction: Colts 24, Dolphins 20
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| Lions @ Bears |
Justin Fields' debut went as horribly as anybody could have imagined. The rookie took 9 sacks and totaled a singular passing yard of offense over 4 quarters. The onus doesn't completely fall on Fields. He's a rookie. But his own decision making combined with below-average offensive line play and a mediocre receiving core completely derailed his debut before he ever really had a shot. Fields is now also battling a hand injury he suffered against the Browns. With the Lions in town, Fields has a chance to rebound and have a much better performance than he did a week ago, but the Lions are a competitive team in spite of their roster qualms. The key is David Montgmery's production. He needs more than the 10 carries he took a week ago, because 34 yards rushing from the engine of the offense is the explanation for such a pathetic offensive showing. Fields is still a rookie and can't lean on his arm to win games on his own yet, he needs a complimentary running game to open up play-action passes to Allen Robinson and Darnell Mooney.
The Lions were so close to upsetting the Ravens and winning their first game of the season, but it took a record-breaking field goal in NFL history to knock them down to 0-3. It was such a heartbreaking way to lose a game in which the Lions played well enough to win. In spite of the loss, the Lions can carry more positives into Week 4, and play with the confidence that they can be competitive and give their divisional rivals fits. But in order for the Lions offense to grow, D'Andre Swift needs to see more game action. Last week, Swift carried the ball a season-high 14 times for 47 yards. That level of output is far from the level the Lions need him to be, and he could diversify the offense if he has the chance. From the air, Jared Goff has the offense in a rhythm that takes some stopping. The Lions offensive line is keeping Goff upright very well, and they can offset the Bears pass rush and allow Goff to stand tall in the pocket and go through his reads.
Three weeks into the season, the Lions have played well enough to win at least one game, while the Bears are still mulling where their franchise is as they figure out when to pass the torch to Fields. The Lions play better as a team than the Bears this season, and Fields is not ready to start, especially considering the state of his supporting cast. The Lions should execute well enough to win their first game of 2021.
Prediction: Lions 23, Bears 16
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| Titans @ Jets |
The Titans had to fight for it, but they downed their division rival Colts in Week 3. Derrick Henry carried the ball 28 times for 113 yards, leading the charge for the Titans offense. Henry will likely see a similar volume of carries again against the Jets with AJ Brown's status up in the air. Brown suffered a hamstring injury against the Colts a week ago, and could potentially this week's game and some. The Titans still have the offensive firepower to handle the Jets, especially if Henry plays at the level he already has. And perhaps Brown's absence will thrust Julio Jones into the spotlight for far more targets. Jones has caught just 12 passes this season, and is still looking for a breakout performance, and his first touchdown as a Titan. He is still an unquestioned number one receiver in the NFL, and has a chance to show out against a mediocre Jets defense. The Titans do not have to be too creative without Brown, but the Jets will look to load the box on Henry and double cover Jones. Ryan Tannehill will have to be comfortable distributing the ball across the yard, otherwise the Jets will have him right where they want him.
The wheels are falling off for the Jets, who were shutout by the Broncos last week. Zach Wilson's growing pains adjusting to the NFL are real, and he is struggling to generate offense with the unit he has around him. He also leads the league in interceptions along with Trevor Lawrence. They can only go up from their performance a week ago, especially against a vulnerable Titans defense. It falls on the running game to take the pressure off Wilson, and move the chains over 4 quarters. Michael Carter is the established number one back, and should share the load with Ty Johnson for at least 20 total carries. From there, play-action opens up to Corey Davis and Keelan Cole in the intermediate passing game. Wilson has the arm strength to be a downfield gunslinger, but has to cool down before he starts throwing the ball down the yard. Before he thinks about airing the ball out, he has to prioritize keeping the ball away from the opponent. Robert Saleh should be preaching no turnovers this week, and protecting the football as the paramount goal against the Titans, who rank last in the NFL in takeaways.
