The Caveats to Tanking in the NFL

Courtesy of Ben Liebenberg/NFL

The competitive fabric of the NFL is facing a threat unlike any it has ever faced before. 

Tanking. The concept is simple: to lose intentionally and elevate draft stock. Tanking allows teams to take advantage of the league rules to position themselves to select talented college prospects in the draft. In other words, fielding apathetic rosters to lose on purpose. In a sports stratosphere fused with analytics, tanking is becoming much more integrated into the fabric of professional sports, especially the NFL. Unfortunately for the NFL, tanking is best designed to work in the NFL, as the worst teams clinch the higher draft picks without the implementation of a lottery.

The term, "tanking" is highly ingrained into professional sports jargon, and it has become a regular practice in the NFL. It is believed that the New York Jets sought out to tank the 2020 NFL season by losing out to clinch the first overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, and select a highly touted unicorn prospect coming out of Death Valley. Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence is overwhelmingly projected to be selected first overall in the 2021 NFL Draft, and is pegged to be one of the greatest college quarterback prospects in a decade. The Jets were on track to clinch the first pick in the draft all season and draft Lawrence prior to snapping their 13 game losing streak in Week 15, and winning two straight games in December. 

While the Jets averted the infamous 0-16 mark and showed the heart when the odds were stacked against them, much of the fanbase is dismayed and aghast that the team played themselves out of potentially drafting a generational talent. As a result, the Jacksonville Jaguars are on the clock, and they select first overall in this spring's draft. 

The Jaguars clinched the first overall pick on Sunday with their 41-17 defeat at home to the playoff-hungry Chicago Bears, along with the Jets' 23-16 win over the Browns. During Jacksonville's Week 16 game, Jaguars fans watching at TIAA Field cheered for the Bears as the Jaguars fell behind. It was a surreal reality to witness under 17,000 masked Jaguars fans braving the COVID-19 pandemic openly cheering on Jacksonville's opponents, but the fans have their sights set on a potentially brighter future rather than winning a meaningless Week 16 game.

Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence is projected to be selected first overall by the Jacksonville Jaguars in the 2021 NFL Draft this April (Courtesy of Getty Images).

The concept of professional sports teams losing on purpose defies a myriad of morals clauses, disrupts the competitive balance of sports, and is practiced to benefit the worst performing teams. In Europe, professional soccer leagues punish the worst performing teams by relegating them to the second division, which costs teams revenue and compromises the front office's ability to scout and attract highly talented prospects. In America, tanking has become commonplace across all four professional sports leagues, but especially the NFL. 

How to Tank

To assemble a perennial loser for a year, front offices must purge their roster of speakable talent on their rosters. There's no need to harbor flashy running backs, shutdown corners, franchise tackles, star receivers, or ferocious pass rushers if the team is fulfilling a self-neglecting prophecy. Tanking teams will often trade veteran players in bunches, to weed down the roster and acquire ransoms of future draft capital and late round pick compensations. The strategy likewise employs sitting out of free agency and cutting aging veterans to stash boatloads of cap space in future offseasons.

The whole premise of tanking is to field as uncompetitive a team as possible, setting the players to be outmatched every single game by their opponents. Any talented player on the roster can foil the front office's prophecy, which is what tempts the front office to act and ship them away. 

The dark art of tanking dates as far back as 1983 in the NBA, when the Houston Rockets conceded their season was over with a losing record midseason, and fielded their bench players more prominently to land a higher draft pick. But tanking became much more widespread in the 2010s, across all professional sports leagues. The Houston Astros and Chicago Cubs became textbook case studies of tanking and later acquiring star players and draft capital for several years until their rosters ascended into championship caliber territory. The Philadelphia 76ers championed the cause in the NBA as "Trust the Process" by recording 47 total wins in 3 years until accumulating valuable assets in the draft to build a playoff contender.

Who could forget 2011, when the Colts sought out to "Suck for Luck?" The 2011 Indianapolis Colts finished 2-14 after a season-ending neck injury to quarterback Peyton Manning, and later selected Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck first overall in the 2012 draft. In 2014, teams and fanbases were seeking to "Suck for the Duck," referring to Oregon quarterback and Heisman Trophy winner Marcus Mariota. The 2017 New York Jets finished 5-11 and traded up to the third overall pick in the 2018 draft and drafted USC quarterback Sam Darnold, fulfilling the "Scam for Sam." The 2019 Miami Dolphins earned the fifth overall pick in the 2020 draft and selected Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, following a campaign in which they "tanked for Tua."

Selling a Losing Product

Fans aren't stupid. They can read the tea leaves when their favorite team is punting the season away. 

It is incredibly disheartening for a fanbase to concede their team is uninterested in being competitive and throw an entire season. Whether better days are ahead or not, the fans have to suffer through deliberate mediocrity, and they are forced to buy out on the campaign. Why bother watching your team play to lose?

