2018 Week 11 Predix

Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images

Written by Sam DeCoste


With Thanksgiving just a week away, the playoff picture is beginning to take shape. Every game is crucial to the playoff standings, and there is no shortage of massive games in the NFL this week, with valuable wins on the line. Week 11 begins in Seattle, where the Seahawks battle the Packers for a critical NFC win, the Bengals and Ravens have their consequential rematch from Week 2 in Baltimore, the Eagles and Saints go head to head in New Orleans, and finally, the Chiefs and Rams duel in what should be a classic shootout between two 9-1 squads. While the Bills, Browns, Dolphins, Jets, Patriots, and 49ers go on bye, 26 teams are in action, and there are 13 games to discuss and predict. Carry on, and enjoy!

Here are my season records:

Lock of the Week record: 6-4

Last week's record: 8-6

Regular season record: 98-48-2

GB @ SEA

The Packers return to CenturyLink Field for the first time since the 2014 NFC Championship, which ended in calamity and heartbreak for Green Bay. How different this matchup is since the last meeting in this venue. Two teams which competed for a ticket to the Super Bowl in early 2015 are now fighting for simply a winning record three years later. In the Russell Wilson era, Seattle is 3-0 against the Packers in CenturyLink, and I believe Seattle will maintain their twelfth man advantage over the road team, which has struggled to find their identity this far into the season. Russell Wilson is still playing at a high level for Seattle, and their running game ranks best in the league. While the Seahawks may have a losing record thus far, but somehow, every single Seahawks loss was by a single score, with eight points being the highest margin of defeat. They lost to the Rams by a combined seven points in two games. They know how to compete, and Green Bay isn't bothersome enough competition to give the Seahawks problems.

Prediction: GB 23, SEA 27

PIT @ JAX

What was supposed to be a long-awaited Divisional Playoff rematch in primetime was flexed out to just another ordinary daytime game with something on the line for just one team. Somehow, Jacksonville, the third ranked defense in yards allowed in the league, are the bottom feeders of the AFC South. They haven't won since a Week 4 victory against the Jets, but they have since given up 28 points per game in five straight losses. Reaching the playoffs will be very difficult to do in a very competitive AFC, especially when the schedule has bestowed Pittsburgh at your doorstep. The Steelers haven't played since last Thursday, so they should be fresh and ready to go and win their sixth straight game. That being said, the Steelers cannot afford to overlook the Jaguars, and nobody knows that more than the Steelers, who overlooked them twice, including in the playoffs! If the Steelers show up, they should take care of the hapless Jaguars.

Prediction: PIT 24, JAX 16

DAL @ ATL

Did we write the Cowboys off too soon? Perhaps we did. But from week to week, you just don't know which Cowboys team you will get. Will the Cowboys which surrendered eleven of fourteen third down conversions and 28 points at home to the Titans show, or will the Cowboys which laid down a marker in Philadelphia on Sunday Night Football show? Tough to say, considering the Falcons are not going to roll over. Despite that uninspiring loss to Cleveland (!!!), the Falcons average 27 points in their last four games, and 32 every home game. They can light up the scoreboard, and Dallas has struggled away from Jerry's World all season. Their first road victory came against the Eagles last week, and although their offense has opened up with the addition of Amari Cooper, I'm not sure I can buy into the Cowboys quite yet.

Prediction: DAL 27, ATL 30

CIN @ BAL

Marvin Lewis sure must be happy to rehire his assistant to the regional manager in Dwight Schrute. After a torrid hot start where the Bengals scored 31 points per game, they have trailed off, scoring 14 or fewer points in two of their previous three games, against the Chiefs and Saints. Not good enough. Now they square off against the Ravens once again, who are fighting for their playoff lives, to stay alive in the AFC. Sitting at 4-5, the Ravens have lost three straight games, and they have little wiggle room to keep losing games the rest of the season. That being said, the Ravens have a fantastic opportunity to swing the AFC North in their favor if they can knock off the Bengals, who obliterated them back in Week 2. The Bengals have won eight of their last ten matchups against the Ravens, and the last time the Bengals set foot into M&T Bank Stadium, they eliminated Baltimore from playoff contention, even though they had nothing to play for themselves. I think Cincinnati will take a crucial step in securing their Wild Card spot, while sending Baltimore into the darkness of pretenders.

Prediction: CIN 28, BAL 23

HOU @ WSH

Houston returns fresh from their bye week with an enticing matchup in FedEx Field this week. The Redskins are still atop the NFC East, with the Eagles and Cowboys lurking, and they need to keep winning games to ease the pressure. But their schedule doesn't get easier down the stretch. The first place Texans march into town looking to tie their franchise record of seven straight wins. Houston is ranked 14th in overall offense, averaging 24 points per game, but they are facing a regressing Redskins defense, which ranked top five this time last week, but now they are 17th in yards allowed. After surrendering over 500 yards of offense to Ryan Fitzpatrick's Buccaneers, it's hard to see Washington containing Deshaun Watson's Texans while getting Alex Smith to carry the Redskins over the line in a matchup of first place teams. It's going to be one stressful Thanksgiving for Redskins fans.

