Courtesy of Mark Konezny |
With opening day just one sleep away, it's time I finally reveal my playoff picks for the 2021 NFL season. I will tell you who will be battling it out in the postseason come January, and who will collect the awards at the end of the season. I have spent all summer long crunching the numbers and calculating the 14 teams who you will see in the playoffs, all the way down to the 2 squads who will square off on Super Bowl Sunday.
If you are new to Franchise Quarterback, welcome! If you are a returning reader, thank you for your continued support, and you know that I am not afraid to be bold in my preseason predictions.
You will inevitably disagree with most of my rankings, probably because they are scarily accurate, and you are ill-prepared for my hard-hitting, objective analysis. Send any grievances to @thesamdecoste on Twitter. Praise is also welcome if you have any to spare. And if you send me harsh enough criticism, who knows, I may just change my mind.
Notable achievements from my Season Preview last year:
No surprise that the Chiefs finish atop the AFC. They should rack up at least 14 wins again this season, and dominate the regular season. Patrick Mahomes and the offense will be electric as always, and they will be virtually unbeatable at Arrowhead Stadium this year. With a bolstered offensive line now featuring Orlando brown and Joe Thuney, Mahomes could be even deadlier from the pocket than ever before. The defense is still solid, especially in the front and back with Chris Jones rushing the passer and Tyrann Mathieu holding down the fort in the secondary. The depth in playmakers behind Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill is the only potential red flag for the offense to slip, especially if one of them goes down. But the Chiefs are the runaway favorites to win the AFC West, and finish as the top seeded team in the conference for the 3rd time in 4 years.
Super Bowl champions usually experience a hangover the following season and struggle to replicate the success they found the season before. But the Buccaneers are returning all 22 starters from their Super Bowl campaign and are far and away the strongest team in the NFC. Tom Brady at 44 years old is poised to play even better than he did in his first season in Tampa, after fully recovering from a secretly torn MCL in 2020, and still performing at a championship level. Brady's weapons are as lethal as any arsenal in the league with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, and Scottie Miller. Their defense is outstanding in its own right, and is loaded from top to bottom. Continuity to the extreme could be equally disadvantageous for the Bucs if they come out complacent, but returning a team this talented can only be good news for a team trying to go back-to-back. Winning the division should be a formality for a Bucs team that hasn't won the NFC South since 2007, and a Super Bowl repeat is just as attainable.
There is a palpable The Last Dance vibe surrounding the Packers, that this may be the last run at a Super Bowl for Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay. Rodgers played the best season of his career at 37 years old in 2020, and the reigning MVP is poised for another stellar year. Davante Adams is among the NFL's best pass catchers, Aaron Jones is quietly an elite running back, and the offensive line is still solid even after losing center Corey Linsley in free agency. The Packers have the firepower to win their third straight NFC North title and engineer another deep playoff run. It comes down to performing against other winning teams in the NFC, and matching the intensity from their opponents when it matters the most. The Packers are winless in their last 4 NFC Championships, and have not played in a Super Bowl since the 2010 season. If Rodgers registers another MVP-level season, the Super Bowl is certainly still within reach.
The NFC West will be hotly contested as it typically is, but the Rams will narrowly pull ahead of the pack in 2021. The addition of former Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford will ignite life back into the offense after two seasons of inconsistent quarterbacking. Stafford is surrounded by the best weapons in his career, and fits seamlessly into Sean McVay's system. The defense will inevitably regress from its ranking as the top unit in the league last year after losing defensive coordinator Brandon Staley, but the likes of Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey will be game-wreckers all season long. The Rams are tremendously balanced, and have sky-high potential if Stafford is as terrific as his price tag for the team to trade for him, they are the unquestioned best team in the division, and a prime challenger to take down the Bucs.
The jury is out on second-year head coach Joe Judge and third year quarterback Daniel Jones, but the Giants are primed for a breakout season. Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney join a receving core already starring Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton, and Evan Engram, and Saquon Barkley is expected to return after tearing his ACL last season. The defense has the personnel to be a much improved unit, especially if their stars perform at the level they did last season, including Leonard Williams and James Braberry. Signing Logan Ryan and Adoree' Jackson slid under the radar in the offseason and should bolster the secondary as well. It also plays to their advantage that the Giants reside in the NFL's weakest division. The competition for the NFC East will go down to the wire as per usual, and is there for the taking for the G-Men.
