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| Courtesy of The Athletic |
Written by Sam DeCoste
If I were to tell you at the beginning of last season that
- DeAndre Hopkins would be a Cardinal,
- Stefon Diggs would be a Bill,
- Todd Gurley would be a Falcon,
- Philip Rivers would be a Colts,
- Teddy Bridgewater would be a Panther,
- and Tom Brady would be a Buccaneer,
Now that the first wave of free agency has died down, we have a chance to breathe and break down the biggest transactions of the first week of NFL free agency and determine who are the winners and losers of the legal tampering period. Only time will tell who are the real winners and losers of these deals, but on paper, it was not difficult to determine who is trending upward and who is trending downward at this moment in time. Winners and losers include notable players, groups of skill positions, coaches, and teams.
Winners
Josh Allen
Bills general manager Brandon Beane identified the team's biggest weakness following a sour playoff exit in 2019 as a game-changing wideout for third year quarterback Josh Allen.
Beane responded by pulling the trigger on former Vikings wide receiver Stefon Diggs, and giving Allen the explosive playmaker on the outside the Bills were calling for. Diggs has racked over 1,000 yards each of the last two seasons, and is just two years removed from a season which he caught 102 balls for 1,021 yards and 10 touchdowns. Now he's in upstate New York, and will be catching passes from Josh Allen's cannon arm.
Diggs by himself is a prolific wide receiver, but inserted with the weapons Buffalo already has in place, the Bills are positioning themselves to be a top offense in 2020. John Brown and Cole Beasley had career seasons in 2019, running back Devin Singletary is a bowling ball on feet, and Dawson Knox is a promising young tight end.
The pieces are in place for Josh Allen to take another big step in year three and lead the Bills forward into a wide open championship window. If Allen is up for it, the Buffalo Bills are ready to rock and roll in the AFC in 2020.
Bills general manager Brandon Beane identified the team's biggest weakness following a sour playoff exit in 2019 as a game-changing wideout for third year quarterback Josh Allen.
Beane responded by pulling the trigger on former Vikings wide receiver Stefon Diggs, and giving Allen the explosive playmaker on the outside the Bills were calling for. Diggs has racked over 1,000 yards each of the last two seasons, and is just two years removed from a season which he caught 102 balls for 1,021 yards and 10 touchdowns. Now he's in upstate New York, and will be catching passes from Josh Allen's cannon arm.
Diggs by himself is a prolific wide receiver, but inserted with the weapons Buffalo already has in place, the Bills are positioning themselves to be a top offense in 2020. John Brown and Cole Beasley had career seasons in 2019, running back Devin Singletary is a bowling ball on feet, and Dawson Knox is a promising young tight end.
The pieces are in place for Josh Allen to take another big step in year three and lead the Bills forward into a wide open championship window. If Allen is up for it, the Buffalo Bills are ready to rock and roll in the AFC in 2020.
Kyler Murray
Somehow, DeAndre Hopkins is a Cardinal. Arizona pulled off one of the greatest coups this league has ever seen by acquiring the four time All-Pro from the Houston Texans.
Considering they only had to give up a second rounder, swap fourth rounders, and offload David Johnson to Houston, the value for the deal is sweet for Cardinals general manager Steve Keim, and riveting for second year quarterback Kyler Murray.
The reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year has all the tools around him to take a step forward in year two. Larry Fitzgerald is still hanging around at age 36, Christian Kirk and Andy Isabella are emerging threats in the passing game, Kenyan Drake exploded in the backfield at the tail end of 2019, and enter Hopkins. Bringing in a Hall of Fame caliber talent such as Hopkins will elevate the production of the offense tenfold, and will open lanes up for the rest of the offense because Hopkins draws so much attention from opposing defenses. Kyler Murray is destined to flourish in this rejuvenated Cardinals offense, and make massive strides in his second season in the NFL.
The Cardinals are fun again! What a world!
Somehow, DeAndre Hopkins is a Cardinal. Arizona pulled off one of the greatest coups this league has ever seen by acquiring the four time All-Pro from the Houston Texans.
Considering they only had to give up a second rounder, swap fourth rounders, and offload David Johnson to Houston, the value for the deal is sweet for Cardinals general manager Steve Keim, and riveting for second year quarterback Kyler Murray.
The reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year has all the tools around him to take a step forward in year two. Larry Fitzgerald is still hanging around at age 36, Christian Kirk and Andy Isabella are emerging threats in the passing game, Kenyan Drake exploded in the backfield at the tail end of 2019, and enter Hopkins. Bringing in a Hall of Fame caliber talent such as Hopkins will elevate the production of the offense tenfold, and will open lanes up for the rest of the offense because Hopkins draws so much attention from opposing defenses. Kyler Murray is destined to flourish in this rejuvenated Cardinals offense, and make massive strides in his second season in the NFL.
The Cardinals are fun again! What a world!
Indianapolis Colts
Colts general manager Chris Ballard does not get enough praise for how he has shape-shifted the Colts roster back into a contender. Ballard addressed the roster's two most blatant weaknesses with immediate upgrades that puts the Colts back into win-now mode.
Acquiring DeForest Buckner from the NFC Champion San Francisco 49ers and extending him to a long-term deal solidifies the Colts up front. It fills Indy's biggest need with a prominent defensive lineman, and fortifies the Colts identity on both sides of the ball, to win in the trenches. Paired with Justin Houston on the defensive line, and alongside Darius Leonard in the linebacking core, the Colts front seven will be a different breed this year.
At the game's most important position, the Colts inked 38 year old quarterback Philip Rivers to a one year deal worth $25 million. Rivers struggled with the Chargers last season and tossed 20 interceptions, but his poor play can be accredited to playing behind maybe the worst offensive line in football, and trying to lob throws out before taking sacks. Now Rivers is taking snaps behind one of the best offensive lines in the league, led by Ryan Kelly, Anthony Castanzo and Quenton Nelson. This may be one of the best offensive lines Rivers will ever play for, and will be the key to extending Rivers' career in a new setting.
The Colts are not far away from getting back to their strong finish in 2018. This team has the pieces to return to prominence, and if Rivers proves to be an upgrade at the quarterback position, nobody in the AFC South can stop the Colts from winning their first division crown since 2014.
New Orleans Saints
Three straight NFC South titles for the Saints have resulted in three straight devastating playoff exits for WhoDat Nation. The Saints have been banging on the Super Bowl's door for years and they have burned out at the moment of truth each time. But this offseason could turn out to be a defining one in New Orleans history with the additions the team have made.
First on the to-do list was to resign quarterback Drew Brees. Done. Next.
The Saints signed veteran wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders to a two year deal. One of New Orleans' gaping weaknesses was the wide receiver depth behind Michael Thomas. Behind Thomas' record 149 receptions, Ted Ginn had the most receptions by a wideout for the Saints in 2019, at 30. The Saints needed to open up the offense by adding another receiver capable of taking the pressure off Thomas, and Sanders is certainly capable of that. Not to mention he is a former Super Bowl champion with the Broncos, and he is a great veteran leader presence for the locker room.
New Orleans also resigned guard Andrus Peat, defensive end Noah Spence, and cornerback Janoris Jenkins, who will continue to be key contributors right away.
But the most under appreciated signing of the offseason has to Malcolm Jenkins returning to New Orleans after six seasons in Philadelphia. In his six seasons as an Eagle, Jenkins played every single game, and played on 98.5% of the snaps in that stretch. Jenkins is a prolific defensive back and leader, and he will tremendously elevate the play of the secondary as a unit. Saints head coach Sean Payton admitted he never should have let Jenkins leave, but now he is back. And with Tom Brady in the division this year, the Saints defense needs to be locked in with everyone on the same page. With Jenkins back in the building, the defense can be relied on.
Bringing back Malcolm Jenkins and signing Emmanuel Sanders will go a long way to bring the Saints back to the pedestal. The clock is ticking for the Saints championship window, but this version of New Orleans may be the best roster they've had since 2009. Do you recall how the Saints finished the 2009 season?
Colts general manager Chris Ballard does not get enough praise for how he has shape-shifted the Colts roster back into a contender. Ballard addressed the roster's two most blatant weaknesses with immediate upgrades that puts the Colts back into win-now mode.
Acquiring DeForest Buckner from the NFC Champion San Francisco 49ers and extending him to a long-term deal solidifies the Colts up front. It fills Indy's biggest need with a prominent defensive lineman, and fortifies the Colts identity on both sides of the ball, to win in the trenches. Paired with Justin Houston on the defensive line, and alongside Darius Leonard in the linebacking core, the Colts front seven will be a different breed this year.
