2018 Midseason NFL Awards Predictions

Written by Ben Slavin

In the NFL, everyone says they only care about team success and winning Super Bowls. But we all know getting recognition for their individual efforts takes some of the sting out of watching the Super Bowl from their couch. And those who get an award and a chance to play in the big game, you ask? A small award is perfect for keeping players motivated to get the ultimate prize -- a Lombardi Trophy. Now let’s find out who I see taking home these prestigious honors. Remember, these awards are not always given to the most deserving candidates.

Comeback Player of the Year

JJ Watt, DE, Houston Texans

Watt has barely played the last two years after looking like a surefire Hall of Famer the four years before that. Now, he’s back, and Watt has been a big part in the Texans’ 6-3 record and position atop the AFC South. Maybe later in the season we’ll even get to see vintage Watt catching red zone touchdowns.

Other Candidates:

• Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts
• Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers

Out of the two star quarterbacks, Luck has by far the better chance of winning. Rodgers is someone we expect greatness from every year and to lead his team to the playoffs. With Luck, however, no one was sure if he was actually going to play again and at what level after a mysterious injury kept him out for two years. Both teams are likely to miss the playoffs, but with similar records, Luck gets credit for an overachieving team while Rodgers' team has underwhelmed.

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants

While Barkley is on a terrible Giants team and players on bad teams don’t typically get awards, what he’s doing is amazing. He already has over 500 rushing yards at 4.7 yards per carry and nearly another 500 receiving yards. The eye test does Barkley even better. Surrounded by a terrible quarterback and offensive line, Barkley is often thrown the ball short with the expectation he will make three guys miss and get the first down. He’s done that a surprising amount this year and has some unbelievable highlights of him just bouncing off defenders and taking a screen or toss 60 yards.

Other Candidates:

• Calvin Ridley, WR, Atlanta Falcons
• Baker Mayfield, QB, Cleveland Browns
• Kerryon Johnson, RB, Detroit Lions

Ridley had a magical three game stretch earlier in the season, with 15 catches for 264 yards and 6 touchdowns. The rest of his season has been pretty ordinary, but with defenses keying in on Julio Jones, another great stretch is very possible. Quarterbacks always are the favorites for awards, and while none of them have been all that impressive, at least one will be considered. In my estimation, Mayfield has the best combination of on-field play and media hype. Josh Rosen and Josh Allen have been very impressive in limited play on awful teams and Sam Darnold has been a turnover machine on a mediocre team. The Browns are decent and improved noticeably when Mayfield took over for Tyrod Taylor. If the Lions commit to him with a workload of 20 touches a game, Johnson could have a late-season surge that propels him to the award. While the Lions continue to waste carries on LeGarrette Blount and Ameer Abdullah, Johnson has been clearly their best back and sports 500 yards on 5.7 yards per carry.

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Bradley Chubb, EDGE, Denver Broncos

Sacks are the sexiest defensive stat and as we all know, sex sells. Chubb, the best rookie sack artist, had a disappointing start to the season. He’s picked it up recently, though, with 6.5 sacks in his last 4 games. In these last four games, Chubb has done exactly what the Broncos hoped for when they drafted him -- be able to beat single blocks while Von Miller gets double-teamed. Chubb’s output has helped both Miller and the Broncos defense as a whole. Every quarterback who comes to play Denver leaves a lot more sore than they came in.

Other Candidates:

• Darius Leonard, OLB, Indianapolis Colts
• Derwin James, S, Los Angeles Chargers
• Donte Jackson, CB, Carolina Panthers
• Denzel Ward, CB, Cleveland Browns

Leonard has done a little bit of everything at linebacker for the Colts. He leads the league in tackles and has four sacks, three forced fumbles, and two fumble recoveries. Leonard also had a memorable game against Washington, piling up 18 tackles, a sack, a forced fumble, and a pass deflection. Like Leonard, Derwin James has impacted the game in multiple ways. He has 55 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 1 interception, and 6 passes defensed on a better team. Both corners in contention for the award have very similar stats. Action Jackson (Donte Jackson) has 37 tackles, a sack, a forced fumble, 4 interceptions, and 7 passes defensed. Ward has 40 tackles, a forced fumble, 2 fumble recoveries, 3 interceptions, and 9 passes defensed. Jackson has the edge in interceptions, advanced stats, and team record, so expect him over Ward if a corner takes home DROY.

