Ripple effects of the 2021 quarterback carousel

Courtesy of Jeff Wisdon

In 2020, 42 year old Tom Brady hit the free agent market, and sent shockwaves rippling across the quarterback carousel. After signing with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Brady delivered them Super Bowl in his first season. 

This offseason, the quarterback scene in the NFL completely transformed after an unprecedented influx of transition under center. Four signal callers once drafted in the top 3 selections swapped uniforms, and 5 rookies were called during the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft. Other notable developments included the signings of Andy Dalton and Teddy Bridgewater, the ongoing sexual misconduct investigation into Deshaun Watson, and the retirement of the NFL's all-time passing leader, Drew Brees. 

Now that the dust has settled on the transactional period of the offseason, it is as appropriate a time as any to forecast the ripple effects of this year's quarterback carousel. Here, we will analyze the teams fielding new starters, including rookies, veterans, and franchises where the quarterback job is there for the taking. The analysis will include projecting the levels of success each new starter can expect to see in their first season in their new NFL cities. 

Trevor Lawrence to Duval 

Courtesy of James Gilbert

As soon as the Jacksonville Jaguars clinched the first overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, the football world knew exactly whose name would be called. Trevor Lawrence's highly anticipated arrival in Jacksonville runs parallel to Andrew Luck and Peyton Manning's landing in Indianapolis. Lawrence is a pure prototypical quarterback in the modern era. His accuracy is stellar, his athleticism and mobility are exceptional, and his pocket presence is generational.

In the 27 year history of the Jacksonville Jaguars, the team has appeared in the postseason just 7 times. They have also finished bottom of the AFC South 4 of the last 5 seasons, and have earned just one playoff berth since 2007. The franchise's all-time leading passer is Mark Brunell, and fans have watched countless others including Blake Bortles, Blaine Gabbert, and David Gerrard hopelessly spiral the team into oblivion. Lawrence falling into Jacksonville's lap breathes hope into the hearts of Duval County, and dreams of a brighter future.

Year one of the Trevor Lawrence and head coach Urban Myer partnership is mysterious to project, because of the abundance of unfamiliar faces. The Jaguars completely reshaped their roster and hired a first-year head coach with no NFL coaching experience. Lawrence will take the field with fellow Clemson Tiger Travis Etienne at running back alongside James Robinson, and will throw to a talented receiving core featuring DJ Chark, Marvin Jones, and Laviska Shenalt. Myer will improbably keep a leash on his rookie quarterback, measuring the level of playmaking ability the Jaguars have assembled. The coaching staff can design any offensive scheme they fancy to suit Lawrence's strengths, and make a giant leap in 2021. 

Zach Wilson to Broadway

After finishing 2-14 last season, the New York Jets kickstarted a full blown rebuild, beginning with the selection of quarterback Zach Wilson in the draft. The Jets sent former starter Sam Darnold to the Carolina Panthers before the draft, signaling the franchise would like to move in a different direction under center.

The Jets finished the 2020 season with the lowest ranked offense in yards per game and scoring, while Darnold ranked 33rd among quarterbacks in total QBR. The unit from top to bottom was atrociously constructed, and lacked impactful playmakers who Darnold could spread the ball. The Jets were  aggressive this offseason in hopes of surrounding their young quarterback with a support system capable of fostering his development and leading to winning football. The team signed free agents Corey Davis, and Keelan Cole, and drafted wideout Elijah Moore in the second round, and acquired free agent guard Dan Feeney and rookie lineman Alijah Vera-Tucker to bolster the offense on the perimeter and in the trenches.

Wilson, a BYU product, will be inserted as the day one starter in New York. In his final year in college, Wilson posted video game numbers, including 3,692 passing yards, 33 touchdowns to just 3 interceptions, and a completion percentage of 73.5. Wilson catapulted his draft stock with a phenomenal 2020 campaign, complimenting his natural arm talent and ability to roll outside the pocket and throw accurately downfield. He will be fortunate to have a much more adequate supporting cast than his predecessor, and a roster capable of making strides to winning football. 

The development of Wilson under first year head coach Robert Saleh will be pivotal to reestablishing the Jets into competitive relevancy. The Jets have not appeared in the postseason since 2010, which is currently the longest active playoff drought in the NFL. 

Rookie vs veteran: Jimmy Garappolo and Trey Lance

Courtesy of Thearon W. Henderson

Only one season after a Super Bowl appearance, the San Francisco 49ers are already looking to build their franchise for the future at quarterback. In the buildup to the draft, the 49ers agreed to a trade with the Miami Dolphins to leap from the 12th pick to the 3rd pick, sacrificing their first round picks for the next two drafts as well as a third rounder next year. It was a steep price to pay with Jimmy Garappolo signed to a $137 million contract, but the 49ers used the pick to select their quarterback of the future, Trey Lance, out of North Dakota State.