At the game's most important position, the Colts inked 38 year old quarterback Philip Rivers to a one year deal worth $25 million. Rivers struggled with the Chargers last season and tossed 20 interceptions, but his poor play can be accredited to playing behind maybe the worst offensive line in football, and trying to lob throws out before taking sacks. Now Rivers is taking snaps behind one of the best offensive lines in the league, led by Ryan Kelly, Anthony Castanzo and Quenton Nelson. This may be one of the best offensive lines Rivers will ever play for, and will be the key to extending Rivers' career in a new setting.
The Colts are not far away from getting back to their strong finish in 2018. This team has the pieces to return to prominence, and if Rivers proves to be an upgrade at the quarterback position, nobody in the AFC South can stop the Colts from winning their first division crown since 2014.
New Orleans Saints
Three straight NFC South titles for the Saints have resulted in three straight devastating playoff exits for WhoDat Nation. The Saints have been banging on the Super Bowl's door for years and they have burned out at the moment of truth each time. But this offseason could turn out to be a defining one in New Orleans history with the additions the team have made.
First on the to-do list was to resign quarterback Drew Brees. Done. Next.
The Saints signed veteran wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders to a two year deal. One of New Orleans' gaping weaknesses was the wide receiver depth behind Michael Thomas. Behind Thomas' record 149 receptions, Ted Ginn had the most receptions by a wideout for the Saints in 2019, at 30. The Saints needed to open up the offense by adding another receiver capable of taking the pressure off Thomas, and Sanders is certainly capable of that. Not to mention he is a former Super Bowl champion with the Broncos, and he is a great veteran leader presence for the locker room.
New Orleans also resigned guard Andrus Peat, defensive end Noah Spence, and cornerback Janoris Jenkins, who will continue to be key contributors right away.
But the most under appreciated signing of the offseason has to Malcolm Jenkins returning to New Orleans after six seasons in Philadelphia. In his six seasons as an Eagle, Jenkins played every single game, and played on 98.5% of the snaps in that stretch. Jenkins is a prolific defensive back and leader, and he will tremendously elevate the play of the secondary as a unit. Saints head coach Sean Payton admitted he never should have let Jenkins leave, but now he is back. And with Tom Brady in the division this year, the Saints defense needs to be locked in with everyone on the same page. With Jenkins back in the building, the defense can be relied on.
Bringing back Malcolm Jenkins and signing Emmanuel Sanders will go a long way to bring the Saints back to the pedestal. The clock is ticking for the Saints championship window, but this version of New Orleans may be the best roster they've had since 2009. Do you recall how the Saints finished the 2009 season?
Losers
Deshaun Watson
While the NFL is not famous for NBA-esque power duos, the Houston Texans had one of the best quarterback to receiver combinations in the league for the past three seasons. But no longer, and we can all thank Texans head coach and general manager Bill O'Brien, aka the second coming of Chip Kelly, for it.
Trading star wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins and a fourth round pick away to the Arizona Cardinals for David Johnson, a second round pick and fourth round pick will go down as an all time blunder. All that's missing from this trade is a waffle iron!
Deshaun Watson entering his fourth NFL season is ready to take on the prime of his career, hungry for a championship, will now have to go on without his number one weapon. O'Brien, a supposed quarterback whisper from his time in New England, has been the Texans head coach since 2014, and failed to develop a single quarterback in Houston in his coaching career. The Texans ran through Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brian Hoyer, and Brock Osweiler among others before Watson fell into his lap in the 2017 draft. But instead of building around Watson, O'Brien took away his best receiver and one of his best friends. And for what?
The Houston Texans were 24-0 ahead on the Super Bowl champions last postseason, and had the makings of a championship contending roster. But now DeAndre Hopkins is gone, and the Texans have taken a massive step back as a contender because of it.
How Watson can move forward in his relationship with O'Brien after such an audacious, indefensible trade is beyond anyone's knowledge. But Watson's responsibility as the face of the Texans franchise to deliver a championship to Houston just became Mission Impossible.
While the NFL is not famous for NBA-esque power duos, the Houston Texans had one of the best quarterback to receiver combinations in the league for the past three seasons. But no longer, and we can all thank Texans head coach and general manager Bill O'Brien, aka the second coming of Chip Kelly, for it.
Trading star wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins and a fourth round pick away to the Arizona Cardinals for David Johnson, a second round pick and fourth round pick will go down as an all time blunder. All that's missing from this trade is a waffle iron!
