2018 NFL Week 4 Predix

Written by Sam DeCoste

What a busy week on the Franchise Quarterback blog. After a Week 3 full of upsets and drama, the NFL landscape seemed to slowly beginning to define itself, until Buffalo and Detroit threw in some large monkey wrenches into the operation. Picking games doesn't get any easier from here, especially with a slate of some great Week 4 games. It kicks off with a blockbuster night in Los Angeles, when the Vikings and the Rams matchup, and wraps up in Denver where Patrick Mahomes looks to continue his incredible start to the season. So without any delay, let's get right into it!

Here are my season records: 

Lock of the Week record: 1-2

Last week's record: 9-7

Regular season record: 25-21-2

    MIN @ LAR

The only logical explanation for Minnesota's unpredictable implosion against Buffalo was they overlooked the Bills, and were looking towards this game. But after such a pathetic performance against the Bills, I cannot foresee a scenario where the Vikings have the Rams at their mercy. The Rams are at home under the lights, and they have looked unstoppable through three games. The Rams will remain unbeaten.

Prediction: MIN 16, LAR 38

 PHI @ TEN

It may have been ugly, but the Titans won their third straight over the Jaguars in a lackluster 9-6 win. Their opponents just edged the Colts at home last week, and Carson Wentz definitely flashed some rust. This game should be no different from Tennessee's win last week: both defenses will dominate the other team's less than one-hundred percent QB, and the Eagles will come out on top.

Prediction: PHI 17, TEN 13

    BUF @ GB

Did we write the Bills off too soon again? Perhaps not. But remember when the Bills were tanking last year? Then they beat the Falcons in Atlanta's gorgeous new stadium. Now the Packers are on deck, and this is definitely a mouse trap for them. Aaron Rodgers is playing on one good leg, Clay Matthews gets called for a killer roughing the passer foul every week, and the Packers haven't won since Week 1. This game will not turn out to be a blowout like every other Bills game so far. Buffalo will give Green Bay lots of trouble, especially if the Packers cannot contain Josh Allen.

Prediction: BUF 23, GB 21

 DET @ DAL

Detroit needed a win badly, and they got it against a vulnerable Patriots squad. This time, they're the enemy in Jerry's World, as the lackluster Cowboys look to get back to .500. In terms of matchups, the Lions offense is far more talented than Dak Prescott's men, who have been, frankly, unwatchable so far. Scoring 41 points in 3 games is not good enough. Dak Prescott needs to step up and play like his rookie self again. I think Dallas will win mostly because of their home field advantage, and Detroit has yet to show consistency on the road.

Prediction: DET 10, DAL 21

 TB @ CHI

Boy, this is an exciting matchup. The Bears are back at home to welcome Ryan Fitzpatrick's Buccaneers, who have been electrifying on offense (apart from that first half against the Steelers) while Chicago's defense led by Khalil Mack has been formidable in opponent's backfields. However, this is usually the point where Ryan Fitzpatrick starts to regress, when the expectations build in tough games. Not to mention the Bucs are playing on a short week. Chicago will triumph, and Khalil Mack will force another fumble.

Prediction: TB 17, CHI 23

P.S.: Never again will I pick Ryan Fitzpatrick to win a game that matters.

 CIN @ ATL

I guess Philadelphia is just Matt Ryan's kryptonite. After a pathetic Week 1 showing, especially in the red zone, the Falcons have been superb on offense, scoring 68 points in their previous two home games. But can their injury-riddled defense keep up? Maybe in this game. Joe Mixon is still out, and AJ Green got hurt last week as well. Not to mention the Bengals showed they cannot be counted on consistently week to week, and I am not going to pick them to win in the Mercedes Benz Stadium.

Prediction: CIN 24, ATL 34

 MIA @ NE

The midterms have come early this year for Miami. Their first big test of the year is a big one, as they march into New England looking to turn fortunes around in the AFC East for the first time in ten years. Their defense has been excellent, and Ryan Tannehill is playing efficient football. Did you know Ryan Tannehill is 11-1 in his last 12 starts? Yes. But it's hard to win in New England. And they are not happy with two straight blowout losses. The Patriots will bounce back for a big game. But if they don't, it may be time to panic. This is my Lock of the Week.

