2018 Week 13 Predix

Written by Sam DeCoste

December football is here. Byes are over. Now, each team has five games remaining. Five opportunities to win, better their chances of clinching a playoff spot, or maybe even a first round bye. Simply put, it's crunch time. 

Week 13 in the NFL has some brilliant fixtures in store for us, starting with a banger on Thursday night, when the Cowboys take on the Saints. Around the league, the Vikings battle the Patriots, the Chargers square off against the Steelers, and a crucial divisional win is up for grabs in Philly when the Redskins take on the Eagles. So without further delay, let's see who will win in Week 13. Carry on, and enjoy the Predix!

Here are my season records:

Lock of the Week record: 8-4

Last week's record: 12-3

Regular season record: 116-58-2

 NO @ DAL

While the Cowboys come in with three straight wins, the Saints visit Jerry's World after ripping off ten on the trot. To beat the Saints, Dallas will have to score just about every possession, as every game against the Saints is a shootout. But Dak Prescott is unlikely to outlast Drew Brees for four quarters, considering Dak Prescott completes only 52% of his passes when throwing it over 31 times in a game, while Brees completes has completed 74% in that same category. Not to mention the Saints know how to close games and finish teams off. Brees has a 133.9 quarterback rating in the fourth quarter this season, and he will propel the Saints to victory in what should be an entertaining Week 13 curtain dropper.

Prediction: NO 34, DAL 23

 IND @ JAX

Say what you want about the Colts' strength of schedule, but don't fault the Colts for beating the teams on their schedule. Playoff teams in the NFL beat the teams they're supposed to, and the Colts have done just that. Now at 6-5, they have the Jaguars, starting Cody Kessler, who is 0-8 in his career, without the suspended Leonard Fournette. It doesn't get much easier for Indianapolis, does it? The Jags are winless since September (!!!), and it will be tough to contain Andrew Luck's 32 touchdown passes, which is second most in the league. But the Colts have to be careful --- a loss here would be a crushing blow to their playoff hopes. 

Prediction: IND 27, JAX 10

 BAL @ ATL

The Falcons are winless in their last three, while the Ravens have won two straight with Lamar Jackson under center. While the Falcons may be 4-7, and out of the playoff picture, they have the talent to knock off a vulnerable Ravens squad. The key to the game for Atlanta is scoring first, and building a sizable lead. The best way to neutralize Lamar Jackson is to force him to beat you through the air, and so far, Jackson averages 164 passing yards per game. It doesn't matter that the Falcons are the league's 26th ranked passing defense, Lamar Jackson still has to prove he can throw the ball consistently in the NFL, and I think the Falcons will be the first team to expose Jackson's deficiencies.

Prediction: BAL 14, ATL 28

 CAR @ TB

The roof is crashing in on Carolina. Three consecutive losses. Scoring 22 points per game, allowing 34. Four giveaways, zero takeaways. Nothing has gone right for the NFC's pretenders in November, and now they face a must win situation at the four win Buccaneers. Will the Buccaneers stop Carolina from getting a crucial victory? There's a chance. Keep in mind that the Bucs are one of the top offenses in the league, averaging 453 yards per game, and 355 through the air, despite their merry-go-round at the position this season. Besides, while the Panthers are fighting for a win, the Bucs are fighting for their jobs. Jameis Winston needs to prove to Tampa that he can be the franchise quarterback, and it is crucial he continues to deliver solid performances. Against a Panthers defense which has surrendered 1,163 yards in three straight games, I fancy the Bucs for an upset.

Prediction: CAR 29, TB 31

 CLE @ HOU

Like their AFC South rivals, the Texans have stacked so many consecutive wins against mediocre opposition that many are reluctant to take them seriously. Well, you should absolutely take the Texans seriously. JJ Watt has 11.5 sacks, DeAndre Hopkins has the best pair of hands in all of football, and Deshaun Watson continues to tear apart defenses, throwing for at least two touchdowns in three of his last four games. However, with the Browns coming into town, it will be a four quarter battle. Since the dismissal of Hue Jackson, Baker Mayfield has stepped up big time, throwing for seven touchdowns and averaging a 147.6 quarterback rating in the past two weeks. Not to mention Cleveland leads the AFC in takeaways with 27, and Houston struggled with giveaways earlier in the season. The Texans should outlast the Browns, but underestimate the Browns at your own peril.

