2020 Week 1 Predix: Brady vs Brees

Photo courtesy of Associated Press/Texarkana Gazette

Written by Sam DeCoste

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining me in my fourth season of NFL Predix.

The last time I wrote a Predix page to you, the football world was anticipating the showdown between the Chiefs and 49ers in Super Bowl LIV, in the calm before the storm. Seven months later, the world as we know it has drastically changed, and football will not be the same as years past. Not seeing fans smashing tables in Buffalo, the Cheeseheads at Lambeau, or the 12s in Seattle will be a devastating blow for this football season. Nonetheless, as much as COVID-19 has changed the world as we know it, the NFL has returned at last.  

For returning readers, thank you for coming back and reading my picks once again. If you're new in town, welcome. The Predix is the flagship feature of the Franchise Quarterback Blog, where I will bring you in-depth analysis and predictions for every NFL game every week, adding up to all 256 regular season games, 11 playoff games, and a deep dive preview of Super Bowl LV in February. 

The 101st NFL season kicks off this Thursday night at Arrowhead Stadium with the Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs taking on the Houston Texans to begin their championship defense. Week 1 continues with Tom Brady's first ever game in Buccaneers red as Tampa goes up against the New Orleans Saints, and concludes with a double-header on Monday night featuring the Steelers taking on the Giants, and the Titans facing the Broncos at Mile High.

Without any further delay, it's time to dive right in. Football is back!

Here are my records from last season:

Regular season record: 159-96-1 (62.1% winning percentage)

Postseason record: 5-6 

Regular and postseason record: 164-102-1 (61.4% winning percentage)

Lock of the Week record: 11-6

All-time Predix record: 514-284-3 (64.2% winning percentage)

Texans @ Chiefs

The Chiefs kickstarted a postseason for the ages against the Texans eight months ago when they rallied from a 24-0 first quarter deficit to rally back for the win, 51-31. Ever since, the Chiefs won a Super Bowl, and have been riding high on momentum and a growing sense of belief that this team is capable of running up the trophy cabinet. Houston, meanwhile, shipped away one of the most talented players in the short history of their franchise.

This will be our first glimpse of Deshaun Watson throwing the football to receivers not named DeAndre Hopkins, but he will still have a loaded arsenal of weapons. Brandin Cooks and Randall Cobb add another dimension to this offense, essentially emulating the speed of KC's wideouts. Bill O'Brien will hope that with Cooks, Cobb, as well as Kenny Stills and a healthy Will Fuller can take the top off of opposing defenses all year long. They match up very well with the Chiefs secondary, and Watson can keep Houston in the game if they are able to sustain drives for all four quarters. But outscoring the Chiefs is a tall ask.

Nearly all of KC's skill position players are returning in 2020, with an improved version of 2019's offense. Star rookie running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire replaces Damien Williams, while Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Travis Kelce, and Mecole Hardman are all back. Pat Mahomes will have an abundance of weapons to carve the Texans secondary up once again. Not to mention the Chiefs defense can make plays now, and the duo of Frank Clark and Chris Jones can put the pressure on a very weak offensive line and pressure Deshaun Watson. Watson took 55 sacks in 2019, and the Chiefs can expose it once again as a weak point for Houston. It is the perfect opportunity for the Chiefs to start their title defense with a bang. 

It is going to be quite dystopian to see Arrowhead Stadium at such a reduced capacity, but the football on tap will remind us who is the team to beat. The Chiefs will start 2020 the same way they finished 2019, with a dominant offensive performance spearheaded by the great Pat Mahomes. Dub for KC.

Prediction: Texans 20, Chiefs 34

Browns @ Ravens

The Browns handed the Ravens their final loss of the regular season last year. Cleveland matches up well with Baltimore, and as we have seen, they have what it takes to outscore the ground-and-pound attack led by Lamar Jackson.