Coach of the Year

Andy Reid, Kansas City Chiefs

With a clear top four teams in the league, the coach of the year is likely to be one of their coaches. Two of those coaches can be eliminated because Sean McVay won’t get back-to-back awards and Bill Belichick and the Patriots receiving recognition is nationally hated. That leaves us with Sean Payton of the Saints, who hasn’t won the award since 2006, and Andy Reid of the Chiefs, who hasn’t won the award since 2002. It likely comes down to team record and based on their remaining schedules, I like Reid and the Chiefs to take it. Reid has done an unbelievable job coaching up his offensive talent and creating schemes to make them look even better. As you’ll see later, Reid isn’t the only Chief competing for hardware.

Other Candidates:

• Sean Payton, New Orleans Saints
• Anthony Lynn, Los Angeles Chargers
• Ron Rivera, Carolina Panthers
• Sean McVay, Los Angeles Rams

Like I said earlier, if the Saints have the best or second-best record in the league, Payton has a great shot. Lynn is a sleeper candidate with his Chargers sitting at 6-2. If they can get to 12 or 13 wins and beat the Chiefs, he could pull out the underdog victory. With two trophies already on his mantle, Rivera will have to do a lot to get a third. If the Panthers win the South with 13 wins and a sweep of the Saints, number three could be his. For McVay to go back-to-back, the Rams would probably have to go 15-1 with no other team having more than 13 wins.

Defensive Player of the Year

Aaron Donald, DL, Los Angeles Rams

I know I said earlier that Sean McVay wouldn’t win Coach of the Year because he won it last year, but come on. It’s Aaron Donald. He was the best defender in football last year and has seemingly been much improved. Sacks are what win defensive awards and normally that would hurt a defensive interior player like Donald. Not this year, though. He’s second in the league with 10 sacks despite almost always being double-teamed. Besides the sacks, he lives in opposing backfields. He blows up run plays, draws holding penalties, and pressures quarterbacks like no other. Just watch the play last week where he’s on top of Alvin Kamara the second he gets the ball.

Other Candidates:

• Khalil Mack, EDGE, Chicago Bears
• JJ Watt, DE, Houston Texans
• Danielle Hunter, EDGE, Minnesota Vikings

There’s no one dominating with tackles or posting high interception totals, so all the candidates should be players leading the league in sacks. The Khalil Mack storyline of getting payback on Oakland by destroying every quarterback in sight is doing a lot more for his candidacy than his production. After a great start, an ankle injury slowed his roll. That same injury has forced him to miss the last two games. When he returns, he’ll have to do a lot of catch up with just 5 sacks, though he does have 4 forced fumbles and many memorable plays. I spoke about how great Watt has been in the Comeback Player of the Year section and he’s always in contention for this award when healthy. Hunter, the current league sack leader at 11.5, will likely have to win the category by a significant amount to be a serious candidate. Hunter isn’t a big name outside of Minnesota and while it’s possible for him to continue his blistering pace, it’s unlikely.

Most Valuable Player

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs

When the Chiefs traded away a quarterback who led them to the playoffs almost every year he’d been there, they showed a lot of faith in backup Patrick Mahomes. And Mahomes has proved them right over and over again. With his cannon of an arm, Mahomes is able to utilize the Chiefs’ amazing weapons far better than Captain Checkdown ever could have to the tune of 2,900 yards and 29 TDs. With those kind of numbers, you’d expect a lot of interceptions and a low completion percentage, but Mahomes laughs in your face with just 7 picks and 66% of his throws completed. Besides the numbers, he’s led the Chiefs to a 8-1 record despite a horrible defense. The only thing holding him back is the chance that some voters won’t even consider him because of his age.

Other Candidates:

• Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints
• Todd Gurley, RB, Los Angeles Rams
• Jared Goff, QB, Los Angeles Rams

I worry Brees steals the MVP from a more-deserving Mahomes due to the story implications. Having never won the award before and recently breaking the all-time completions and passing yards records, voters could look at the 7-1 Saints and pick Brees. While both teams have great weapons, Brees has worse numbers and can’t make the jaw-dropping throws Mahomes does weekly. Todd Gurley is the most deserving recipient of this award, but since he plays running back, he will never get it. Calvin Johnson had a ridiculous season at wideout and wasn’t close to winning. It took Adrian Peterson nearly breaking the rushing record for him to get it. Even though Gurley will also have great numbers, one of the quarterback candidates will take it from him. The quarterback that takes it from him might even be his own teammate. The quarterback of the best team in football is a lock to be considered for the award, and the Rams have a great chance at the league’s best record. Both Goff and Gurley will suffer from being on the same team and the coaching efforts of Sean McVay. Gurley is a virtual lock to win Offensive Player of the Year (which isn’t on here because it’s a stupid award) and Goff could see an MVP trophy in his future.

Think someone else will win the awards? Or just in general think I know nothing about football? Go crazy in the comments.