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| Photo courtesy of Icon Sportswire |
Written by Sam DeCoste
The first quarter-season is in the books! After everything we've been through, the NFL has played 63 games, and we are entering Week 5. My Week 4 predictions fared well, correctly picking 10 of 15 games. I probably should have picked the Broncos and not the Jets, and the battle of 0-3 squads did not go the way I thought it would. My Lock of the Week also let me down, because I overestimated the 49ers quarterback situation against a winless Eagles squad. But 10-5 is a solid record and I will gladly take that. But I refuse to get complacent. This week needs to be even better.
Week 5 is loaded with great football in store. The week kicks off on Thursday night with the 3-1 Bucs and 3-1 Bears facing off, and concludes on Monday night with the Chargers taking on the Saints in New Orleans. Without any further delay, let's dive right in. Week 5, let's do this!
Here are my records from this season:
Week 4 record: 10-5
Regular season record: 43-19-1
Lock of the Week record: 2-2
BYES: Lions, Packers
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| Buccaneers @ Bears |
This week marks the first time Tom Brady will face off against Nick Foles since Super Bowl LII, with each quarterback suiting up for a new team. This game will certainly play out very differently from the last time these Super Bowl MVPs faced off.
Tom Brady is beginning to hit his stride in the Tampa red and white. The 6 time Super Bowl champion threw 5 touchdown passes in the win over the Chargers last week, and is starting to come into his own as Tampa's starter. Brady and the Bucs have a tough task traveling to Chicago on a short week, but the offense is clicking at just the right time. Mike Evans racked 122 yards receiving along with a touchdown, and Scott Miller's second half performance played a key role in taking the win last week. Losing O.J. Howard for the season is devastating, despite Tampa's depth at the tight end position. Howard is the most dynamic tight end on the Bucs, but his absence will see Rob Gronkowski become a more prominent threat in the passing game.
The Bears need to improve their offensive output, because last week was pathetic. Chicago mustered 269 yards of offense against the Colts, with just 28 yards on the ground. With the merry-go-round at the quarterback position, the running game needs to become the focal point of the offense. David Montgomery has a tough matchup against Tampa's number two ranked rush defense, and is coming off a 27 yard performance a week ago. Nick Foles will inevitably be counted on to make plays himself, and involve Allen Robinson and Jimmy Graham. But the passing game is not Chicago's strength, and it certainly is not going to be up to snuff going head-to-head with Tom Brady and the Bucs.
Brady and the Bucs have momentum to build on, whereas the Bears are still adjusting to the Nick Foles experience. The Bucs win.
Prediction: Buccaneers 23, Bears 16
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| Bills @ Titans |
It has been two weeks since we last saw the Titans in action, but they are still undefeated. Derrick Henry led the league in rushing yards before Week 4, and is going to tote the rock 25-plus times against the Bills. Tennessee will look to keep Josh Allen and the Bills offense on the sideline as much as possible, and control the clock. Corey Davis and Adam Humphries will be unavailable after being placed on the team's COVID reserve list, which will see Jonnu Smith and Kalif Raymond's targets increased. It is going to be difficult for Tennessee to muster consistent offense with such a shorthanded receiving core, and to outscore Buffalo.
The Buffalo Bills have never looked better on offense. The team averages 30 points per game, and Josh Allen is second in the NFL in passing yardage. The trident of Stefon Diggs, John Brown, and Cole Beasley is wreaking havoc in oppoosing secondaries, and the Titans are in for a similar afternoon. This week also presents an opportunity for the Bills defense to regain their mojo, because they have started the season slow. The Bills are allowing 280 passing yards per game, and have been getting carved by the likes of Jared Goff and Derek Carr. If the Bills can start fast and score early, they can mitigate Henry's carries, and force Ryan Tannehill to drop back 40 times. Then the game will play right into Buffalo's hands, where Josh Allen can continue his MVP tear on offense.
The Bills are far and away the best team even when both teams are fully healthy. Considering everything the Titans have been through, and the unavailable personnel, the Bills are primed to move to 5-0.
Prediction: Bills 31, Titans 17
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| Raiders @ Chiefs |
It was a disappointing loss for the Raiders last week to the Bills, and the previous two games have presented a lot of issues. The offense lacks a downfield threat without Henry Ruggs, and appears very one-dimensional. If Josh Jacobs is not running for over 100 yards, the offense is rather pedestrian. The Raiders will have to keep up with the Chiefs on the scoreboard, and the Raiders are not built to do that. Nelson Agholor may be the most explosive downfield threat for the Raiders right now, which is not the level of game-changing ability that will match up with Kansas City. Agholor, Hunter Renfrow, and Darren Waller will need to play the games of their lives to keep up.