Deshaun Watson entering his fourth NFL season is ready to take on the prime of his career, hungry for a championship, will now have to go on without his number one weapon. O'Brien, a supposed quarterback whisper from his time in New England, has been the Texans head coach since 2014, and failed to develop a single quarterback in Houston in his coaching career. The Texans ran through Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brian Hoyer, and Brock Osweiler among others before Watson fell into his lap in the 2017 draft. But instead of building around Watson, O'Brien took away his best receiver and one of his best friends. And for what?
The Houston Texans were 24-0 ahead on the Super Bowl champions last postseason, and had the makings of a championship contending roster. But now DeAndre Hopkins is gone, and the Texans have taken a massive step back as a contender because of it.
How Watson can move forward in his relationship with O'Brien after such an audacious, indefensible trade is beyond anyone's knowledge. But Watson's responsibility as the face of the Texans franchise to deliver a championship to Houston just became Mission Impossible.
Running Backs
It was just two offseasons ago when Todd Gurley signed a contract extension with the Los Angeles Rams to a record breaking contract for a running back. On Thursday, the Rams released Gurley. A former NFL Offensive Player of the Year and engine of the Rams offense, unattached, free to negotiate with any NFL team. He landed on his feet very quickly, signing a one year deal with the Atlanta Falcons worth $6 million. Even a player of Gurley's caliber, who has racked nearly 7,500 yards from scrimmage and scored 70 touchdowns since his rookie year in 2015 was forced to settle for a one year "prove it" deal worth half as much money as what David Johnson will make in 2020.
Gurley was not the only marquee running back to hit the open market this offseason, expecting larger sums than the ones they eventually got. Melvin Gordon, the workhorse of the Los Angeles Chargers seeking big bucks, was allowed to hit the open market. Gordon held out at the beginning of the 2019 season looking to break the bank as a running back, but the Chargers did not budge. Even after the season, the Chargers and Gordon were far apart in negotiations, and the team let him walk. Gordon signed with the Denver Broncos on a two year deal worth $16 million, a deal which leaves more to be desired from the running back market, but the best deal Gordon could find.
But it could be worse for Gurley and Gordon. The NFL's leading rusher from last season was given the franchise tag. That's right, Ryan Tannehill signed an extension worth $118 million over the next four years, but the Titans could not even extend Henry's contract beyond the 2020 season, despite rushing for 446 yards in three playoff games last season. Not to mention plenty of high profile backs are still free agents, including Devonta Freeman, LeSean McCoy, and Lamar Miller among the best backs left unattached.
Last offseason set the tone for a weak running back market when Le'Veon Bell was forced to settle for $13 million per year with the Jets, but this offseason marks a huge step backwards for the running back market. Of the notable running backs playing for a new team next season, Melvin Gordon is making the most money of all of them, at $8 million per season. This has been a week to forget for running backs everywhere.
It was just two offseasons ago when Todd Gurley signed a contract extension with the Los Angeles Rams to a record breaking contract for a running back. On Thursday, the Rams released Gurley. A former NFL Offensive Player of the Year and engine of the Rams offense, unattached, free to negotiate with any NFL team. He landed on his feet very quickly, signing a one year deal with the Atlanta Falcons worth $6 million. Even a player of Gurley's caliber, who has racked nearly 7,500 yards from scrimmage and scored 70 touchdowns since his rookie year in 2015 was forced to settle for a one year "prove it" deal worth half as much money as what David Johnson will make in 2020.
Gurley was not the only marquee running back to hit the open market this offseason, expecting larger sums than the ones they eventually got. Melvin Gordon, the workhorse of the Los Angeles Chargers seeking big bucks, was allowed to hit the open market. Gordon held out at the beginning of the 2019 season looking to break the bank as a running back, but the Chargers did not budge. Even after the season, the Chargers and Gordon were far apart in negotiations, and the team let him walk. Gordon signed with the Denver Broncos on a two year deal worth $16 million, a deal which leaves more to be desired from the running back market, but the best deal Gordon could find.
But it could be worse for Gurley and Gordon. The NFL's leading rusher from last season was given the franchise tag. That's right, Ryan Tannehill signed an extension worth $118 million over the next four years, but the Titans could not even extend Henry's contract beyond the 2020 season, despite rushing for 446 yards in three playoff games last season. Not to mention plenty of high profile backs are still free agents, including Devonta Freeman, LeSean McCoy, and Lamar Miller among the best backs left unattached.
Last offseason set the tone for a weak running back market when Le'Veon Bell was forced to settle for $13 million per year with the Jets, but this offseason marks a huge step backwards for the running back market. Of the notable running backs playing for a new team next season, Melvin Gordon is making the most money of all of them, at $8 million per season. This has been a week to forget for running backs everywhere.
