Can the Steelers Win Without AB?

Written by Sam DeCoste

After months of drama and speculation, Antonio Brown finally got his wish. He will be leaving the Pittsburgh Steelers, and soon donning the famous Raider black and silver.

On Sunday morning, the Pittsburgh Steelers agreed to a deal with the Oakland Raiders to ship Antonio Brown to the Raiders in exchange for a pair of mid round draft picks. 

Brown also agreed to terms on a restructured contract with the Raiders, which will pay him over $54 million in the next three years, including $30 million in guaranteed money. Brown's previous contract with Pittsburgh had no guaranteed money remaining in his final three years.

After what turned out to be a turbulent finish to the 2018 season, which culminated in the Steelers missing the playoffs, Antonio Brown made it clear he wanted out of Pittsburgh. Disputes between Brown and quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and head coach Mike Tomlin spiraled late into last season, which led Brown to requesting a trade. The move forces the Steelers to swallow $21.12 million in dead cap, accounting for eleven percent of their entire cap.

Hall of Fame Caliber

In Mike Mayock's first major transaction as Raiders General Manager, he's struck gold. Giving up a third and fifth round picks to acquire one of the most productive wide receivers this league has ever seen is a stroke of brilliance. 

Just five months ago, Jon Gruden traded their star wideout, Amari Cooper, to Dallas for a first round pick, which left a significant void in the Raiders receiving corps for the rest of the season, and remarkably turned the Cowboys' season around. But now, the Raiders upgraded from Amari Cooper and acquired the most productive receiver in the NFL from the past six seasons, and surrendered no more than a third and fifth round pick to pry him away. 

Antonio Brown's numbers speak for themselves. In the past years, Brown has caught at least 100 passes, racked 1,284 yards, and scored nine touchdowns. Brown's level of consistency and production in his career with Pittsburgh is Hall of Fame caliber, and he can certainly aid one of the league's most pedestrian passing attacks, which averaged 234 yards passing yards per game in 2018.

Nonetheless, the Raiders have been a perennial loser for nearly two decades. Since their last Super Bowl appearance in the 2002 season, the Raiders have just one winning season, and it won't be easy for the Raiders to climb up the standings in 2019 with the NFL's toughest strength of schedule (.539) and the Chiefs and Chargers lurking in the division. However, a blockbuster move such as this one could potentially be the spark to lead the Raiders back to their days of winning football.

Going forward, the Raiders will have three first round picks in this year's draft, and they also locked up Trent Brown to a record signing. With their impending move to Las Vegas approaching, the Raiders are a much better team than they were a few days ago, and they just might look even stronger after the draft. If they could just figure out where they're playing games next year...

A Franchise in Transition

For the first time since 2011, Antonio Brown will not be starting on the outside for the Pittsburgh Steelers come the start of the season. The 2019 season will certainly be a year of transition for Pittsburgh, considering the amount of production that is leaving the building. Brown is out the door, and Le'Veon Bell is about to follow suit. 

Kevin Colbert and the Steelers completely botched Antonio Brown's exit from a front office perspective. Pittsburgh will be swallowing $21.12 million in dead money against their salary cap, all for a player no longer on the team. And in exchange, they receive a pair of mid round draft picks. The return for the Steelers in this deal is absolutely pathetic, and it is a terrible look for a franchise in transition. For one of the most prolific receivers the league has ever seen, the market certainly had to be stronger than the return which the Steelers found. 

With eleven percent of the Steelers' cap already invested in a receiver out the door, Kevin Colbert has even fewer resources to strengthen the team going into the 2019 season. Their limited cap space makes Colbert's job to replace Brown's averages of 104 receptions, 1,380 yards, and 9 touchdowns per season since 2011 even harder.

With Brown out of the picture, all eyes will be on Juju-Smith Schuster to step up as Pittsburgh's number one receiver. In 2018 alone, Smith-Schuster caught 111 passes for 1,426 yards and seven touchdowns. Smith-Schuster's production has Steelers fans believing he can take the next step and become a true number one receiver. But it should be noted that he posted these numbers with defenses double covering Antonio Brown, which allowed Smith-Schuster to flourish in one-on-one matchups. AB won't be there anymore to complement Smith-Schuster. The load will be on him to carry the receiving corps on his back without the future Hall of Famer there to open space up for him, and the jury is out on whether or not Smith-Schuster is capable.

Despite the contributions Antonio Brown gave to the Steelers offense, the Steelers were only able to win three playoff games in Brown's eight years with the Steelers, with none since 2016. If the Steelers struggled to advance far into the postseason with Brown already there, it will become even more challenging for them to win without him. This move does not make the Steelers better, and it becomes a massive blow for their chances to win the AFC North in 2019.

With the Browns surging with a young, hungry squad led by Baker Mayfield, and the current division champs in Baltimore, the Steelers are quickly becoming an AFC afterthought. The Steelers are going into 2019 with their 37 year old quarterback, with James Conner and Juju Smith Schuster as their top caliber offensive weapons, and an otherwise mediocre roster. If the Steelers do not want to become a has-been, they need to strengthen their roster very quickly, otherwise 2019 will be a wash for Steelers Nation everywhere. 

Stay tuned for more offseason content on Franchise Quarterback!