Baltimore is looking to get off to a fast start coming off a Divisional Round defeat to the Titans, and kick their game up a notch. Jackson and the Ravens will be hungry to assert their dominance in the division right off the bat, but they will need to expand their game beyond the ground. The Browns were able to put the Ravens in a big deficit in 2019, and force Jackson to use his arm rather than his legs. The Browns still have the weapons in place to copy and paste that game formula, and force Jackson out of his comfort zone.

New head coach Kevin Stefanski will be the X-factor for Cleveland's season. Cleveland knows that a bad coach can derail a star studded roster, as Freddie Kitchens did in 2019. If Stefanski can steer the ship, and find a way to get Odell Beckham in space with the football, and keep Nick Chubb's production on par with his 1,494 rushing yards last year, the Browns are dangerous. 

Both teams are considerably better now than they were a year ago, and this promises to be an exciting opener. In the end, Lamar Jackson has more plays in his locker than Baker Mayfield. 

Prediction: Browns 19, Ravens 29

Dolphins @ Patriots

Patriots fans have Ryan Fitzpatrick to thank for knocking New England down to the 3 seed at the end of the 2019 season. Now, Tom Brady is no longer under center for New England, and it is Cam Newton's time to shine.

Miami comes in with the same mindset as last season, that they can go toe-to-toe with the Patriots, with or without Tom Brady. Fitzpatrick will be starting as Tua Tagovailoa prepares and transitions to the pro game. For the short term outlook of the Dolphins offense, it is going to be difficult for Fitzpatrick to move the ball downfield like he did in Foxboro last time out. The Patriots traditionally start the season fast, especially on defense. Fitzpatrick also threw three interceptions in Miami's first game against New England last year, and very much looked like a washed up quarterback. Bill Belicheck will not have his defense on the ropes like they were at the end of 2019. They will be ready for Fitzmagic this time. 

In just 2 starts last season, Newton completed 56 percent of his passes for just 572 yards for zero touchdowns and one interception. It is also worth noting Newton was hurt when he was on the field, but that has been the case for a few years now. The jury's still out if Newton is the quarterback he used to be. The weapons certainly are not there for Newton to show he is as good as ever. Julian Edelman may be a reliable slot receiver, and N'Keal Harry can make some plays, but other than that, this offense is starved of explosiveness. Newton is not going to dump the ball off to James White and Rex Burkhead every play either. Newton gives a dimension of mobility which Brady never offered, but there will be growing pains as the year begins for the Patriots led by Cam Newton.

It will be fascinating to watch this new version of the Patriots and what they bring to the table that their 2019 outfit could not. On the day, they are still better than their South Florida rivals, and it will show in the box score. The Patriots will get off on the right foot to begin 2020. 

Prediction: Dolphins 13, Patriots 20

Packers @ Vikings

The Vikings got schooled by the Packers in a season sweep last season. But this matchup could be decisive in changing the tide in 2020. 

Last time the Packers beat the Vikings, it was the Aaron Jones game. Green Bay has the personnel to control the game throughout with a loaded backfield, including the aforementioned Jones, as well as rookie A.J. Dillon and Jamal Williams. Not to mention Aaron Rodgers will have a chip on his shoulder all season long, with Jordan Love lurking behind him all season long with his dreaded sideline clipboard. Rodgers is going to have a breakout season and remind everyone he is still Aaron Rodgers, and the Vikings are first in line on his revenge tour. Against a new look Vikings defense, Davante Adams could be in for a big day.

Minnesota will look a whole lot different this week with the departures of Stefon Diggs, Danielle Hunter, Xavier Rhodes, and more. Rookie wideout Justin Jefferson will be counted on to fill the hole left by Diggs, to complement the veteran Adam Theilen. Dalvin Cook has the ability to control the game by himself, after totalling 1,654 all-purpose yards in 2019. Mike Zimmer will send newly acquired Yannick Ngakoue to chase Rodgers all afternoon, but he's only been a Viking for about a week. 

It's going to hurt not having fans in U.S. Bank Stadium for the Vikings. Homefield advantage is often the deciding factor in this historic rivalry. That could come to bite the Vikings in the butt this time around. 

