2019 Week 4 Predix

Written by Sam DeCoste

Eight teams remain undefeated after three games, including surprise packages like the Bills, Lions, and 49ers. But after this week, we are guaranteed to see that tally drop with two matchups between unbeaten squads. Week 4 features an AFC East showdown between the 3-0 Pats and Bills, a first place clash between the Browns and Ravens, and an exciting matchup on Sunday Night Football between the Cowboys and Saints.

After a mediocre prediction accuracy rate in Week. 2, I bounced back in Week 3 and correctly predicted 10 out of 16 games. But I think I can do better. Let's see how I fare this week, with 15 games on the Week 4 slate. Without further ado, let's get right into it!

BYES: New York Jets, San Francisco 49ers

Here are my records over this season:

My record last week: 10-6
Regular season record: 31-16-1
Lock of the Week record: 3-0

PHI @ GB

What a great way to kick off Week 4 with a quarterback duel between Carson Wentz and Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau Field. 

For Philly to come away with the win, Wentz needs his weapons in the fold and healthy. Desean Jackson will be missing his second straight game, while Alshon Jeffrey will be suiting up. More importantly, Jim Schwartz's defense needs to get back to the basics. Philly's defense ranks 23rd in scoring defense, giving up 26 points per game, including 27 to the Lions at home. They can disrupt Aaron Rodgers if they collapse on the pocket from the outside, and force him to step inside. But if not, Rodgers can beat Philly in the pocket, out of the pocket, or even throw a Hail Mary. 

Head coach Doug Pederson will have his team believing that they can shut down Aaron Rodgers, after his slow start to the season. Rodgers has yet to throw for more than 235 passing yards in a game this season, so his play isn't taking the league by storm. He also does not have the strongest arsenal of weapons at the moment. Devante Adams, Marquez Valdez-Scantling, and Geronimo Allison are the most explosive playmakers on the perimeter, and the Eagles must shut them down to neutralize the passing game.

If Wentz and Rodgers are at the top of their game, we could be in for a barnburner on Thursday night. The game could go either way, and I'm on the fence about it, but I don't think the Eagles will be able to overcome their early season injuries on a short week, and the Packers will move to 4-0

Prediction: PHI 17, GB 24

NE @ BUF

For the first time since 2011, the Buffalo Bills are unbeaten after three games, and they face their stiffest test yet with the Patriots coming into town. By the same token, the Bills defense will pose the most problems Tom Brady has faced so far this season. Buffalo's defense has the potential to rattle Tom Brady for four quarters this week. In four meetings against Sean McDermott's defense, Tom Brady has thrown more interceptions (4) than touchdowns (3), including their last matchup when Brady threw for just 126 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 picks.

The difference between the old Bills and the new Bills is the offense. Their offense is also a top 10 unit, ranked at eighth in the league with 391 yards per game. Josh Allen has been efficient moving the chains with his new weapons, Cole Beasley and John Brown, who have a combined 35 receptions already. If Devin Singletary is healthy, the Bills can run the ball in two different ways as well, with the hard-nosed veteran in Frank Gore, along with a potential successor to Shady McCoy.

If the Bills can frustrate Brady, and Josh Allen can move the chains and capitalize in the red zone, Buffalo has a monumental opportunity to make a statement. However, it's the Patriots. Tom Brady is 16-2 in New Era Field, and I'm not sure the Bills have enough firepower to extend their winning streak any longer. 

Prediction: NE 26, BUF 17

KC @ DET

If the Lions did not surrender their 18 point lead in Arizona on opening day, the Lions would be 3-0. That being said, they are unbeaten, with a record of 2-0-1, and they will have the confidence to upset the Chiefs after beating the Eagles a week ago. The keys to beating Philly were touchdowns on defense and special teams, and Detroit will need more of the same to throw the Chiefs off their game. But that is easier said than done.

Pat Mahomes is averaging 398 passing yards per game and he already has 10 touchdown passes. The Chiefs offense as a whole averages 487 yards per game, including 503 yards against the vaunted Ravens defensive unit. Nobody can stop Kermit the Frog, I mean Patrick Mahomes. The Lions will try their hardest, but it won't be enough to contain the Chiefs red hot offense.

