2019 Week 10 Predix

Written by Sam DeCoste

The 2019 NFL season has already reached double digit weeks, which is absolutely unbelievable. Thanksgiving is just around the corner, which means we are starting to approach the witching hour of football season. Teams are starting to set their eyes on unlikely playoff berths and division titles, and they are looking for crucial wins over top tier opposition. 
Week 10 is headlined by the Vikings clash with the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football, and also features the Panthers visiting the Packers and the Seahawks taking on the 49ers. It should be a phenomenal week of football once again and we could be in for wild and entertaining contests.
Looking back at Week 9, I missed on half the games. I went 7-7 last week, but many games came right down to the wire and could easily have bolstered my record a little more. That being said, I need to be better, and hopefully I can bounce back this week. So without any further ado, let's get right into the Predix!

BYES: Broncos, Eagles, Jaguars, Patriots, Redskins, Texans

Here are my records over this season: 

My record last week: 7-7
Regular season record: 84-50-1
Lock of the Week record: 6-3

LAC @ OAK

After a half season of perennial underachieving, the Chargers cashed in a complete performance against the formerly 7-1 Green Bay Packers, neutralizing Aaron Rodgers in the process. The Packers totaled just 139 passing yards and were held to under 50 total offensive snaps. If the Chargers defense can keep that momentum going into the Black Hole on a short week, the Raiders will be in for a long night, because their offense is not nearly as prolific or explosive as the Packers. 

Over in Oakland, the Raiders have their second home game in five days after being on the road for the previous forty nine days of the season, and it comes against the most talented team in the division. Against a Chargers defense which shut down the MVP frontrurnner, Derek Carr and the offense does not match up well with a far inferior offense from the Raiders. While quarterback Derek Carr has completed passes with the highest accuracy in his career, completing 71% of his passes and has only thrown 4 interceptions this year, the Raiders lack an explosive playmaking ability to disrupt the Chargers on defense. Josh Jacobs is Oakland's sole offensive weapon, and the Chargers were able to stuff the run easily against Green Bay. If they can slow down Jacobs, the Raiders offense is fully accounted for.

This is definitely one of the most balanced Week 10 matchups on the slate, and it could easily go either way. But the Chargers are simply a better football team, and they look like they have found their rhythm. The Chargers will even their record at 5-5.

Prediction: LAC 23, OAK 21

KC @ TEN

Matt Moore has filled in excellently for the reigning MVP Pat Mahomes ever since he went down with an ankle injury in Denver. Since his injury, Moore has thrown 5 touchdown passes, including 3 to Tyreek Hill, and zero turnovers. Hill by himself has proved he is a lethal weapon in the Chiefs offense no matter who is throwing the ball. He is capable of scoring every time he touches the ball, and the Titans face the undesirable task of neutralizing him on Sunday. But the Titans defenses matches up well with the Chiefs on paper. Mike Vrabel's unit will not let Moore carve them up, they will bend but not break and force the Chiefs to kick field goals instead of touchdowns in the red zone, which could prove to be decisive in the witching hour. 

In Tennessee, ever since the transition to Ryan Tannehill at quarterback, the Titans offense has been remarkably more proficient. Tannehill has already thrown for over 300 yards in two of his three starts, and has 6 touchdown passes, while Mariota mustered just 7 scores in his first five and a half games this season. He has provided an uplift to the Titans offense this season, and has put the Titans back in playoff contention. Not to mention Derrick Henry is still in the backfield and he is an absolute bowling ball in space. The Chiefs defense is a pushover on the ground, which means Henry could be in for season highs in carries, yards, and even touchdowns. His production will determine the outcome of this week's contest.   

Matt Moore will most likely start this week once again for the Chiefs, but ultimately it doesn't really matter who is throwing passes for the Chiefs this weekend because both quarterbacks can get the job done. Moore may not be a game changer, but he is a game manager, and he can lead the Chiefs to another vital win over a pesky playoff contender. It may not be pretty, but the Chiefs should pull away with the win.

Prediction: KC 27, TEN 23

DET @ CHI

As reitirated in Philadelphia last Sunday, Mitchel Trubisky is not an adequate franchise quarterback. Trubisky completed under half of his passes last week for just 125 yards without a touchdown pass, and was completely inept moving the ball down the field. The longer the season progresses, the more Trubisky is humiliated in front of the rest of the league, and the lack of action from the Bears to address the position has been embarrassing to put it lightly. While David Montgomery has provided a spark for the Bears offense and is outplaying the explosive Tarik Cohen, this year, opposing defenses do not have much work to do to stop the Bears offense. 