The 49ers are back and ready to roll in the NFC West. Injuries spoiled their 2020 campaign, but their starters are back and healthy, and their roster is among the most balanced in the NFC. Whoever is quarterbacking for the 49ers down the stretch will have an abundance of options on the outside including George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, and Deebo Samuel, and Raheem Mostert leading the charge from the backfield. The defense guided the 49ers to the Super Bowl 2 seasons ago, and is still the backbone of this team. Nick Bosa is the team's best player, and will make an immediate impact on the defensive line to wreak havoc on opposing quarterbacks all season long, and de facto foster the development of Javon Kinlaw, and open rushing lanes for Arik Armstead on the other end of the defensive line. Whether Jimmy Garappolo holds onto his job as the starting quarterback or not will inevitably dictate the fate of the 49ers this season, for better or worse. San Francisco's floor is a Wild Card team, but they can reach heights at the level of their 2019 selves if they pick up where they left off before last season's injuries.
Only the Chiefs, Bills, and Titans ranked higher in total offense than the Vikings last season. The Vikings offense is vicious, and stars many of the most dynamic playmakers in the entire league. Dalvin Cook is a workhorse in the backfield, and Justin Jefferson is a rising star receiver paired alongside the sure-handed Adam Theilen. Despite the stigma surrounding Kirk Cousins, he is a statistics maniac, and consistently puts up formidable numbers as a quarterback. If Cook, Jefferson, and Theilen find open space, they will make their opponents pay, and the Vikings can average 30 points per contest. But the Minnesota defense has to rediscover their form from the early years of Mike Zimmer's tenure. The Vikings defense finished 27th in total defense, 28th in sacks, and 29th in scoring last season. The returns of Eric Kendricks and Danielle Hunter should spark significant improvement, and reestablish the Vikings defense as one to be feared on a weekly basis. The Vikings are far from a complete team, but their offensive firepower and expected defensive improvement should be enough to push them to the playoffs for the 4th time in 7 years.
Russell Wilson and the Seahawks seem to apex midseason on a yearly basis, and run out of the gas in the playoff stretch. Wilson's concerns about the Seahawks team-building strategy over the last half-decade are valid and apparent on this iteration of the team. The aerial attack is the new identity of the Seahawks offense, and should be a high-scoring unit once again. DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are dominant receivers on the outside, and Cris Carson is a bruiser in the backfield when healthy. But the offensive line continues to be a liability, and the defense is still short of playmaking ability apart from Bobby Wagner and Jamal Adams. Wilson has consistently been able to overcorrect for impotent defense, and Pete Carroll has been able to drag below-average teams to division titles and Wild Card spots, and they could see similar success in 2021. But the Seahawks are looking up at the 49ers and Rams in the West, and should consider themselves lucky if they are able to sneak into the NFC playoffs.
Just Missed:
Awards
MVP: Patrick Mahomes
Coach of the Year: Sean McDermott
Defensive Player of the Year: Derwin James
Comeback Player of the Year: Christian McCaffrey
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Najee Harris
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Micah Parsons
You will inevitably disagree with most of my rankings, probably because they are scarily accurate, and you are ill-prepared for my hard-hitting, objective analysis. Send any grievances to @thesamdecoste on Twitter. Praise is also welcome if you have any to spare. And if you send me harsh enough criticism, who knows, I may just change my mind.
