Courtesy of Jamie Sabau/Getty Images |
Written by Sam DeCoste
December is upon us, and the race for the NFL playoffs is heating up big time. Thanksgiving weekend saw the longest week of games in NFL history, beginning with the early kickoff in Detroit and extending all the way to Wednesday evening in Pittsburgh. Despite a flurry of positive COVID-19 cases across the NFL, all 16 games were played in Week 12, and Week 13 is on track to be played as scheduled as well. Frankly, the NFL is holding on for dear life to see the season through, but the season marches forward with every intention to see itself out.
Week 12 saw my best record in five weeks of November football, posting an 11-5 record. That's playoff caliber right there. That would be enough to host a playoff game. Last week, my defeats were rather, decisive. The Cowboys, Raiders, and Colts were all blown out, while the Cardinals and Rams also let me and my Week 12 Predix down with disappointing showings. But 11-5 is a step in the right direction, and sets the tone for Predix after Thanksgiving. December football matters, and I have my sights set on my greatest ever finish to a Predix season. Week 13 should be fireworks, so let's get right into the football!
Here are my records from this season:
Week 12 record: 11-5
Regular season record: 111-65-1
Lock of the Week record: 8-4
Browns @ Titans |
While Henry may be the best running back in football, Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt combine to make the NFL's best running back duo. Chubb plays a similar style to Henry, that being an angry runner difficult to bring down on the first wave of tacklers. Hunt comes in as a bruiser himself, but is explosive in the passing attack as well. The Browns offense runs through this pair, and Baker Mayfield will see little action early on as he looks to involve Chubb and Hunt from the kickoff. The Browns should move the chains with ease as long as the game is within striking distance and the coaching staff does not veer away from the ground game. The receiving core appears to be stretched thin with Jarvis Landry the only game-changing threat on the outside, so the Browns ought to run the ball 30 times to keep themselves in this.
The running backs will be the stars of the show in Nissan Stadium on Sunday. Even though the Browns can run the ball with Chubb and Hunt, Derrick Henry is the best there is, and the Titans are built to dominate in December more so than the Browns. It will be close, but the Titans will prevail.
Prediction: Browns 16, Titans 24
Saints @ Falcons |
Nobody saw the Falcons rout of the playoff-hopeful Raiders coming, at least not by a scoreline of 43-6. The defense sacked Derek Carr 5 times, forced 5 turnovers, and allowed just 243 yards. After one of the most lopsided performances of the season, Atlanta will look to carry over their momentum and knock off their divisional rivals. Stealing possessions from the Saints will go a long way in disrupting their rhythm, and capitalizing on short fields. The Saints may be the most balanced team in the NFL, and it starts with the play of their defense. They have given up just one touchdown in their last 4 games, and are giving up an average of 7 points per game in that span. If Todd Gurley returns, the Falcons will be counting on him to carve the Saints brilliant rushing defense, but the Saints give up just 76 yards on the ground per game. If Julio Jones returns, they may be able to disrupt New Orleans' secondary. Maybe.
If Taysom Hill plays like he did two weeks ago, the Saints will cruise to a win. If he turns the ball over one too many times, it could bite the Saints in the butt. He may throw an interception or two, but the Saints defense will bail him out.
Prediction: Saints 27, Falcons 19
Colts @ Texans |
During the week, Will Fuller and Bradley Roby received news that they will be suspended for the rest of the season after breaching the league's substance abuse policy. Just as Fuller was playing the football of his life and staying on the field, his season ends. Deshaun Watson will be without his number one wideout for the remainder of 2020, which means Brandin Cooks and Keke Coutee will see a trending volume of targets. David Johnson has a chance to be activated this week, but if he cannot suit up, Duke Johnson will be the number one back once again. That being said, the Houston ground attack could fizzle out very quickly if the Texans fall into a quick deficit. Against the Colts formidable defense, Watson could running for his life all afternoon.
The Colts are mentally sound, and they will be ready to take down the Texans on the road this week.
