2019 Week 16 Predix

Written by Sam DeCoste

It's the most wonderful time of the year in the holiday season, but it is also one of the more bittersweet moments of the NFL season. Everyone only has two more games to go, and many teams face playoff elimination if they haven't already been eliminated. But this week features a handful of divisional matchups with first place on the line, which could turn the playoff picture completely upside down. It begins on Saturday, with a high stakes battle between the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots in Foxboro. It continues into Sunday, in a showdown between the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles where the NFC East is on the line, and ends on Monday night, when the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings battle for the NFC North crown. We may have never seen so many high stakes matchups so late in the season in the same week, so we could be in for a highly entertaining weekend!

I always strive for improvement, but last week, I stayed the same. I have gone 10-6 the previous two weeks, virtually leaving my regular season accuracy at the same mark as before. But with two weeks to go, I could vastly increase my accuracy and finish strong. So without any further delay, let's get right into it! Happy holidays, everyone!

Here are my records over this season:
My record last week: 10-6
Regular season record: 137-86-1
Lock of the Week record: 10-5

HOU @ TB

The Texans are coming off a decisive victory over the Titans in Nashville which could seal the AFC South title for Houston. But as the Texans have shown us all season long, they are wildly inconsistent. They followed an impressive win over the Patriots with a blowout loss at home to Drew Lock's Broncos just two weeks ago, so the Texans are unpredictable week to week. Entering a contest against a high octane offense like the Bucs, the Texans 28th ranked secondary will put this squad on upset alert this Saturday. 

If the Bucs were able to rattle a few more wins in October, they could have been a serious playoff contender right now, as opposed to extending their playoff drought to twelve consecutive seasons. Their offense ranks third in total offense and first in passing, and Jameis Winston is just 427 yards away from reaching 5,000 on the season, a feat which has been accomplished by just seven quarterbacks in NFL history. The problem is Winston is negating his prolific passing season with his league high turnovers. Winston has 24 picks on the season, and has shot his team in the foot too many times this season to help them compete. However, Winston has 8 touchdown passes in his last two games, and the Bucs have won four straight. They are coming into this showdown with Houston with momentum, and have a serious chance of causing an upset.

Tampa Bay's strengths match up perfectly with Houston's weaknesses, specifically in the air. But as I have insisted for months, I will continue to pick against the Bucs as long as Winston is under center, because the turnovers will break the team's back. The Texans will win and should clinch the division title by Sunday night.

Prediction: HOU 24, TB 23

BUF @ NE

It's Week 16, and the Bills are not going away. The Patriots have yet to clinch the AFC East title, and only need one more win to earn it, but the Bills have made them work for it all season long. 

Entering this week, the Patriots bounced back from their two game skid with a dominant 34-13 win, intercepting Andy Dalton 4 times and scoring 27 unanswered points to run away in the second half. But Tom Brady and the offense once again failed to control the game, as Brady completed just 15 passes for 128 yards and 2 touchdowns, which was enough to defeat the 29th ranked defense in the Bengals, but will not cut it against the third ranked defense in the Bills on Saturday. The last time Tom Brady lined up versus the Bills defense, he played his worst game of the season by a landslide, throwing for 150 yards and an interception, posting a QBR of 10. The Patriots will hope their running game led by Sony Michel and James White can stampede the Bills defense en route to a victory, because the Bills defense has a history of shutting down Tom Brady under Sean McDermott.

Transitioning to the Bills offense, it is time for Josh Allen to step up versus the Patriots defense. Allen's worst game of his career came in Week 4 against the Pats, when he threw 3 interceptions before getting knocked out in the fourth quarter with a concussion. Allen cannot try to win the game all by himself, because there are weapons who have blossomed in the offense, like John Brown, a 1,000 receiver on the season, as well as the promising rookie, Devin Singletary in the backfield. The key number in this contest is 20. The Bills are 7-0 when they score 20 points this season, whereas the Patriots are 0-3 when they have allowed more than 20 points. If the Bills offense can force the Pats to play catch up all night, they will put their defense in a position to force turnovers and shut down Tom Brady.