The Raiders-Chiefs AFC West rivalry has hardly been competitive the last few seasons. The last time the Raiders beat the Chiefs was the 2017 season, and the Raiders are 1-9 since the 2015 season. The Chiefs will come out on top, in impressive style.
Prediction: Raiders 13, Chiefs 31
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| Panthers @ Falcons |
If you read into most preseason projections, you would probably think the Panthers were a scrap heap. But Carolina doesn't care about nerd football analytics, they are 2-2 with wins over the Chargers and Cardinals. Teddy Bridgewater is having an efficient start to his Panthers career, and is completing 73 percent of his passes. Robby Anderson started the season strong, reeling in 28 receptions for 377 yards. Without Christian McCaffrey, the offense has stepped up and delivered. The offense is primed for a breakout performance against the 31st ranked Falcons defense, and potentially move to a winning record. The Panthers have no right being this competitive, but so far, they are a dangerous out.
Things aren't so chirpy in Atlanta. The Falcons are 0-4 for the first time since 1999. This team should be 2-2, and very much in NFC South contention. Despite their loaded offense and the dominant emergence of Calvin Ridley, and Julio Jones and Todd Gurley registering breakout performances, the Falcons defense is unwatchable. The Falcons can still win this game if the offense plays their best game of the season. Matt Ryan is quietly still playing at the top of his game, and the receiving core is among the league's elite. The Panthers defense does not have the personnel to match the likes of Jones, Ridley, Hurst, and Gage, and the Falcons should feel confident that they can set the tone on offense this week back in Atlanta.
Every week is a must-win for head coach Dan Quinn, whose days are numbered in Atlanta. While the Panthers should be considered favorites, everything is on the line for the Falcons, and they are desperate to buck their losing start to 2020. The Falcons should win this one, because they are going to want it a lot more.
Prediction: Panthers 23, Falcons 29
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| Eagles @ Steelers |
The Steelers return to play this week after a de facto bye week, with their matchup against the Titans postponed from last week. They are going to lean on the run game as they did in Week 3, especially after an abrupt week off. Juju Smith Schuster will be marked by Darius Slay, leaving James Washington and Chase Claypool in prime position for big downfield plays. Truth be told, the Eagles defense does not match up with the Steelers personnel. Mike Tomlin can draw up any gameplan he sees suitable, because the Steelers are far and away the superior team.
Despite the win over the hamstrung 49ers, the Eagles are a dumpster fire. The Eagles gave up 417 yards to the Niners, including 300 to the likes of Nick Mullens and C.J. Beathard, and they were a Beathard end zone bomb away from losing again. Carson Wentz and the offense needs to step up for the Eagles to overcome their defensive woes, but the offensive line will be an epic liability. Jason Kelce is the only remaining starter that played in Week 1, creating an abundance of new offensive line combinations, disrupting schematics and chemistry, and leaving Wentz vulnerable to a tumultuous day at the office. The likes of T.J. Watt, Stephon Tuitt, and Cam Hayward will be licking their lips at the prospect this week presents.
This Pennsylvania battle will be decided at the line of scrimmage. The Steelers will dominate said line of scrimmage, and win in decisive fashion.
Prediction: Eagles 10, Steelers 29
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| Cardinals @ Jets |
The Cardinals have slowed down after a hot start to the season. Two losses to the Lions and Panthers leave Arizona right back where they started, and searching for answers. The Cards offense is playing at a one-dimensional level, and the defense is giving up 125 yards per game on the ground. Running Kyler Murray around and looking for DeAndre Hopkins is not a sustainable layout for the Cardinals. The passing game needs to take a step up, and the Jets provide the ideal bounceback performance for Arizona to do so. Hopkins is in for another 10-plus catch game, and the Cardinals will move the ball with ease. If Kenyan Drake can get going, that will go a long way for Arizona's offensive development, and lessen the burden on Murray.