Prediction: Packers 22, Vikings 14

Seahawks @ Falcons

Leave it to the Seahawks to make an early season blockbuster trade. All-Pro safety Jamal Adams joins the Hawks after three years with the Jets, and gives Seattle some personality in the secondary. Their secondary will be tested all day by Matt Ryan and the Falcons high octane offense, new and improved with Hayden Hurst and Todd Gurley acquired in the offseason. The unguardable Julio Jones is as good as ever as is Calvin Ridley. Atlanta has the chance to carve up the Seahawks secondary, even with Jamal Adams. 

Russell Wilson and the Seahawks will have to keep up with the Falcons high scoring offense to stay in the game, because points will be scored in bunches. We know that Wilson is capable of Houdini acts on a weekly basis, but they just don't have the weapons to match with the Falcons. Cris Carson will be leaned on as long as the game is within striking distance, but it is more likely that Carroll will need to lean on Wilson's arm to pull off a Week 1 win. 

On paper, Atlanta is substantially more talented than Seattle. As long as Pete Carroll is coaching the Hawks, Seattle will fight to the end. But it would be a massive blow for the Falcons even this early in the season if they lose to this Seahawks squad.

Prediction: Seahawks 19, Falcons 24

Jets @ Bills

With Tom Brady out of the AFC East, Buffalo believes that it is their time to rise above and win their first division title since 1995. Given what the Bills have going on for them, you have to fancy their chances. With Stefon Diggs on the outside, Josh Allen finally has an elite deep threat to throw to. John Brown and Cole Beasley complement Diggs brilliantly, and the backfield of Zach Moss and Devin Singletary will be impossible to contain. The Jets have it all to do to contain Buffalo's new and improved offense.

It could be a long day at the office for Sam Darnold. Robby Anderson is gone, and the offense will be counting on second round pick Denzel Mims to find separation against one of the best secondaries in football. The likes of Jamison Crowder, Breshad Perriman, and Josh Doctson are going to be smothered by Tre'Davious White, Micah Hyde, and Jordan Poyer. 

The Bills have their sights set on the AFC East title this season, and the Jets will not put up a fight. This will be the most lopsided victory of Week 1.

Prediction: Jets 13, Bills 37

Raiders @ Panthers

The Panthers are a total mystery. Nobody really knows what to expect from them, under the leadership of rookie head coach Matt Rhule. No Luke Kuechly on defense is going to sting for a long time, and the absence of Greg Olsen's leadership will be exploited as the season progresses. But one given we already have is that Christian McCaffrey will have another excellent season, especially considering new starting quarterback Teddy Bridgewater loves to dump the ball short to his backs. Bridgewater also has D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson out wide to stretch the Raiders defense, but Bridgewater is agonizingly conservative, which could play into the hands of their opponents.

Meanwhile, the Las Vegas Raiders will hope to see a much more expanded offense in year three under Jon Gruden. The addition of track star Henry Ruggs in the draft should keep opposing defenses honest, and allow Derek Carr to be more aggressive with the football. Against a young and inexperienced defense, Carr has a chance to start his 2019 campaign off with a bang. Likewise, the Raiders defense has a chance to turn some heads, especially with the return of Jonathan Abrams in the secondary.

It is easy to forget that the Raiders flirted with postseason contention all year long, and have gotten better. The Panthers on the other hand, are swirling with more questions than answers at the moment. Call me crazy, but I have more faith in the away side.

Prediction: Raiders 20, Panthers 19

Bears @ Lions

This may not be the sexiest matchup of Week 1, but it may be the closest. This NFC North matchup out of the gate is a toss-up.

Believe it or not, Mitch Trubisky has been named the Week 1 starter for the Bears, not Nick Foles. For better or for worse, that is the situation. Trubisky can beat the defense using his legs and by finding Allen Robinson, Tarik Cohen, or throwing to one of Chicago's 800 tight ends. Unfortunately, the Bears do not match up well with what the Lions have in the revamped secondary, with Duron Harmon, Desmond Trufant and Jeff Okudah. 