Lance's college resume is short and unpolished, given he has only played one full season of college football, and suited up for just one game this season before the pandemic cancelled his season. As a prospect, Lance is a multidimensional quarterback with explosive arm talent and electrifying mobility. There is also a small sample size of game tape of him on the field, and he is underdeveloped. Barring injury, he will not start Week 1. 

The 49ers are adamant that Garappolo is San Francisco's starting quarterback for 2021. The coaching staff firmly believe Garappolo gives the 49ers the best chance to win this season, with an established Super Bowl caliber roster ready to roll. Garappolo has earned the trust of the locker room and the coaching staff, and he is beloved by his teammates. But injuries and inconsistent performances in the 2020 season diminished belief from the front office that the 49ers can win long-term with Garappolo under center. The 49ers will hope that Lance's selection will light a fire into Garappolo in 2021, and encourage him to fill the same mentorship role which Tom Brady displayed to him in New England. 

Optimally, the 49ers replicate Kansas City's blueprint from 2017, when the Chiefs selected Patrick Mahomes with Alex Smith on the roster. Mahomes sat the entirety of his rookie season while Smith led the Chiefs to a division title, before Smith was traded in the offseason, and Mahomes inherited the reigns his second season. The 49ers may also decide to throw Lance onto the field sooner than 2022 if they see earlier promise in his development, or if the 49ers limp out to a poor start and Garappolo's performances underwhelm. But the writing is on the wall,  Garappolo's days in San Francisco are numbered. He will be wearing a different helmet in 2022, if not sooner.

Rookie vs veteran: Justin Fields and Andy Dalton

The Mitchell Trubisky era in Chicago came to an apathetic conclusion in the 2020 postseason, and the Bears have already drafted his replacement. The Bears traded up from the 20th selection to the 11th pick in the draft, with Ohio State sensation Justin Fields on the board. 

Fields profiles as an athletic pocket passer with the arm talent to make every NFL throw, who can also extend plays with his legs. He is also known for his Ironman toughness, playing through a hip pointer injury during the College Football Playoff Semifinal and Championship. The selection of Fields has completely reenergized the Bears fanbase, which was wallowing in a dark cave after a distasteful end to Trubisky's tenure in Chicago, and a failed attempt to acquire Russell Wilson. Fields similarly provides a shot at redemption for Bears general manager Ryan Pace, who is looking to reverse one of the greatest scouting gaffs in modern NFL history, when he passed on Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson at the top of the draft to select Mitchell Trubisky. 

As it stands, Andy Dalton is the Bears starter, and signed with the understanding that he would be the unquestioned starter. It is now unknown who will be the Week 1 starter under center for the Bears, but a head to head competition during training camp and preseason is likely. Dalton may get the nod based on seniority, and comfortability from the Bears coaching staff. But the Bears offense finished 26th in total yardage last season, and the unit was dull and flat in 2020. The offense should improve with a talented receiving core and a competitive backfield, but Dalton could struggle to bring the most out of the talent around him. 

Bears fans will be clamoring for Fields' debut as soon as possible, and for the franchise to begin evaluating him sooner than later. While Fields may not play right away, he will play in 2021, and his upside is stimulating for Bears fans.

Rookie vs veteran: Mac Jones and Cam Newton

Courtesy of Danny Jaillet

For the first time since 1993, the New England Patriots drafted a quarterback in the first round. Alabama quarterback Mac Jones was taken 15th overall, and he will compete with incumbent starter Cam Newton for the starting role in 2021.

The Patriots are hitting the reset button on the offense in the offseason, with new faces across the board at the skill positions. Head coach and general manager Bill Belichick signed free agent receivers Nelson Agholor, Kendrick Bourne, as well as a pair of A-list tight ends on the market, Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry. The weapons are far more diverse on New England's offense, and the team expects to make a leap in 2021. But the Patriots were a very limited offense last season, and it trickled down to the play of Cam Newton. 

The former league MVP threw 8 touchdown passes against 10 interceptions in 2020, and finishing 30th in total QBR (47.0). Nonetheless, Newton started all but one game last season (missed one game after testing positive for COVID-19) because he had the support of the locker room, and the trust of his head coach. Despite Newton consistently turning in one horrific performance after another, and leading one of the NFL's most liable offenses, Belichick started him every single week. Belichick will likely remain loyal to Newton during the following season as well, and continue to believe in him. Newton will be the Week 1 starter, barring a stunning unforeseen development for Jones. Belichick will prefer the rookie to backup, and possibly redshirt behind Jarrett Stidham in 2021. The Patriots still believe in Newton, and signed him to a one-year extension because they think they can win now with him under center. 