Notable achievements from my Season Preview last year:
- Predicted the Chiefs to go 14-2
- Predicted the Steelers to win AFC North
- Predicted the Bills to win AFC East
- Predicted the Ravens to earn the 5 seed in the AFC
- Predicted the Buccaneers to earn the 5 seed in the NFC
- Predicted 8/14 playoff teams correctly
- Predicted 3/8 division winners correctly
- Predicted the Cowboys to go 12-4
- Predicted the Cardinals to go 11-5
- Predicted the Falcons to go 10-6
- Predicted the Packers and Rams to miss the playoffs
AFC
1. Kansas City Chiefs (15-2) |
No surprise that the Chiefs finish atop the AFC. They should rack up at least 14 wins again this season, and dominate the regular season. Patrick Mahomes and the offense will be electric as always, and they will be virtually unbeatable at Arrowhead Stadium this year. With a bolstered offensive line now featuring Orlando brown and Joe Thuney, Mahomes could be even deadlier from the pocket than ever before. The defense is still solid, especially in the front and back with Chris Jones rushing the passer and Tyrann Mathieu holding down the fort in the secondary. The depth in playmakers behind Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill is the only potential red flag for the offense to slip, especially if one of them goes down. But the Chiefs are the runaway favorites to win the AFC West, and finish as the top seeded team in the conference for the 3rd time in 4 years.
2. Buffalo Bills (14-3) |
The AFC's best chance at knocking off the Chiefs rests in Orchard Park. Josh Allen and the Bills are poised for another amazing season, and are looking to close the gap between them and the Chiefs. The Bills offense is built to outscore anybody, with the likes of Stefon Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders, and Gabriel Davis. Contributions from Devin Singletary and Zach Moss in the backfield could open up the offense even more. The weak link from Buffalo's 2020 campaign was the pass rush. The Bills finished 15th in sacks last season, but added Gregory Rousseau in the draft to put the pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Their secondary is still strong as well, led by Tre'Davious White and Micah Hyde. The gap between the Bills and the field in the AFC East is as wide as any division in football, and they should wrap up their 2nd division title comfortably. But the gap between them and the Chiefs still exists.
3. Baltimore Ravens (12-5) |
The Ravens are playoff regulars in the Lamar Jackson era, and should stroll to another double-digit win season. They are the most run-heavy team in the NFL, and their ground game is still built to dominate during the regular season. Jackson's mobility and playmaking ability through the air and on the ground will continue to be a nightmare for the AFC to defend, and Gus Edwards is capable of leading the backfield. Although it wouldn't hurt to sign a veteran to complement Edwards now that JK Dobbins is out for the season. While the Ravens will dominate against sub-.500 teams as they always do, they have to prove they can perform against other playoff teams. They finished 3-4 against teams with winning records a season ago, and they are not better-equipped to beat winning teams this year. Baltimore's ceiling is another division title, but they could fall as low as third-best in the AFC North if defenses figure them out quicker than the Wild Card this season.
The 2021 Titans fit the mould of a dream team that only Madden gamers could dream of. The combination of a 2,000 yard rusher along with quite possibly the greatest wide receiver in a generation, as well as a young and explosive AJ Brown, makes for a terrifying offense. Ryan Tannehill is quietly a top 10 performing quarterback in his own right over the last 2 seasons, and he has another All-Pro caliber weapon available to him. The question becomes whether the Titans will experience growing pains with a pair of elite wideouts despite their identity as a running football team. The defense finished 28th in total defense and 30th in sacks last season, and must improve to carry the Titans farther than the first round of the playoffs. The Titans don't face much competition within the division, and should secure another AFC South title. But the other top teams in the AFC are built to obliterate Tennessee's mediocre defense.
Justin Herbert in his sophomore season is poised to send the Chargers back to the playoffs. After breaking the record for touchdown passes as a rookie, Herbert lines up behind one of the strongest offensive lines in the NFL after the Chargers signed All-Pro center Corey Linsley and drafted tackle Rashawn Slater. He still has Keenan Allen and Mike Williams to throw to, and Austin Ekeler is one of the most underrated running backs in the league. But the true X-factor in the AFC playoff picture is Derwin James. After injuries sidelined him for the last 2 years, James could make an instant impact back in the lineup for the Chargers defense. He was voted All-Pro as a rookie safety, and could change the scope of this team if he is healthy and as spectacular as he was in 2018. As long as Herbert's development continues on the trajectory it seems to be heading, and rookie head coach Brandon Staley can overcome the game management and special teams gaffs that have haunted his predecessors, the Chargers are a playoff team.