Brown's injury may have a more crippling effect on Tennessee's offense than we are prepared to believe against the Jets, but the Titans are still the far better team. The Titans will edge the Jets in a mostly comfortable win.
check back with receiver injuries
Prediction: Titans 27, Jets 17
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| Texans @ Bills |
Josh Allen and the Bills are back. The offense was outstanding against Washington a week ago, reaching 481 yards of offense and blowing the Football Team out of the water by a 43-21 scoreline. Allen scored 5 total touchdowns, and looked like his runner-up MVP self. They face the Texans with a chance to move to 3-1, and to avenge a historic playoff defeat from 2 postseasons ago. The Bills can beat the Texans in a myriad of ways, whether Allen slings the ball 50 times in an air raid, or if they diversify the offense with 20-plus touches for Devin Singletary and Zach Moss. In the passing game, Allen has more weapons than just Stefon Diggs as well. Emmanuel Sanders caught a pair of touchdowns last week, and Cole Beasley recorded 11 catches. The Texans will have their hands full handling Buffalo's offensive skill players. On defense, they need to put more consistent pressure on the quarterback. The Bills registered only one sack against Washington after recording 6 against Miami, and need to generate consistent pass rush for when they face elite level quarterbacks very soon.
The Texans will fly to Buffalo coming off 3 extra days of rest from their Thursday night loss to the Panthers, riding the hot hand of Davis Mills. In relief for Tyrod Taylor, Mills was efficient and didn't make any mistakes. He completed 19 of 28 passes for 168 yards and threw a touchdown pass, but the offense was still very much limited. In the 6 quarters Taylor started under center, the Texans offense was dynamite, but has diminished since he left the Browns game. The Texans can still move the ball on the Bills defense, especially if they lean on the multiple running backs they have at their disposal. Mark Ingram is taking the bulk of the carries while Philip Lindsay and David Johnson are playing complimentary roles, but they can control the tempo on offense with high a volume of touches. The backs will have to be Mills' main source of offense, because the weapons behind Brandin Cooks on the receiver depth chart is not explosive enough to keep up with the Bills in a potential high-scoring game.
The gap between both these teams is as wide as there is for any game in Week 4. The Bills are building some momentum, and the Texans are floating in space. There's only one way this game is turning out.
Prediction: Texans 16, Bills 37
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| Giants @ Saints |
The Saints made easy work of Mac Jones and the Patriots, winning 28-13 in Foxborough. The defense took the ball away 3 times, setting up Jameis Winston and the offense in prime field position throughout the game. Offensively, the Saints were much less impressive. The Saints tallied 252 yards of offense, including just 110 through the air. Winston didn't turn the ball over, and led an efficient day in the office. The Giants defense is much more impotent than the Patriots, which could mean a breakout game for the offense. Alvin Kamara is poised for 25-plus touches and a busy day from scrimmage, and Winston will inevitably be more aggressive with the ball than he was in New England. The Saints offense runs through Kamara, but Winston's aggression could hurt them if the Saints receivers struggle to create separation.
At 0-3, the Giants need a win badly. The team is desperately looking for a spark, especially from Saquon Barkley. Last week, Barkley carried the ball a season-high 16 times for 51 yards. Either he is still not fully recovered from his ACL tear last season, or the Giants are limiting his volume out of a heavy passing agenda. The scope of the Giants offense can completely change if Barkley receives a high amount of touches early on, especially against a stingy Saints defense against the run. The Saints defense is capable of containing New York's receivers, and the Giants need high input from Barkley, and their role players to step up in order to keep up. The Giants could only put 14 points on the scoreboard against the Falcons, and the Saints are a much less opportune matchup to collect their first win of the season.
Desperation will bring the most out of the Giants who are still looking for their first win of the season. The Saints could be bound for another emotional letdown if they let their guard down, but Sean Payton is the unquestioned superior coach against Joe Judge. The Saints should be ready, and take care of business.
Prediction: Giants 17, Saints 20
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| Football Team @ Falcons |
The Football Team fell flat on its face in Buffalo, losing 43-21 in an offensive palooza. The defense allowed 481 yards, recorded zero sacks on Josh Allen, and the offense turned the ball over 3 times. The Bills jumped out to an early 21-0 lead and Washington couldn't dig themselves out of an early deficit. They have to start fast and avoid another early deficit to claw out of, otherwise they could lose control of the game script again. Taylor Heinicke does not have the weapons at his disposal to keep up in a shootout, or completely rely on his arm. Antonio Gibson and JD McKissic are Heinicke's best friends from the backfield, and early touches for them will cool down the offense and keep them chugging along. On defense, Washington has to regroup after being put on blast and generate pressure on Atlanta. The backbone of the Football Team is their pass rush, and recording zero sacks back-to-back weeks is a recipe for disaster.