Season ticket holders pay the price of admission to watch their favorite team win. It is disrespectful to the fanbase to throw their season and waste their season ticket holders' money and time at a stadium. Going to an NFL game is supposed to be the experience of a lifetime like the league markets itself, but selling a losing product soils the authenticity and gratification of game day. Tanking's disparaging effect is most prevalent on ticket sales, stadium attendance, and fan morale more so than on-field performance. 

Of course, there is a considerable party of fans who actively root for their team to lose for a higher draft position, whether that begins in Week 1 or Week 15. But rooting for a team on the basis that losing today yields winning tomorrow is wildly flawed and ignorant. The prospect of landing the next Peyton Manning or John Elway is exciting, but the fanbase has to trust that the front office will hit the jackpot. Not every franchise is lucky enough to hit the jackpot.

Not a Sure Thing

Tanking for an upstart college phenomenon is a colossal gamble. Sure, they could pan out in the pros. But they don't always turn out to be the player the fanbase expects them to be. 

Clinching the number one overall pick is hardly a ticket to sustained success in the future, as recent history certainly suggests. While it may be too early to evaluate 2020 first overall pick Joe Burrow, the track records of recent number one overall picks in the NFL are quite a mixed bag. The previous ten number one overall draft selections combine for a rather shaky success record.

• Kyler Murray is in his second year as the quarterback for the Arizona Cardinals. Murray won Offensive Rookie of the Year honors in his first season and was voted into the Pro Bowl in his second season. The former Oklahoma Sooner is a multidimensional threat and an electrifying quarterback, but it is too early to discern Murray's ceiling, and if the Cardinals found their man.
• Baker Mayfield is in his third year as the starting quarterback for the Cleveland Browns after being selected first overall in 2018 out of Oklahoma. In his rookie season, Mayfield broke the record for most passing touchdowns by a rookie with 27 touchdown passes (which was later broken in 2020 by Justin Herbert). Mayfield followed an electrifying rookie campaign with a sophomore slump in 2019, throwing 22 touchdowns to 21 interceptions in a disappointing 6-10 campaign for the Browns. Mayfield is hoping to lead the Browns back into the playoffs after 18 years, but his three years have been defined by inconsistency.
• Texas A&M Defensive end Myles Garrett is the last non-quarterback to be selected first overall, being drafted in the 2017 draft by the Cleveland Browns. Garrett is a two time Pro Bowler and was a second-team All-Pro in 2018, and has established himself as one of the premier pass rushers in the NFL and a consistent contender for Defensive Player of the Year every season. The pass rusher signed a five year contract extension worth $125 million last August, and the Browns believe his best is yet to come.
• Jared Goff was selected first overall by the Los Angeles Rams in the 2016 NFL Draft. Goff earned Pro Bowl nods in his second and third seasons as the Rams starting quarterback after a disastrous rookie season. Goff quarterbacked the NFC's highest scoring offense en route to a Super Bowl appearance in the 2018 season, but has since regressed in the two seasons removed. Rams head coach Sean McVay has openly criticized his quarterback for inconsistency and costly errors, and it is clear that the Rams organization's patience with the fifth year starter drafted out of California is growing thin. Goff has developed from young college star to an NFL veteran pocket passer, but has failed to demonstrate he is an elite level starter.
• Jameis Winston was selected first overall by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the 2015 NFL Draft out of Florida State. Winston quarterbacked for the Buccaneers from 2015 to 2019, but the organization elected to part ways after a five year spell. The New Orleans Saints signed Winston in the 2020 offseason to backup Drew Brees. While productive in his time in Tampa, Winston's legacy is defined by his recklessness with the football. Winston threw 88 interceptions in five seasons as the Buccaneers quarterback, including 30 interceptions in his final season as a starter in the 2019 campaign. There are a myriad of ways to classify if a draft prospect panned out as a "bust," and one of them is if the player does not earn a second contract with the team that drafted him. 
• Defensive end Jadaveon Clowney was drafted by the Houston Texans first overall in 2014 out of South Carolina. In seven seasons in the NFL, Clowney has played a full 16 game schedule just once, and has just 32 career sacks. While Clowney earned three Pro Bowl nods and a second-team All-Pro in 2016, he was traded by the Texans to the Seattle Seahawks in the 2019 season, and signed with the Tennessee Titans as a free agent in the 2020 season. As a number one overall pick, Clowney was touted to be a dominant force on the edge for years. His career, while still alive, has left much to be desired.
• Offensive tackle Eric Fisher is the only offensive lineman to be selected first overall in the past ten years, and was taken by the Kansas City Chiefs in the 2013 draft. Fisher was expected to be a franchise tackle for the Chiefs, but struggled mightily out of the gate in his NFL career. But the Chiefs remained loyal to him, and he became a contributor on Kansas City's Super Bowl winning team in 2019 as the left tackle. Eight seasons later, Fisher is still Kansas City's starter at left tackle, but offensive linemen selected number one overall are expected to be Hall of Fame caliber talents. Fisher earned Pro Bowl nods in 2018, but has yet to reach the heights the Chiefs were hoping.
• Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck was the closest college prospect to Peyton Manning and John Elway, and touted as one of the best college quarterbacks in the last 40 years. The Indianapolis Colts drafted Luck first overall in the 2012 draft, but he announced his retirement prior to the 2019 season at the age of 29. Luck played just five and a half seasons in the NFL after battling injuries for most of his career. Luck was sacked 174 times in 86 career games, and suffered gruesome injuries over the years, including a torn shoulder labrum, torn cartilage, lacerated kidney, torn abdominal muscles, and multiple concussions. In his short career, Luck was named a Pro Bowler four times, led the league in touchdown passes in 2014, earned Comeback Player of the Year honors in 2018, and led poorly assembled Colts teams to four playoff appearances. Luck was hailed as a transcendent talent and he was stellar when he was on the field, but his career is a cautionary tale of a franchise failing to protect their prized asset.
• Auburn quarterback Cam Newton was selected by the Carolina Panthers with the first pick of the 2011 draft. Newton is the only number one overall pick in the past ten seasons to win the MVP, be named first-team All-Pro, and earn three Pro Bowl nods. He led the 15-1 Panthers to a Super Bowl appearance in 2015 after scoring 45 touchdowns and strolling to an MVP win, and seemingly ascended into superstar status. Injuries and shaky mechanics as a passer forced Newton to regress following the 2015 season for the remainder of his time in Carolina, and he was released by the Panthers after missing most of the 2019 season. Newton's prime was as electrifying as any quarterback to play in the NFL, but his style of play declined as his body deteriorated. 
• Sam Bradford was selected by the St. Louis Rams out of Oklahoma first overall in the 2010 draft, but his time as a Ram was quite short-lived. Bradford was named Offensive Rookie of the Year after setting the record for most completions by a rookie in the league history, but torn ACLs in back to back seasons sidelined him for 25 straight regular season games between 2013 and 2014. The Rams traded Bradford to the Philadelphia Eagles in 2014 in exchange for quarterback Nick Foles and late round draft picks. Bradford also made pit stops with the Minnesota Vikings and the Arizona Cardinals, but his career as a Ram fell on its face. 