It has been a long time since we have seen an AFC East clash with such high playoff implications this late in the season, and it should live up to the hype. While Buffalo may be pegged as a favorite this week, New England knows how to win when it matters. The Patriots know how to win when their back is against the wall, and in Foxboro, they will find a way to get past the Bills. Josh Allen will turn the ball over one too many times and cost the Bills when it's all said and done.

Prediction: BUF 13, NE 17

LAR @ SF

The 49ers' hopes for the number one seed took a massive blow on Sunday with their shocking home loss to the Falcons. They need to win out the rest of the way against two high octane offenses to win the division and come away with the number one seed, otherwise they will be on the road all postseason long. For the 49ers to sweep the Rams, they need to essentially copy and paste what they did to them back in Week 6. Stop the run, shut down the receivers, and pressure Jared Goff. The 49ers defense is good enough to win the game by itself, and they have proven they can neutralize the Rams completely. On the other side of the ball, George Kittle can take over any game at the tight end position, and the running backs can chew the clock up and carry them to a win as well.

Over in LA, the Rams laid another egg in Dallas last week, and Sean McVay was somehow out-coached in a game where Jason Garrett lined up on the other sideline. The Rams already have more losses in McVay's first two seasons as head coach, and need to win out to even have hopes of returning to the playoffs. Todd Gurley has been invisible, Brandin Cooks has vanished, and Jared Goff is turning the ball over far more than the Rams can afford him too. The Rams offense needs to wake up in San Francisco to stand a chance, because the 49ers defense held them to 48 passing yards ad 7 points in their first matchup. If the Rams play like they did in Dallas last week, the Rams will be eliminated in a hurry.

The Rams are coming into Saturday desperate, which is not always the strongest formula for success. While the 49ers are coming off a devastating last minute loss to the Falcons, they have the higher likelihood of bouncing back, because they have not lost their identity. Their defense is still the best in the NFC, and will force Jared Goff into game-deciding turnovers to hand the 49ers the victory. 

Prediction: LAR 17, SF 26

NO @ TEN

Monday night was a night to celebrate Drew Brees. The Saints quarterback now leads NFL history in passing touchdowns with 541 all time, and also completed 96% of his passes over 30 attempts against the Colts. It was a magical night for Brees and the Saints. The problem is that they have a short week to prepare for a very physical football team and they are vulnerable to a huge emotional letdown. The NFL's second leading rusher in Derrick Henry is squaring up against the Saints front seven, and the Saints passing attack will need to fare with a solid secondary featuring Malcolm Butler and Kevin Byard. 

While the Saints are riding high, the Titans do not control their own destiny to make it into the postseason for the second time in three years. They never controlled the game against Houston a week ago, and two formidable games against the Saints and the Texans again will make it very difficult for them to sneak in. While the loss stings, they need to play like they did to win five of six games with Ryan Tannehill at QB. Run the ball 25 times with Henry, and throw the ball to AJ Brown, while the defense attacks opposing quarterbacks. The health of Derrick Henry is potentially threatening, and if he cannot go, it puts more on Tannehill's shoulders, and he will need to carry the load all by himself. 

Both teams need to win this game, which should make for an exciting four quarter contest. But the Saints are the better team, and do not usually drop games like these. With Derrick Henry's status up in the air, and the play of Drew Brees of late, the Saints should be favorites. 

Prediction: NO 23, TEN 20

BAL @ CLE

The Ravens have not lost since September 29, at home against the Cleveland Browns. Ever since, the Ravens have won ten straight, and have flipped the script on their season. Last time we saw the Ravens in action, quarterback Lamar Jackson threw for 5 touchdowns in a dominant 42-21 win over the Jets. Jackson is cementing his name as the runaway favorite for the MVP award this year, and he can take another huge step in winning MVP if he wins this game, and clinch home field advantage for the Ravens. 