Prediction: KC 34, DET 24

CLE @ BAL

First place in the AFC North is on the line in Baltimore. If the Ravens win, they stand alone at 3-1 two games ahead of second place. If the Browns win, Cleveland is atop the division and right in the middle of the playoff conversation. But whoever wins the game will need their quarterback to play better than last week. Baker Mayfield threw for under 200 yards against the Rams, and had a QBR of 28. But the problem for Mayfield is he has no time to throw, and he has taken 11 sacks in the first 3 games. Against KC, Lamar Jackson did not step up to the occasion either. Missing 21 throws, throwing for 267 yards, and no touchdowns against the most potent offense in the league is not a winning formula. 

While last week was a letdown for both squads, Baltimore has its identity, and Cleveland is still figuring themselves out. The Browns will lose again, and 2019 will begin to look very similar to every other season in their eternal playoff drought.

Prediction: CLE 13, BAL 21

TEN @ ATL

Surprisingly, in two seasons at Mercedes Benz Stadium, the Falcons are 0-4 against AFC opponents. Is that going to have a direct impact on this game? Yes, because I believe in voodoo. 

Matt Ryan and the Falcons have played far below expectations entering the season. Ryan already has 6 picks, which leads the league. I've stood by Atlanta for three seasons, but I'm starting to give up on their playoff hopes from what they've shown us. The back breaking turnovers, the inability to capitalize in the red zone, and the losing, is putting the Falcons behind in the same division as the Teddy Bridgewater led Saints. Against a Titans defense ranked third against the pass this year, the Falcons could be in for a long day. 

In Tennessee, the season has gone south ever since their 30-point victory in Cleveland. Mariota has been sacked 17 times (!!!) in three games, which leads starting quarterbacks.  The Titans need to protect their injury prone QB, and hand the ball to Derrick Henry, who has been a monster out of the gate. 

I don't think anybody knows what we will get out of either Tennessee or Atlanta any given week, but I am putting the Falcons on upset alert this week. 

Prediction: TEN 23, ATL 20

WSH @ NYG

Just want to point out that I correctly predicted a one-point Giants victory over the Bucs, and that was a prideful moment for yours truly. But not as prideful a moment as when Daniel Jones scored the go-ahead touchdown to give the Giants their first win of the year after trailing by 18 points in the second half. While his stats from Sunday's win are very impressive for his first career start (336 yards, 4 TDs), Daniel Jones passed the eye test as well. He was mobile in the pocket, extended plays, distributed the ball to a variety of receivers, and threw some absolute dimes in the process.

In the nation's capital, it has been a miserable start to the season for the Redskins. From blowing a 17 point lead in Philly to being wiped out by the Bears on Monday night, the Redskins are suffering a horrible first quarter season, while the rookie Dwayne Haskins continues to observe from the sideline. It may be time to give him a go, considering how superb his counterpart in New York looked last week.

Daniel Jones may be better than we thought, and another stellar performance in Week 4 will do a fine job of silencing the haters.

Prediction: WSH 17, NYG 24

OAK @ IND

Remarkably enough, the Indianapolis Colts are not giving up on the season. Andrew Luck's shock retirement has not carried this franchise down, but it is elevating them on another level which we did not see them play like even last season. Marlon Mack is third in rushing with 299 yards, and Jacoby Brissett is playing very well under center, with 7 touchdowns to just 1 interception and a passer rating of 112.0. The offense has not missed a beat without Luck, which is highly encouraging in this heated AFC South race.

After racking up 24 points against Denver on opening weekend, the Raiders have combined to score just 24 points in the past two games, which means they are struggling to score. The offense is lacking an explosive, downfield element which they were expecting to get out of Antonio Brown, but that experiment never made it to fruition. Truth be told, the Raiders are lacking talent on the offensive side of the ball, and injuries on the defensive side have made winning football games mission impossible for the Raiders this season.