Andrew Lock was selected by the Indianapolis Colts first overall in the 2012 NFL Draft (Courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas).

Why is it so difficult for a number one overall pick in the NFL to change the course of a franchise's history? Well, the NFL is not the NBA. Football is a team sport, with 22 starters across offense and defense. Twenty year old quarterbacks are not equipped to stand in the pocket and throw behind deplorable offensive lines, or throw touchdown passes to inadequate receivers. Quarterbacks need supporting casts to thrive, which comes down to the front office. Coaching, surrounding cast, and scheme fit matters in the NFL, and young prospects need guidance and development to take their talents to the pro level. 

Injuries unfortunately play a factor as well in derailing promising careers for college stars. Bengals rookie quarterback Joe Burrow suffered an ACL and MCL tear in Week 11, and Bengals fans will hope his career is not already over before it could even get started. Bradford and Luck are now out of the NFL due to their injury histories, and Newton and Clowney are not the same players they used to be. There are a number of factors that can be attributed to career-derailing injuries, including disgraced offensive line play, holding onto the football longer to extend plays, and seasons on seasons of excruciating hits. Of course, these are not factors general managers necessarily take into account when they are on the clock. But injuries have ended several promising careers, especially for number one overall picks in the past ten years.

The final consideration is that players are simply not good enough, and the scouts were flat-out wrong. Clowney never reached the heights of a game-wrecking pass rusher, Fisher is an entry level tackle, and Goff has regressed from dependable system quarterback to glorified game manager, just to name a few. Newton is the only number one pick in the last ten years to be named first-team All-Pro just once in his career, and only two of the seven quarterbacks taken have played in a Super Bowl, neither winning it. Fans can decide which of the last ten first overall picks truly panned out and which did not, but few if any of them are worth tanking an entire season for. 

You Play to Win the Game

Tanking is not a foolproof operation. While ownership may advocate for tanking internally, and the front office can execute mass transactions to field hapless teams, the players and coaches will not exert any less effort than a roster shrined with All-Pros. 