For Detroit, there is no doubt who the man is, and that would be Matthew Stafford, who is returning after an injury-ravaged 2019. With Stafford back, there is no stopping the Lions from becoming one of the league's highest scoring offenses. Kenny Golladay is getting better and better, Marvin Jones is an underappreciated number two wideout, and Danny Amendola is a solid slot option. Evading the pressure of Khalil Mack and crew will be challenging for Stafford, but as we saw last season, a bad Bears offense can undermine their own defensive unit as the game wears on.

When the Bears and Lions square off, the game hardly disappoints. But in a matchup between Matt Stafford and Mitch Trubisky, I think the choice is obvious. Dub for Detroit.

Prediction: Bears 17, Lions 26

Colts @ Jaguars

In case you just awoke from your coma, I should inform you that Philip Rivers plays for the Colts now. That is going to take some getting used to. Philip Rivers may have had a mitigated preseason to get the reps in, but he will have all day to throw behind one of the best offensive lines in the game, against one of the worst defensive lines. He can stretch the Jaguars bottom tier secondary with T.Y. Hilton out wide, along with Michael Pittman and Paris Campbell. If Frank Reich decides to keep the game on the ground, they can chew the clock out with a three-headed backfield of Marlon Mack, Jonathan Taylor, and Nyheim Hines.

Jacksonville are throwing Gardner Minshew into a raging dumpster fire. Leonard Fournette is gone, the offensive line is one of the worst in football, and he will be playing from behind all year long. D.J. Chark is still a prominent receiver, after racking 1,008 yards in 2019, but the Colts will gameplan to smother him all day long, forcing Minshew to go through his progressions. This will allow DeForest Buckner and Darius Leonard to pounce all day. 

The Jaguars are far from a contender, and the Colts have their sights set on their first AFC South title since 2014. This game is unfolding only one way.

This is my Lock of the Week.

Prediction: Colts 26, Jaguars 9

Eagles @ Football Team

It has been less than an enlightening offseason for Washington. This franchise has seen everything from a head coaching change to sexual assault charges surrounding them, with the cherry on top being the decision to retire their former mascot. At last, Washington can pivot to football. They will be starting Dwayne Haskins at quarterback against the Eagles, and prove he has what it takes to play in the NFL after a slow start in his rookie season. Although the Washington front office did not do Haskins any favors with their offseason acquisitions. Antonio Gibson slots in as the starting running back, but other than him and the impressive Terry McLaurin, the offense is starved of weapons.

Whilst this is a division rivalry, the Eagles have dominated this series for years now. The Eagles are 6-0 against Washington going back to 2017, and Carson Wentz has carved them up in the last 6 meetings. Alshon Jeffrey and DeSean Jackson are finally healthy once again, which will only open up the Eagles offense, along with the first round speedster Jalen Reagor. Washington can potentially slow them down with their ferocious pass rush, spearheaded by second overall pick Chase Young, along with Jonathan Allen and Ryan Kerrigan. But Washington's secondary could quickly be exposed with the weapons on tap in Philly. 

The Eagles can control the game any way they want. They could ride with Miles Sanders, or air it out deep to DeSean Jackson. Whatever way you write it up, the Eagles come out on top.

Prediction: Eagles 30, Football Team 21

Chargers @ Bengals

For the first time since 2005, the Chargers will be fielding a starting quarterback not named Philip Rivers. The starting duty falls to Tyrod Taylor, the journeyman and former Bills starter. He will have plenty of weapons at his disposal, including Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Hunter Henry, and Austin Ekeler. Against a Bengals defense which ranked 29th in yards allowed and 20th against the pass, Taylor and the Chargers should have no problem outscoring a rookie quarterback.

The Bengals have handed the keys over to Joe Burrow, the number one overall draft pick, and it has electrified the city of Cincinnati before Burrow has taken an NFL snap. For a rookie, Burrow has been thrown into quite a promising situation, with AJ Green, Tyler Boyd, and Tee Higgins all on the outside, and Joe Mixon flanking him in the backfield. Burrow could have a Baker Mayfield-esque rookie campaign down the stretch, although there will be growing pains from out of the gate. The Chargers defense is going to come after him with blitz packages all afternoon, and Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram will notch a handful of sacks. Burrow has yet to experience that "welcome to the NFL" hit during a real game.

