2019 Week 13 Predix

Written by Sam DeCoste

Thanksgiving is finally upon is, which means winter is coming. This is the time of the season when the final stretch truly begins. We will begin to determine who are the contenders, and who are the pretenders. This week, the NFL has provided us with a feast of heavyweight showdowns to look forward to, starting on Thanksgiving Day. The Buffalo Bills make their first Thanksgiving Day appearance since 1994, and they face the Dallas Cowboys in a pivotal late season clash. The Patriots battle the Texans on Sunday Night Football while the Vikings visit the Seahawks on Monday night.

Over the past two weeks, I have been on fire. I have correctly predicted 11 games each of the past two weeks, and I am saving my record in what is looking like one of my least accurate Predix seasons. But we are now in final stretch, and I have an opportunity to finish strong in these final five weeks! So without any further delay, let's right into it! Happy Thanksgiving, and enjoy the Predix!

Here are my records over this season:
My record last week: 10-4
Regular season record: 110-65-1
Lock of the Week record: 8-4

NO MORE BYES! EVERY TEAM IS PLAYING THIS WEEK! 

CHI @ DET

This time last year, the Bears played on Thanksgiving, and they were gearing up for their playoff push over the second half of the season. Just a season later, the Bears are 5-6, and their playoff hopes are very bleak. Again, it comes down to the regression of Mitchell Trubisky in his third year. Trubisky just threw two picks against the Giants, in a win where the offense stalled once again, especially on the ground. David Montgomery and Tarik Cohen combined for just 19 carries for 47 yards, and Trubisky attempted 41 passes. The game formula needs to be different for the Bears offense this week to claim a crucial division win, and that focuses on the running game. Hand the ball to Montgomery and Cohen, and let them make plays in the open field.

Meanwhile, without Matthew Stafford, the Lions are 0-3. Backup quarterback Jeff Driskel has filled in adequately and the Lions offense has moved the ball, but they have been unable to capitalize when it matters, and consistently move the chains. Last week, Driskel's three turnovers cost the Lions, and it led to an upset loss to the Washington Redskins, the worst team in the NFC. But Bo Scarborough is playing well, rushing for 153 yards the previous two games. The young running back is getting touches in a Lions season which is quickly getting away from them, and he needs to become the focal point of the offense to beat the Bears.

This is a virtual must win game for the Bears, but the Lions will enjoy playing spoiler. The Lions are due for a win, as they are winless since Week 8. Trubisky will have turnovers in him, and it will cost the Bears, and essentially end their season for good.

Prediction: CHI 13, DET 19

BUF @ DAL

I'm sure all of us were shocked to see the Bills slated as the Cowboys opponent on Thanksgiving this year, but miraculously, this is the most compelling matchup in the NFL this Turkey Day. The 8-3 Buffalo Bills march into Dallas looking to make a statement over the 6-5 Dallas Cowboys who are in need of a momentous playoff push.

Vegas oddsmakers favor the Cowboys by a touchdown this week, which is frankly shocking, considering how the Cowboys have fared against winning teams this season. The Cowboys are 0-4 against teams with winning records this year, and they were favorites to win 3 of them. This will also be the second time in consecutive weeks that Dallas has faced a top 10 defense, and they did not live up to expectations the first time around. Against the Patriots, the Cowboys failed to score an offensive touchdown, mustered just 212 passing yards, and Amari Cooper was held without a catch through four quarters. That is not a performance to carry into a matchup with the Bills, who have one of the best secondaries in the NFL.

Over in Buffalo, the Bills allowed 134 total yards to the Broncos last week, including a mere 49 passing yards, which is an unbelievable feat to set in this modern era of football. Tre'Davious White in particular is having a career season, and is developing into a lockdown corner in today's NFL. On the other side of the ball, Josh Allen has only thrown 2 interceptions in his last 7 games, and has scored 16 touchdowns in that span. He will need to continue to protect the football this week and get his playmakers involved. Cole Beasley, the former Cowboy, will be a key player, because he can hurt the Cowboys on third down, keep drives moving, and pick up yards after the catch. Not to mention the AFC's leading receiver, John Brown, is on the other side, and Devin Singletary can move the chains as well.

This is a must win game for the Dallas Cowboys. Jason Garrett is on the hot seat more than ever, and he needs his team to step up versus a championship caliber defense. The Cowboys should get it done, because they are used to the spotlight of Thanksgiving, while the Bills are lacking a signature win to prove they have the quality to beat this Cowboys team. 

