2018 Week 12 Predix

Ricky Carioti/The Washington Post

Written by Sam DeCoste

We have reached Thanksgiving! Off the field, it's an opportunity to eat up, sit back, relax, and be grateful for our blessings. On the field, it's the turn of the season, where the contenders are separated from the pretenders, where wins are most valued and hardest earned, and when the season really gets interesting.
Thanksgiving of course always provides us with three games on Thursday. This year, the holiday slate includes Bears-Lions, Falcons-Saints, but most significantly, a classic rivalry matchup between the Redskins and Cowboys, with first place at stake in the NFC East. We also have Seahawks-Panthers, Dolphins-Colts, and Titans-Texans to tune into this weekend. Now it's time to project who will win this weekend. Carry on, and enjoy the predictions! 

Here are my season records:

Lock of the Week record: 7-4

Last week's record: 6-7

Regular season record: 104-55-2

 CHI @ DET

This was supposed to be a very lopsided Thanksgiving rematch between the class of the NFC North and the bottom feeders of the division. Then bizarrely, Mitchell Trubisky threw a monkey wrench into this game by hurting his shoulder. Now the ten year veteran, Chase Daniel, gets the start for the Bears. Even as the second best quarterback in this matchup, the Bears overmatch the Lions in every other position. They've allowed just 15 points per game the last four weeks, and they lead the league in forced turnovers. Chicago is one of the most complete teams in the league, and they just beat Detroit only two weeks ago. The only possible scenario which the Lions get the victory is if the Bears overlook the competition. But even with Chase Daniel starting at QB, the Lions are outclassed. 

Prediction: CHI 20, DET 13

 WSH @ DAL

NFC East matchups are usually overhyped every year, but this one fits the billing for a classic game. The winner will be in the driver's seat to win the division. Since Alex Smith's devastating injury to end his season, Dallas has been pegged as an overwhelming favorite to walk away with the division. Not so fast. The Redskins are still in the race. They've fought injuries all season, losing their starting quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and guard already. Besides, how much of a downgrade is Colt McCoy? In ten games, Alex Smith threw for just 10 touchdowns, averaging 218 yards per game. McCoy may not be the most dynamic signal caller out there, but it's too early to write off Washington. Let's not forget, Colt McCoy's last career victory came in Jerry's World in 2014, against a 12-4 Dallas squad featuring Tony Romo, Demarco Murray, and Dez Bryant. The 2018 edition of the Cowboys offense has opened up of late, but against the Redskins earlier this season, Dallas produced just 17 points and only 33 rushing yards for Ezekiel Elliott. This game should go right down to the wire, but I am not ready to give up on the Redskins.

Prediction: WSH 20, DAL 17

 ATL @ NO

Remember when the Saints lost to the Bucs back on opening day? Neither do I. The 9-1 Saints haven't tasted defeat since then, and they have been in a word, unstoppable. More than that, invincible. Over 400 yards of offense every week, 37 points per game, and 45 total touchdowns scored this season. Combine that with Michael Thomas' 82 catches for 1,042 yards, Alvin Kamara's 192 touches for 1,127 yards from scrimmage, and Drew Brees' league leading passer rating (126.9). Oh and by the way, Brandon Marshall is making his debut. The Falcons aren't very grateful to play in their division, considering where both teams are heading. One is heading for an 8-8 finish, the other is heading for the Super Bowl in their rival's own backyard.

Prediction: ATL 17, NO 47

 SEA @ CAR

Carolina will be happy to return to Bank of America Stadium after two embarrassing road losses, needing a win to get their season back on track. Meanwhile, Seattle prevailed over Green Bay in an entertaining Thursday night affair, sitting at .500. I'll tell ya what, man, this is the most balanced game of the week. Two teams right on the fringe of a playoff spot, and neither can afford to drop this one. I'm gonna roll the dice here and pick Seattle in an upset, because their running game and defense will be enough to bring them over the line. Besides, although Carolina has not lost at home this season, this is their toughest test yet, and should they lose, it's going to be tough to make it to the playoffs.