Sam Darnold showed how good he can be with better coaching in an impressive performance last Thursday night, but he is nursing a shoulder injury. Now 35 year old Joe Flacco is thrust into the starting quarterback slot, making for an even uglier outlook for the Jets. Arizona is going to ground and pound with the speed and explosiveness of Murray and Drake, but Flacco is as mobile as a statue in the pocket. He will be annihilated in the pocket behind New York's horrific offensive line, and the running game will be stifled too quickly for it to become a factor for the Jets. Adam Gase will put Flacco in a position to drop back 50 times and keep up with the Cardinals, but that is a recipe for disaster. Chandler Jones is in for a career game.
The Cardinals are losing games they shouldn't, but the Jets shouldn't be competitive with them this week. Arizona will steamroll
Prediction: Cardinals 31, Jets 9
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| Bengals @ Ravens |
The Ravens are back in the winning column, but their performance against Washington left more to be desired. As always, the running game was at full flight with Lamar Jackson, and the team totaled 144 yards on the ground, but the running backs struggled to find any openings. The Ravens have a chance to rip the Bengals to shreds on the ground, who surrender an average of 159 yards on the ground per game. Last time these two teams faced off, Jackson broke the Internet with a Madden-esque touchdown run sprinkled with stutter steps and jukes along the way. Ravens fans could be in for more of the same this week, but will hope to see more Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews involvement thru the air as well.
For the rookie quarterback, it has been a rude awakening to how fast the NFL moves. But for Joe Burrow, the Bengals snatched their first win of the year against the Jaguars, carried by Joe Mixon's 3 touchdown performance. Burrow will hope to build on Cincy's first ounce of momentum this season, but the Ravens present the rookie's biggest test yet. The Ravens blitz-heavy defense will smother the Bengals offensive line all game long, which has already given up 15 sacks in 4 games. The Bengals should prioritize Mixon's role, and try to minimize Burrow's responsibilities. But the Ravens are stout against the run, ranking 7th in football. If Mixon is smothered early, it's Burrow time. That does not bode well against a formidable Ravens defense.
Burrow-Jackson projects to be an entertaining division rivalry for the next decade-plus. In round one, the Ravens are considerable favorites, and should not stumble en route to a comfortable win.
Prediction: Bengals 13, Ravens 29
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| Rams @ Football Team |
Over in the nation's capital, Washington is starting Kyle Allen at quarterback. The former Panthers backup is starting for the first time this season against the Rams, with former first rounder Dwayne Haskins relegated to the bench. Does Kyle Allen give the Rams a better chance to win than Dwayne Haskins? No, not even a little bit. By the virtue of Allen's Carolina roots, Ron Rivera fancies him this week more than Haskins. Washington will hope that Allen will invigorate the offense and breathe life into the team, but that is not going to happen. Hopefully Antonio Gibson carries the ball 20-plus times and the Football Team can be productive on the ground.
The decision to start Kyle Allen may flash some promise initially, but as Carolina saw last season, the honeymoon will be over shortly. The Rams are not the team for Allen to start fast. Look for the Rams to look like themselves again this weekend.
Prediction: Rams 27, Football Team 12
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| Jaguars @ Texans |
Entering Week 5, we have already seen the first head coaching firing of the season. Head coach and general manager Bill O'Brien has been axed from Houston, and this decision may liberate the Texans squad into hitting a gear they have not already this season.
For the Texans to turn the tide on 2020, the offensive line needs to protect Deshaun Watson. The 160 million dollar man has taken a beating in the pocket this season, taking 16 sacks in 4 games. The Texans offense is built with speed on the perimeter, which takes time for the likes of Brandin Cooks and Will Fuller to run downfield. David Johnson will need to become a focal point of the offense to make that happen. As much as Texans fans would love to reverse the decision to bring Johnson in at all, it is what it is. But Johnson is a very talented back, and he can change the game if the Texans hand him the ball more than 13 times per contest. For a team struggling in pass protection, the run game is a solid safety blanket.
Gardner Minshew and the Jaguars came out firing, but their momentum has tailed off. The Jags are on a three game losing skid and face a Texans squad desperate for their first win. Their best bet of upsetting Houston is pressuring the quarterback and forcing turnovers. Stealing possessions from Deshaun Watson can put Minshew in short field situations, and run it down Houston's throat with James Robinson and find D.J. Chark and Keelan Cole on play-action.
It may be silly to suggest that firing the head coach will check the players back in, but under Bill O'Brien, the players were completely checked out. The Texans will win their first game of the season this weekend.
This is my Lock of the Week.