Prediction: BUF 16, DAL 27

NO @ ATL

The Saints loss to the Falcons three weeks ago is one of the strangest losses for any team all season. After winning 6 straight games with Teddy Bridgewater at the helm, the 1-7 Falcons marched into NOLA and shocked the Saints with a dominant 26-9 win. Alvin Kamara was virtually invisible on the ground, and the defense could not make a stop on third down. Those two facets of the game need to turn around for the Saints to win. Kamara needs to get touches on the ground and keep the Falcons offense off the field. 

For the Falcons offense, Devonta Freeman will make his return after a few weeks on the sidelines, while Julio Jones is questionable with an injury of his own. The offense will need to involve Devonta Freeman to a high degree for them to trouble the Saints defense just like they did back in Week 10. Freeman ran for just 38 yards on 10 carries against the Saints the first time, and the Falcons will need to build on that for them to stand a chance to earn the season sweep, especially with Julio Jones at less than full strength.

The Falcons will not sweep the Saints. Sean Payton will not let his team let this game get away from them for a second time this season. The Saints will avenge their loss from Week 10.

Prediction: NO 23, ATL 14

SF @ BAL

A legitimate Super Bowl preview in the making. Strength versus strength. A heavyweight showdown for the ages. This has all the makings to be one of the best games of the season. 

The team to score first will win this football game. The 49ers defense is number one in the league against the pass, and is capable of shutting down any offensive attack, especially if they put Lamar Jackson in a deficit. However, the Ravens are one of the most prolific offensive scoring team in the first quarter this season, and they have made a habit of burying their opponents early this season, including jumping out to a 21-0 lead over the Patriots. 

For the 49ers to win in Baltimore, they need to beat the Ravens at their own game. Pound the ball with Coleman, Mostert, and Breida. Throw the ball to George Kittle, who says ankles are overrated. The offense needs to score first, consistently sustain drives, and keep Lamar Jackson on the sidelines. Their defense also needs to do what they have done all season long and shut down the offense. If the Ravens are on a roll to begin the game like they have been all season, then the Ravens will have their own way all afternoon. But as we have seen prior this season when the Ravens have trailed, Lamar Jackson is not the same threat he is with a lead. Jackson could be forced to win the game through the air, which he has not proven he can do against top tier defenses.

Baltimore are favorites for a reason. They are on a 7 game win streak and are showing no signs of slowing down. Lamar Jackson and this rushing offense is proving to be an unstoppable force, and the 49ers will have no answers. The Ravens will move to 10-2.

Prediction: SF 17, BAL 27

TEN @ IND

This is Derrick Henry season. The former Heismann Trophy winner is taking over games this season, and has scored 4 touchdowns the previous two games and has racked up 347 yards on the ground in those games as well. The Titans can pound the ball into the postseason with the momentum Henry has, and he will be a complementary piece to Ryan Tannehill who has filled in at quarterback very nicely to make up for the mediocrity when Marcus Mariota was under center. The Titans will need to ride Henry this week, because the Titans have consistently struggled against the Colts, especially in Indianapolis.

The last time we saw the Colts in action was one of the most perplexing performances of the season. Jonathan Williams ran the ball 26 times for over 100 yards and a score, while Jacoby Brissett threw for just 129 yards, and T.Y. Hilton had just 18 receiving yards in his first game back from injury. Not to mention Eric Ebron has been knocked out with a season ending injury, and Marlon Mack is not at full health as well. The Colts offense is not at full strength, and do not have the dynamism or firepower to match the explosiveness of the Titans offense.

Marcus Mariota's Titans have consistently struggled against the Colts, but Ryan Tannehill's Titans are playing at a high level on offense, and are coming off a romping of the Jags. The Titans will take a huge step towards playoff contention this week with a win in Indy.

Prediction: TEN 20, IND 19

GB @ NYG

The Giants are winless in November, and have not won a game since September 29. Daniel Jones has played well in his rookie campaign, and he has a solid arsenal of offensive weapons. While Saquon Barkley is suffering a sophomore slump due to injuries and play calling, Golden Tate and Darius Slayton have been making plays in the passing game all year long. Their involvement will be key once again against the Packers, especially if the running game struggles like it has been.

Over in Green Bay, the Packers are coming off the mother of all thumpings. Aaron Rodgers was completely neutralized against the number one 49ers defense, throwing for just 104 yards. This game exposed the lackluster ability in the receiving core for the Packers. Devante Adams is the one talented receiver in the core which has a history of production with Rodgers, but the offense is screaming out for a playmaker who can create separation. But against the Giants secondary in New Jersey, Aaron Rodgers is going to roast them, and the Packers will stroll to another win.