On the other side of the ball, Matt Stafford and the Lions offense match up well with the Bears ferocious defense. Stafford has thrown 19 touchdown passes and is fourth among quarterbacks in passing yards, and has thrown at least 3 touchdown passes in 3 straight games. Although the concerning part of the Lions on offense is keeping Stafford upright with Khalil Mack wrecking the game on the defensive line. Not to mention the Bears secondary is still among the league's best, and they will force Stafford into errant throws. 

The Lions have the talent, and Matt Stafford is enjoying a prolific season to lead his team to an upset win, but the Bears are back in Soldier Field and it is still a formidable place to play. It will be close, and heartbreaking in traiditonal Lions fashion, but the Bears will triumph in the end.

Prediction: DET 20, CHI 24

BUF @ CLE

If I were to tell you the Bills would start 6-2 and the Browns would start 2-6 back in the summer, all of you would roll on the floor laughing at me. Well, that is precisely where we are now. 

Buffalo is undefeated away from New Era Field so far this season, with a record of 3-0. But the Browns will pose the stiffest road test the Bills have faced this season, and it comes down to the play of their defense. The Bills are allowing a mere 185 passing yards per game this season, but they are allowing 112 on the ground, which has been exploited as their weakness since their bye week. The Browns can capitalize by pounding the rock versus Buffalo with Nick Chubb, who has proved to be the focal point in a Cleveland offense studded with stars. If the Browns ride Chubb and use him to move the chains, they will dominate the line of scrimmage, and allow the Browns defense to tee off on Josh Allen and pressure him into another spell of back breaking turnovers.

It is not often that you see a 2-6 team favored to win over a 6-2 team, but that is the territory we are treading in this week. I have to agree with the oddsmakers and say that the Browns will snatch an unlikely victory over a well-coached Bills team, and that the Browns talent will finally shine through and earn them a win.

Prediction: BUF 13, CLE 24

ARZ @ TB

For the first time since October 6, Jameis Winston played four quarters of football without turning the ball over, which forced Russell Wilson and the Seahawks into an overtime period. While Winston played his best game of the season last week in Seattle, it may have Winston even more vulnerable for an emotional letdown this week, as he may be hungry to throw some more interceptions. The Cardinals defense may not force the most turnovers this season, but Jameis Winston consistently provides ample opportunities for defensive backs to make plays because he is an inconsistent passer. He can throw 5 touchdown passes against the Bucs, but he is just as capable of throwing 5 interceptions as he did against the Panthers four weeks ago. 

With Kyler Murray on the other side for the Cardinals, this game is bound to be a back and forth shootout. The Cardinals offense is coming off the best performance we have seen from an opposing offense facing the 49ers defense this season. Kenyan Drake ran for 110 yards and a score after just four days with the team, and Kyler Murray rallied the team to a near fourth quarter comeback with 2 touchdown passes. Murray's performance nearly led the Cardinals to a comeback win over the 49ers, which gives them insurmountable momentum going into Tampa. 

The trajectory of both these teams is spiraling into another lost season out of the playoffs, which should make this game an entertaining contest. I like the Bucs in this game because they are at home and they have more talent on offense to get the job done.

Prediction: ARZ 20, TB 26

NYG @ NYJ

For the first time since 2015, the Giants and Jets square off in the regular season. Bragging rights in the greater New York/New Jersey area are on the line on Sunday when Daniel Jones and Sam Darnold face off for the first time. Jones and Darnold will be compared for their entire careers due to the fact they both play in the same NFL city, and they will always be lined up with the other to see who is the better starter. This week, Jones is coming in far and away as the better passer, while Darnold is plummeting of late.

Post-mononucleosis Sam Darnold has thrown 9 interceptions in just 4 games, and is quickly turning out to be one of the least efficient quarterbacks in his draft class. The entire Jets franchise is devolving into a circus led by the ringmaster Adam Gase, who seemingly does not know what he is doing, Le'Veon Bell does not look like the guy he was in Pittsburgh, and the defense can't cover a sandwich. The Jets have been an absolute embarrassment in every measurable way in 2019, while their cross town rivals have much more to be excited about for the future.

Daniel Jones, while inconsistent so far as a rookie starter and has turned the ball over 10 total times this season, has passed the eye test. He is living up to the nickname "Danny Dimes" because he is throwing absolute dimes in the air and putting the ball exactly where it needs to be for his receivers. He is proving the doubters wrong and showing why the Giants drafted him at number 6. If you need a waiver wire quarterback this week in fantasy like I do, Danny Dimes is not a bad option. He is bound to carve the Jets to pieces.