New England Patriots
The New England Patriots are not special anymore. The dynasty has plummeted down to earth with the rest of the 31 NFL teams.
You may have heard that Tom Brady is out of New England. For the first time since 2001, the Patriots will enter Week 1 with a starting quarterback not named Tom Brady.
For the time being, it will be the Jarrett Stidham show in Foxboro, assuming he beats out Brian Hoyer and Cody Kessler in an inevitably enthralling quarterback competition. Reports out of New England say Stidham has made encouraging strides in the Patriots system over last season, but be honest with yourselves, Patriots fans. If Tom Brady could not produce in an offense starved of weapons, Stidham is in for an epic learning curve. Stidham could develop into an above average starter, but with Julian Edelman and Mohamed Sanu as the primary weapons, his development will be slow and frustrating. Besides, replacing one of the all time greats in any sport is much easier said than done.
Brady is not the only notable departure on the Patriots roster this offseason. Defensive contributors such as Kyle Van Noy, Jamie Collins, Elandon Roberts, and Duran Harmon will all be playing in different uniforms next season, which substantially weakens what was the stingiest defense in the AFC last season.
Winning without Tom Brady in the short term future is going to be a mighty challenge for Bill Belichick to conquer, and now, we will see what Belicheck is made of. A man who many regard the greatest coach of all time will be coaching without Tom Brady for the first time in a long time. His career record before inheriting Tom Brady with Cleveland and New England is 42-58. Belichick has won six rings since then, but Patriots fans will quickly turn on him once the quarterback play regresses in 2020.
The New England Patriots are not special anymore. The dynasty has plummeted down to earth with the rest of the 31 NFL teams.
You may have heard that Tom Brady is out of New England. For the first time since 2001, the Patriots will enter Week 1 with a starting quarterback not named Tom Brady.
For the time being, it will be the Jarrett Stidham show in Foxboro, assuming he beats out Brian Hoyer and Cody Kessler in an inevitably enthralling quarterback competition. Reports out of New England say Stidham has made encouraging strides in the Patriots system over last season, but be honest with yourselves, Patriots fans. If Tom Brady could not produce in an offense starved of weapons, Stidham is in for an epic learning curve. Stidham could develop into an above average starter, but with Julian Edelman and Mohamed Sanu as the primary weapons, his development will be slow and frustrating. Besides, replacing one of the all time greats in any sport is much easier said than done.
Brady is not the only notable departure on the Patriots roster this offseason. Defensive contributors such as Kyle Van Noy, Jamie Collins, Elandon Roberts, and Duran Harmon will all be playing in different uniforms next season, which substantially weakens what was the stingiest defense in the AFC last season.
Winning without Tom Brady in the short term future is going to be a mighty challenge for Bill Belichick to conquer, and now, we will see what Belicheck is made of. A man who many regard the greatest coach of all time will be coaching without Tom Brady for the first time in a long time. His career record before inheriting Tom Brady with Cleveland and New England is 42-58. Belichick has won six rings since then, but Patriots fans will quickly turn on him once the quarterback play regresses in 2020.
Los Angeles Rams
Two years ago, the Rams sold the farm to build a championship roster ready to win, and embodied the definition of the "Super Bowl or Bust" approach. Sadly, the Rams are an example of what the bust outcome looks like. A cash-starved franchise with limited draft picks which can do nothing but watch their big name acquisitions head out the door.
The Rams have already lost six defensive starters from last season, including Clay Matthews, Nickel Robey-Coleman, Dante Fowler, Corey Littleton, Michael Brockers, and Eric Weddle. Signing A'Shawn Robinson and Leonard Floyd to team-friendly deals will not fill these voids left in the defensive lineup, but that's as much as the Rams can afford. Parting ways with Todd Gurley also stings the checkbook, costing the Rams $20.2 million in dead money for a player no longer on their roster.
The team is very top-heavy, with big name stars like Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey, but the Rams do not own a first round pick until 2022, Jared Goff is not living up to his four year, $134 million extension, and the roster is filled with holes on the defensive side of the ball. A rebuild could be looming in LA if the Rams don't make it back to the playoffs, with the cap purgatory they are trapped in, and the weaknesses which have now piled up for this roster.
Going into a new stadium, the Rams do not have the looks of a team worth what will be a hefty price of admission in 2020. Plus their new logo sucks.
Sam DeCoste
WEBN-TV Co-Sports Director
Good Morning Emerson Sports Correspondent
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