This is my Lock of the Week.

Prediction: GB 26, NYG 17

CLE @ PIT

Just 17 days after Myles Garrett stunned the world by chucking a helmet at Mason Rudolph, the Browns and Steelers will have their rematch. For obvious reasons, this game is loaded with emotion and anticipation, mostly from the perspective of the Steelers. The Steelers are going to be ready to go and will want to vanquish the Browns after what happened the previous time.

Talking pure football, the Steelers will be turning to Devlin Hodges at quarterback instead of Mason Rudolph. Hodges came into the game to lead the Steelers to a come from behind win over the Bengals in relief for Rudolph, who has struggled mightily this season. Many forget that Rudolph tossed 4 interceptions against the Browns, and has been pretty terrible under center. Hodges is taking over, with a shorthanded offense, lacking James Conner, and Juju Smith Schuster, who have both been fighting injuries all season long. This offense matches up horribly against the Browns defense, even without Myles Garrett.

Meanwhile, the Browns finally exploded on offense last week against the Dolphins, and played like what most of us expected when looking at the roster on paper before the beginning of the season. The Browns racked 467 yards on offense, and picked up 30 first downs, and scored 41 points. Jarvis Landry scored two touchdowns, Odell Beckham also reached the end zone, and Nick Chubb ran for over 100 yards on the ground. The offense is finally in rhythm, after playing half asleep all season long. They shredded the Steelers defense in the first half of the previous meeting, and have the firepower to do it again in Pittsburgh this time around. 

If the Browns win this Sunday, they will sweep the Steelers for the first time since 1988. This is the year to finally do it again, because the Browns are way more talented across the board. The Browns will come out on top, and they will not miss Myles Garrett against this version of the Steelers offense.

Prediction: CLE 20, PIT 17

TB @ JAX

Ever since the return of Nick Foles, the Jaguars season has fell through completely. While Foles is playing well individually, the Jaguars were just blown out the Titans and gave up 42 points on defense. The defensive identity of the team has completely flipped upside down following the trade of Jalen Ramsey, and the season has derailed with two key losses the past two weeks. There are some bright spots from the season to take away into 2020, which include the rise of young receiver D.J. Chark, who has caught 56 balls this season for 834 yards and 8 touchdowns. Dare I say, Chark has played at an All Pro level at the receiver position. Foles will need to target him versus the Bucs defense which is one of the leakiest secondaries in the league this year.

Meanwhile, breaking news! Jameis Winston is still throwing interceptions. Winston threw two more picks last week against the Falcons despite the win, which makes it 20 on the season. Winston could potentially lead the league in touchdown passes and interceptions this season by the end of the year, which explains the inconsistency of the offense perfectly. The Bucs have a high octane offense with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and OJ Howard, but their 6 game winless streak comedown to the turnovers from Winston, which has been killing the Bucs all year long. As long as Bruce Arians continues to play Jameis Winston, I will continue to pick against the Bucs. Nick Foles is due for his breakout game as a Jaguar, and the Bucs are bound for back breaking turnovers to unravel the game plan for Tampa Bay. Jags will win the battle of Florida rivals.

Prediction: TB 24, JAX 26

PHI @ MIA

The Eagles have scored a combined 19 points in the past two weeks. Both games were at home, against the Pats and Seahawks. In two of their biggest games all season long, the Eagles offense has gone quiet, and has only scored one touchdown in those two games as well. Carson Wentz is beginning to show signs of regression, and cost the Eagles with two costly interceptions last week. But for as inconsistent as the Eagles have been all season long, they should bounce back against one of the worst defenses in the NFL this week. 

The Dolphins surrendered 41 points to the Browns a week ago, and Baker Mayfield had one of his best games of the year. The passing game produced 327 yards, and they surrendered 147 rushing yards. The Dolphins defense cannot make a stop, and the Eagles are coming into town desperately looking for rhythm. The Eagles can ride the momentum of Zach Ertz who caught 12 balls last week, and he may need to lead the way again, because the offense is crying out for playmakers, and for Carson Wentz to play like he did in 2017. The Eagles are massive favorites, and a loss in Miami would essentially put a wrap to their playoff hopes this year.