The Falcons won their first game of the season, beating the Giants in New Jersey on a last-second field goal. Early on, the Falcons offense is unquestionably struggling in the absence of Julio Jones. Cordarrelle Patterson has become the focal point of Atlanta's attack from the backfield and the passing game, while Kyle Pitts is developing into a go-to target for Matt Ryan already as a rookie tight end. The Falcons have the weapons to cause chaos for defenses, but are struggling to find rhythm game-to-game, and the offensive line is struggling to protect Ryan in the pocket. The Washington defense has been exploited already this season, but they are still very much capable of wreaking havoc for the Falcons offense. Ryan has to throw the ball out quickly to tire the Washington pass rush, and put his receivers in open space. Calvin Ridley is especially dangerous after the catch if Ryan can find him.
Washington is still an NFC East competitor, and is more than capable of bouncing back against the Falcons. On paper, Washington's defense should dominate the line of scrimmage and contain the Falcons offense, and carry the Football Team to a victory.
Prediction: Football Team 23, Falcons 21
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| Cardinals @ Rams |
Matt Stafford delivered for the Rams with 343 yards and 4 touchdown passes against the Bucs. Out-dueling Tom Brady and the Bucs is a testament to how the Rams offense is developing with Stafford under center. They can move to 4-0 if they knock off the Cardinals, a team they haven't lost to since 2016. The Rams have found success against the Cardinals in the past thanks to a diverse offensive attack, and being able to control the line of scrimmage. Darrell Henderson is trending towards returning this week, and to give a boost back into the Rams backfield. The Rams are much more dangerous with Henderson and Michel splitting carries and forcing defenses to account for multiple backs as well as the passing game. Against the Cardinals, the Rams have been able to start fast and force the Cardinals to play catch-up the rest of the game. That game script bodes well for Aaron Donald to be a wrecking machine in Arizona's backfield, and shut the offense down from the inside.
In the NFC West, the Cardinals are living in the Rams' shadows as another 3-0 team to start the season, despite multiple impressive showings. Kyler Murray has been outstanding, and has played at the level of an MVP candidate. A win over the Rams would turn even more heads, and firmly thrust the Cardinals into Super Bowl conversations. They have to score early and keep themselves in the contest, to keep their offensive approach intact and prevent the game from running off-script. The Cardinals have improved from a year ago on the outside, with complimentary receivers to take the pressure of DeAndre Hopkins. AJ Green, Christian Kirk, and Rondale Moore caught a combined 14 passes against the Jaguars in Week 3, and have unlocked a new dimension of the offense that was nonexistent in 2020. The Cardinals also are built to put pressure on Stafford with JJ Watt and Chandler Jones coming off both edges, and disrupt the offense at its core. It is crucial for Arizona to put pressure on Stafford and play their part, and prove that the defense can hold up their end for what is a proven high-octane offense.
Since Sean McVay took over as head coach, the Rams are 8-0 against the Cardinals, including 4-0 against Kliff Kingsbury. The Rams have Arizona's number, and have been able to force Kingsbury off his gameplan every time they've faced off. Until Kingsbury can prove he can out-coach McVay, there's only one way this game is going. This is my Lock of the Week.
Prediction: Cardinals 17, Rams 27
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| Seahawks @ 49ers |
If the 49ers hadn't left 37 seconds on the clock for Aaron Rodgers, the 49ers would have had a much better chance to beat the Packers and move to 2-1 instead of 1-2. Nonetheless, it took a last second field goal to separate them from a win, and the 49ers still played well enough to win. But the offense is struggling to generate chunk plays consistently. The 49ers are still grappling with losing Raheem Mostert for the season, and have been unable to replicate his production with Trey Sermon. Against the Seahawks, the 49ers have to be prepared for a potential high scoring affair. Now is the time for breakout performances from George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk, and see the 49ers skill position players on offense step up against a division rival. On defense, the 49ers have to collapse the pocket on Russell Wilson and force him to step into his throws, and take him down from the inside. The 49ers sacked Rodgers just once last week, and face a much more daunting challenge containing an explosive mobile passer this week.