Prediction: Colts 24, Texans 13
Lions @ Bears |
Everything is falling apart for the Chicago Bears. Winless in their last 5, a middling offense, and mediocrity under center. They are coming off a humiliating defeat to the Packers in primetime which saw Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay offense light them up. Despite their horrid losing streak, they are still in the NFC playoff equation, and a win against the Lions evens their record at 6-6. The Bears prevailed in this contest in Week 1, in which Mitch Trubisky played his best game of the season. The Lions defense ranks 29th overall and 28th against the run, which opens the door for the Bears offense to finally assert themselves. Allen Robinson will be the best receiver on the field, and Trubisky needs to target him early and often. Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet are also young underrated weapons on the Bears offense that will have to step up for their quarterback, who will be desperate to show out on Sunday and boost his own confidence, and the mojo of the offensive unit.
The Lions are accustomed to losing on Thanksgiving, but Deshaun Watson carved them up like a turkey dinner. Their 41-25 loss to the Texans saw the end of Matt Patricia's reign as head coach, and the appointment of Darrell Bevell as interim head coach. At this point, Bevell is hoping to simplify the defensive scheme and settle everyone's nerves in the locker room following a turbulent two and a half years under Patricia. Detroit's defense ranks near bottom in the league in every category, but their matchup with the 31st ranked offense in the league is favorable as well. If the Lions can snatch a turnover or two, and Matt Stafford is on target, the Lions are poised to bounce back. A fast start would be great, but they blew a double digit lead against the Bears in Week 1 which set the tone for their 2020 season right off the bat.
As tumultuous a tailspin the Bears are enduring, the Lions no longer have a head coach. The Bears are desperate to win, while the Lions know their season is over and may pack it in by this point. This is a must-win for the Bears, and I think they will take care of business and win their sixth straight against the Lions.
Prediction: Lions 17, Bears 20
Bengals @ Dolphins |
Brandon Allen is slated to start for the Bengals once again, but the 28 year old was less than exciting against the Giants a week ago. The veteran passed for just 136 yards, and the offense tallied just 155 yards. Total. That was it. Bengals fans will hope another week in practice and reps with his receivers will see steady improvement from Allen, but a matchup against the Dolphins defenses bodes horrifically for him. The Dolphins defense has forced at least one turnover for 17 straight games, and they have taken the ball away from their opponents 19 times this season. If the Bengals miraculously avoid turning the ball over and move the chains consistently, they have a chance. Giovani Bernard will see a high volume of carries right away, and the likes of Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd will be matching up with a talented Dolphins secondary.
Truth be told, it doesn't matter who starts at quarterback for the Miami Dolphins. They are both better than their counterpart in Cincinnati, and they are fantastically coached by Brian Flores. It could be uglier than others think, but the Dolphins move to 8-4.
Prediction: Bengals 13, Dolphins 20
Jaguars @ Vikings |
Mike Glennon will start for the Jaguars for the second straight game following an admirable performance against the Browns. The veteran was efficient, did not turn the ball over, and moved the ball all afternoon against the Browns defense. James Robinson continues to assert himself as one of the best running backs in the league, and is on the verge of breaking the undrafted rookie scrimmage yards record, and he will do it with just 159 more rushing yards. Robinson will be Minnesota's top priority on defense, but that may sum up Jacksonville's offensive explosiveness. The Vikings defense presents a great matchup, but Mike Zimmer's unit will look to slow down Robinson and pressure Glennon into confusing reads and turning the ball over. If the Vikings break out to a considerable lead early on, Glennon could be in for a miserable afternoon.
The Jaguars have lost 10 straight, while the Vikings have their sights set on a return to the postseason. Kirk Cousins will be on the money, and the Vikings will steamroll the Jaguars to an easy win.
Prediction: Jaguars 17, Vikings 38
Raiders @ Jets |
The Raiders were schooled in all three phases of football in Atlanta, in jaw-dropping fashion. Now they face the Jets, a game the playoff-hopeful Raiders lost in similar fashion last year. They cannot afford to do that again, especially against the only 0-11 team in football. Josh Jacobs is banged up with an ankle injury and he is out this week. The Vegas running game was nonexistent against the Falcons, which largely attributes why the offense fell face first. The offense is built to run the football and thrive on play-action on the deep pass. Against the Jets defense, Darren Waller and Nelson Agholor are poised for breakout games. Derek Carr will protect the football, and will play mistake-free football. The Jets present the perfect opportunity to bounce back from a complete meltdown.