It would be far fetched for the Patriots to throw a rookie quarterback into the wolves after an aggressive offseason, heading into a make or break year. However, Jones could potentially take snaps this season if the offense continues to struggle, and Newton plays at the same level as this season. Jones profiles as a prototypical pocket passer, and comes into Foxboro from a timing-based offense. The Patriots won 6 Super Bowls with a timing-based offense, designed for the quarterback to throw the ball out of the hands quickly, and creating separation close to the line of scrimmage. Jones is stylistically suited to fill this role when the Patriots believe he is ready. But it would be likelier that Stidham takes snaps more so than the rookie, because Belichick is notorious for sitting young quarterbacks. 

Matt Stafford and Jared Goff swap teams

The Los Angeles Rams and Detroit Lions jumpstarted the carousel before the end of January when they swapped two former number one overall draft picks quarterbacks in a blockbuster deal. Twelve year veteran Matthew Stafford was sent to the Rams in exchange for fifth year starter Jared Goff, and a flurry of high-end draft picks. The Rams sent their first round picks for the next two drafts to the Lions in the exchange, in addition to a former starter in a Super Bowl. 

Stafford was a household name and a fan favorite in Detroit, but mutually agreed with the Lions following the regular season that it was time to move on. In 12 years in Detroit, Stafford recorded 45,109 passing yards and 282 touchdowns, with a win-loss record of 74-90-1, including an 0-3 record in the postseason. Stafford exits a franchise which has featured just one 1,000 yard rusher in his tenure and is winless in the playoffs since 1992, and steps into a roster which represented the NFC in the Super Bowl just three seasons ago. 

While the Lions' team-building miscalculations and inabilities to build around the star quarterback are well-documented, and Stafford is a prolific generational passer who did the best he could, the Rams are taking a gamble. Stafford finished his Lions career with just 4 winning seasons, and only 3 postseason appearances, with no wins. He is unproven on the big stage, in big moments. The spotlight will be shining on him in Los Angeles, with the front office expecting him to be the final missing piece to the puzzle. But the offensive weapons are there, the defensive talent is unquestioned, and Sean McVay's coaching and his staff are spectacular. The Stafford-McVay marriage should be a complimentary one, which will bring the most out of the pass catchers on the offensive side of the ball, and bolster their Super Bowl hopes.  

Contrastingly, the Goff-McVay marriage ended up in flames, and Goff's level of play regressed substantially. In two subsequent seasons following a trip to Super Bowl LIII, Goff has been wildly inconsistent, throwing a cumulative 42 touchdowns and 29 interceptions. Goff's play stood out as a liability despite the playmakers on the perimeter, and the mastermind coaching. 

Now Goff walks into a building in rebuild mode, led by a first-year head coach and featuring an unproven, inexperienced receiving core featuring the likes of Kalif Raymond, Breshad Perriman, and Amon-Ra St. Brown. The trade marks a new beginning for Goff, who is the unquestioned starter for Detroit, and will look to recapture the confidence of a fanbase and a franchise. But the Lions are widely expected to be one of the NFL's bottom feeders in 2021. If Goff is to revitalize his career, he will hope to show the Lions front office he is a part of the long-term solution, and not at the core of their problems.

Carson Wentz traded to Colts

Courtesy of Philadelphia Eagles

Only 5 seasons after being drafted second overall, and 3 seasons after leading the race for MVP candidacy, Carson Wentz was shipped away from the Philadelphia Eagles in the offseason. The Indianapolis Colts acquired Wentz for a 2021 third round pick, and a conditional 2022 second round pick. 

The trade marks a stunning chain of regression for Wentz, after what started as an exceptionally promising career. In 2017, Wentz tossed 33 touchdown passes against 7 interceptions, leading the Eagles to the number one seed in the NFC before Nick Foles snatched the reigns and won Super Bowl LII as a backup quarterback. In 2020, Wentz contended as the worst starting quarterback in the NFL. Wentz threw 16 touchdowns to 15 interceptions while taking 50 sacks in just 12 games, and posting a 3-8-1 record. 