Prediction: SEA 24, CAR 20

 CLE @ CIN

It's finally time for the Hue Jackson revenge game. After a week away, the Browns are back, ready to beat their former head coach, who, never forget, won three games in three years at Cleveland (!!!). This game is not as easy as you may think for a Cincinnati victory, nor can the Bengals afford to overlook the Browns. The Bengals have lost four of their last five, losing by an average margin of 20 points. And sitting at 5-5 by Thanksgiving, the Bengals need to stack some wins with AJ Green out to have a chance of beating out other AFC teams like the Colts and Titans. They should finally taste victory again this week, and do Hue Jackson proud.

Prediction: CLE 23, CIN 27

 NE @ NYJ

The Jets are in the running for laughing stock of the NFL. The last time we saw the third best team in New York, the Buffalo Bills wiped them out of their own stadium. The Bills game proves that the Jets have quit on Todd Bowles, and it's time for him to go. Just ask Jets fans, they'll let you know. Now the Patriots are in town. Oof. I know, the Patriots were blown out themselves in their last game, but it's Tom Brady. It's the Patriots. Brady is 23-5 in his career after a bye week, and the Jets are not the same team that used to give him problems. These are Todd Bowles' Jets. It's over.

Prediction: NE 27, NYJ 19

 NYG @ PHI

Hope is fading quickly for the defending Super Bowl champions. This is a must win. Period. No way around it. Against the three win Giants, the Eagles need to start fast. They've scored just 21 points in the first quarter this season, which is the fewest in the league. Scoring early forces Manning to beat the Eagles down the field, which is not a strength of his at this point in his career. That takes Saquon out of the game early, as well. If the Eagles can start fast, that minimizes Barkley's production, and maximizes Philadelphia's chance to win, and their slim hopes of winning the NFC East.

Prediction: NYG 13, PHI 20

 JAX @ BUF

How ten months can change. Back in January, the Jaguars prevailed in a 10-3 playoff victory over the jubilant Buffalo Bills to advance to the Divisional Round. But now, both teams sit at 3-7, practically eliminated from playoff contention this season. The last time we saw the Bills in action, they throttled the Jets by the score of 41-10, without Josh Allen, playing their most complete game since 2014. Now, Josh Allen is back, and he will start against Jalen Ramsey's Jaguars, who previously said back in the summer that Allen is "trash." Well, Ramsey has been forced to eat his own words plenty of times this season, and Allen has the opportunity to shut him up this week. Besides, the crumbling Jags have lost six straight games, which is the longest active streak in the league. Tyrod Taylor couldn't take Buffalo over the line last time these teams played, but Josh Allen is a difference maker, and he just may be the difference between these teams.

Prediction: JAX 10, BUF 23

 SF @ TB

Another mediocre season for the Buccaneers. Considering their torrid hot start, 2-0 after beating the Saints and Eagles, it is a shock to see the Bucs fall off as bad as they have. They return to Jameis Winston again after Ryan Fitzpatrick was benched again. Honestly, enough quarterback changes. No more episodes of Florida's least favorite game show, "Who's TB's QB?" Let Winston play the rest of the season and see if he is the franchise quarterback for the regime coming in after Dirk Koetter is finally fired. In come the bye-fresh Niners, coming off of a last minute defeat to the Giants. As things stand, San Fran holds the number one pick in the draft. They don't have the talent to stack up with Tampa, and that will manifest itself.

Prediction: SF 20, TB 30

 OAK @ BAL

Bold prediction: Joe Flacco will never start another game for the Baltimore Ravens. Lamar Jackson came in against the Bengals and flashed a second dimension which we have never seen from a Ravens quarterback before. While running for nearly 30 carries is not sustainable, the Ravens offense is much more dynamic and explosive. But the Ravens coaching staff needs to get Lamar Jackson comfortable throwing the ball more, you know, like actual quarterbacks are supposed to do. Now, in a tight AFC, the Ravens can go above .500 with a win against...the Raiders. Talk about coming in with a silver platter. The Raiders are a symbol of dysfunction, embarrassment, and losing. Against a Ravens squad looking to stay in the playoff hunt, the Raiders will not put up a fight.

