2019 NFL Season Preview - Playoff Predix

Photo by Patrick Semansky/AP

Written by Sam DeCoste

Blog season is back, baby!

If you're new here, welcome to Franchise Quarterback! If you're a returning reader, you know I tell it like it is, and I like to be bold. Sometimes my boldness pays off, and sometimes it seems I've been drinking the Kool-Aid.

Who can forget when I predicted the Washington Redskins would win the NFC East? Or picking the San Francisco 49ers as the number one seed in the NFC? Well, I also accurately predicted that Houston would win the AFC South after finishing bottom in 2017, and that the Minnesota Vikings would miss the playoffs entirely after making it to the NFC Championship, and both of those predictions turned out to be correct, so I'm not a total knucklehead.

With the beginning of the 2019 NFL regular season rapidly approaching, it's time to repeat this very exercise I am looking back on from 2018, my Season Preview, projecting who will be going to the playoffs, and who will the world be watching on Super Bowl Sunday in the pro football's centennial season. And after weeks and months of head scratching, forecasting, and anticipation, I have compiled my list of who will be the twelve teams remaining at the end of the regular season, and who will have a chance of making it to Super Bowl LIV.

If you have strong thoughts of disagreement and resent towards me at the conclusion of this article, let me know in the comments below. My Twitter is @thesamdecoste and if you're feeling especially triggered, @ me. Maybe I'll change my mind.

AFC 

1. New England Patriots (13-3)

Hoisting the Lombardi Trophy for the third time in the past four years and their seventh all time title will be the most difficult path the Pats have had in years. Brady is a year older, Gronk is out the door, and the roster is not nearly as strong as it has been in years past. But then again, this is not the first time New England has seen dramatic turnover in an offseason.

Without Gronk, Belichick will expect his bolstered receiving core to step up to produce. Reigning Super Bowl MVP Julian Edelman can still be relied on, as can new additions such as potentially explosive first round pick N'Keal Harry, and a reinstated Josh Gordon.

But as Belichick showed us at the end of last season, the Patriots are going to depend on the ground game more than they ever have to sustain Tom Brady's career. Rookie running back Sony Michel ran for 396 rushing yards and scored six touchdowns last postseason, including the Super Bowl, and he could become a focal point of New England's offense this season.

It seems that every time Brady steps on the field, he makes NFL history. Quarterbacks have never put up the production he has at his age, which means Father Time is coming for him sooner rather than later. Don't be surprised if Brady starts to regress in his play this season, or if the Pats start looking at young quarterbacks out of college.

Despite the challenges the Patriots may face this season, they have showed us they are the most resilient franchise in football, and it will take a very talented, well-coached football team to knock them out. The odds are in New England's favor to once again win the AFC East, clinch a first round bye, and march onto their fourth straight Super Bowl appearance.

 2. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)

Wait what? The Steelers are going to win the division after losing two All-Pro caliber players on offense? The same division as the Ravens and Browns? Yes. The Pittsburgh Steelers are still the class of the AFC North, and here's why: Ben Roethlisberger and Mike Tomlin.

Roethlisberger may have played a part in driving Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell away, but ultimately, he's still a great quarterback who can lead the Steelers to the playoffs. He led the league in passing last year with over 5,100 yards and threw for 34 touchdowns. As for Brown and Bell, Pittsburgh is confident they can replicate their production in their young replacements, James Conner and Juju Smith Schuster. While Conner and Juju are not at that caliber yet, Conner ran for almost 1,000 yards and Juju ranked fifth in receiving yards last year. They also come without the drama of wanting big money extensions, at least for now.

Besides, the Steelers are winners. Since 2007, the Steelers have zero losing seasons, and they have missed the playoffs in back to back seasons just once, back in 2012-13. Mike Tomlin is as dependable head coach as there is in the NFL, and you know he will be happy to be free of the distractions they had to put up with in 2018.

Through addition by subtraction, the Steelers will be much better in 2019, and they won't miss a beat without Juice and Helmet Man.

3. Kansas City Chiefs (11-5)

The Chiefs were just a Dee Ford offsides call away from reaching their first Super Bowl in 49 years. Considering they were so close last year, who says they won't be even better this year and bring the bread home this year? Me, that's who.

Patrick Mahomes' rise to prominence is unlike anything we have ever seen at the quarterback position in his first season, throwing for 5,000 yards in first season, becoming just the third QB in history to throw for 50 touchdowns in a season, and winning the MVP.