Professional athletes are wired to compete, and set out to win every time they step onto the field. Players in the locker room could not care less about setting the plate for a rookie to come in next year and turn fortunes around. Athletes in the NFL have to overcome the odds and make costly sacrifices to go pro, and it takes even more just to stay in the league. Every time a player takes the field, they are putting their name and their resume on tape for the other 31 NFL teams to evaluate. Superstars aside, most players in the NFL are playing for their jobs every single time they step between the hashes.

The Associated Press calculated that the previous 7 Super Bowl champion rosters parted ways with an average of 20.4 players between their Super Bowl win and their Week 1 game the following season. That amounts to 38.5 percent of the roster turning over. If the champion franchise of the NFL disjunct with 20 players in a given offseason, imagine how many players the other 31 ball clubs move away from. 

Jobs are on the line every week, and every chance a player has to step on the field is opportunity to prove they are cut out to play in the NFL. It does not matter if a franchise perceived to be tanking fields a wildly untalented team if the players maintain their edge, and compete on every play. This is professional football. Even replacement level starters are competent, and they compete on every snap. A lack of talent may not win championships, but hard work beats talent when talent doesn't work hard enough. Personal motivation supersedes tanking.

Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Gardner Minshew celebrating a touchdown pass to wide receiver Laviska Shenault, Jr. (Courtesy of Douglas DeFelice).

Likewise, coaches are fighting for their living every week, and the effort and production from their players is a direct reflection of them. The 2020 NFL regular season is not over yet but there are already three head coaching vacancies, and that total could double as early as next Monday when the regular season is over.  Every day as a coach in the NFL is a chance to prove one's worth as a potential head coach in the future, and there are only 32 head coaching jobs to be had. That includes head coaches, coordinators, special teams coaches, coaching assistants, trainers, and conditioning staff. The evaluation process for coaches never ends, and they have no room to tank. 

As the great former Jets head coach Herm Edwards once said, "you play to win the game!" It doesn't matter what ownership wants, or the quality of roster the general manager provides their head coach, the coaching staff wants to win every last game. Any less effort exerted from the coaches would suggest quitting on the team. Quitting on the team is not an option in the NFL, especially for coaches, even if the organization is actively trying to tank. Doing otherwise would cater to a toxic culture of losing, which carries over from season to season. 

The analytics won't account for this, but losing has a damaging effect that takes great overcoming in the locker room. Constant losing can poison a team culture, and bleed from the regular season into the following offseason minicamps, practices, training camps, and even the following regular season with a new cast of characters. Winning isn't a switch that coaches and players can flip and suddenly revert out of tank mode. Winning is a culture, and it must be nurtured and developed by the coaches and the players already in the locker room to contend, even with a star studded roster. 

The Jaguars may have the first overall pick, but they have been competitive all season long despite losing thirteen straight games. Six of Jacksonville's thirteen defeats in 2020 were by a single score, and the team fought hard all season long to win every time they stepped on the field. Similarly, the Jets were winless for fourteen weeks before defeating the playoff-built Rams and Browns in back-to-back games. The Jets would have clinched the first pick in the 2021 draft if they punted the final three games and accepted 0-16. But the likes of Sam Darnold, Jamison Crowder, Marcus Maye, the 53 players on the roster, and head coach Adam Gase don't want a winless season on their resume. Thirty-seven year old Jets running back Frank Gore admitted the 2020 season could be his last, and said to the press, "I can't go out like that." Winning matters to the players and coaches, whether analytics or the fans care or not.

It's Not Worth It

There is a fine line between rebuilding and tanking, and teams would be wiser to avert crossing that line. Tanking is toxic to the competitive fabric of the NFL, and carries heavy baggage to actually carry out effectively. Reconstructing a roster unlikely to contend is not the same as punting the season. Of course, there is a moral dilemma to deliberately fielding uncompetitive rosters and setting out to throw an entire year worth of games. It disrespects season ticket holders who spend hundreds and thousands per year to cheer on their favorite team only to watch a disgraced franchise completely uninterested in competing. The very nature of tanking is designed to position players and coaches to fail, and humiliate themselves along the way. The entire system takes advantage of the NFL's draft system, which gifts the least winningest team the first pick. 

Tanking is becoming more commonplace for a reason, because of the upside. The upside being potentially landing a generational star to champion turning a mediocre franchise into a winner. But banking on a 21 year old kid with a rocket arm or a gratifying charisma is a gamble, and a gamble that many teams have lost in recent memory. 

There's only one metric to evaluate a successful tank, and that's hitting on the top draft picks and landing said transcending talent. Tanking for the number one draft pick seldom works at all to actually landing the number one pick in thee draft, and the number one prospect is hardly a guarantee to take the league by storm. Superstars are so scarce in the NFL, and there is no such thing as a "sure thing" in the college ranks. There never will be.

Follow Sam DeCoste on Twitter @thesamdecoste