Prediction: OAK 10, BAL 27

 ARZ @ LAC

Any slim hopes of the Chargers winning the AFC West have been put to bed, after a shocking upset loss to Denver at home. But not to fear, Chargers fans, for a 7-3 team in the 2018 edition of the American Football Conference is sufficient to get over the finish line. They will make it to the postseason without much trouble. That being said, their schedule doesn't get easier from here. With games coming up at Pittsburgh and Kansas City, and home games against the Bengals and Ravens, the Chargers can ill afford to overlook the NFC's least talented team. I think the Chargers are far too talented to drop a game to the Cardinals, which lost to the Raiders at home last week. 

Prediction: ARZ 14, LAC 26

 PIT @ DEN

We've become so accustomed to watching these teams play late in the season, fighting for a crucial conference victory, or squaring off in the postseason, which has delivered some classics over the years. Well, these are not your older brother's Broncos. There is no Tim Tebow or Peyton Manning to will your team to victory. The $36 million dollar man, Case Keenum, marches in with the Broncos at 4-6, as yet another season is wasted by the Super Bowl 50 champs. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh escaped Jacksonville with a victory, despite nearly succumbing to Jacksonville for a third time in two seasons. The Steelers seriously have to be careful. They're on upset alert again, on the road, in a venue where they haven't won since 2009. The Steelers have a habit of underperforming against teams they should beat handily, and they will surely let it happen again this week. But they still have enough to outlast the Broncos, no matter how much Denver throws at them.

Prediction: PIT 24, DEN 23

 MIA @ IND

Enough Eagles and Cowboys games in the afternoon window. Dolphins-Colts is America's Game of the Week! Two teams battling to go above .500. The loser has an uphill battle to make it to the postseason. The winner will be 6-5, and right in the thick of the playoff picture. Despite such high stakes, I trust the Colts so much more than the Dolphins. Miami, especially on offense, has been straight out pedestrian for weeks now, averaging just 17 points per game, while the red hot Colts average 36 points per week in that same span. Like Ben said in his Power Rankings, it's time we take the Colts seriously. Frank Reich has steered the Colts in the right direction, Andrew Luck is back and is as good as ever, and most importantly, the Colts are a winner again. Now awaits an opportunity to win their fifth straight game, against the deficient Dolphins, to end November undefeated. This is my Lock of the Week.

Prediction: MIA 17, IND 29

 GB @ MIN

At 4-5-1, it seems the Packers will miss the playoffs for the second straight season, after making it for the eight consecutive years prior. The Vikings have had their number since 2015, winning four, losing two, and tying earlier this season. Aaron Rodgers may be quarterbacking the hapless Packers, but Minnesota outclasses their division rivals across the board. I don't see how Minnesota lets this one pass them by, especially after being humiliated by Chicago just last Sunday night. It's time that the 2018 Vikings step up. Vikings General Manager Rick Spielman didn't invest $84 million in Kirk Cousins for the fourteenth ranked offense, or for thirteen turnovers by the quarterback, or for an 0-3 record in primetime this season. It's time the Vikings step up and get back on track.

Prediction: GB 20, MIN 23

 TEN @ HOU

While it may be Thanksgiving, we know as much about the Titans now as we did in the preseason. Who are they? They've beaten the Cowboys and Eagles, but lost to the Dolphins and Bills. Just last week, a crazy upset victory over the Patriots was followed up by a stinker against the Colts. So against the division leading Houston Texans, which Tennessee turns up? I know which Houston is turning up. Deshaun Watson, DeAndre Hopkins, and the scariest pass rush duo in the league with Jadaveon Clowney and JJ Watt are up next, who can set a franchise record this week if they win their eighth straight game. While the Titans and Texans both rank rather pedestrian in the league's offensive and defensive measurables and statistics, there is no doubt who the more talented, and more consistent team is. 

Prediction: TEN 14, HOU 24