There is no shortage of enough adjectives and superlatives to describe how fantastic Mahomes looked in 2018. But it's time to get real. The Chiefs defense sucks. They ranked second to last in total defense, giving up over 400 yards and 26 points per game last year. The KC corners couldn't cover their bread with peanut butter, they're just awful.

Mahomes was able to bail out his garbage defense last season by scoring 30, 40, even 50 points every game just to outscore the other team, but his offense will burn out if they repeat that same game formula this year. If it's possible, the defense could even regress after giving up some of their marquee players on defense, including Dee Ford, Justin Houston, and Tyrann Mathieu. 

The Chiefs can win double digit games with Mahomes, but they won't be able to win when it matters because the defense will undermine KC's Super Bowl hopes again.

 

4. Tennessee Titans (8-8)

Yessir. The Titans. The pedestrian, average, boring Tennessee Titans will win the same division as Nick Foles' Jags, Deshaun Watson's Texans, and Andrew Luck's Colts. I can explain.

The AFC South is going to be hot garbage in 2019, because there are four remarkably mediocre teams sharing a division who could each win the division, but could also completely tank. Think about it. For as much as the football contingency has praised the Colts, we have to remember they did start 1-5 last year, and their season could spiral if Andrew Luck is not 100% healthy. Down in Houston, Deshaun Watson took 65 sacks a year ago, and they did not reinforce the offensive line properly to fix this, not to mention they don't even have a general manager! And we haven't seen Nick Foles play adequately as a quarterback for sixteen weeks yet, so I'm not ready to say the Jags are in for a bounce back season.

For as average as Tennessee has been, they've won nine games every season since 2016, and they welcome back a Pro Bowl tight end, Delanie Walker, the young first round pick AJ Brown, and an underrated slot receiver in Adam Humphries. Not to mention the backfield is one of the most dynamic in the league, with the quick and shifty Dion Lewis and the hard-nosed Derrick Henry in a contract season. 

But the most influential offseason move could potentially be trading for Ryan Tannehill,  because even if he never sees the field, it puts the pressure on Mariota to step his game up. If Mariota doesn't step up, Tennessee has an adequate, experienced veteran who can take the reins in Tannehill. 

We are going to witness a four team bloodbath fighting for AFC South supremacy this year, and I think Tennessee will barely squeak past the competition.

5. Cleveland Browns (10-6)

Browns fans went nuts when they finally opened the BudLight victory fridge after their first win last season, so just imagine what it would be like in Cleveland if the Browns make their first playoff appearance since 2002.

Cleveland expects to make the playoffs this season, and why wouldn't they? This roster was built straight out of Madden, with BFFs Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry on opposite flanks, Nick Chubb in the backfield with Kareem Hunt slated to play after ten weeks, Myles Garrett and Sheldon Richardson rushing the passer, and Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams locking down the secondary. The Browns are stacked and it's not even fair how good their roster is. But the players better not get carried away.

But hold your horses. We've seen teams like this before. Champions of the offseason, coming in with possibly lofty and insurmountable expectations, buzzing for a breakout season. Sometimes those teams have lived up the hype, but not all of them have. There are things that could go wrong for Cleveland, like if Beckham or Landry get upset about their targets, or Mayfield throws his teammates under the bus, or if new head coach Freddie Kitchens makes questionable decisions at critical times. But the reason I think the Browns will be up for the task is the man they spent an eternity searching for: Baker Mayfield.

Finally, the Browns have found a star at the quarterback position to lead them to the promiseland. But what is the Browns promiseland? Is it a playoff berth? Or a division title? Or a playoff win? Conference championship game? Super Bowl? Cleveland will go as far as Baker Mayfield takes them, and the sky's the limit in 2019.

Read more about the Browns in my last article.

 

6. Buffalo Bills (10-6)

Nobody is talking about the Bills. But pretty soon, everybody will be talking about the Bills. It's year three for Sean McDermott, quietly one of the best coaches in the NFL the last two seasons for getting the most out of not a lot of talent in Buffalo. 

The back seven is the backbone of the team, featuring 21 year old middle linebacker Tremaine Edmunds, and studs in the secondary including Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, and Tre'Davious White. Believe it or not, Buffalo's secondary gave up the fewest passing yards in the NFL last season, at under 200 passing yards per game. And somehow, Ed Oliver fell to their laps at the ninth pick in the draft four months ago, and he provides a game-wrecking ability on the defensive line that the Bills haven't had since the days of Mario Williams.