The rate at which Wentz regressed in such a windowed period is alarming, but it can be attributed to a variety of inhibitory crimes the Eagles were guilty of committing. The Athletic published an article last month documenting accounts of toxicity and dysfunction in Philadelphia stemming from ownership trickling all thee way down the locker room. Wentz's relationship with head coach Doug Pederson soured over the course of the 2020 season, which resulted in the two not speaking to each other for over two months. The selection of Jalen Hurts in the second round of the 2020 NFL Draft evidently jolted Wentz's confidence, and Pederson's treatment of him developed into Wentz slowly falling out of favor in the Eagles locker room, in addition to his benching in December. 

Perhaps Wentz's destiny was predetermined in Philadelphia, playing quarterback for a politically damaged Eagles establishment. The Colts understand the risk of trading for him, but they are banking on such palpable upside. Reuniting with former Eagles offensive coordinator Frank Reich will instill full belief in Indianapolis that the Colts can ignite a career comeback for Wentz. During their time together in Philly, Wentz enjoyed a benevolent personal relationship with the now Colts head coach, and played his best football under Reich's scheme in his first 2 years in the league, when he threw a total of 49 touchdown passes. He will be dropping back from behind one of the NFL's most secure offensive lines, calling plays from a coach and a man he trusts deeply, and reporting to a much stabler atmosphere in the Colts facility.

At only 28 years old, Wentz's career still has a shot at redemption. If he can rediscover zen and peace of mind in Indianapolis, refining his physical mechanics will not be nearly as challenging. 

Sam Darnold traded to Panthers

Courtesy of Jae C. Hong

Former New York Jets quarterback was traded to the Carolina Panthers at the outset of April. The Panthers sent a 2022 second rounder and fourth rounder to the Jets to acquire the former number three overall selection in the 2018 NFL Draft. Darnold is entering just his 4th season as a pro. 

Darnold's career has been remarkably forgettable, and he has yet to make an impact on the field. He has thrown 45 touchdown passes to 39 interceptions in 3 seasons, and has never played a full 16 game season in the NFL. His subpar play is widely framed as highly circumstantial, and attributable to the dysfunction surrounding him at Florham Park. The Jets front office consistently failed to surround Darnold with an adequate supporting cast, including one of the NFL's worst offensive lines and receiving cores. He was coached by Adam Gase for two seasons, a so-called offensive mind who has produced disastrous results and was known for scapegoating his players in defeat. 

Despite the inhibitory disadvantages of playing in New York, Darnold has hardly displayed any semblance of production at the NFL level. The Panthers are acquiring an unknown commodity with no respectable track record. From a production standpoint, the Panthers are downgrading from Teddy Bridgewater. But a change of scenery could benefit Darnold's development in Carolina, especially in tandem with the gadgets and gizmos on the Panthers offense. Darnold will reunite with former Jets receiver Robby Anderson, and team up with DJ Moore on the outside and Christian McCaffrey in the backfield. The Panthers have assembled a high-powered offense with untapped potential, and they hope that Darnold can unlock it for them. 

It was no secret that the Panthers were actively seeking an upgrade at the quarterback position in the offseason. They were reportedly in trade negotiations for Matt Stafford before the Lions traded him, and Deshaun Watson prior to the emergence of sexual misconduct allegations. Darnold is admittedly a fallback for Carolina, but a marginal risk considering the compensation they gave up. 

Open competition: Teddy Bridgewater vs Drew Lock

Denver Broncos starting quarterback Drew Lock is entering his third year in the NFL, but will have to fight to remain the starter in 2021. Prior to the draft, the Broncos traded for veteran quarterback Teddy Bridgewater from the Panthers in exchange for a 6th round pick in this year's draft. Broncos general manager George Paton said that Bridgewater adds competition to the quarterback room, and brings a strong veteran presence and starting experience. 

The trade marks Bridgewater's 5th team since 2017, and yet another chance to prove himself as a winning starter in the NFL. In Carolina, Bridgewater threw 15 touchdown passes against 11 interceptions last season, after signing a 3 year, $63 million contract. The 28 year old fell short with the Panthers in crunch moments, specifically fourth quarter and 2 minute offense. Bridgewater threw just one touchdown pass in the fourth quarter in all of last season. The journeyman is characterized for holding the ball too long, hesitating to pull the trigger, and inaccuracy with the game on the line. He is a dependable game manager when paired with a strong running game, as he had in Minnesota. Bridgewater has a shot to be the Week 1 starter, and will push Lock to earn his spot. 

As the incumbent, Lock has the advantage of familiarity with the Broncos offense, and standing chemistry with the personnel. But Bridgewater's acquisition occurred for a reason. Lock struggled in his sophomore year, completing just 57.5 percent of his passes, and throwing just 16 touchdowns to a league-leading 15 interceptions. Lock's development has been plagued by inaccuracy and habitual turnovers, discouraging the Broncos brass that he is the quarterback of the future. But notably, Lock has started just 18 games in his short professional career. There is still room to grow for Lock's development because the sample size of evaluation is so limited. The Broncos expect Lock to make strides in his third year, when they notably passed on taking a quarterback with the 9th overall pick in the draft. 