Prediction: Jaguars 13, Texans 28
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| Dolphins @ 49ers |
The Dolphins may be the best-worst team in football this season. They've put up a fight against the Pats, Bills, and Seahawks despite losing each contest. Just last Sunday, the Seahawks were clinging to a 2 point lead in the fourth quarter in Miami, but the Seahawks asserted their superiority by the end of the contest. But the Dolphins start slow, rally in the second half, but falter in the fourth quarter. The defense remains a liability, and needs to step up this week against a 49ers offense missing key weapons. As long as Ryan Fitzpatrick can find DeVante Parker and Mike Geisicki in stride, they will keep the 49ers in a deficit. The Dolphins can run away with the game early if they start fast and keep the 49ers off the board early on.
At full strength, the 49ers outmatch the Dolphins from top to bottom, and this game would not be close. The 49ers offense will be close to full strength with the returns of Garappolo and Mostert, not to mention Deebo Samuel is back. It could be close, but the 49ers are the better team on the field this Sunday.
Prediction: Dolphins 17, 49ers 24
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| Colts @ Browns |
On paper, this is a heavyweight showdown between a top offense and top defense. The Colts are currently the highest ranked defense in the NFL, and the Browns offense ranks first in rushing, and fourth in points.
Miraculously, the Browns halted the Cowboys comeback attempt and held on to move to 3-1 on the season. It's no wonder the Browns scored 49 points in Dallas last week, they racked 307 yards rushing. The ground game is clearly Cleveland's identity on offense. Without Nick Chubb, the production will invariably slow down. Against a stout Colts front 7, Kareem Hunt will be thrust into a bigger role with 20 plus carries, and D'Ernest Johnson will become the complementary back. If the ground game can move the ball efficiently, then Baker Mayfield can exploit the Colts secondary on play-action, and put the ball back in Odell Beckham Jr's hands, who scored 3 touchdowns last week.
While the Colts defense is allowing just 236 yards per game, and have proven to be one of the league's elite units, Philip Rivers is the X-factor this week. The Colts offense must move the ball consistently themselves, and keep Cleveland's top ranked rushing offense on the sidelines. The Colts mustered only 289 yards against the Bears, and they will need to rely on their offense more often if they have any chance of outscoring Cleveland. The only statistic you need to know about the Colts this season is that rookie kicker Rodrigo Blankenship has outscored each of Indy's opponents by himself this season. Yes, Blankenship is scoring more points than the other team on a weekly basis.
In a strength versus strength matchup, the offense is often the safe bet. In this instance, the Colts are the favorites. I do not believe we live in a reality where the Browns move to 4-1, especially after watching them nearly blow a 27 point lead to the Cowboys. The Colts will keep their momentum rolling and snatch another gritty defensive win.
Prediction: Colts 23, Browns 13
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| Giants @ Cowboys |
Rooting for the 2020 Cowboys is a heart attack. The offense averages 510 yards per game, and gives up 431 on the other side. Dak Prescott became the first quarterback ever to pass for 450 yards in three straight games, but that's because he is dropping back 60 times per game and rallying his team from 20-plus point deficits. If the Cowboys start fast, they can set the tone right away and force their opponents to play catch-up for once. It is also crucial to avoid turnovers. Avoid turnovers. Avoid turnovers. The Cowboys lead the NFL in giveaways this season with 9, including 3 against the Browns. That number needs to stay at zero this Sunday.
The Giants should be confident they can march into Dallas and blow up the scoreboard. But even as putrid as the Cowboys defense is, the Giants offense is not built to score 30 points even this Sunday. The Giants are tied for the worst offense in football, averaging just 278 yards per contest. The Giants are also right behind the Cowboys in giveaways this season with 8. This game could be competitive if Danny Dimes can dish out deep passes for four quarters and keep up with the Cowboys high octane offense. But Daniel Jones is also the third-most sacked quarterback in the NFL, and he will need his offensive line to hold up. Golden Tate and Darius Slayton will need to have the games of their lives as well.
If the Cowboys can't beat a middling Giants team without Saquon Barkley, then it's game over. Except it wouldn't be, since the NFC East is so horrific.
