2018 Midseason Playoff Projections

Written by Sam DeCoste

We've hit the midseason mark in the NFL season, which means it's midseason playoff predictions time! That's right, we did it right before the start of the regular season, we do it midseason, and we look back at them at season's end as well, to see how accurately we projected the postseason. We are certainly smarter now than we were back in August, as we have a better idea of the contenders and pretenders in the NFL, and who have the best chances of playing elimination football in January. So as Week 10 is underway, let us predict who will be playing in the postseason!

AFC

1. New England Patriots (13-3) 

For three out of the past four years, the road to the Super Bowl ran through New England, and you'd be a fool to bet against them to clinch homefield advantage once again. New England has been without Gronk for a handful of games recently, but they are still winning. Tom Brady is flourishing with Julian Edelman back, James White making plays, and Josh Gordon providing an explosive playmaker as well. The Patriots still have games to come against the Vikings and Steelers, but other than that, nobody is giving the AFC champions a problem. The Patriots will cruise to the top seed. 

2. Kansas City Chiefs (13-3)

One luxury the Chiefs cannot enjoy like the Patriots can is that the Chargers are breathing right on Kansas City's neck for the division lead. But if they can get past them in Week 15, in Arrowhead, the Chiefs will clinch the second bye in the conference. Patrick Mahomes has enjoyed a fantastic season in his first as Chiefs starting quarterback, throwing for 29 touchdowns and 7 interceptions in his first 9 games of 2018. There is an argument to be made that opposing defenses will slow him down in crunch time, similar to the Chiefs' second half skid last season, but look at the defenses they will face up against. The Cardinals, Chargers, Seahawks, and the Raiders twice. Enjoy the bye, Kansas City. 

3. Houston Texans (12-4)

Loyal Franchise Quarterback readers will remember I projected the Texans, over the Jaguars, to win the AFC South in the summer, and clinch a bye as well. While clinching a bye in this conference may be a stretch, Houston is the odds on favorite to a division featuring the overachieving Colts, the underperforming Jaguars, and the pedestrian Titans. And don't forget, at the moment of this post, Houston has won six on the trot. Looking ahead, the Texans play four of the final seven games at home, with matchups against Tennessee, Cleveland, Indianapolis, and Jacksonville, with some tough road games against the Redskins, the Jets, and the Eagles sandwiched in between. But Houston is the class of the AFC South, and they have a favorable road ahead to cruise to a divisional title. 

4. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5-1)

I must admit that I began to write the Steelers off after an unimpressive 1-2-1 start. I wasn't sure if they could overcome a losing start to the season, nor manage the soap opera drama of Le'Veon Bell's whereabouts. But five straight wins later, Pittsburgh is flying to their fourth divisional title in six years. Keep in mind they have already faced three teams included in the playoff picture, and they won two of those games, including a dramatic victory against division rival, Cincinnati, and a 52-21 obliteration against the impressive Panthers. At this point, the only team that can stand in the Steelers' way is the Steelers. If Ben Roethlisberger regresses to his form from early in the year, if James Conner misses some games, or if Le'Veon Bell actually comes back, the Steelers could stumble. But even if Cincinnati outlasts Pittsburgh in the AFC North, the Steelers will have no trouble clinching their fifth straight playoff berth. 

5. Los Angeles Chargers (12-4)

The Chargers are as much of a guarantee to qualify for the playoffs as there are in the NFL. Only two losses at the midseason mark, both to top tier opposition. They could have soared to a first round bye if not for the noisy neighbors in Kansas City. You have to wonder though, if the Chargers sent a statement back in Week 1 when Mahomes was in town, maybe the outlook of the Chargers would be much different at this point. But apart from that, the Chargers have hardly been tested all year, and they probably won't face another stern test until their Week 15 visit to Arrowhead. They have the Raiders, Broncos, Cardinals, and the Broncos again on the remainder of their schedule, and the Chargers have so much breathing room to lose some games before season's end to botch a chance to clinch a playoff berth for the first time since 2013.

6. Cincinnati Bengals (10-6)

It seems like so long ago when the Bengals were the class o the AFC North and were a player for a first round bye. But after two pedestrian losing seasons, the Bengals are back, and they're faster, younger, and most importantly, they're winning again. Going forward, the Bengals should clinch the final playoff spot in the AFC, given their schedule. Home games against the Browns, Broncos, and Raiders should propel them to a winning record, with tough tests against the Ravens, Chargers, and Steelers sprinkled in, but I can't see anybody pushing the Bengals for the six seed. Miami? Tennessee? Jacksonville? No.

"In the Hunt"

Miami Dolphins (8-8)

Tennessee Titans (8-8)

NFC

1. New Orleans Saints (15-1)

The Saints need to keep winning to clinch the top seed in the NFC, because the Rams aren't going anywhere. They do have some stiff tests coming up, including games in Cincinnati, Dallas, Tampa Bay, and Carolina, which could give them trouble. But they also have four home games remaining, against fierce competition as well, but the Saint average 37 points per game at home. New Orleans has a reputation for lighting up the scoreboard at home, and the Mercedes-Benz Superdome is one of the toughest places to win in the whole league. If you're an NFC playoff team looking to go to the Super Bowl, boy, good luck winning in New Orleans.