While Cleveland's season has washed up, they proved that they can beat the Ravens, and it would not be surprising to see them pull off another impressive performance against their divisional foes. What we saw from the Browns in Week 4 in Baltimore was what the league expected them to play like for most of the season. Mayfield threw for 342 yards, Nick Chubb ran for 3 touchdowns, and Jarvis Landry caught 8 passes for 167 yards. The defense also forced two interceptions of Lamar Jackson, and stampeded to a dominant 40-25 win. The Browns can do it again, but the ever-growing dysfunction and turbulence inside the Browns organization is forcing an epic collapse. 

Truth be told, Lamar Jackson is struggling to beat teams through the air, and it was becoming an underlying problem for the Ravens before their win over the Jets. The Browns can rattle Jackson and if the offense can produce chunk plays like they did last time out, they will push the Ravens for four quarters. But the Ravens are better coached, and they are on fire. The Browns will not be able to stop this runaway freight train.

Prediction: BAL 28, CLE 20

PIT @ NYJ

For the first time since his departure, Le'Veon Bell will square off against the Pittsburgh Steelers in gang green. He will be desperate to beat the team and the organization which didn't want to pay Bell what he thought he was worth. The problem is Bell has been completely average as a Jet. In 14 games, Bell has just 676 rushing yards and 3 scores on the ground, far below what Jets fans were expecting when their team signed him. But this game is bigger than Le'Veon Bell. Sam Darnold has grown as a quarterback since Halloween, and has established a nice chemistry with Jamison Crowder. The passing game can match up with the Steelers fourth ranked defense, and can move the ball against a lockdown unit.

Transitioning to the Steelers, their loss to the Bills is not a huge setback, because they are still a game ahead of the Titans in the sixth spot. But the offense is a big time concern. Devlin "Duck" Hodges' honeymoon ended in style against the Bills on Sunday night, when he tossed four picks. James Conner also ran the ball just 8 times in a game where he averaged 5.2 yards per carry, and a game in which a combined 5 dressed running backs got 13 total carries. The Steelers offensive play calling let them down, and the play from the quarterback will prove to be their downfall whether or not they make the playoffs. 

The Steelers are rightly favorites, but the Bills game provided a blueprint for how to stop the Steelers on both sides of the ball. I think the Jets can produce enough big plays on offense to pull out an upset victory. 

Prediction: PIT 10, NYJ 21

JAX @ ATL

The Falcons played like the team they should have played like all season in their stunning last second win over the 49ers. Matt Ryan delivered with another fourth quarter comeback, and Julio Jones played his best game of the season by a landslide, catching 13 balls for 134 yards and 2 touchdowns. When they are in the mood, the Falcons offense is unstoppable. They match up well with a Jags defense which ranks 24th in total defense and has fallen to pieces since Jalen Ramsey's trade to the Rams.

Meanwhile, the Jags are coming off an impressive victory of their own, an upset win over the Raiders in the final NFL game in Oakland. Gardner Minshew led the Jags to a fourth quarter comeback of his own and showed the Jags front office that he is the man to lead the franchise, not Nick Foles. Minshew has been incredibly fun to watch this season and he will continue to let it rip in the final two games while he still has the opportunity. Leonard Fournette is bound for a great game on the ground and DJ Chark will finish his prolific receiving season strong as well.

Interestingly enough, the Falcons have never defeated an AFC opponent in their new stadium since it opened in 2017. This poses the greatest opportunity for the Falcons to amend that, and beat a lackluster Jags team at home to end their home slate strong. The Falcons will prevail and continue to show their fans what could have been if they had played like this all season long. 

Prediction: JAX 13, ATL 27

CAR @ IND

The Kyle Allen bandwagon has crashed to a screeching halt, and it is time for the rookie, Will Grier, to make his NFL debut. The former third round pick out of West Virginia will take his first NFL snap in Indianapolis this Sunday, and it will be an opportunity for the Panthers to evaluate their QB room before making any decision regarding the future of Cam Newton. At this point, the Panthers have nothing to lose, and Grier has a chance to showcase his talent to his teammates, his coaches, and the league. 