Prediction: MIA 20, NE 28

    NYJ @ JAX

Maybe the Jets aren't the same team as the one that annihilated Detroit in Week 1? And maybe the Jags can't be the team that dominated the Patriots Week 2 consistently? At least these defenses play hard and force lots of turnovers. There will be more of those turnovers in this game, as Sam Darnold and Blake Bortles tend to be reckless with the football. But a rookie quarterback is not going to outlast this Jags defense.

Prediction: NYJ 3, JAX 20

    HOU @ IND

I'm concerned about both quarterbacks under center. Deshaun Watson has not been the same player since returning from a torn ACL, and Andrew Luck is nowhere near the same player he was three years ago. His arm strength is gone. And Houston just can't seem to break their duck and win a game. I will pick Houston again this week, because I feel they are way too talented to start winless after a quarter of the season.

Prediction: HOU 23, IND 13

    SF @ LAC

The consensus feel about the 49ers is that their season ended when Jimmy Garappolo suffered a season-ending ACL tear. I agree. Their season is over. Their roster is not strong enough, nowhere near one like the 2017 Eagles, to march forward as a team. I don't see it, especially against a Chargers squad like this one. The Chargers are more talented in every single position on the field. This could get ugly. Not like a Titans-Jags ugly, but more like a Bills-Ravens ugly.

Prediction: SF 7, LAC 38

 SEA @ ARZ

We have a battle of the birds out west. Josh Rosen will make his first career start against a Seahawks team that has struggled to keep points off the board, while Russell Wilson marches into StateFarm Stadium, a building which he is 5-1-1 in. Wilson seems to own the Cardinals in Arizona, and I think the Seahawks have enough talent to outlast a team led by a rookie quarterback.

Prediction: SEA 24, ARZ 13

 NO @ NYG

What Saints team should we expect? The one that was outplayed by the Bucs and Browns in their own building, or the one that scored 43 points in Atlanta? I'm not so sure. I have a suspicion this game will be more lower scoring. New York will ride with Saquon Barkley and kick field goals while the Saints will give a heavy load for Kamara and Thomas once again. Given the production so far, I don't see how the Giants outlast the Saints.

Prediction: NO 23, NYG 10

 CLE @ OAK

Lately, I've been using the argument that a winning team from a Thursday night has an advantage because they have momentum to build off, and ten days rest. The previous two teams have fallen flat in these circumstances, so I will not give in again. The Browns apparently won the Super Bowl last Thursday, and now they have to build off of their win in Oakland, a team which is desperately trying to find ways to win. The Raiders are due for a win, and I think they will catch a Browns squad recovering from a few too many free Bud Lights. 

Prediction: CLE 17, OAK 24

 BAL @ PIT

Winning has a way of fixing all of your problems. The Steelers need to keep winning to neutralize the drama building in the locker room, and there is plenty of it. Antonio Brown wants a trade, Le'Veon Bell is tanning on a beach, and Mike Tomlin is losing the locker room (according to reports). But they're at Heinz Field, in primetime, against the Ravens. The Steelers always show up for this game. They will outlast Baltimore once again. 

Prediction: BAL 24, PIT 28

 KC @ DEN

Mahomes returns to the destination which he made his first career start, in Denver, where he threw for 284 yards in a 27-24 win for the Chiefs. Keep in mind that Mahomes did that without Kareem Hunt, Travis Kelce, and Tyreek Hill. He will have them all for this game, and nine more months of Andy Reid coaching and development. I'm glad I'm not a defensive coordinator, because I would never be able to stop this Chiefs offense. I don't know if anybody can.

Prediction: KC 33, DEN 21

Works Cited
Carlson, Adam. “Adam Thielen 65 Yard Touchdown Catch: Vikings vs Rams in Week 11.” The Viking Age, FanSided, 19 Nov. 2017, thevikingage.com/2017/11/19/adam-thielen-65-yard-touchdown-catch-vikings-vs-rams-week-11/.