While the defense is the stronger side of the ball in Buffalo, the offense is poised for a breakout season, led by second year quarterback, Josh Allen. With a revitalized offensive line and exciting pass catchers added to the fold like John Brown and Cole Beasley, and let's not forget, LeSean McCoy, playing in a contract year, Josh Allen is poised to make the biggest leap in development in 2019 of all the sophomore quarterbacks.

The Bills may not be the sexiest playoff pick, but with an exciting young quarterback and a brilliant head coach, the sky is the limit for the 2019 Buffalo Bills.

In the Hunt:
LAC (9-7)
BAL (9-7)
OAK (8-8)
IND (7-9)

NFC

1. Philadelphia Eagles (13-3)

It's Wentz time in Philly. Nick Foles is gone, and it's on Carson Wentz to be the man and lead the Eagles into the postseason and beyond. And with the supporting cast Howie Roseman has provided for Wentz, the Eagles are undoubtedly the most complete team in the NFC. Sit down, Cowboys fans.

Alshon Jeffrey, Zach Ertz and Nelson Agholor have produced for Wentz before, but now they've brought back Desean Jackson, and traded for Jordan Howard on the cheap. Philly's offense will be too explosive to contain, which will allow their defense to go after opposing quarterbacks all day long.

On the other side, offensive coordinators won't be able to sleep at night the day before playing the Eagles because their pass rush is ferocious, with Fletcher Cox, Timmy Jernigan, Brandon Graham, Vinny Curry, Derek Barnett, and Malik Jackson all capable of wrecking the game.

General Manager Howie Roseman has done a masterful job bolstering the roster yet again this offseason, and setting the Eagles up, and Carson Wentz up, for another potential Super Bowl run. The gulf in talent between Nick Foles and Carson Wentz will manifest itself this season, and the Eagles will be a force to be reckoned with in the NFC. They are the league's most complete team right now.

 

2. Los Angeles Rams (13-3)

The NFC champs fell just short of their first Super Bowl victory since 1999, but they are still the team to beat in the conference. Since Sean McVay took the helm in LA in 2017, the Rams average 31 points per game during the regular season, for over 1,000 points in two seasons.

Their offense will be among the most productive units in football yet again in 2019 because of Todd Gurley (if he's healthy), the best wide receiver trio in the league with Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods, and Cooper Kupp, and 33 year old head coach, Sean McVay, is the most innovative offensive mind in the NFL right now.

Last year, the Rams climbed back to the top by making it to the Super Bowl, but this year, that may be a task too tall for them. We don't know how good Todd Gurley will be with his nagging knee injury, we don't know if Jared Goff can carry a team when it matters in the postseason, and we certainly don't know if the defense can step up (except for Aaron Donald, that man is a a freak of nature).

The Rams should face no obstacle winning the NFC West, but I definitely think we will see a different uniform from the NFC in February.

 

3. Atlanta Falcons (12-4)

Atlanta's roster can match up with any squad in the entire NFL, but injuries ended their 2018 season before it could really get started. Stars like Deion Jones, Vic Beasley, and Keanu Neal, just to name defensive players, were all sidelined for significant time last year due to long-term injuries, but they are all coming back.

The offense is still a top five unit on paper, and with Steve Sarkisian finally out of the building, they can start to play more like the 2016 version of themselves than the ones we saw the past two seasons. Matt Ryan's MVP year is not that far behind him, Devonta Freeman is still an elite running back in this league, and Julio Jones is still the best wideout on the planet.

When we watch Falcons games this season, everyone will realize just how pathetic Steve Sarkisian was, because under the coordination of former Bucs head coach, Dirk Koetter, their offense will light up the NFL and remind the league how good they can be.

The Saints may have owned the division for the past two seasons, but I believe 2019 is the year that the Atlanta Falcons retake the NFC South and make another deep playoff run.

 

 4. Minnesota Vikings (11-5)

While all the fingers were being pointed at Kirk Cousins for Minnesota underachieving last year, don't be fooled. Last season was a collective failure from top to bottom. But after a 8-7-1 campaign, I am confident that Mike Zimmer will have his team ready and they will make it back to the playoffs.

Obviously, the defense is the backbone of the Vikings. In 2018, they ranked fourth in yards allowed (309) and third in sacks (50), and they have stars in every level of the defense in Danielle Hunter, Everson Griffen, Linval Joseph, Anthony Barr, Harrison Smith, and Xavier Rhodes. Minnesota's D can be relied on to shut down opposing offenses and get after the quarterback. At their best, the Vikings defense is the best in the league, even better than the Bears.