Broncos head coach Vic Fangio has established that the quarterback position will be an open competition at training camp. Lock and Bridgewater will split the reps "50-50" in training camp and preseason, before a decision is made. Lock should be considered the favorite, being a former Broncos second round pick with 2 years remaining on his rookie contract. But Bridgewater has a chance if the coaching staff determines he gives the team the best chance to win now.

Open competition: Jameis Winston vs Taysom Hill

Courtesy of Jared C. Tilton

Future Hall of Famer Drew Brees retired in March, marking the end of an era in New Orleans. While the Saints did not sign or draft any quarterbacks in the offseason, Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill remain under contract for the upcoming season. The two are expected to compete for the starting job this summer.

When Brees was sidelined last season due to fractured ribs, head coach Sean Payton rolled out Hill. In 4 starts, Hill threw 4 touchdown passes against 2 interceptions, while rushing 39 times for 209 yards and scoring 4 touchdown runs. Hill is New Orleans' Swiss army knife on offense, and he is fielded as a quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end, and a weapon on special teams. As a bonafide starting quarterback, the Saints possess a profound amount of belief in him. But Hill is wildly inexperienced at the position, and a rather curtailed passer with accuracy and arm strength limitations. Hill has thrown 4 touchdown passes in his entire career, and he will be 31 years old in August. His positional mechanics are unrefined and exploitable, and he is very much a short-term solution at quarterback.

Winston is a former number one overall draft pick, and is looking for a second chance to be a starter in the NFL. His arm talent is unquestioned. In five years as the Bucs starting quarterback, Winston threw 121 touchdowns, and surpassed 5,000 passing yards in his final season as a starter. But he is notoriously criticized for turning the ball over. Winston has thrown 88 interceptions in his career, including 30 in his final year in Tampa. His habitual turnovers undermine his otherwise gifted abilities as a passer. Winston is a dynamic quarterback with explosive arm talent and excellent accuracy, minus the interceptions. In New Orleans, Winston can remind the league he is still a phenomenal passer, and he can have a successful career filling Brees' shoes at the Saints.

Hill and Winston will both compete for the starting job, with Winston the more sensical pick, but Hill more preferred by Payton. Winston is far more experienced, younger, and has a track record of success in the NFL. Hill would be more effective in the Saints offense as a rotational skill position, taking snaps out wide and in the backfield, rather than under center. Payton will likely keep the competition open through the preseason. 

Deshaun Watson's status in limbo, with Tyrod Taylor and Davis Mills waiting in the wings

As it stands, Deshaun Watson is the starting quarterback for the Houston Texans. As the days go on, it seems less and less likely that Watson will hold onto his roster spot in Houston by the beginning of the NFL season. Twenty-two lawsuits have been filled against Watson in the offseason, alleging inappropriate behavior and sexual misconduct. The NFL is currently conducting an investigation adjacent to the civil lawsuits, and the Texans are waiting for the investigation to conclude before potentially taking action on the situation. 

In league circles widespread, insiders expect Watson never to play for the Texans again. The NFL may suspend Watson, and the Texans may release him outright after the investigation is concluded. Watson's status leaves the Houston quarterback job in complete limbo, and it is unknown what to expect from here. But the Texans have installed contingency plans in the event that Watson is severely retributed. 

The next man up would be journeyman quarterback Tyrod Taylor. Last seen suffering from a punctured lung at the Chargers, Taylor is best known for starting for 3 seasons with the Buffalo Bills, while holding the fort down and playing risk-free football to avoid throwing the costly interception. Taylor's mobility is in the same realm as Watson, but he is notoriously cautious with the football. He is Houston's Plan B at the position, and could foreseeably start and finish the 2021 campaign. 

Should Taylor be unseated, it would be in favor of rookie quarterback Davis Mills. The Texans selected Mills in the third round of the draft last month with their first pick of the draft. Mills started just one year in college at Stanford, and was not pegged by scouts as a day one starter. The team will insist that there is no timetable in place for Mills to see the field, and there is no reason to. There is practically no rush to give Mills snaps, especially if he develops slowly in his rookie season. The Texans are fielding a far less competitive team than last year, and are likely to finish with one of the NFL's worst win-loss records. They will try to develop their rookie quarterback and protect him, but could decide to start him to accelerate the evaluation process going into 2022.