The Mac Jones era is officially underway in New England. Bill Belichick sent shockwaves across the NFL when he sent Cam Newton packing, opting to start a rookie quarterback to lead the Patriots back into postseason prominence. Jones is a seamless fit into the offense, and should play well with a stronger set of weapons than Newton's arsenal in 2020. Jonnu Smith, Hunter Henry, Nelson Agholor, and Kendrick Bourne will contribute right away and help Jones thrive in the intermediate passing game. The ground game led by Damien Harris and James White will complement the short passing game, and the Patriots defense is poised for a bounce-back campaign. The talent in New England is noticeably improved from last season, and it will reflect in the win-loss column. Barring masterclass coaching at a level none of us have ever witnessed from even Belichick, the Patriots are behind the Bills in the AFC East. But the Wild Card is a reasonable expectation.
Finishing in the final Wild Card spot is Cleveland's floor, but their ceiling is much higher. The Browns boast the NFL's strongest offensive line, feature an offense rich with playmaking ability at every level, including Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, Jarvis Landry, and Austin Hooper. Odell Beckham, Jr. returns after his season was cut short in 2020, and could completely change the scope of the Browns offense if he is any bit as dynamic as he has proven to be. The engine of this team is unquestionably Baker Mayfield, who is set for his best season ever in the NFL. This season will mark the first time in Mayfield's career that he will not be learning a new playbook under a new head coach. The defense could see as many as 7 new starters this season, which could stir growing pains early in the year. But if the Browns defense put all their new pieces together sooner than later, this team is one of the most balanced in the AFC, and an instant championship contender.
Just Missed:
Denver Broncos (10-7)
Pittsburgh Steelers (9-8)
Miami Dolphins (8-9)
4. Tennessee Titans (11-6) |
The 2021 Titans fit the mould of a dream team that only Madden gamers could dream of. The combination of a 2,000 yard rusher along with quite possibly the greatest wide receiver in a generation, as well as a young and explosive AJ Brown, makes for a terrifying offense. Ryan Tannehill is quietly a top 10 performing quarterback in his own right over the last 2 seasons, and he has another All-Pro caliber weapon available to him. The question becomes whether the Titans will experience growing pains with a pair of elite wideouts despite their identity as a running football team. The defense finished 28th in total defense and 30th in sacks last season, and must improve to carry the Titans farther than the first round of the playoffs. The Titans don't face much competition within the division, and should secure another AFC South title. But the other top teams in the AFC are built to obliterate Tennessee's mediocre defense.
5. Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) |
Justin Herbert in his sophomore season is poised to send the Chargers back to the playoffs. After breaking the record for touchdown passes as a rookie, Herbert lines up behind one of the strongest offensive lines in the NFL after the Chargers signed All-Pro center Corey Linsley and drafted tackle Rashawn Slater. He still has Keenan Allen and Mike Williams to throw to, and Austin Ekeler is one of the most underrated running backs in the league. But the true X-factor in the AFC playoff picture is Derwin James. After injuries sidelined him for the last 2 years, James could make an instant impact back in the lineup for the Chargers defense. He was voted All-Pro as a rookie safety, and could change the scope of this team if he is healthy and as spectacular as he was in 2018. As long as Herbert's development continues on the trajectory it seems to be heading, and rookie head coach Brandon Staley can overcome the game management and special teams gaffs that have haunted his predecessors, the Chargers are a playoff team.
6. New England Patriots (11-6) |
The Mac Jones era is officially underway in New England. Bill Belichick sent shockwaves across the NFL when he sent Cam Newton packing, opting to start a rookie quarterback to lead the Patriots back into postseason prominence. Jones is a seamless fit into the offense, and should play well with a stronger set of weapons than Newton's arsenal in 2020. Jonnu Smith, Hunter Henry, Nelson Agholor, and Kendrick Bourne will contribute right away and help Jones thrive in the intermediate passing game. The ground game led by Damien Harris and James White will complement the short passing game, and the Patriots defense is poised for a bounce-back campaign. The talent in New England is noticeably improved from last season, and it will reflect in the win-loss column. Barring masterclass coaching at a level none of us have ever witnessed from even Belichick, the Patriots are behind the Bills in the AFC East. But the Wild Card is a reasonable expectation.