The Bengals could turn some eyes this season, but not on Sunday. The Chargers have one of the most talented rosters in football and will start the season on a winning note.

Prediction: Chargers 20, Bengals 17

Buccaneers @ Saints

For the first time in a long time, the Bucs are relevant. Tom Brady is in town, and he's ready to rock and roll with Bruce Arians and crew to snatch the NFC South crown away from New Orleans.

Admittedly, there are a lot of unknowns connected with the 2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. One thing we know for sure is Brady will not turn the ball over like his predecessor. Brady has never thrown more than 14 interceptions in a season, whereas Jameis Winston threw 30 picks in 2019 alone. Although it is still up in the air how Brady will play in a high vertical offense after playing in a screen friendly system for nearly 20 years. There are questions swirling around Tampa's defense, which does not get nearly enough love as it should. Subtracting seven pick sixes and dozens of turnovers forcing quick changes of possession and shorter fields will make the Bucs defense better, and they will even make plays of their own. 

On the other side, there is no mystery about what to expect from NOLA. Drew Brees and the Saints have their identity, and have improved dramatically with the additions of Emmanuel Sanders and Malcolm Jenkins. Sanders opens up the Saints offense and makes the depth chart behind Michael Thomas more dynamic. Thomas will probably have his ten catches, and Alvin Kamara will be the bellcow back, but Sanders may be the X-factor in stretching Tampa's secondary. Defensively, the Saints have the advantage over Tom Brady in the continuity department. Brady is adjusting to a new offensive philosophy and getting acquainted with his teammates, and they have the tall task of having to outscore the New Orleans Saints.

Fans and pundits are expecting a very high scoring game, as we should. Any time Brees and Brady face off, it makes for an entertaining prospect. But this season, continuity and experience will ultimately prevail. Brees and the Saints will take round 1.

Prediction: Buccaneers 24, Saints 34

Cardinals @ 49ers

The Cardinals had the NFC Champions on the ropes in each of their 2019 matchups. It took two game-sealing drives from Garappolo and the Niners offense in the fourth quarter to earn hard fought victories over their division rivals. Over the offseason, Arizona may have closed the gap.

Kyler Murray enters his sophomore season ready to take the next step as the Cardinals quarterback, and now he has one of the best receivers on the planet to throw to. DeAndre Hopkins is going to be a problem for opposing defenses, in a unit which already has the likes of Kenyan Drake in the backfield, young studs like Andy Isabella and Christian Kirk, and the ageless Larry Fitzgerald. The Cardinals match up perfectly with the 49ers defense, with mobility and versatility at the quarterback position and weapons on the perimeter to test the San Francisco secondary.

Like last season, Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers will lean on the ground game, led by diamond in the rough, Raheem "The Dream" Mostert. But the running game will only get you so far for so long. Garappolo down the stretch in the postseason scarcely used his arm, only attempting eight passes in the NFC Championship. If the Cardinals score early and put the 49ers behind, Garappolo will have to shoulder the responsibility. With their best receivers, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk battling soft tissue injuries, it could be a long afternoon with Patrick Peterson looming in the secondary.

The road back to the Super Bowl is daunting for the 49ers, who will have a target on their back all season in a loaded NFC. As Arizona sorts out its new look on offense, San Francisco will start off the season on the right foot. But underestimate the Cardinals at your own peril.

Prediction: Cardinals 19, 49ers 24

Cowboys @ Rams

At last, Los Angeles will be able to unveil their new palace of a football stadium, SoFi Stadium, on Sunday night. It is so unfortunate that fans will not be able to fill the seats up. 