Over in Indy, the Colts played the unlucky role of granting Drew Brees one of the greatest nights in his career. They were annihilated in New Orleans, and their season officially ended with elimination from playoff contention. The 2019 Colts took a similar spiral as the 2018 Panthers, who suffered an all time skid in the second half of the season to take them out of playoff contention after starting the season incredibly strong. For Jacoby Brissett, it's time for him to finish strong, and for the Colts to give their home fans one last win to cap off a rather disappointing season.

This game had much larger playoff implications back in October, but it now features two eliminated teams with nothing to play for. While Wil Grier has something to play for in his first career game, the Colts are a far superior team at home and they have enough to walk out with. the victory.

Prediction: CAR 16, IND 19

NYG @ WSH

Tank Bowl V. Giants Redskins. A heavyweight showdown for the ages.

In one corner, we have the New York Giants, who await the return of Daniel Jones from injury. Eli Manning came back for two games, and earned his emotional farewell at home against the Dolphins, and may have played his final home game at MetLife Stadium. But now it is time to face their divisional foes in the Redskins, who have the same record as the G-Men through 14 games, at 3-11. For the talent gap between these two squads, especially on the offensive side of the ball, there is no excuse for the Giants to have nosedived this badly. But Danny Dimes can come back into the lineup this Sunday and revitalize the offense if Saquon Barkley can run the ball well, and he can find Evan Engram, Golden Tate, Sterling Shepard, and Darius Slayton. There is talent on the Giants offense, and they should be able to make plays against this woeful Redskins defense.

What the Redskins have going for them is the emerging play of Dwayne Haskins, and the play from 67 year old running back Adrian Peterson. I'm kidding of course, Peterson is not quite that old. But his performance on the ground this season has been just as impressive, running for 784 yards, with 4 touchdowns. Peterson is proving that age is just a number, and is running through defenders with one of the league's worst offensive lines and offensive coaching staffs. The Redskins can run him 30 times and have a chance to win, because the Giants are allowing 115 rushing yards per game this season.

Both teams will be happy to see the season end in two weeks, and will be excited to turn the page on 2019. But both of these squads would love to beat their divisional rivals before wrapping up the season. The Giants are the more talented team, and are the favorites to win their second straight. 

Prediction: NYG 20, WSH 17

CIN @ MIA

Tank Bowl VI, or V, depending on how you look at it. But two of the worst teams in the AFC square off in what could be a pivotal game for the NFL Draft. 

With a loss, the Bengals will clinch the number one overall pick in April's draft, and defeat beckons with their trip to Miami. The Bengals were destroyed by the Patriots, and Andy Dalton showed that his best days are behind him with a 4 interception performance. Joe Mixon ran the ball very efficiently, for 136 yards, but the offense was shut out for nearly three quarters on Sunday after leading the Patriots in the first quarter. The Bengals can move the ball, and they have weapons on that side of the ball, but they cannot finish drives in the red zone, and they turn the ball over too much to give themselves a chance to win.

The Dolphins would be smart to play Josh Rosen on Sunday, but dolphins are naturally unintelligent because they are sea mammals, so that is not going to happen. Nonetheless, Ryan Fitzpatrick has given the franchise the best chance to win, and he was solid against the Giants with 279 yards and2 touchdown passes, while also using his legs. Devante Parker also scored two touchdowns, and burned the Giants secondary. The Dolphins have fun and exciting playmakers on offense, and have a chance to burn the Bengals defense this week.

The Dolphins will prevail in the Week 15 South Florida Tank Bowl, and win their fourth game of the season, leaving the Bengals will fall to 1-14, sealing the number one overall pick for the 2020 draft.

Prediction: CIN 14, MIA 24

OAK @ LAC

The Oakland Raiders are virtually eliminated from playoff contention, and they will never play in Oakland again. It is a sad time to be a Raiders fan, and an otherwise promising season appears to be ending in heartbreak and anguish. Point blank: the Raiders lack explosiveness. Darren Waller caught 8 balls last week, Josh Jacobs ran for 89 yards, and Tyrell Williams scored a touchdown in their loss to the Jaguars, but they scored just 16 points. Going back to Week 11, the Raiders average just 13 points per game, which is never going to get the job done, no matter how good your defense is. The Raiders need to find receivers on the outside who can create separation and stretch the perimeter. You could say Amari Cooper would be a perfect fit for this offense.