There is no sugar coding it, the Giants are the best team in New Jersey. The gap in talent will be clear as day when this game is in the books, and the Giants will win comfortably.

Prediction: NYG 27, NYJ 13

ATL @ NO

Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan is questionable to play on Sunday, but to be frank, Dan Quinn should shut him down for the remainder of the season. Sitting at 1-7, the Falcons are virtually eliminated from playoff contention this season. That being said, Quinn will ride with Ryan the rest of 2019 as long as he is healthy, because his job as head coach of the Atlanta Falcons is in serious jeopardy. The Falcons have underachieved ever since their devastating Super Bowl LI loss, and it may be the end of an era if their woes continue. They will definitely spiral when they face the Saints in New Orleans, who have not lost a game since September 15.

With Drew Brees back in the starting lineup and recovering from a bye week, the Saints are in pole position to march for the number one seed for a second straight season and keep their tails on the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC. Running back Alvin Kamara will be back for the Saints against the Falcons, which will be a decisive matchup nightmare for the Falcons defense. The Falcons rank 24th in total defense and third in scoring, which means the Saints should not have trouble racking yards and points versus the woeful Falcons defense which has been the definition of a pushover this season.

To simplify, the Falcons are a dumpster fire, and the Saints are a well-oiled machine. The Saints will not be phased by the 1-7 Falcons. 

Prediction: ATL 10, NO 30

BAL @ CIN

Nobody wants to be the one team remaining without a win, and sadly, the Bengals have earned that undesirable label. After eight games, the Bengals are still seeking their first victory, and they have turned to fourth round draft pick, Ryan Finley, to lead the franchise through the remainder of 2019. Finley is an unproven commodity, and he is being thrown right into the sharks this week against an explosive Ravens defense. This game will also mark the debut of 7 time Pro Bowl wideout AJ Green, who has not played a snap this season due to a nagging ankle injury. It is surprising to see Green remaining on the Bengals roster after the trade deadline, and he will elevate the production of the Bengals offense, but with a undervalued rookie making his first career start, it will be to a limited extent.
If the Ravens can shut down Tom Brady and the Pats offense, Finley does not stand a chance.

On the other hand, the Ravens need to be careful of overlooking the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals obviously stink, and the Ravens outmatch them in very facet, but the Ravens are coming off the most impressive victory of the season. The Ravens are vulnerable to an epic emotional letdown if they are not at the top of their game. The only way the Ravens lose is if they overlook the Bengals, otherwise it will be a blowout victory for the road squad.

The rookie Finley is in for a long first day at the office, while Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is poised for another monster game on the ground. Jackson's numbers will look like they came straight out of Madden when this game is all said and done. The Ravens will not have much trouble escaping Cincinnati with their second straight win.

Prediction: BAL 37, CIN 9

MIA @ IND

Don't look now, but the Miami Dolphins are undefeated this month! Yes, against all odds, they defeated the New York Jets for their first victory of the year on Sunday, possibly catalyzing a late season push to evade the first overall pick after all. That being said, they face a far superior opponent in Indy this week when they play the Colts. 

It has now been determined that Jacoby Brissett evaded a potentially severe injury, as he has returned to practice this week after exiting the Steelers game. If Brian Hoyer started for the Colts, the fate of the Indianapolis Colts was on the line, because Hoyer is a turnover prone veteran who could lead to the downfall most of us expected when Andrew Luck retired. But with Brissett back, the Colts are huge favorites over the pitiful Dolphins, who need to win to keep the Texans off their backs in the AFC South.

Prediction: MIA 14, IND 23

CAR @ GB

With Cam Newton on IR, his season is over, and it will be Kyle Allen's ship to sail the rest of 2019. But Allen has proven to be dependable all season long, and led the Panthers to a four game winning streak from September to October. But since coming out of the bye and into the 49ers game, Kyle Allen has thrown 4 interceptions in the past two games. His ball security is regressing of late, and his bad luck may spiral when he travels to one of the most difficult venues to win in the league at Lambeau Field.

For the Packers, the team is coming away from their second loss of the season, an ugly one at that. Rodgers passed for just 161 yards, Aaron Jones was held to 30 rushing yards, and the Packers seemingly lost their mojo after Davante Adams returned from an injury riddled spell off the field. That being said, the Chargers were desperate for a win, and they executed their game plan flawlessly and neutralized Aaron Rodgers on the West Coast. Back home, in the comfort of Lambeau Field, the Packers are destined to bounce back and Aaron Rodgers will deliver an MVP caliber performance.