I underestimated the Colts this year, and I don't think I will be again any time soon. Jacoby Brissett is primed for another standout performance, and the Colts will walk away with their  third straight victory. This is my Lock of the Week.

Prediction: OAK 10, IND 20

CAR @ HOU

After being thrown into the fire versus the Cardinals last week, Kyle Allen took advantage of his opportunity and threw 4 touchdown passes. He will start under center for the second straight week in relief of Cam Newton, facing a much stiffer test in the Houston Texans. 

Houston looked very impressive in their gritty victory over the Chargers, a game in which Watson threw for 351 yards, 3 touchdowns, and he distributed the ball to a variety of receivers. The only issue remains their running game, which produced just 39 yards in Week 3. If the Texans can get Carlos Hyde on a roll, and move the chains, it will add yet another explosive element to the offense, and make them an unstoppable force.

Arizona ranks 29th in scoring defense and 30th in total defense, which made for an easy day at the office for Kyle Allen. last time out. The Texans are a different animal, with JJ Watt lining up against him. I wouldn't put it past the Panthers to even their record this week, but I would also be shocked to see Kyle Allen prevail over a team led by Deshaun Watson. The home team gets the dub.

Prediction: CAR 16, HOU 27

LAC @ MIA

I forgot to mention the Los Angeles Chargers are also on a bye week, because they are traveling to Miami to face the Dolphins. It is not entirely professional to continuously take jabs at one team week after week, but what else am I supposed to say? This team has been outscored by 117 points in three games, and has scored just 16 points all season, with just one touchdown. The quarter season mark has yet to pass and the Dolphins season is already one to forget.

Let's focus on the bright side: the Chargers are a very good team. Word has it that Melvin Gordon will be returning from his holdout very soon, which will give the Chargers offense even more of a spark. The problem is the Chargers have lost their last two, and they are already two games behind Pat Mahomes and the Chiefs in the AFC West.

When you lose any given week, the best possible diagnosis is a matchup with the Dolphins. The Chargers will even their record at 2-2 and get ready for Denver in Week 5.

Prediction: LAC 29, MIA 9

TB @ LAR

Somehow, Tampa Bay snatched defeat the hands of victory when kicker Matt Gay missed a 34 yard field goal as time expired. Now at 1-2, the Bucs have to travel cross country to face the LA Rams. Brutal.

While the Rams are 3-0, the Rams offense has underachieved compared to last season. Goff has just 4 touchdown passes to 3 picks, while Todd Gurley averages just 67 rushing yards per game. This time last year, the. Rams scored a conference high 102 points, while they have scored a comparatively low 77 so far this season. That being said, the Rams have the firepower and the playmakers on offense to change a game on any snap. Tampa allows an average of 28 points per game in three games, which means the Rams could be in for a traditional offensive explosion we are used to seeing from Sean McVay's squad.

The Rams have lost just 8 games in the regular season since 2017, and the Bucs do not have the firepower to add to that tally. The Rams will move to 4-0 for the second straight year.

Prediction: TB 24, LAR 37

SEA @ ARZ

Both of these NFC West teams were upset at home last week to squads starting backup quarterbacks. It was a remarkably humiliating Sunday in Seattle and Arizona, but now is the chance to bounce back. 

The reason the Cardinals have yet to win a game this year is the defense, which is 30th in total defense and 25th in passing. Russell Wilson will be licking his lips watching the Cards defense on film this week, after throwing for over 400 yards against New Orleans. His counterpart, rookie Kyler Murray, suffered his worst outing in the pros with just 173 passing yards and 2 interceptions versus Carolina in Week 3. In his first career showdown versus Russell Wilson, he will need to protect the rock and essentially match Wilson's production and add some unpredictability to the offense to catch the Hawks off guard.

The longer the season progresses, the more frustrated the Cardinals will be without winning a game. To win this week would be a tall task, and I don't think Kyler Murray has it in him to outlast Russell Wilson and Seattle.