To talk about the Chargers for a moment, the Chargers followed an impressive 45-10 win over the Jaguars with a 39-10 loss to the Vikings. Philip Rivers cost his team once again with 3 interceptions to move his tally to 18 on the season. Melvin Gordon failed to live up to his holdout in the beginning of the season, rushing for just 551 yards all season. The Chargers offense has fell flat, and the turnovers killed their season. Don't get used to this version of the Chargers offense, because their days could be numbered on the same team going forward.

These AFC West rivals will be happy to wrap up 2019 after falling well short of expectations this season. The Chargers will walk away a little happier, because they will win this game.

Prediction: OAK 10, LAC 29

DAL @ PHI

Two 7-7 heavyweights battle for the NFC East crown this week in Philadelphia. It isn't right that one of these teams will win an NFL division in 2019, but that's the way it is, and it is my job to tell you who will get the job done.

Let's talk about the Eagles. They have been playing half asleep all season, especially on defense. They are just two weeks removed from being humiliated by the Dolphins, and required second half comebacks to beat the Giants and Redskins in back to back weeks. The health of their offensive stars has let them down all season as well. Alshon Jeffrey has been in and out of the lineup, the Eagles are running out backs like Boston Scott, and are forcing Carson Wentz to win games with receivers like Greg Ward and JJ Arcerga-Whiteside. To beat Dallas, Wentz will need to lean on the double headed tight end monster in Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert, and run the ball well with Miles Sanders. The Cowboys defense was recently shredded by Josh Allen and Mitchell Trubisky in back to back weeks, so Wentz can do the same this week.

Moving onto Dallas, the Cowboys have the number one offense in football. Dak Prescott has evolved into a star quarterback this season, and Amari Cooper has continued to play like one of the best receivers in football. They move the ball every single drive, and the only reasons they cannot score is when they turn the ball over in opponent territory or Brett Maher misses a chip shot field goal. That being said, the Cowboys offense has forgotten what their identity is, and that is a running football team. Ezekiel Elliott was just paid $90 million this offseason to be the focal point of the offense, yet head coach Jason Garrett has turned to the air more often than not all season long. The Cowboys need to return to their roots this week and run the ball with Elliott 30 times to punish the Eagles defense, and run away with the game. But knowing Jason Garrett, that will not happen. Even so, the Cowboys offense is prolific enough to march down the field all game long on the Eagles defense and score 30 plus points.

The only thing going for Philly in this game is playing at the Linc in front of the ravenous Eagles fans. The Cowboys are far more talented, more productive, and they already destroyed the Eagles in their first meeting back in October. The Dallas Cowboys should win the NFC East. But with Jason Garrett coaching the team, who knows. Stranger things have happened to this team over the years. 

Prediction: DAL 21, PHI 20

ARZ @ SEA

The regular season is wrapping up, and the Seattle Seahawks are very close to clinching home field advantage. Seattle can win out and earn the top seed in the NFC, and send the 49ers on the road in the postseason. It starts with the Arizona Cardinals at home, an opponent coming off an impressive win over the Cleveland Browns. Kyler Murray made plays in the air and the ground, and running back Kenyan Drake scored 4 touchdowns. They are coming into their stride late in the season, and will be happy to play fearless when they visit Seattle. 

This will be the first time Murray visits CenturyLink Field, and no matter how much the Cardinals try, there is no way they can prepare their rookie quarterback for the atmosphere he is about to enter. Seattle is one of the most difficult places to play in the league, and they will be a tough out in the playoffs. The Cardinals have the talent on offense to make it interesting, and they could make it close, but the Seahawks are massive favorites. Russell Wilson will deliver an MVP performance and lead the Hawks to an easy win.