Time is running out for the 2020 New York Jets to win a game. They slowed the Dolphins down but still lost 20-3. Sam Darnold cannot overcome Adam Gase's horrid play calling. Turnovers, failed third and fourth down conversions, red zone struggles, and running Frank Gore 18 times per game have unraveled the Jets offense. Darnold is capable of spreading the ball out, and he can find the likes of Breshad Perriman, Denzel Mims, and Jamison Crowder with adequate play calling. The Falcons dispatched the Raiders a week ago without Todd Gurley or Julio Jones. If the run game with Gore is working, then the Jets would be smart to build on what's working. If not, it's time to let Darnold go to work. Darnold is playing for his job at this point, and potentially his trade value.
As long as Derek Carr protects the ball and the Raiders offense avoids total implosion back-to-back weeks, this game will go just as everyone expects. Raiders win.
Prediction: Raiders 27, Jets 9
Rams @ Cardinals |
The Cardinals have lost three of their last four, and their NFC West title hopes are dwindling quickly. Kyler Murray is banged up with a shoulder injury, and the offense is fizzling out after an up and down November. They have to beat the Rams if they have any chance of winning the division. The Cardinals have to rediscover who they are, which is a dynamic rushing attack compiled with an opportunistic, physical, hard-hitting defense. Murray can still make plays with his arm despite the struggles he has had the last few games, and he can extend plays with his legs and exploit the Rams defense in multiple ways. Jalen Ramsey will look to shut down DeAndre Hopkins, but the All-Pro receiver had Ramsey's number back when the two played in the AFC South for 3 years, and he should in the NFC West as well. The Cardinals must replicate what the 49ers did to the Rams a week ago by extending drives on third down and chewing the clock down. Chase Edmonds and Kenyan Drake should be the focal point of Arizona's game plan while Murray throws it up to Hopkins early and often, even if Ramsey is all over him.
To put it bluntly, the Rams were punched in the mouth a week ago. The Rams may have lost on a walk-off field goal, but they were thoroughly outplayed and out-coached by the banged up 49ers. On offense, Jared Goff must protect the football. The Cardinals may not be the most talented defense, but they line up to punch their opponent in the mouth. Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods are smooth route runners who will look to bail out Goff and his mistakes from the past few weeks, but the Rams need to hold the Cardinals defense accountable and spread the ball out. Darrell Henderson is a multi-dimensional threat from the backfeld, and the two-headed monster at tight end of Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett could find themselves loose in the secondary and make the Cardinals defense pay. The weak link in the Rams offense is Goff, and a costly interception or two could bite the Rams in the butt if they let Kyler Murray walk all over them.
With so much on the line, this one should be a barnburner. While both teams have proven to be wildly inconsistent in 2020, the Cardinals are built to disrupt the Rams' rhythm and buck their losing streak. These teams will meet again in Week 17, but the Cardinals will win round one.
Prediction: Rams 21, Cardinals 24
Giants @ Seahawks |
The Seahawks have put back-to-back solid performances on defense with wins over the Cardinals and Eagles. In their previous two games, the defense has allowed an average of 19 points and 282 yards. That'll do, especially down the stretch. Russell Wilson has cooled off in the process, but he will deliver when he needs to. While the Giants defense ranks tenth overall in yards allowed, Wilson and the Seahawks will not be afraid. D.K. Metcalf is becoming unguardable, and is firmly establishing himself as the NFL's most formidable deep threat. Tyler Lockett can make plays on the other sideline as well, and the Seahawks role players on offense have stepped up all season long. Cris Carson's return from injury goes a long way as well, and gives the Seahawks some bite on the ground.