Prediction: SEA 22, ARZ 17

MIN @ CHI

No quarterback matchup has me more excited this week than Kirk Cousins versus Mitchell Trubisky. Cousins averaging 167 passing yards per game, and Trubisky averaging 193. Both have three touchdown passes and two picks. Above all, both have been the underlying liability for their football teams to this point in the season. It is difficult to forecast where the Vikings and Bears will be at the end of the season, because while both of their defenses can dominate, their offenses stagnate from week to week. 

I wouldn't be surprised if the only scoring in this game came from safeties. All jokes aside, the Vikings have played very well at home so far, and their lone road game against Green Bay began in disaster. Back in Chicago, the energy of Soldier Field will fire up the Bears defense and suffocate Kirk Cousins like they did last season. Bears win.

Prediction: MIN 3, CHI 17

JAX @ DEN

I doubted Garnder Mindshew last week, and I paid the price. This week, he leads the Jags into Denver to take on the winless Broncos led by the elite Joe Flacco.

Jacksonville is living up to the Sacksonville nickname from two years ago, as they lead the league in sacks with 13, and absolutely harassed Marcus Mariota last Thursday night. And strangely enough, Denver is dead last in sacks this year with absolute zero. No sacks for a single Bronco, not even Bradley Chubb or Von Miller. That may be the most shocking fact by itself from the first three weeks so far. But rattling Minshew can neutralize the Jags offense, if either Chubb or Miller can rediscover their form from last year and get to the QB.

The Jags are entering the game with more momentum, but Denver has played well in spells up to this point in the season, and they would not deserve to reach the quarter season mark winless. The Broncos are due for a win, and I think the Jags fall into a trap this week.

Prediction: JAX 14, DEN 16

DAL @ NO

Teddy Bridgewater versus Dak Prescott just doesn't carry the same glamour as Drew Brees versus Dak Prescott. Unfortunately, we will not be seeing the Saints at their best against Dallas on Sunday night, in what would have otherwise been a game of the year contender.

The key to their upset victory in Seattle last week was giving the rock to Alvin Kamara. He had 25 touches for 161 total scrimmage yards along with two scores. He is New Orleans' most explosive playmaker, and he can produce no matter who is quarterbacking for the Saints, as long as they feed him the ball. In Dallas, it has been a strong start to the season on offense. The Cowboys average 481 yards of offense and 32 points per game, so they are blowing the floodgates open on their opponents. However, they have a tendency of starting slow. They have only scored 10 points in the first quarter this season. If they fall behind early in New Orleans, they will have to play catch up all night long, which is not how you set yourself up to win in the league's most hostile environment.

The Cowboys have done well to win their first three games, but the Saints are the highest level of competition they have faced to this point. While Teddy Bridgewater is not Drew Brees, Sean Payton will have him ready to go. If Bridgewater avoids crucial mistakes and gets the ball to his playmakers, the Saints will overwhelm the Cowboys in the Superdome.

Prediction: DAL 24, NO 28

CIN @ PIT

One of the most heated rivalries of the 2010s has devolved into a game of desperation between two squads without a win in 2019. It all starts with the shockingly woeful Pittsburgh Steelers, led by inexperienced quarterback, Mason Rudolph. Against San Fran last week, Rudolph left a lot to be desired, throwing for just 174 yards, 2 touchdowns, and an interception. James Conner hardly made a difference either, rushing for 43 yards on just 13 carries. Meanwhile, in Cincinnati, the Bengals have actually been explosive on offense. John Ross led the NFL in receiving yards after Week 2 and Andy Dalton is only behind Pat Mahomes for the most passing yards. Their offense is fun to watch and they can run up the scoreboard at any moment. 

While Bengals-Steelers lacks the glamour it once had, this game should be exciting and go right down to the wire again. Ultimately, I believe the Bengals offense has more firepower than Mason Rudolph's unit, and I fancy Cincinnati to pull off an unlikely upset. 

Prediction: CIN 20, PIT 19

Thank you for reading Franchise Quarterback! I hope you enjoyed the Predix and stay tuned for weekly Predix every Wednesday for breakdowns of all the upcoming games!