The home team is hoping to start 2020 on a high note after a disastrous 2019. Head coach Sean McVay was exposed when he could not fix the Rams defense, or design a Plan B when the system failed midseason. It also didn't help that Todd Gurley, the engine that made the offense run, was not himself. Enter Cam Akers, a rookie running back from Florida State, who should see plenty of touches out of the gate and become LA's number one back. The Rams need to rediscover their ways of controlling the tempo, and it starts in the backfield. They can control the clock with Akers, and pick up third downs with Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods in the slot. 

It's not often that you see the highest ranked offense in yards accumulated improve the next offseason. In the case of the Dallas Cowboys, that is absolutely the case. Somehow, star receiver CeeDee Lamb fell into the Cowboys' laps in the draft, and he joins Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup in what might be the best wideout trident in football. They will open up the game for Dak Prescott and should have the Rams secondary reeling all night long. Oh and Ezekiel Elliott is there too. This offense should not miss a beat from last season. The leadership of Mike McCarthy will be a huge upgrade over Jason Garrett as well.

We should expect an entertaining high scoring affair, and the game may come down to who has the ball last. I have a feeling the Cowboys will have the ball last. Also the new Rams uniforms suck. 

Prediction: Cowboys 27, Rams 24

Steelers @ Giants

Giants fans won't be at MetLife Stadium to witness what could be an epic beatdown on Monday night. In what will be rookie head coach Joe Judge's first game for New York, Pittsburgh march in ready to start the season strong. 

Ben Roethlisberger is back at last after missing 14 games in 2019, and he will elevate the play of what was a lackluster Steelers offense all year. Juju Smith Schuster is a viable number one receiver candidate in fantasy once again, and players like Diontae Johnson and James Washington will see their catches go up as well. Against the Giants defense which ranked 26th in yards allowed last season, the Steelers could light up the scoreboard. 

On the other side of the football, Daniel Jones was the third most sacked quarterback in football, and the Steelers led the NFL in sacks. Jones will be running for his life all night long. Saquon Barkley will be New York's focal point of the game plan, but the Steelers can easily stuff him early on and force the Giants to win the game through the air. This plays right into the hands of the Steelers, who finished second in interceptions last season, who could have a field day against the turnover-heavy Daniel Jones.

The Steelers outmatch the G-Men in every facet. This game is ending in one way and one way only: a Steelers blowout win.

Prediction: Steelers 34, Giants 10

Titans @ Broncos

Derrick Henry carried Tennessee all the way to the AFC Championship in 2019, with wins over New England and Baltimore in the build up. Running it back in 2020 is going to be one daunting task for the Titans. 

The hopes and dreams of the 2020 Tennessee Titans rest on the same shoulders as they did in 2019, that would be Ryan Tannehill. The former Dolphins quarterback played out of his mind in 2019 with 22 touchdowns, 6 picks, and a quarterback rating of 117.5, which led the league and ranks fourth all time in a single season. But can he do it again? He'll still have A.J. Brown, Corey Davis, and Adam Humphries to throw to, and he will be protected by one of the elite offensive lines in football. But replicating a fairytale playoff run is going to be virtually impossible in 2020, and teams will be prepared to contain Derrick Henry this time around. It will help Tennessee's chances this week that Von Miller will not be lining up on the other side this week.

While Denver may not have Derrick Henry, they have Melvin Gordon and Philip Lindsay. The Broncos have the backs to control the tempo who complement their young quarterback, Drew Lock. It was a busy offseason for John Elway and the front office, and the additions of Jerry Jeudy, Jurrell Casey, and A.J. Bouye are game changers on both sides of the ball. In a make or break season for the Broncos, Lock is going to take them as far as he can. Lock is facing a challenging defense this Monday with a secondary led by Malcolm Butler and Kevin Byard, with playmaking ability stemming from the speed of Adoree Jackson and even the newly signed Jadaveon Clowney.

The Titans and Broncos are each playoff darkhorses in their own right, and this is game is a toss-up. It's always safer to pick the home team, and that's what I'm going to do. Drew Lock is ready to take the next step, and the Titans are destined for an emotional letdown after their deep playoff run in 2019.

Prediction: Titans 10, Broncos 21