As good as the defense is, the Vikings will only go as far as Cousins is capable of taking them. Cousins may not elevate the play of a team around him, but he can still get the job done through the air with weapons like Stefon Diggs, Adam Theilen, and Kyle Rudolph. They can also run the ball effectively if Dalvin Cook can stay healthy.

The NFC North should be the most competitive division in 2019, but in the end, the Vikings will prevail over Green Bay and Chicago, and win their third division title in five years.

 

5. Green Bay Packers (11-5)

After two seasons of disgruntlement with the coaching staff, idleness from the front office, and absenteeism of playmaking ability from skill position players, the Packers are due to return the playoffs for the first time since the 2016 season, and it's all because of one man: Aaron Rodgers.

If Rodgers is the GOAT, he needs to step up and carry the Packers on his back again. He's done it before, when he told everyone to relax in 2014, and when he ran the table in 2016, with worse teams. Mike McCarthy is gone, so Rodgers won't be able to disagree with him anymore. It's on him and new head coach Matt LeFleur to revive Green Bay's offense and allow Aaron Rodgers to show the league he is still great.

On paper, Green Bay's roster does not stack up well with Minnesota or Chicago, or most teams in the NFC. But as Rodgers showed us in years past, elite play from the quarterback position can cover up a lack of talent elsewhere and elevate a team into deep playoff runs.

Matt LeFleur hasn't won over too many Packer fans or the football contingent, but if he can get the best out of Rodgers, Green Bay will be back.

 

6. New Orleans Saints (11-5)

For the past two seasons, Saints fans have watched their season end in the most heartbreaking of ways, from Marcus Williams' sideline gaff in the Minnesota Miracle, and the blatant missed pass interference call in last year's NFC Championship. You have to wonder if after the past two seasons of high performances and devastating playoff exits are going to be too much for New Orleans to bounce back from this time. I wanted to leave the Saints out of the playoffs, but I just couldn't do it. I think the Saints sneak in as a Wild Card in the NFC and will suffer another painful postseason defeat. Here's why:

Forty year old Drew Brees is not getting any younger, and his production is bound to take a dip sooner rather than later. In 2018, from Thanksgiving onwards, Drew Brees averaged just 174 passing yards per game, and threw four interceptions in five weeks. The offense slowed down as the season went on because defenses started to figure out how to shut them down, especially in games played outside the dome. It will be difficult for the Saints to replicate the explosiveness they showed on offense last year.

Going all in for three straight seasons may be a task too tall for Sean Payton's Saints, and I think the Saints are going to begin to burn out and have to settle for a Wild Card. And by the time the season ends, Saints fans are still going to be protesting the 2018 NFC Championship result.

In the Hunt:
DAL (9-7)
SEA (8-8)
CHI (8-8)

Super Bowl LIV:
Philadelphia Eagles vs New England Patriots

Call me predictable for once, but does anybody really think another team is gonna come out of the AFC? New England has been a staple in the AFC Championship since 2011, and has played in four of the last five Super Bowls. This franchise is unbeatable in the playoffs at Gillette or Mars because no AFC team since the 2015 Denver Broncos have been able to knock them out. Until a talented, well-coached, tactically sharp AFC team comes in and plays a flawless game against them, the Pats will clinch their ticket to the Super Bowl every single year until The Simpsons gets cancelled.

You could say projecting Carson Wentz's Eagles to win the NFC is a gamble, but I think it's time we saw Wentz play sixteen games at a high level for the first time in his career. Injuries have finished his season early the last three years, but if luck is on his side, he will lead the Eagles to their second Super Bowl appearance in three seasons. Like I said before, the Eagles are the most complete team in the league, and they should expect nothing less than making it to Miami.

Super Bowl Champion: New England Patriots

Tom Brady is money in a Super Bowl, and Bill Belichick is money all the time, especially his press conference game. What more can you say about a franchise with six rings already, with no signs of slowing down anytime soon? 

In a city where they have consistently struggled (the Pats are 1-5 at Miami since 2013), the New England Patriots will win their seventh Super Bowl in nineteen years, surpassing the Pittsburgh Steelers as the NFL's most glorified and prestigious franchise in the Super Bowl era.

Thanks for reading my Season Preview! If you enjoyed it, subscribe to the blog, leave a comment below, and stay tuned for more NFL content during the regular season!