Prediction: ARZ 13, SEA 30

DET @ DEN

The Broncos were no match for the Chiefs in the snow at Arrowhead, but rookie quarterback Drew Lock has two more weeks to let it rip. Going into 2020, the Broncos can test out their playmakers on offense and have some fun, because they could be fun to watch next season. Courtland Sutton is a 1,000 yard receiver in his second season in the league, Philip Lindsay is one of the most underrated running backs in football, and Drew Lock can emerge into a promising young quarterback. The Broncos don't have anything to play for, so it's time for them to revert back to kids having fun in the backyard and sling the pigskin around.

For the Lions, a season which started at 2-0-1 has spiraled into one win in their last eleven games, and Matt Stafford will not be returning this season, and who knows what the future holds for him. They just surrendered 458 yards passing to Jameis Winston and were forced to play from behind all game long. Perhaps I overestimated the talent on the Lions roster and their ability to overcome Stafford's injury and still win. The Lions stink.

The talent gap between these two teams is very discrepant, which could make for a lopsided victory for the home team. This is my Lock of the Week.

Prediction: DET 9, DEN 22

KC @ CHI

Bears fans will sit and watch on Sunday night wondering what could have been if they had selected Patrick Mahomes instead of Mitchell Trubisky back in April of 2017. Chicago has already been eliminated from playoff contention after a 12-4 season last year, and it comes down to the ineptitude from Trubisky from the first half of the season. Two interceptions against Green Bay last week cost them once again, and you have to wonder if the Bears front office will make a move at quarterback for 2020. Trubisky is playing for his job now, and he could sling the ball across the yard all night to show the Bears he is their quarterback of the future and not the past. Receiver Allen Robinson has had a career season in Chicago and they have other weapons on the outside like Anthony Miller and Taylor Gabriel, so the Bears offense can cause a stir in the Chiefs secondary, which stinks.

Over in Kansas City, the Chiefs are starting to hit their stride. Mahomes seems to be fully recovered from his ankle injury, and the Chiefs offense is playing as well as they did last season. Mahomes threw for 340 yards and 2 touchdowns last week in a winter wonderland, Tyreek Hill scored two touchdowns in the snow, and Travis Kelce caught 11 passes as well. The Chiefs look like they are back, and that poses a problem to the entire NFL. The Bears defense will give them all they got, but the Chiefs are too productive to slip up on Sunday night. 

Hand the Chiefs the dub. And who knows, if the Pats lose to the Bills on Saturday, the number two seed beckons for Kansas City. 

Prediction: KC 29, CHI 17

GB @ MIN

The NFC North title is on the line this Monday night when the Packers take on the Vikings in Minneapolis. Since the opening of U.S. Bank Stadium in 2016, the Packers are 0-3 in Minneapolis, and this will undoubtedly be the highest stakes matchup between these two teams in the history of their new building.

Reports are suggesting that Dalvin Cook will miss the remainder of the regular season, including this game. if the reports are true, this is a killer blow to Minnesota's offense, which runs through Cook. He has ran for 1,135 yards on the ground this season, and it will be difficult to find similar production from Alexander Mattison and Ameer Abdullah. On the outside, Adam Theilen is finally healthy, while Stefan Diggs and Kyle Rudolph have been making plays all season long. Not to mention Kirk Cousins has had the season of his life, and was unlucky not to be voted into the Pro Bowl.

The Packers march into Minnesota coming off three straight wins, while Aaron Rodgers and the offense haven't exactly set the world on fire. The Packers squeaked by the Redskins by 5 and were nearly exploited on a last second lateral sequence which would have potentially sent the game to overtime against the Bears. And in the past three meetings in Minneapolis, the Packers average 14 points scored, and have historically struggled versus Mike Zimmer's defense. The Packers offense is not high caliber to begin with, and it will be difficult for them to move the ball every drive with the lack of weapons on the outside. Aaron Rodgers can only do so much, and this is the weakest supporting cast he has had in years. 

On paper, this game has the makings to be a blockbuster contest. But to be perfectly candid, the Packers do not have the weapons to match the explosiveness of the Vikings offense, and Aaron Rodgers does not have enough around him to lead the Packers to a win. The Vikings are the superior, more balanced football team, and at home, they will reclaim the NFC North title in style.

Prediction: GB 17, MIN 23