Prediction: PHI 23, MIA 17

WSH @ CAR

For the second straight season, the Panthers are suffering a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad November. The Panthers have lost 4 of their last 5, and Kyle Allen has been at the root of it. While Allen tossed 3 touchdown passes last week, he has thrown 9 interceptions, and his turnovers have become a weakness of his game. Although in New Orleans, the Panthers offense reached another gear, and could have prevailed over the Saints if not for unacceptable errors by Joey Slye at the kicker position. They are lucky to face the Redskins this week, who are one of the most dysfunctional teams in the NFL this season.

The Redskins are such a bad team that they will not be able to punish their opponent on their mistakes or their pressing weaknesses. The Panthers are the better team in this game, and are desperate for a win. And as the saying goes, pressure creates diamonds. 

Prediction: WSH 7, CAR 26

NYJ @ CIN

If the Jets did not start 1-7, they could have been a serious playoff contender this season. The Jets are in the middle of a three game win streak, and their schedule is very light to end the season. Sam Darnold has thrown for 8 touchdowns in the month of November, and his passer rating over that span is an average of 108.1. Darnold is playing at a high level, and is carving defenses. The Bengals rank dead last in total defense this season, and surrender an average of 417 yards per gametes season. The Jets should move the ball with ease and Sam Darnold should post another impressive stat line. 

The only reason I could argue that the Jets could plunder is that the Jets are prone to an extreme emotional letdown, as they historically struggle in games they are supposed to win. But the Bengals have no talent. Andy Dalton will be back at quarterback for the Bengals, and he will look to lead the Bengals to just one win before the end of the season, but it will not come this week. The Jets will win their fourth straight.

Prediction: NYJ 27, CIN 13

LAR @ ARZ

It appears that Sean McVay has been found out. The Rams offense is playing like Jeff Fisher's Rams back in the early 2010s, because they are remarkably average and predictable. They run a high abundance of screen plays, throws behind the line of scrimmage, and Jared Goff is playing well under his contract value. The focal point of the offense, Cooper Kupp, has just 9 catches in his last 3 games, and has not scored a touchdown since before the bye. The Rams offense has lost its downfield swagger, and they desperately need to hit the restart button against the Cards, otherwise their playoff hopes will be over before December even begins.

The Cardinals are catching the Rams at the perfect time. The Rams defense, for the All Pro star power on the roster, with Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey, surrendered nearly 500 yards and 45 points at home. They have been a pushover all season long, and the Cards offense has the explosiveness to capitalize and manage their own upset victory. The last time the Cards took the field, Kyler Murray led a late drive to take the lead over the 49ers, and they nearly came away with the upset win. Murray has the capability on the ground and through the air like Lamar Jackson to disrupt the Rams secondary, and potentially tear them to shreds. 

The Rams are extremely vulnerable and are quickly crumbling, but their first loss to the Cardinals since 2016 is difficult to imagine, and they are way more talented. This could easily become a remarkable Cardinals upset, but the Rams are still the favorites. 

Prediction: LAR 22, ARZ 20

OAK @ KC

The Chiefs can wrap up the AFC West title on Sunday with a win over the Raiders. The last time the high octane offense was in action, the Chiefs beat the Chargers 24-17, even though Patrick Mahomes threw for just 182 yards. The rushing game stalled, and Mahomes needed to extend plays himself with his legs, while Tyreek Hill exited with an injury early. With Hill back this week, and the Chiefs coming off a bye week, they are primed for an offensive explosion against the Raiders similar to their first matchup in Week 2. Mahomes threw for 443 yards and 4 touchdowns against the Raiders in September without Tyreek Hill in Oakland, which means the Chiefs could light up the scoreboard once again on Sunday.

Meanwhile, the Raiders are in the thick of a very heated Wild Card race. At 6-5, the Raiders are contenders for a playoff spot, but were just throttled by the Jets 34-3. Derek Carr threw for just 127 yards, and the defense let the Jets offense do whatever they wanted on the count of 403 total yards. The Raiders exploited an abundance of glaring weaknesses and general lack of playmakers on the roster against the Jets, and they need to be ready to go against the Chiefs, otherwise they are in for a consecutive thrashing in KC. But the Chiefs have allowed the third most rushing yards to running backs this season, which makes running back Josh Jacobs a candidate for a breakout game. His production or lack thereof could decide the result, or control the productivity of Mahomes if he is on the sidelines.

The Raiders are desperate, and they will do their best to play conservative and not beat themselves or make a critical mistake. But the Chiefs will play aggressive and fearless with Mahomes slinging it across the yard, and they will get it done against the Raiders.

