Skip to main content

2019 Week 1 Predix


Photo by Chris Donahue/Kansas City Chiefs

Written by Sam DeCoste

The wait is over! The NFL is back, baby! And even better, the Predix is back for another season!

For new readers, the Predix is the flagship Franchise Quarterback feature. Every Wednesday, I will bring you in-depth analysis and predictions for every game of the weekend, all 256 regular season games this year, as well as the playoff games and a highly comprehensive Super Bowl preview in February.

The NFL's centennial celebration begins with on Thursday night when the Packers and Bears renew their historic rivalry in the 2019 Kickoff Game, and it ends with the Monday night double header featuring the Texans against the Saints, and the Broncos facing the Raiders in Oakland's final home opener.

Without any further delay, it's time to dive in! Football has returned, and it's time to celebrate!

Here are my records from last season:

Regular season record: 167-87-2 (65.2% winning percentage)
Postseason record: 3-8
Regular and postseason record: 170-95-2 (63.6% winning percentage)
Lock of the Week record: 11-6


GB @ CHI

Last season, a banged up Aaron Rodgers led Green Bay to a thrilling come from behind victory, 24-23, in Lambeau on Opening Day, against a revitalized Bears defense. This year, Aaron Rodgers is coming to town with a new head coach, and a bolstered defense of their own, looking to make it back to the playoffs for the first time since 2016.

In his Hall of Fame career, many of Rodgers' signature plays and signature moments have come at the expense of the Chicago Bears. Bears fans know the history. Record of 16-5, average passer rating of 108.3, and 45 touchdown passes against Chicago over the years. He is Chicago's kryptonite, and can win the game all by himself like he has countless times before.

The Bears win the game if they can shut down the Packers receivers and put pressure on Aaron Rodgers...for four quarters. But if they take their foot off the gas again, their season will begin the same way as the last.

Prediction: GB 22, CHI 20



ATL @ MIN  

Unpopular opinion: this game is the must-watch game of the weekend. Two underrated quarterbacks, elite wide receivers, explosive playmakers on defense, and two of the most talented and well-balanced squads in the league facing off.

Matt Ryan and the Falcons should have a new look in 2019, under new offensive coordinator and former Bucs head coach, Dirk Koetter. The offense has been half asleep for two seasons under Steve Sarkisian, but if Koetter can get the ball in the hands of Atlanta's explosive playmakers, and execute on third down and in the red zone, the Falcons will be unstoppable.

On the other side, Kirk Cousins enters the second year of his three year, $84 million deal, with the weight of Minnesota on his shoulders. While last season was one of the best in his career statistically speaking, achieving career highs in touchdown passes and career low in interceptions as a starter, he could not step up when it mattered most. Minnesota's record against teams with winning records in 2018 was a whopping 1-6, averaging just 17 points per game in those contests. The Vikings need to rack up the scoreboard against the big boys, but that has been Cousins' most glaring shortcoming in his career, especially last season.

Going into the regular season, Atlanta is finer tuned and I like Matt Ryan in a head to head against Kirk Cousins every day of the week.

Prediction: ATL 30, MIN 21



KC @ JAX

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs come in looking for their first Super Bowl title in fifty seasons, and they will be firing on all cylinders in no time. The Chiefs have made a habit of getting off to a fast start.

Since 2015, the Chiefs average 35 points on opening day, and have rolled off to 5-0 starts each of the previous two seasons. They should light the scoreboard up yet again with Patrick Mahomes leading the charge, and weapons like Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Sammy Watkins, and the newly signed LeSean McCoy. The only thing that will stop Mahomes from dominating the NFL again this season is some stupid video game curse.

However, it would not be surprising to see Mahomes struggle at the outset against a ferocious Jags defense stacked with All Pro caliber players. Mahomes threw two picks against Jacksonville when they played in the 2018 regular season. But the Chiefs still dominated the game and won comfortably. Do you believe in deja vu?

Prediction: KC 34, JAX 21



LAR @ CAR

The hopes of the 2019 Carolina Panthers rest on the surgically repaired shoulders of Cam Newton, but he is banged up. The ankle injury he suffered against New England in the preseason does not appear to be major, but the Panthers passing game suffers when Newton is not healthy. Going into opening day against the reigning NFC champions is challenging enough, but pulling an upset will be an uphill battle with Cam playing hurt.

