Super Bowl LV Predix: Chiefs vs Buccaneers

Courtesy of Kansas City Chiefs

The stage is set for Super Bowl Sunday.

The NFC Champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers challenge the AFC Champion and reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LV this Sunday night at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers will become the first team in NFL history to play in the Super Bowl on home turf, while the Chiefs are looking to become the first Super Bowl champion to repeat since the 2004 New England Patriots. The NFL will welcome 25,000 fans into the stands to watch the game on Super Bowl Sunday, including 7,500 vaccinated healthcare workers, to watch the fifth matchup between star quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes against Tom Brady. Two heavyweights squaring off for what could be the final time. 

It was far from a yellow brick road for the NFL to navigate a historic pandemic while playing a full season, but here we are. We have reached the finish line to a turbulent season which was far from promised every step of the way. After 256 regular season games and 10 postseason games, it is time to celebrate the curtain closer to the 2020 NFL season in style, with what should be a classic. Thank you to my readers for supporting Franchise Quarterback all season long, and for your continued loyalty this year and years past. Without further ado, enjoy my comprehensive preview of the biggest game in the land, Super Bowl LV. 

Here are my records from this season:

Conference Championship record: 0-2

Regular season record: 163-92-1 (63.6% accuracy)

Postseason record: 6-6

Regular and postseason record: 169-98-1 (63.0% accuracy)

Back-to-Back

Pre-game jitters will not shake this Chiefs squad, which just played in last year's Super Bowl. They will also not be intimidated by Tom Brady's presence on the opposing sideline, after dispatching of him in Kansas City's Week 12 win over the Buccaneers in the regular season. Patrick Mahomes thoroughly dismantled Tampa's secondary in that meeting, throwing for 462 yards and 3 touchdown passes. Tyreek Hill exploded for 203 yards and 2 touchdowns in the first quarter alone, and guided the Chiefs to a rapid quick 17-0 lead in the opening 15 minutes. While the scoreline read 27-24, the Chiefs won convincingly on the field, and the result was hardly in doubt. 

This time around, the Chiefs will be short of key pieces up front. Left tackle Eric Fisher is out of the Super Bowl after tearing his Achilles in the AFC Championship, and right tackle Mitchell Schwartz is expected to miss out as well as he continues to deal with a nagging back injury. While the Chiefs will welcome back Le'Veon Bell and Sammy Watkins into the fold, the offensive line could prove to be a glaring vulnerability going up against an aggressive Bucs pass rush. The Chiefs offense can be slowed down if the Bucs pass rushers are winning one-on-one in the trenches off the snap, and knocking Mahomes down in the pocket. Mahomes will need channel his inner escape artist, and will likely have to evade free rushers all game long. The Chiefs can offset this with a short pass game-plan, leaning on quick screens and short routes to Hill and Mecole Hardman. Integrating the run game as well will only benefit Mahomes. An unbalanced air-raid approach may play right into Tampa's hands if the offensive line falls back. 

Courtesy of Kim Klement

Despite Fisher and Schwartz both out, the Chiefs thrive on exploiting aggressive defenses. The mobility of Mahomes is one of the most under-appreciated facets to his game, and is capable of making men miss in space. The Chiefs offense is diverse enough that it can keep the Bucs defense on its heels with a  methodical offensive game-plan. The high octane Chiefs attack can slow down the likes of Jason Pierre-Paul and Shaquill Barrett with quick screens on the outside, and short passes over the middle to Hill and Travis Kelce. But when the Bucs send blitz packages, Mahomes will be ready to dial up a home run ball to Hill over the top, and give Bucs fans flashbacks to Kansas City's offensive palooza in Week 12.

Defensively, the Chiefs can take advantage of the Bucs offense as well. Brady tossed 2 second half interceptions against them in Week 12, and threw 3 interceptions in the second half of the NFC Championship. The Chiefs defense is underrated for their opportunistic playmaking ability, especially at the crucial moments. Safety Tyrann Mathieu has 5 interceptions in his last 7 games, and will be a thorn in Brady's sights all night. Defensive lineman Chris Jones is quietly one of the most disruptive game wreckers in the NFL, and can collapse the pocket and force Brady to take sacks and force errant passes. The Chiefs will be confident they can disrupt Brady's rhythm as they did in Week 12, and bury them into another early deficit. It will be difficult to keep Brady at bay for 60 minutes, but the Chiefs can exploit Brady for the 43 year old married father of three which he is with a fast-paced, aggressive approach. 