The first-place New York Giants have a daunting December to clear in order to win their first division title in 10 years. If Daniel Jones is not ready to suit up after sustaining a hamstring injury against the Bengals, Colt McCoy will be taking snaps under center. The veteran signal caller stepped in and saw the Giants win out in Cincinnati, and is more than serviceable until Jones returns. Wayne Gallman carried the ball for season-highs in carries and yards, and has scored 6 touchdowns in his last 5 games. If the Giants can pound the rock and use Gallman to move the chains, they can muster capable offense in Seattle. But whoever suits up at quarterback will need to keep up with Russell Wilson and whatever he does on the other side of the ball. Neither Jones nor McCoy can do that.
Seattle's bottom-ranked defense will keep the Giants in the contest. But the Giants do not have the offensive firepower to stack up over four quarters. The Seahawks will move to 9-3.
Prediction: Giants 16, Seahawks 27
Eagles @ Packers |
The NFC East is within striking distance for the Eagles, but the schedule is daunting. After their trip to Wisconsin, the Eagles face the Saints, Cardinals, Cowboys, and Football Team. They match up horrifically with the Packers who just laid the hammer down on the Bears. Not to mention against the league's bottom-ranked defense a week ago, the Eagles gained just 250 yards of offense, and Carson Wentz cashed in another letdown performance. The Packers are bound to score in bunches, and the Eagles must find a way to keep up. Wentz has to settle down and just to try to throw to the open man. It may sound demeaning, but Wentz leads the NFL in interceptions, and the Eagles rank third in the NFL in giveaways this season. The only way the Eagles can upset the Packers as they did a season ago is to flip the script on their opponents. Avoid turnovers at all costs, and steal a possession or two from Aaron Rodgers. It will take a miraculous effort to change Philly's fortunes with five games to go.
Both teams may be in playoff contention, but the gap in quality between the rosters is so substantially wide. The Packers are far more talented, far better coached, and far more careful with the football. This one will be lopsided throughout.
Prediction: Eagles 13, Packers 31
Patriots @ Chargers |
Arguably, the 2020 Chargers are the best 3-8 team in the history of football. The talent is there on both sides of the ball, Anthony Lynn is a top coach, and Justin Herbert is on pace to have the greatest season for a rookie quarterback in NFL history. They were thoroughly outplayed a week ago in Buffalo, and Herbert was out of sync all afternoon. The play calling and clock management in the fourth quarter was ugly as well. The Chargers must keep Herbert upright against the Patriots, after he was battered in Buffalo. The Patriots defense may rank middle of the pack in yards allowed per game, but they are fundamentally sound in situational football, including two minute, and red zone. The Chargers ought to lean on Austin Ekeler, utilize Keenan Allen in third down situations, and let Mike Williams climb the ladder on goal-line fades.
The Patriots may the mentally toughest team in football, and the Chargers the weakest and softest. Bill Belichick will have one too many tricks up his sleeve for the rookie Herbert, and the Pats will shock the world once again. It will be close.
Prediction: Patriots 20, Chargers 17
Broncos @ Chiefs |
Say what you will about Denver's quarterback situation a week ago, but it is what it is. They were soundly defeated by the Saints last week, but Drew Lock is slated to return this week. Even though Lock is the Broncos starting quarterback, he is careless with the football and has thrown 11 interceptions this season. Lock and the Broncos offense turned the ball over four times against the Chiefs in their Week 7 meeting, and that could become the downfall for them once again. Melvin Gordon and Philip Lindsay are the engines of the Denver offense, but they have habitually been phased out of every Denver defeat this season after the Broncos fell into a large deficit. If the Chiefs jump out to an early lead, the ground game could be completely phased out and Lock will be thrust into 40 dropbacks where he will inevitably turn the ball over multiple times as he has all season long.
The gap between the Chiefs and Broncos has never been this disparate. The Super Bowl champs will demolish their divisional foes in primetime. This is my Lock of the Week.
Prediction: Broncos 13, Chiefs 34
Football Team @ Steelers |
By the time the game kicks off, the Football Team will have rested for 11 days, while the Steelers will be coming off just 5 days. Washington will be well-rested and recharged following a dominant win over the Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving. Rookie running back Antonio Gibson exploded for 115 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns, and he will be Washington's engine of the offense going into Pittsburgh. The Steelers defense is as formidable as they come, but Washington will hope the duo of Gibson and J.D. McKissic will slow them down. Alex Smith's honeymoon return from a devastating injury is over, and he needs to improve to take care of business against the Steelers secondary. Washington must control the game from the outset and avoid turnovers to stand a chance against football's lone perfect team.