The Seahawks defense let Wilson and the offense down in Week 3, surrendering 453 yards, allowing the Vikings to convert 9 of 14 third down attempts, and allowing them to snap the ball 73 times. The offense is explosive enough to lay 30-plus points on San Fran, but the defense has to make an impact of its own sufficiently enough, or else every drive Wilson leads has to result in a touchdown to keep the Seahawks in the game. Wilson's mobility will help him extend plays outside the pocket, where he can exploit the 49ers defense on the blitz. DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett have both started the season strong, and put the San Fran defense on notice downfield. The Seahawks defense has the power to decide the game, especially if they are able to register takeaways from Jimmy Garappolo. The 49ers also allowed 4 sacks against the Packers last week, and the Seahawks can grab the game by the horns if they are able to force Garappolo outside the pocket, and to make quick decisions.
With the Rams and Cardinals running full steam ahead, interdivisional wins in the NFC West will be crucial for the Seahawks and 49ers to catch up behind them. This game is a close call, but Wilson is the ultimate tiebreaker. He will carry the Seahawks to a bounce-back win.
Prediction: Seahawks 28, 49ers 21
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| Steelers @ Packers |
Aaron Rodgers has been the source of plenty of mental obstacles for Packers fans over the course of the last 5 months, but he has proven the last 2 games he is as good as ever. On Sunday night, he delivered a vintage MVP performance with a comeback drive against the 49ers with only 37 seconds on the clock to march down the field and take the win. The Steelers defense presents their toughest matchup of the season, and one they may have to be creative to maneuver around. Despite Pittsburgh's latest struggles against the aiders and Bengals, the Steelers under Mike Tomlin step to the plate against elite competition, and will certainly bring their A-game against the reigning MVP. The Packers receivers have to create separation during scramble drills when the Steelers defense inevitably forces Rodgers outside the pocket. Rodgers will instinctively search for Davante Adams, who caught 12 passes against the 49ers. But no Packers receiver not named Adams caught more than 3 passes.
It's only September, and the Steelers offense is already unraveling by the seams. Ben Roethlisberger attempted 58 passes against the Bengals, turned the ball over twice, and led the Steelers to scoring just 10 points. Despite Tomlin's efforts, the Steelers have been unable to unleash Najee Harris on the ground as they imagined they would be able to. Harris has been unable to surpass 45 rushing yards in a game, thanks to limited running room generated by the Steelers offensive line. A standout game from the offensive line would change the entire scope of Pittsburgh's offense, if Narris is able to control the game on the ground. As long as Roethlisberger is throwing 40-plus passes per game, the Steelers offense is doomed. He does not have the arm strength to win a chess match with Rodgers on the other sideline.
The Steelers proved against the Bills that they can compete with elite offenses, and come up with crucial plays at crucial moments. But in their winless homestand against the Raiders and Bengals, the offense proved they are as impotent and imbalanced as 2020. Rodgers may struggle early on, but the Packers will take control of this one by the fourth quarter.
Prediction: Steelers 13, Packers 24
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| Ravens @ Broncos |
Justin Tucker broke Lions hearts with a record-breaking NFL field goal, and lifting the Ravens to 2-1. Ravens fans must be tired of close contests going down to the final play, but they are staring at another one against the 3-0 Broncos. The Ravens offense will look to dominate the line of scrimmage with a strong ground game, but they will likely have to find a more balanced approach to outsmart an excellent Broncos defense. In 3 games, the Broncos rank 2nd in yards allowed, 2nd against the run, 3rd against the pass, and 1st in scoring. Lamar Jackson and Latavius Murray will not be able to gallop around as they would against an inferior opponent. The Broncos defense will load the box and force Jackson to beat them with his arm, and move the chains with Marquise Brown, Sammy Watkins, and Mark Andrews. Brown in particular has to regroup after back-breaking drops against the Lions, and find space in Denver's secondary for Jackson to lay out the deep ball.