In Their Own Backyard

In his just his first season in Florida, Tom Brady has led the Buccaneers to a Super Bowl appearance. Sunday night will mark Brady's 10th Super Bowl appearance in 20 years as a starting quarterback. It will also mark Brady's third appearance since turning 40 years old. Brady's production on the season has been incredible, throwing 40 touchdown passes to just 12 interceptions, while completing 64 percent of his passes and posting a 97.3 quarterback rating. He has also thrust the Buccaneers back into the limelight, who are back in the postseason for the first time since 2007, and have a chance to become the first team in NFL history to win the Super Bowl at home.

Courtesy of Kim Klement

Brady aside, the talent on this roster is unquestioned and as terrifying as any team in the league. But a haphazard November and December filled with bumps and bruises throughout the regular season suggested maybe the Bucs were a disjointed group of individuals. Despite their trip to the Super Bowl, they were one of the NFL's streakiest teams during the regular season, and it was impossible to determine which version of the Bucs would take the field any given Sunday. At times, the age of their quarterback came to the forefront in the most disparaging ways. Against the Chiefs in Week 12, Brady completed 66 percent of his passes for 345 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions in the second half. The Bucs were out-gained by the Chiefs in the first half of their Week 12 clash in yardage by a margin of 377 yards to Tampa's 131. Another slow start in the Super Bowl will bury them much earlier than in the regular season. Turnovers from Brady and gifting Mahomes extra possessions could be immeasurably costly. The Bucs defense was able to bail Brady out in the NFC Championship after he threw 3 interceptions against the Packers, but they should not be expected to save the day again, especially against the league's number one offense. 

The Bucs tried to slow the Chiefs down with zone-heavy defensive personnel in November, but they were thoroughly schooled. Soft zone coverage against the speed of the Chiefs offense is playing with fire, and it backfired out of the gate in the last meeting. Defensive coordinator Todd Bowles has to be creative in devising coverages to confuse and fluster Mahomes. Blitzing him is usually a volatile formula, but consistent four man rush packages could be enough to overpower Kansas City's shorthanded offensive line. The Bucs cannot play conservatively on either side of the ball, never mind defense, to beat the reigning champions. Dialing up the pressure on Mahomes in the pocket and forcing him to extend his reads outside the pocket may be the only way to slow down the offense. Even then, the Bucs offense will likely have to outscore them in a track meet.

Brady and the Bucs can hang in a shootout, especially with the weapons at his disposal. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are a prolific one-two punch on the perimeter, and Antonio Brown could be the decisive X-factor to take this offense over the top. Brown is a former All-Pro at the receiver position, and has gradually become more comfortable in Tampa's system, and has developed a rapport with Brady. And of course, ol' reliable, 31 yer old Rob Gronkowski, is still a game changer at the tight end position, and has been Brady's favorite target for a decade-plus. The Bucs certainly have the weapons to match the Chiefs, but it will take mistake-free, complementary football to be competitive in the Super Bowl. Long methodical drives to chew the clock out and keep Mahomes and crew on the sideline can be an effective strategy, so long as the Bucs are opportunistic on third zone and in the red zone. 

Prediction: Chiefs 37, Buccaneers 26

Most Valuable Player: Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

Courtesy of John McCall

It doesn't matter what Todd Bowles and the Bucs defensive coaching staff have schemed up in the last 2 weeks. The Bucs will be aggressive, and the air-raid Chiefs can exploit that in shining colors. The Chiefs offense is unstoppable. The Tampa secondary was roasted in Week 12, and there's no reason to believe they aren't going to be stretched wide open once again by the best offense in the land. Tom Brady will be denied his seventh Super Bowl win, and Patrick Mahomes will collect his second along with head coach Andy Reid.

Predicting the winning quarterback to be named Super Bowl MVP is boring and repetitive, but it is also the consistent trend. Seven of the previous 10 Super Bowl MVPs were quarterbacks, and the last non-quarterback to win the award was Von Miller in Super Bowl 50. If the Chiefs win the Super Bowl, Mahomes will have to play like Houdini, running behind a shorthanded offensive line with two starters missing on the outside, including his blindside blocker. Besides, if his performance against the Bucs in Week 12 is any indication, Mahomes will shine bright once again this Sunday night. Mahomes will become the first player to win back-to-back Super Bowl MVPs since Terry Bradshaw did it back in 1979. 

A new dynasty will be born on Super Bowl Sunday. The Chiefs will bring back their third Lombardi Trophy back to Kansas City, and cement themselves as the next great football dynasty. Until someone knocks them off their pedestal, the Kansas City Chiefs are the greatest football team on the planet. They're in a league of their own.

Follow Sam DeCoste on Twitter @thesamdecoste