The only injury of note to consider for LA is Todd Gurley's knee. Word on the street is he hasn't been right since the playoffs, and his production dipped in their Super Bowl run last year. The offense runs through Todd Gurley, and the Rams will stagnate if he struggles.

Nonetheless, Sean McVay's Rams won their opening game each of the last two seasons, and scored 77 combined points. Not to mention McVay made it back home in time for curfew. The Rams start fast, and Goff plays very well early in the season.

The Panthers don't have the talent to beat the Rams with a healthy Cam Newton. With a banged up Cam Newton, the odds are not with Sweet Carolina.

Prediction: LAR 38, CAR 20




BUF @ NYJ

It's Year two for the new kids on the block in the AFC East, Sam Darnold and Josh Allen. Both franchises prioritized revitalizing their offenses so their signal callers have the weapons and pass protection to excel in their sophomore season. Buffalo added four new starters to their offensive line, an entourage of explosive running backs, and some studs in Cole Beasley and John Brown. In East Rutherford, the Jets acquired the best running back on the market in Le'Veon Bell. But most importantly, the Jets changed their uniforms, and they're freaking dope.

Both these teams believe they have a chance at knocking off the Pats in the division this year. While that's a stretch, both teams have a realistic chance at making the Wild Card, and these division contests will be decisive. It's one of the most balanced games of the weekend, and it should be exciting even if you're not a fan of the Bills or the Jets.

The Jets secondary is banged up going into the game, while the Bills offense flashed their potential in the preseason. I think the Bills march into Jersey and get off to a strong start.

Prediction: BUF 23, NYJ 20




TEN @ CLE 

The Browns got hot over hot girl summer, and it's time to see them together in action for the first time. We get to see Baker Mayfield, Nick Chubb, David Njoku, Jarvis Landry, and Odell Beckham in the same uniform. Imagine building a team on Madden and then seeing it come to fruition in real life, because this offense is straight out of a video game. Cleveland hopes that this year will finally be the year their seventeen season playoff drought ends, and everybody is rooting for them to do it.

Meanwhile, the party pooping Tennessee Titans march into Cleveland looking to make a run at the Andrew Luck-less AFC South. Mariota enters his fifth year as a pro, and apart from making some plays in a playoff game, has left a lot to be desired. That being said, the Titans offense is more stacked than it has ever been in Mariota's career, with the two headed backfield monster in Dion Lewis and Derrick Henry, along with Corey Davis, Adam Humphries, and a healthy Delanie Walker. Tennessee will be competitive once again, and they will be ready to play against the league's golden boys.

If the Browns overlook the Titans, there could be problems. But if they show up to play and Baker Mayfield plays like he finished 2018, Cleveland will start 1-0 for the first time since 2004.

Prediction: TEN 14, CLE 27




BAL @ MIA

The elite Joe Flacco is gone, and it's time for running back (don't @ me) Lamar Jackson to begin his first full season as the man in Baltimore. For him to take the next step as an NFL quarterback, he needs to consistently pose a threat in the air, otherwise Ravens games are going to turn out similarly to their embarrassing Wild Card loss to the Chargers. It's even more imperative for Jackson to step up with the turnover on defense. Terrell Suggs, CJ Mosley, Za'Darius Smith, and Eric Weddle, four linchpins on the Ravens defense for years.

Jackson is still a threat on the ground, and there will be games where he won't need to throw for 300 yards to win. This is one of them. The Dolphins in every way are the weakest team in the NFL, and their quarterback situation is one of the most unenviable. Ryan Fitzpatrick has produced magic in the past, but his supporting cast is so pathetic that the 2019 season is bound to be a disaster.

When Ryan Fitzpatrick is on the field, there's always a chance that something special will happen. But there's just as much potential for absolute chaos. I imagine against a top tier Ravens defense, there will be absolute chaos.

Prediction: BAL 33, MIA 10



WSH @ PHI

The law firm of Wentz and Foles no longer stands. Now, the business belongs to Wentz. For the first time since 2017, Carson Wentz does not have Nick Foles behind him in the QB depth chart, and it is on Wentz to deliver and reach the heights Foles has. The road back to the Super Bowl starts with an easy test against divisional foes Washington, led by their third Week 1 starting quarterback in as many seasons.