Prediction: CAR 16, GB 21

LAR @ PIT

The Rams return from their bye week with a cross country trip to Heinz Field, where they take on the suddenly resurgent Pittsburgh Steelers. While most of the league wrote the Steelers off at a hopeless 0-3, the Steelers have rattled off three wins out of four, and face the prospect of moving to a winning record if they can rattle Jared Goff and the potent offense of the Rams. Last time we saw the Rams in action, Goff threw for 372 yards and 2 scores, and Cooper Kupp shredded the Bengals defense for 7 catches, 220 yards, and a touchdown, and he is playing like an All Pro this season. Not to mention the Rams are finding creative ways to run the ball despite Todd Gurley's health, by balancing the carries with Darrell Henderson and Gurley, while racking the scoreboard with points.

For Pittsburgh, James Conner, the identity of the football team, will be out. He leads the Steelers in rushing yards with 380 and touchdowns with 6 on the ground and in the air. Without Conner, the Steelers turn to Trey Edmunds and Jaylen Samuels as a committee in the backfield, and will put more on the shoulders of Mason Rudolph to move the ball downfield. Juju Smith Schuster will be shadowed by Jalen Ramsey this week, which will be a familiar matchup from their playoff meeting two seasons ago. Smith Schuster needs to find space and make plays for Rudolph for the Steelers to keep up on offense, otherwise the Rams are going to humiliate the Steelers in their own building.

Don't be fooled, this game does not hold the same glamour it could have had with Ben Roethlisberger or James Conner healthy. The Steelers are far less talented, and while Mike Tomlin has done a brilliant job coaching the team up to a 4-4 record despite the injuries, the Rams are going to overwhelm Pittsburgh in all three phases.

Prediction: LAR 26, PIT 21

MIN @ DAL

For the second straight Sunday night, the football gods are giving us another blockbuster game between two big time teams, and we could be in for fireworks in Dallas this week.

Let's break it down. Kirk Cousins was the best quarterback of October, and earned Offensive Player of the Month honors for his 13 touchdown passes to just one pick and a quarterback rating of 125 over his last 5 games. Cousins is playing as well as he has his entire career, and managed to throw 3 touchdown passes against the Chiefs after Adam Thielen exited the game with an injury. Without Thielen, it makes the task of winning in Jerry's World even more difficult, and it is difficult to envision the Vikings stepping up in a game of such high magnitude. In the last two seasons combined, the Vikings are 2-8 versus teams with winning records, including a heartbreaking last second loss to the Chiefs just last Sunday. Mike Zimmer's Vikings are perennial underachievers under the spotlight, and this week should be no different.

In Dallas, it strangely took the spooky run of a black cat on the field in MetLife Stadium for them to wake up and dismantle the Giants, but they have moved past their disgraceful loss to the Jets with two straight wins, and could make it three in a row with a win over the Vikings. If they can replicate their explosive offensive performance against the Giants this week, they will be impossible to stop. Ezekiel Elliott carried the rock 23 times for 139 yards to churn the clock while Prescott carved the Giants secondary with 3 touchdown passes and an abundance of big pass plays in the second half. The Cowboys offense has been quietly prolific this season, and they are starting to churn out consistent performances.

The Cowboys may be going through growing pains still midway through the season, but they are more talented and proven in primetime than the Vikings are. That will be enough to move the Cowboys back to three games above .500, to 6-3.

This is my Lock of the Week.

Prediction: MIN 17, DAL 27

SEA @ SF

This week marks the first head to head matchup between quarterbacks Russell Wilson and Jimmy Garappolo, and it comes in primetime, in a heavyweight showdown between two of the best teams in the NFC.

Over in the Bay Area, the 49ers continue to have a phenomenal season, and they now stand alone as the only undefeated team in football. It all comes down to their number one ranked defense which has neutralized opposing quarterbacks all season long, which will now face its most daunting task: stop Russell Wilson. Wilson has played out of his mind all year, and is producing record numbers in his career. Averaging 278 passing yards per game, and 22 touchdown passes this year to just one pick and a passer rating of 118.2. Nobody can stop Russell Wilson, and his play will decide who wins this game. If the Niners can force Wilson off his spot and neutralize his playmaking ability, the Seahawks have no chance. But that is easier said than done for Niners defensive coordinator Robert Saleh's unit, which has faced mostly mediocre quarterbacks all season long.

It would take the mother of superhuman performances from Russell Wilson to cause a stir in Levi's Stadium, but the 49ers are too strong to fall to the Seattle Seahawks. The 49ers will keep the loss column empty this weekend and maintain their perfect record for another week.

Prediction: SEA 15, SF 22