7. Cleveland Browns (10-7) |
Finishing in the final Wild Card spot is Cleveland's floor, but their ceiling is much higher. The Browns boast the NFL's strongest offensive line, feature an offense rich with playmaking ability at every level, including Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, Jarvis Landry, and Austin Hooper. Odell Beckham, Jr. returns after his season was cut short in 2020, and could completely change the scope of the Browns offense if he is any bit as dynamic as he has proven to be. The engine of this team is unquestionably Baker Mayfield, who is set for his best season ever in the NFL. This season will mark the first time in Mayfield's career that he will not be learning a new playbook under a new head coach. The defense could see as many as 7 new starters this season, which could stir growing pains early in the year. But if the Browns defense put all their new pieces together sooner than later, this team is one of the most balanced in the AFC, and an instant championship contender.
Just Missed:
Denver Broncos (10-7)
Pittsburgh Steelers (9-8)
Miami Dolphins (8-9)
NFC
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (15-2) |
Super Bowl champions usually experience a hangover the following season and struggle to replicate the success they found the season before. But the Buccaneers are returning all 22 starters from their Super Bowl campaign and are far and away the strongest team in the NFC. Tom Brady at 44 years old is poised to play even better than he did in his first season in Tampa, after fully recovering from a secretly torn MCL in 2020, and still performing at a championship level. Brady's weapons are as lethal as any arsenal in the league with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, and Scottie Miller. Their defense is outstanding in its own right, and is loaded from top to bottom. Continuity to the extreme could be equally disadvantageous for the Bucs if they come out complacent, but returning a team this talented can only be good news for a team trying to go back-to-back. Winning the division should be a formality for a Bucs team that hasn't won the NFC South since 2007, and a Super Bowl repeat is just as attainable.
2. Green Bay Packers (12-5) |
There is a palpable The Last Dance vibe surrounding the Packers, that this may be the last run at a Super Bowl for Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay. Rodgers played the best season of his career at 37 years old in 2020, and the reigning MVP is poised for another stellar year. Davante Adams is among the NFL's best pass catchers, Aaron Jones is quietly an elite running back, and the offensive line is still solid even after losing center Corey Linsley in free agency. The Packers have the firepower to win their third straight NFC North title and engineer another deep playoff run. It comes down to performing against other winning teams in the NFC, and matching the intensity from their opponents when it matters the most. The Packers are winless in their last 4 NFC Championships, and have not played in a Super Bowl since the 2010 season. If Rodgers registers another MVP-level season, the Super Bowl is certainly still within reach.
3. Los Angeles Rams (12-5) |
The NFC West will be hotly contested as it typically is, but the Rams will narrowly pull ahead of the pack in 2021. The addition of former Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford will ignite life back into the offense after two seasons of inconsistent quarterbacking. Stafford is surrounded by the best weapons in his career, and fits seamlessly into Sean McVay's system. The defense will inevitably regress from its ranking as the top unit in the league last year after losing defensive coordinator Brandon Staley, but the likes of Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey will be game-wreckers all season long. The Rams are tremendously balanced, and have sky-high potential if Stafford is as terrific as his price tag for the team to trade for him, they are the unquestioned best team in the division, and a prime challenger to take down the Bucs.
4. New York Giants (9-8) |
The jury is out on second-year head coach Joe Judge and third year quarterback Daniel Jones, but the Giants are primed for a breakout season. Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney join a receving core already starring Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton, and Evan Engram, and Saquon Barkley is expected to return after tearing his ACL last season. The defense has the personnel to be a much improved unit, especially if their stars perform at the level they did last season, including Leonard Williams and James Braberry. Signing Logan Ryan and Adoree' Jackson slid under the radar in the offseason and should bolster the secondary as well. It also plays to their advantage that the Giants reside in the NFL's weakest division. The competition for the NFC East will go down to the wire as per usual, and is there for the taking for the G-Men.