While the Eagles and Cowboys dominate the East, the Redskins have talent the NFC East can't ignore. Dwayne Haskins is a potentially promising young quarterback, running back Derrius Guice is back after an ACL tear last year, and the defense has some studs including Jonathan Allen, Ryan Kerrigan, Montez Sweat, and Josh Norman. If they can stay healthy, they could make a run for a Wild Card. That being said, the Eagles are way more talented, and they have too much firepower to be contained by the Redskins.

It's safe to say we would all be surprised if the Redskins pulled the upset this week, it's Philly's game to lose.

Prediction: WSH 13, PHI 29

IND @ LAC

Andrew Luck's sudden retirement completely blindsided the football contingent everywhere, and especially the Indianapolis Colts. A potential Super Bowl caliber season may have been turned upside down before a ball has been kicked. While his understudy, Jacoby Brissett is a competent quarterback, he is not a game changer. He won't be the man orchestrating 75 yard drives to win games in the fourth quarter. He's not Andrew Luck. 

Meanwhile, the San Diego, I mean, Los Angeles Chargers, aka the fourth most popular sports team in LA, have their QB in Philip Rivers. The offense is as strong as ever minus a missing Melvin Gordon, and the defense is still a top unit. There may not be a stronger roster in the AFC than the Chargers, and against a shell shocked Colts organization, there's no question who earns the dub. If only they could find some fans.

Prediction: IND 16, LAC 27


CIN @ SEA

Khalil Mack to Chicago last year, Jadaveon Clowney to Seattle on Saturday. The Seahawks acquisition of the former first overall pick has the potential of completely transforming Seattle's defense back into a dominant force, especially up front. With Russell Wilson and the offense already clicking, the Seahawks are definitely going to contend again, and challenge the Rams atop the NFC West.

Cincinnati is rolling out with an unproven head coach who never would have been hired if not for his link with Sean McVay in Zac Taylor. Taylor is Cincy's first new head coach in sixteen years, and it's on him to turn around the bottom feeders of the AFC North. Flying thousands of miles cross country to play Seattle is as unenviable a start as they could've asked for, considering Seattle is the hardest place to play in the NFL.

We don't know what the Bengals will be in 2019, but we know what the Seahawks will look like. It's gonna be one long flight back to Cincy after this one is all said and done.

Prediction: CIN 14, SEA 31




SF @ TB

It's put up or shut up time in San Francisco. Kyle Shanahan and Jimmy Garappolo enter their third season in the Bay Area and they are expected to win. But it won't be easy to start on the right foot against a team coached by Bruce Arians.

The Bucs are more talented than people give them credit for, and their offense is explosive across the board. Tampa Bay ranked third overall in yards per game and first in passing in 2018, despite the quarterback merry-go-round which lasted all season long. Imagine what they could do with Bruce Arians calling the shots.

Niners-Bucs may be the most balanced game of the weekend, and either team could win. I will lean towards the road team, because I think the Niners offense has more points in them.

Prediction: SF 24, TB 17 

DET @ ARZ

The Kyler Murray era begins in Arizona at home Matthew Stafford and the Detroit Lions. Murray is making his pro football debut this week, along with his head coach, Kliff Kingsbury. While the hire for Kingsbury, was mightily controversial, it could propel the Cards offense to another level.

Kyler Murray is a two dimensional threat, he can beat you with his arm and his legs. David Johnson is still one of the best backs in the game, and can take over a game in the right system. Larry Fitzgerald is still at the top of his game, and there are other young receivers in place like Christian Kirk and Andy Isabella.

We may not know what we're gonna get from Arizona, but we definitely know what we're getting from Detroit. Matt Stafford enters his eleventh season in the NFL still with Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay, Kerryon Johnson and CJ Anderson in the arsenal as well.

Stafford has been there, done that. Against a rookie quarterback making his first career start, the Lions are in a better position to win today. Arizona is a work in progress.