The undefeated Broncos have a chance to move to 3-0 and silence the doubters, who have called on their weak strength of schedule as a diminishing factor to their strong start. The Broncos beat the Giants, Jaguars, and Jets to start the season, each of which are winless entering Week 3. A win over the Ravens would catch everyone's attention, and firmly cement the Broncos as a playoff threat. They face a Ravens defense that allows 393 yards per game, and has significantly struggled to get off the field. Teddy Bridgewater has been excellent to this point as Broncos starter, but has to step up against a playoff caliber opponent to firmly establish himself and the offense as legitimate. The Broncos should be able to spread the Ravens corners out thin with the playmaking abilities of Tim Patrick, Courtland Sutton, and Noah Fant. The ground game featuring Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams has been complimentary to this point, and could beat the Ravens at their own game if the Broncos backs can generate production.
On paper, the Broncos may actually be a better put-together squad. But the Ravens are a mentally sound group built to win in the trenches and pull out close games. The Ravens will snatch a gritty road win, and will decide the game within the last minute once again.
Prediction: Ravens 26, Broncos 21
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| Buccaneers @ Patriots |
After 19 months away, Tom Brady will make his long-awaited return to Foxborough in hopes of taking down the team he won 6 Super Bowls with, and spent 20 years as one of the greatest quarterbacks to ever play. Patriots fans will be able to enjoy a warm homecoming when Brady runs out of the tunnel to take them on, but that's where the fun will stop. Brady is out for blood against his former team, and will want to win this game as much as any Super Bowl he has ever played in. He marches into Gillette Stadium surrounded by possibly his greatest supporting cast in his career. Brady has Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Tyler Johnson, Scottie Miller, and former Patriot Rob Gronkowski to throw to, and has the chance to carve the Patriots defense into shreds. The Bucs fell to the Rams last week in large part thanks to inconsistent defense, but Brady still threw for 432 yards. Expect Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette to play a larger role than the combined 9 carries they saw against the Rams. But whatever approach the Bucs offense decides to take, they will seek out to dominate the line of scrimmage.
Rookie quarterback Mac Jones is facing one daunting mountain to climb. In just his 4th career start, he is tasked with slaying the greatest quarterback in franchise history and possibly league history, in his return to his old stomping grounds. Jones will have to out-duel Brady and the Bucs with a limited arsenal of weapons around him. Despite New England's offensive limitations, the offense should be confident going against a Bucs defense that has allowed an average of 402 yards per game to start the season. While Jones is not a gunslinger capable of dialing 50-plus passes in a winning effort, the Patriots can control the tempo in their own way. The team can play bully-ball with a run-heavy approach, and lean on Damien Harris for 4 quarters. But the Patriots have to play a complete game of offense to stand a chance. They can ill afford giving Brady extra possessions, short fields, or going 3-and-out. The Patriots have to put points on the board and take the ball away on defense, and win in all 3 phases of the game.
What a Hollywood twist it would be if Jones and the Patriots were somehow able to shock the world this Sunday night. But to this point, homefield advantage has meant diddly squat for the Patriots, who are 0-2 at Gillette so far this season. Brady will be ready to sling the ball across the yard against his former team, and stick it to Bill Belichick. There's only one way this game is turning out.
Prediction: Buccaneers 34, Patriots 20
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| Raiders @ Chargers |
All the way in 3rd place in the AFC West, the Chargers are coming off a shocking road upset in Kansas City. Justin Herbert tossed 4 touchdown passes, and the defense forced 4 turnovers and held the Chiefs to just 3 points at halftime. The Chargers are here to win now, and come against the Raiders fully expecting to handle them. Late last season, the Chargers upset the Raiders in Las Vegas and spoiled their rival's playoff push down the stretch. The Raiders defense does not match up to defend Herbert, or contain LA's array of weapons. There may not be home-run ability on the perimeter for the Chargers, but they can wear down the Raiders defense with long, methodical drives fueled by Keenan Allen receptions out of the slot, and Mike Williams catches up in the air.
Both offenses are capable of running up and down the field, but the game will come down to who makes the fewest mistakes, and possibly who has the ball last. Herbert will make fewer mistakes than Carr, an the Chargers will have the ball last.
Prediction: Raiders 21, Chargers 24
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