The Pittsburgh Steelers may be 11-0, but they have played better than they did on Wednesday against the Ravens. Against Baltimore's practice squad, the Steelers scraped just a 5 point win. The team was out of rhythm on offense, and uncharacteristic errors on defense allowed the Ravens spearheaded by Trace McSorley nearly come back and win. Mike Tomlin will not tolerate mistakes from his team this week. The Steelers defense which leads the NFL in sacks and takeaways will pressure Alex Smith all night and should set up Ben Roethlisberger in opportunistic field positions. On offense, the Steelers offense is matching up against a well-coached secondary which quietly ranks right below Pittsburgh as the NFL's top passing defense. Roethlisberger will look to spread the ball out to Chase Claypool, James Washington, and Juju Smith Schuster, but Ron Rivera's defense will not be scared of the Steelers receiving core.
With five games to go, the Steelers have their sights set on an undefeated season. Steelers fans may write off the Football Team as an easy win, but they are far from a pushover. The Steelers will win, but they will have to earn it.
Prediction: Football Team 16, Steelers 23
Bills @ 49ers |
Few teams have faced such adversity in 2020 as the San Francisco 49ers of Glendale, Arizona. The 49ers must practice and play their next two home games outside of Santa Clara County, in StateFarm Stadium, the home of the Arizona Cardinals. They have battled the injury bug all season as well, but they defeated the Rams with a strong ground game and stellar defense. The return of Richard Sherman on defense changed everything, and he will match up with Stefon Diggs this Monday. The Bills offense can be slowed down if the Niners bring pressure to Josh Allen, and force him to throw the ball across his body and make mistakes trying to play "hero-ball." Nick Mullens must also keep the ball away from Buffalo's elite secondary, and ride and die with Raheem Mostert in the run game.
For the Bills, Monday night marks a return to the scene of the crime, where Kyler Murray slashed Buffalo hearts in half with a Hail Mary. With a win, the Bills would earn their first victory on Monday Night Football in 21 years. The odds stack up for the Bills to beat the Niners and move to 9-3.
Prediction: Bills 24, 49ers 16
Cowboys @ Ravens |
As if the NFL universe forgot, John Harbaugh is one great coach. With the odds stacked against them, without their starting quarterback and a myriad of starters on both sides of the ball, the Ravens competed all the way through against the undefeated Steelers. With Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, Mark Ingram, J.K. Dobbins, Matt Judon, and Calais Campbell among others looking to return, the Ravens will be reloaded and ready to take care of business against the Dallas Cowboys. The Ravens are built to run riot against the bottom-ranked Cowboys defense against the run. Just a week ago, Antonio Gibson ran for 115 yards and 3 scores on Thanksgiving against Dallas. Whether it's Jackson, Ingram, Dobbins, or Gus Edwards, the Ravens will have it all their own way on the ground, and the Cowboys will not be able to stop them.
Mike McCarthy's Dallas Cowboys melted down on Thanksgiving, giving up 21 fourth quarter points and losing to Washington 41-16. The team was exposed in clock management, red zone, third and fourth zone, and special teams. In order to rebound and keep their playoff hopes alive, Ezekiel Elliott has to carry the ball more than 10 times. The Ravens are going to run the ball all night long, and the Cowboys have to match their output on the ground to keep up. Tony Pollard is a great change of pace back as well, but the Cowboys offense is not built to let Andy Dalton drop back 40 times and dish the ball out against a Baltimore secondary which allows just 222 yards per game through the air. Dalton was great against the Vikings defense, but they are one of the league's worst units at the second level. Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, and CeeDee Lamb will give Dalton a chance, but the Ravens will tee off on him and look to slow down the offense from the core early in the game.
Baltimore's playoff push begins with five games left and sitting outside the playoff picture. From here out, the Ravens are in must-win mode. The Cowboys are as well, but they are unraveling by the seams. The Ravens snatch a crucial Tuesday night win.
Prediction: Cowboys 9, Ravens 24
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