Prediction: HOU 27, WSH 14

TEN @ IND

These AFC South rivals have won a combined five straight games, and now they face up for the first time in 2018. The stakes may have never been this high between the Titans and Colts, who are both chasing the Texans in the division, and a win could thrust them into a position to clinch a Wild Card, after being dead and buried just two weeks ago. And as the writer who needs to pick the games, I have to say, I may not have had such a difficult game to predict all season. The Titans have beaten both Super Bowl teams from last year, but they also lost to the car crash that is the 2018 Buffalo Bills. Meanwhile, the Colts are on fire. They've scored 108 points in their three straight victories (!!!). That includes wins over the two top ranked passing defenses in the NFL (Bills, Jaguars). So let's talk about the Marcus Mariota versus Andrew Luck narrative. They haven't matched up often, due to injuries, but Andrew Luck is 3-0 against Mariota going back to 2015, and the Colts have an impressive record against the Titans, so I will roll with the hot hand.

Prediction: TEN 20, IND 27

CAR @ DET

Carolina may be a favorite for a playoff spot, but that was an embarrassing loss in Pittsburgh. They've had ten days to watch the tape, to sit on their humiliation, and their drive to get back out and win a football game again. In they come to Detroit, home of Matt Patricia's 3-6 Lions. Detroit will not be in the playoffs. They have had a woeful season, and it's hard to see why they will hang around and be competitive for the remainder of the season, especially when teams like the Panthers need to stack wins late in the year to make a postseason run. The Panthers are back where they belong, on Sunday afternoons, where they know how to win. They will batter the Lions.

Prediction: CAR 27, DET 10

TB @ NYG

Last place versus last place. The stakes of this game speak for itself. The Bucs are 1-6 since starting 2-0 out of the gate, while the Giants finally won their second game of the season in another last place exhibition against the Niners. You can see why fans of these teams can be so frustrated, considering these offenses are stacked with weapons. The likes of Mike Evans, Odell Beckham, Saquon Barkley, Desean Jackson, Chris Godwin, and Evan Engram will be on the same field. I think the Giants have a mighty fine chance of pulling off a second straight victory, but I know that Ryan Fitzpatrick will stretch the field on the 22nd ranked defense of the Giants, while I also know Eli Manning loves those dumpoffs to Saquon.


Prediction: TB 29, NYG 21

DEN @ LAC

It's remarkable how easy the Chargers schedule has been to this point. They are 7-2, and now the Broncos are coming into town? The Chargers could be 8-2 going into Thanksgiving. Are the 3-6 Broncos going to cause any problems for them? I have no reason to believe in an upset in Los Angeles. Denver has lost six of their last seven games, and they just don't have the talent to cause the Chargers any stress.


Prediction: DEN 9, LAC 28

OAK @ ARZ

The Raiders are already the frontrunner to secure the number one pick in the 2019 NFL Draft at this point in the season. Should they lose to the 2-7 Cardinals, consider their spot cemented. They indeed will lose to the Cardinals, whose offense has enjoyed the post-Mike McCoy era on offense. Just look at the performance against the Chiefs last week. David Johnson, the underutilized centerpiece of this offense, touched the ball 28 times, scored a touchdown, and stacked 183 yards from scrimmage. He may be the game changer on Sunday, because I don't know how Jon Gruden's defense will contain David Johnson.

Prediction: OAK 13, ARZ 24

PHI @ NO

The Eagles are 4-5, with the Redskins and Cowboys ahead of them in the division. Across the board, Philadelphia has been dormant compared to last year. They've lost two straight home games, which hasn't happened since they finished 7-9 two years ago, and they've only scored more than 24 points once all season. After an offseason of celebration and exuberance over their first ever Super Bowl victory, the Eagles have been flat from the start, and they are at risk of missing the playoffs completely. Desperate football teams hardly ever escape New Orleans with a victory, and it certainly won't happen this week. The Saints will run over the Super Bowl holders. This is my Lock of the Week.

Prediction: PHI 17, NO 38

MIN @ CHI

The Bears haven't played a meaningful game in years. Now they are thrust into the Sunday Night spotlight, playing for first place in the NFC North against the Vikings, in Soldier Field. There's so much to savor about this matchup. The Bears rank fourth in total defense, the Vikings are fifth. Kirk Cousins has thrown for 2,600 yards and 17 touchdowns, Mitchell Trubisky has thrown for 2,300 yards and 19 touchdowns. The Bears are 6-3, the Vikings are 5-3-1. While the Bears have played very well this year, and they are sitting in first place, I can't bet against the Vikings. Minnesota is 6-1 in their last seven games against Chicago, and Soldier Field has not hosted Sunday Night Football since 2012. The Bears have yet to prove that they are for real when the lights go down, while the Vikings have proven they can win when it matters. I can't bet against the Vikes.

Prediction: MIN 26, CHI 20

KC @ LAR

This is the biggest game of the year. Period. 9-1 versus 9-1. Andy Reid versus Sean McVay. Jared Goff versus Patrick Mahomes. Todd Gurley versus Kareem Hunt. A combined 871 yards per game, a combined 68 points per game, and 83 touchdowns scored this season. There are hardly ever games of this magnitude, between two great games, with two combined losses by Week 11 in the NFL, very often. This has all the makings of a potential Super Bowl preview. What else can I say? It doesn't get much better than this. Only one team can win, and I think it will be the home side. Patrick Mahomes is still unproven on a national stage, against the best competition, against the best defenses. The Rams aren't the best defense statistically, but they are getting healthy, and starting to shut teams down in crunch time. Both teams can score at will, but the Rams are capable of scoring every possession, while the Chiefs have taken their foot off the gas recently. The Rams will be the first team to win their tenth game of 2018, and take one step closer to an NFC West title.

Prediction: KC 30, LAR 34