Prediction: OAK 23, KC 30

LAC @ DEN

Philip Rivers is playing the worst football of his career. In his last two games, Rivers has thrown 7 interceptions, and has become a liability for the Chargers. The Chargers are in must win mode for the rest of the season, which will skyrocket Rivers' aggressiveness in his throws and decision making the rest of the season, which bodes well for any secondary he faces. Rivers is bound to toss more interceptions this week, because he will be desperate and chuck the ball around the yard, and he has been bound to make costly mistakes on a weekly basis. Rivers is the Jameis Winston of the AFC this season, which is company you do not want to be in. He needs to be more conservative, and the Chargers need to make Melvin Gordon the focal point of the offense this week, and steer clear of the Broncos top tier secondary.

On the other side, the Broncos were awful in all three phases of the game in Buffalo last week. The Broncos racked just 134 total yards, including 49 through the air, and just 4 passing yards in the second half. Brandon Allen had nowhere to run, nowhere to throw, and the Broncos fell completely flat. If they come out just like they did against the Bills, the Chargers could romp them simply on the basis of their talent gap. The Broncos need to run the ball with Philip Lindsay, and get back to the basics. This team is just two weeks removed from a 20-0 lead over the Vikings, and came agonizingly close to an upset win. The Broncos have it in them to produce offense under Brandon Allen, and are perfectly capable of upsetting the Chargers.

As long as Rivers is careful with the football, the Chargers will prevail. But the Chargers are on upset alert, and their season is on life support.

Prediction: LAC 24, DEN 21

NE @ HOU

The ravaging Patriots injury bug is making Brady look like his age. While Brady has not thrown for 300 yards in a game since Week 6, his receiving core has been absolutely decimated by injuries. Josh Gordon was waived weeks ago, while Mohamed Sanu and Philip Dorsett missed last week for injuries as well. The Patriots are relying on 33 year old Julian Edelman and the rookie, N'Keal Harry, who has only played in two regular season games. That being said, they have both stepped up, and Harry scored his first career touchdown in the NFL against the Cowboys last week on a pretty back shoulder fade in the end zone. The Patriots will need to implement James White and Sony Michel into the game plan to make up for the lack of playmaking in the receiving core, which has been an inconsistency for most of the season.

On Houston's side, the Texans are in the driver's seat to win the AFC South after handling the Indianapolis Colts on Thursday night. DeAndre Hopkins' two touchdown receptions led the way in their one-score victory, although the Texans will not be able to rely on miraculous deep balls again versus the Patriots, who are a top 3 passing defense. This week is the week to make Carlos Hyde the centerpiece of the offense. The Patriots are struggling to stop the run this season, as exploited by Baltimore. If the running game excels, it will provide pass protection for Watson, and will decrease the likelihood of turnovers, which the Patriots defenses loves to do. 

The Patriots have been there for the taking the past two weeks, and now is Houston's chance to capitalize on a prime opportunity to take down the Patriots. But they're not gonna do it. Not this time.

Prediction: NE 20, HOU 15

MIN @ SEA

Thanksgiving weekend is stacked with heavyweight showdowns, and the Monday night clash is no different. 

Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins is playing an extremely high level. Cousins has 8 touchdown passes in his last three games. He has not thrown an interception since Week 6, and has only thrown 3 all season. The offense is playing at a high level, and with Dalvin Cook in the backfield, Stefon Diggs and Adam Theilen on the outside, and the red zone reindeer, Kyle Rudolph, making plays in the red zone, the Vikings offense has been a mosh pit of matchup nightmares. But the Seahawks can shut it down if they can rattle Kirk Cousins, who has a history of struggling in primetime.

Despite the strengths of the Vikings offense, the defense has allowed 12 passing touchdowns on the road this season, and they are facing the frontrunner for MVP this season. Russel Wilson has 24 touchdown passes this season, and has led his team to a 9-2 start, their best start since 2013. While the Seahawks stagnated in Philly last week, and Wilson missed key throws in the red zone, they are back at home, where they are prolific. The Seahawks have the highest winning percentage ever on Monday Night Football with a record of 25-10. In Seattle, the Seahawks have lost just one home game in primetime in the Pete Carroll era. 

The Seahawks are an abominable force under the spotlight, whereas the Vikings have a history of shriveling when a national audience starts to pay attention. The Seahawks will prevail in this heavyweight showdown, and move to 10-2.

Prediction: MIN 24, SEA 28