2. Los Angeles Rams (14-2)

No need to fear, Rams fans. The Rams will cruise to an NFC West title, and clinch a bye. But going forward, it will definitely be a challenge for the Rams to reach a Super Bowl for the first time since 2001. For starters, some good football teams are on deck to face Los Angeles, including Kansas City, Detroit, Chicago, and none other than the Super Bowl champs, Philadelphia. Secondly, if the Rams do clinch a bye before Week 17, it's a very definite possibility that Sean McVay opts to rest many of his most indispensable starters, as he did last season, which cost the Rams in their record, and their lost momentum going into a first round playoff exit. And maybe most significantly, in Green Bay's visit to the Coliseum in Week 8, Packers fans outnumbered Rams fans in the Rams' house. How do the Rams have an advantage playing at home if their fans are outnumbered? Whose to say that it won't happen again in the postseason if teams with well-traveled fanbases play Los Angeles? If opposing fans are coming in and creating an away atmosphere for the most complete team in the NFL, the Rams have no homefield advantage.

3. Minnesota Vikings (11-4-1)

It boggles my mind that this Vikings team lost to the Bills. The Bills! It was a gloomy start for the Vikings, sitting at 1-2-1 after the first quarter of the season. But they have since won four of their last five games, and they are on track to win the NFC North for the third time in four years. They certainly are the favorite, considering the calamity surrounding them in the division. The Lions are going backwards, the Bears have already dropped some critical games, and the Packers are now just realizing that one-man teams can't win in a team sport league. That being said, however, Minnesota will not moonwalk to a division title, they will have to earn it. They have games against the Packers, Patriots, Seahawks, and two games against the Bears before the end of the season. The next couple of weeks will show us just how good the Vikings are, but no team inside the division is capable of challenging Minnesota.

4. Washington Redskins (9-7)

Sit down, Cowboys fans, and help Kevin "The Benchwarmer" Madden keep the couch warm during the postseason. The NFC East is a two-horse race between the Eagles and Redskins, and the divisional race should go right down to the wire. It was an underwhelming start to the season for the Super Bowl champs, but gradually, they are starting to find their stride. But the most important factor to this divisional race is that the Eagles and Redskins are scheduled to play twice in December, including what could be the pivotal decider in FedEx Field on the final day of the regular season. I am going to stick with my preseason pick in the Redskins, because the division is so tight, and no team has won the NFC East back to back years since 2004, and I think the Redskins will take care of business, with the second easiest strength of schedule in the league from here on out.

5. Chicago Bears (10-6)

It's no surprise to see the Bears in playoff contention once again, considering their roster is freakishly talented and led by a young and innovative coaching staff. What should scare the NFC is that the Bears have been winning lately without Khalil Mack on the field. In the first four games, Mack forced a fumble in every single game, intercepted Aaron Rodgers, scored a pick six in the same game, and logged five sacks. When Mack is back at one hundred percent, he will cause lots of problems for the NFC, considering the Bears have a textbook playoff blueprint: they can run the ball with two dynamic bell cow backs, the quarterback can make plays with his arm and his legs, and the defense ranks fifth in total yards allowed. Chicago is primed to return to the postseason for the first time since 2010, and cause loads of problems for the Super Bowl favorites.

6. Carolina Panthers (10-6)

It's a good thing that Carolina plays half of its games in Bank of America Stadium, because on the road, they are not the same team. They score eleven fewer points when they are on the road, as opposed to Carolina, where they haven't lost all season. It's also a good thing that the Panthers don't play in primetime very often this season, considering Ron Rivera is 8-10 all time when his Panthers play on a national stage. Just consider the Thursday night test at Pittsburgh. A road game, against, most likely, a fellow playoff team, on a hot winning streak, and the Panthers came out completely flat. If nothing changes, Carolina will cruise to a Wild Card spot, and lose in the first round once again, just like last year. 

"In the Hunt"

Philadelphia Eagles (9-7)

Seattle Seahawks (9-7)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7)

Green Bay Packers (8-7-1)

Super Bowl LIII

New Orleans Saints vs New England Patriots

The Saints should clinch homefield advantage in the NFC, and if they do, nobody is outscoring them in their Dome. The Patriots also have a clear path to homefield advantage in the AFC, and even though there is no shortage of talented teams that would beg to differ with my projection, the Patriots are in the Super Bowl until another conference team steps up and knocks New England off of their pedestal. The Chargers? Well, they've only beaten a team with a winning record once. The Chief? The Patriots just beat them, in a shootout, 43-40. The Steelers? But the Steelers have not won in New England since 2008, back when Matt Cassel started at quarterback, and they are 3-11 against the Patriots in the Brady/Belichick era. Point being, I am not confident putting any AFC team in the Super Bowl until somebody comes marching in and sends Brady and Belichick to the couch.

A Saints-Patriots Super Bowl would be thoroughly entertaining. These offenses rank seventh and ninth in overall offense, third and fifth in scoring, and fourth and fifth in touchdowns scored.

The Saints, especially, are on a torrid scoring record. They've scored forty or more points four times this year, including their 45-35 victory over the previously undefeated Rams. They have such a dynamic offense that can beat defenses in so many different ways. They can run it with Alvin Kamara, who has run for 490 yards and scored 9 touchdowns. They can pass it to Alvin Kamara as well, who has 427 receiving yards and 3 receiving touchdowns. They can pass it to Michael Thomas, who is on record pace for receiving measurables this season, already with 70 receptions for 880 yard and five scores this season. They can also pass it to Dez Bryant, who --- what's that? He tore his Achilles? Oh. Well, the Saints can still beat you in so many different ways. Not to mention Drew Brees it their quarterback.

Although the Patriots have a great record of success against excellent offenses, this Patriots defense is not very hard to move the ball on. They rank 24th in overall defense, and 26th against the pass. I'm just not sure they have enough to contain this dynamic Saints offense, nor keep Drew Brees from winning his second Super Bowl.

Prediction: NO 40, NE 38

I hope you enjoyed Franchise Quarterback's midseason special of awards and playoff projections! Be sure to keep reading the Power Rankings and Predix, and listen to the podcast, as the season progresses, right thru to the Super Bowl.