Prediction: Giants 20, Cowboys 31
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| Broncos @ Patriots |
Who will be available for New England this week assuming the game presumes as scheduled is anyone's guess. Cam Newton will not be there, with him still recovering from COVID-19. The team still has not named a Week 5 starter, but Stidham would be a smart bet. Brian Hoyer cost New England with dumbfound situational awareness, taking a sack in field goal range at the end of the first half, and turning the ball over. The Pats can overcome their unrest at quarterback with a strong running game. The explosiveness of Newton will be missed, but Damien Harris ran for 100 yards against the Chiefs, and James White and Rex Burkhead will also be prominently involved.
Brett Rypien is expected to make his second consecutive start this week for Denver. Rypien's first career start went pretty much as expected, throwing for 242 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 3 picks. Turnovers were inevitable, and they will certainly come into play against the Patriots. The Pats are second in the NFL with 8 takeaways, and even a Gilmore-less secondary will be ballhawking the secondary all afternoon with Rypien at QB. Melvin Gordon will need to run rampant as he did in East Rutherford last week, and lean on the tight ends on play-action. With Noah Fant unlikely to recover in time for Sunday, Tim Patrick and Nick Vannett will see their targets increase.
The Broncos just scraped by the Jets, and they face a daunting task with a trip to Foxboro. No matter who is starting for the Patriots this week, they are the better team, and the better coached group. The Patriots will move to 3-2.
Prediction: Broncos 9, Patriots 19
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| Vikings @ Seahawks |
The Seahawks owe their undefeated start to the MVP-level play of Russell Wilson. Wilson leads the league in touchdowns and ranks second in passing yards, and is winning games by himself for Seattle. Wilson is primed for another prolific box score against the Vikings, who rank 28th in yards allowed this season. D.K. Metcalf is emerging into an elite receiver, and currently leads the league in receiving yards. Greg Olsen is becoming more integrated into the passing game by the week, and Tyler Lockett remains one of the game's most dangerous threats out wide. The Seahawks would be wise to lean on the running game more, and lessen the burden on Wilson's arm. A balanced offensive attack will be key to a sustainable winning season. But it won't matter this week, the Vikings young, new-look defense will not be able to stop Russell Wilson.
In a matchup of winless teams, the Vikings managed to prevail and seal their first win of 2020 against the Texans. Forcing 3 sacks and a turnover last Sunday made the difference, and key game-changing plays like these will be key to turning the tide and stealing possessions against the Seahawks. Kirk Cousins will also need to keep up with Wilson, and go toe-to-toe. Adam Theilen caught 8 balls for 114 yards and a touchdown last week, and Justin Jefferson has 278 receiving yards in the last 2 games. The Vikings offense needs to keep up, especially if they trail early. Considering the Seahawks defense ranks bottom in yards allowed, they should be able to score in bunches.
These defenses combine to allow an average of over 900 yards and 59 points per game, so the box score should be filled to the brim. The Seahawks in primetime led by Russell Wilson are the favorites once again, and they should dispatch the Vikings again, for the third straight year.
Prediction: Vikings 34, Seahawks 37
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| Chargers @ Saints |
Watching Justin Herbert go toe-to-toe with Tom Brady, and matching him punch for punch over four quarters was very impressive. Watching the Saints, however, has been remarkably more cringeworthy this season.
Every week, Drew Brees plays more starkingly like a washed up 41 year old. Alvin Kamara has been New Orleans' first, second, and third option on offense because Brees' arm strength is extinguishing with every passing game. Michael Thomas is questionable to return this Sunday, which gives Brees his top weapon in the passing game back. Against a Chargers defense which just gave up 484 yards to the Bucs, also led by a quarterback at 40-plus years old, Brees and the Saints should be licking their lips.
The Chargers held their own against the Brady and the Bucs, but they fell just short once again. So far this season, the story for the Chargers has been "good, but not good enough." It won't help this week with Austin Ekeler out for at least 4 weeks, but Justin Jackson and Joshua Kelley will need to step up. The Chargers defense, which has gotten burned in the passing game the previous few games, needs to force a turnover or two as well, and steal possessions from Drew Brees. The Saints haven't looked themselves lately, and the Chargers have an opportunity to capitalize.
Whenever Brees suits up against his former team, he seems to play at a different level. The Saints should win this Monday night blockbuster, but it will be close.
Prediction: Chargers 24, Saints 30
Thank you for reading NFL Predix! Check out the weekly Predix every Thursday afternoon before Thursday Night Football, and be sure to let me know what you think of my predictions in the comments section below! You can also follow me for more football takes on Twitter @thesamdecoste. Thanks for reading!
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