5. San Francisco 49ers (11-6) |
The 49ers are back and ready to roll in the NFC West. Injuries spoiled their 2020 campaign, but their starters are back and healthy, and their roster is among the most balanced in the NFC. Whoever is quarterbacking for the 49ers down the stretch will have an abundance of options on the outside including George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, and Deebo Samuel, and Raheem Mostert leading the charge from the backfield. The defense guided the 49ers to the Super Bowl 2 seasons ago, and is still the backbone of this team. Nick Bosa is the team's best player, and will make an immediate impact on the defensive line to wreak havoc on opposing quarterbacks all season long, and de facto foster the development of Javon Kinlaw, and open rushing lanes for Arik Armstead on the other end of the defensive line. Whether Jimmy Garappolo holds onto his job as the starting quarterback or not will inevitably dictate the fate of the 49ers this season, for better or worse. San Francisco's floor is a Wild Card team, but they can reach heights at the level of their 2019 selves if they pick up where they left off before last season's injuries.
6. Minnesota Vikings (11-6) |
Only the Chiefs, Bills, and Titans ranked higher in total offense than the Vikings last season. The Vikings offense is vicious, and stars many of the most dynamic playmakers in the entire league. Dalvin Cook is a workhorse in the backfield, and Justin Jefferson is a rising star receiver paired alongside the sure-handed Adam Theilen. Despite the stigma surrounding Kirk Cousins, he is a statistics maniac, and consistently puts up formidable numbers as a quarterback. If Cook, Jefferson, and Theilen find open space, they will make their opponents pay, and the Vikings can average 30 points per contest. But the Minnesota defense has to rediscover their form from the early years of Mike Zimmer's tenure. The Vikings defense finished 27th in total defense, 28th in sacks, and 29th in scoring last season. The returns of Eric Kendricks and Danielle Hunter should spark significant improvement, and reestablish the Vikings defense as one to be feared on a weekly basis. The Vikings are far from a complete team, but their offensive firepower and expected defensive improvement should be enough to push them to the playoffs for the 4th time in 7 years.
7. Seattle Seahawks (10-7) |
Russell Wilson and the Seahawks seem to apex midseason on a yearly basis, and run out of the gas in the playoff stretch. Wilson's concerns about the Seahawks team-building strategy over the last half-decade are valid and apparent on this iteration of the team. The aerial attack is the new identity of the Seahawks offense, and should be a high-scoring unit once again. DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are dominant receivers on the outside, and Cris Carson is a bruiser in the backfield when healthy. But the offensive line continues to be a liability, and the defense is still short of playmaking ability apart from Bobby Wagner and Jamal Adams. Wilson has consistently been able to overcorrect for impotent defense, and Pete Carroll has been able to drag below-average teams to division titles and Wild Card spots, and they could see similar success in 2021. But the Seahawks are looking up at the 49ers and Rams in the West, and should consider themselves lucky if they are able to sneak into the NFC playoffs.
Just Missed:
Arizona Cardinals (10-7)
Awards
MVP: Patrick Mahomes
Coach of the Year: Sean McDermott
Defensive Player of the Year: Derwin James
Comeback Player of the Year: Christian McCaffrey
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Najee Harris
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Micah Parsons
Super Bowl Matchup
Buffalo Bills defeat Green Bay Packers
In the AFC, the Bills will close the gap between themselves and the Chiefs, take another leap from last season's performance and return to the Super Bowl for the first time since 1993. Josh Allen's development has ascended the Bills into championship contention, and the possibility that he could be even better in 2021 is terrifying for the AFC. Allen's connection with Diggs is lethal enough, but the offense is stacked for another prolific campaign. The addition of Gregory Rousseau in the draft should make an immediate impact on the defensive line and fill the stopgap which shut the Bills out of the Super Bowl last season. Sean McDermott is still a top head coach, and is poised to guide this franchise back to the Super Bowl spotlight.
The NFC slate behind the Buccaneers is incredibly competitive, but the Packers will be the team to emerge and knock off the reigning champs. Aaron Rodgers is destined to wear a new uniform in 2022, and this season looks set to be his last as a Packer. If The Last Dance taught us anything, it is the inevitably that Rodgers and his ragtag team of All-Pro offensive superstars are poised to carry the Packers to Super Bowl glory. With Jordan Love waiting in the wing, Rodgers will follow up the best season of his career with another phenomenal performance in 2021, and finish what he started in Green Bay.
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