Prediction: DET 23, ARZ 17



NYG @ DAL

Cowboys fans, you can breathe. Ezekiel Elliott got his money, and he is coming back in time for the start of the regular season. The only problem is Dak Prescott and Amari Cooper are soon to be free agents as well, and Jerry Jones needs to pay them top end deals as well. Hopefully, the insufferable contract drama we had with Elliott won't repeat itself with Prescott or Cooper during the regular season.

Against the New York Football Giants, the Cowboys offense has enough playmaking ability to frustrate Italian mafias across Manhattan. While the Giants are a bad football team, but they consistently play the Cowboys tough and they can turn into low scoring slugfests. The Giants will definitely struggle to score points, because Eli Manning is their quarterback. That guy stinks. It's not 2011 anymore, John Mara. Start Daniel Jones.

Prediction: NYG 13, DAL 19



PIT @ NE

New England's quest for their seventh Super Bowl begins against a familiar foe in Big Ben and the Pittsburgh Steelers. But this time, Bill Belichick doesn't have to worry about the Killer Bees in Bell and Brown. It's all about shutting down James Conner and Juju Smith Schuster, two stars in their own right.

Of course, the game is all about Tom Brady. At 42 years old, Brady is still at the top of his game, and there is no reason to believe his play will take a 2015 Peyton Manning-esque dip quite yet. In this offense, with Julian Edelman, the versatile running back room, and the reinstated Josh Gordon, the Pats will be impossible to contain once again.

Since 2013, Pittsburgh's record versus New England is a woeful 1-5, with their only victory coming last season. Even the Dolphins have more wins against the Pats since then. The Steelers consistently compete and stack wins during the regular season, but there's a reason they haven't been to the Super Bowl in ten years. They just don't know how to beat the Pats.

Pittsburgh will have a good season, but the Belichick will neutralize Conner and Juju Smith Schuster to lead the Patriots to an easy victory.

Prediction: PIT 19, NE 28



HOU @ NO

New Orleans has been on the brink for two years now, and they think this could be their year to finally get over the hump for the first time in ten years. Their road back to a division title begins with a remarkably easier matchup against the Clowney-less Texans in the Superdome.

It should be a one-sided contest throughout because New Orleans is stronger across the board. Drew Brees is still at the top of his game going into his nineteenth season, Alvin Kamara is a real life cheat code, and Cameron Jordan is bound for a field day against a Houston offensive line which surrendered a league high 65 sacks last season. But most importantly, New Orleans will be behind their team in full throttle to see the Saints back on the field for the first time since the NFC Championship.

The Saints are the most dominant home team in the league and they will overpower Houston in every facet.

Prediction: HOU 17, NO 38



DEN @ OAK 

Here's a fun name for a fantasy football team: Xenith Shadow. That is the name of the helmet Antonio Brown has decided to wear for the 2019 season. Finally, the helmet saga has ended. Right?

I have Antonio Brown one of my fantasy teams, and I promise you he is in my starting lineup. This helmet nonsense has carried on for long enough, and it isn't a dealbreaker which will keep Brown off the field in sulking protest. The Raiders have been waiting to unleash their newest offensive weapon all summer long, and he will start against the Broncos.

Denver marches in led by the elite Joe Flacco, who was so elite he earned himself a trade for mid-round picks to a team still in quarterback transition. The Broncos roster has plenty of talent scattered across the board, including undrafted running back Philip Lindsay, the ageless Emmanuel Sanders, and Courtland Sutton, along with former Super Bowl MVP Von Miller, Bradley Chubb, Kareem Jackson, and Chris Harris Jr. on the defensive side. But when you stack the Broncos roster up with most of the league, compiled with the fact they are being led by a first time head coach at 61 years old, 2019 doesn't look promising for Denver.

In Oakland's final home opener, I think they prevail over their division rivals, and Antonio Brown will start his season off strong as well. 

This is my Lock of the Week.

Prediction: DEN 14, OAK 24


Thank you for reading Franchise Quarterback! I hope you enjoyed the Predix and stay tuned for weekly Predix every Wednesday for breakdowns of all the upcoming games!

Comments

Popular Posts

2018 NFL Postseason Power Rankings

2018 Divisional Round Predix

2018 NFL Draft - Sam and Ben Mock the First Round

Greatest Upsets in Super Bowl History

Super Bowl LIII Predix