Prediction: CLE 27, HOU 31

 LAR @ DET

It will be a combined 23 days since the last time the Rams or the Lions have taken the field on Sunday. The Rams are fresh off their bye, after their thrilling 54-51 victory against the Chiefs, and the Lions are up next. The only possible way for the Lions to beat the 10-1 Rams would be to outscore them, but that is not going to happen. Marvin Jones was placed on injured reserve, Kerryon Johnson is not at 100%. Matt Stafford will not have a competent supporting cast to propel Detroit to an unlikely victory. The Rams are far too talented and in form at the moment to drop a game to the pathetic Lions.

Prediction: LAR 40, DET 20

 DEN @ CIN

Don't look now, but at 5-6, Denver is right in the thick of a heated AFC wild card chase. After two improbable victories against the Chargers and Steelers, the Broncos have a chance to put the pressure on the Ravens, Colts, and Dolphins for the six seed. But for that to happen, Denver has to keep winning. No more stinkers on the road, no more decisive Keenum turnovers, and no more botched crunch time decisions by Vance Joseph. If Denver is for real, then they must beat the Jeff Driskel-led Bengals. Period. Averaging eighteen points and an average defeat margin of eighteen points in their last three games, the Bengals have tumbled out of playoff contention, and there is slim hope for them to send Denver in a downward spiral.

Prediction: DEN 26, CIN 14

 CHI @ NYG

It looks like Chase Daniel is still the man for the Bears this week, with Trubisky trying to return for next week against the Rams. The Bears come in allowing the second fewest yards on the ground this season, and they are the fourth ranked overall defense in the league. If they can copy and paste their Thanksgiving performance against the Lions, it will be smooth sailing for the NFC North leaders. However, it will not be that easy to stop the Giants as it was to stop the Lions. This Bears defense has to stop Saquon Barkley and his 1,410 scrimmage yards and 12 total touchdowns, as well as Odell Beckham's 74 receptions and 1,017 receiving yards. And I just don't have faith in Chase Daniel to replicate his impressive performance either. The Giants will expose the deficiencies in his game, and force him into mistakes. Trubisky may carry the Bears over the finish line, but with Daniel at the helm, I am going to pick the Giants in an upset victory.

Prediction: CHI 16, NYG 24

 BUF @ MIA

While Josh Allen's completion percentage is uninspiring, he has had an impressive rookie season. He can beat you with his arm and his legs, running for 254 yards this season, including 99 rushing yards against the Jaguars last week. Now they march into Miami, in the hunt for some reason, against a Miami team which has lost six of its last eight games, barely with a pulse in the playoff hunt. The key matchup is Ryan Tannehill versus the Bills' number one pass defense, which only gives up 193 passing yards per contest. If the Dolphins move the ball on this Bills D, Miami will find a way to win. But Sean McDermott's Bills swept the Dolphins last season, coming away with key victories late in 2017. But in Miami, the Bills have struggled to run the ball in recent years, with Shady averaging 12 rushing yards per game there, as well as somehow getting injured every time playing in Hard Rock Stadium as a member of the Bills. The Dolphins must win to keep their slim playoff hopes alive.

Prediction: BUF 13, MIA 24

 ARZ @ GB

Bring your gloves and scarfs, Cardinals fans, it's going to be 35 degrees and snowing on Sunday in Green Bay. Also, if you are a Cardinals fan, stay at home in your warm and cozy home, because Arizona may be the worst team in the league. Steve Wilks' squad is poorly coached, unwatchable, and simply untalented. As for the Packers, they must win to sustain their slim playoff hopes. There's been a narrative in the media lately that the Packers will run the table and make it to the playoffs. Let's not get carried away, Green Bay has yet to win back to back games in 2018, so they cannot afford to overlook anybody. It begins against the Cardinals, and a loss would be inexcusable. Have fun stopping Aaron Rodgers in a snowy backyard.

Prediction: ARZ 3, GB 27

 NYJ @ TEN

As of Wednesday, Sam Darnold is back at practice, but he may not start. No matter if the Jets start Josh McCown, Sam Darnold, Bryce Petty, Christian Hackenberg, Tim Tebow, Brett Favre, whoever, the Titans are the favorite. And don't forget about Tennessee, they are still 5-6 and very much alive in the AFC wild card race. A win puts them back at .500, and with the opportunity to return to the playoffs for the second straight season. And while they lost to the Texans rather handedly, Marcus Mariota had his best day as a pro, throwing just one incompletion, for 303 yards and 2 touchdowns. He is improving as the season has progressed, and the Jets are no worthy foe to stop the Titans from earning a much needed victory.

Prediction: NYJ 13, TEN 27

 KC @ OAK

How many teams score 51 points and still lose? That classic shootout in LA was the last time the Chiefs set foot on the field, and now they have the unenviable challenge of facing the 2-9 Raiders. Don't forget, if Patrick Mahomes throws for 20 more touchdowns this season, Heinz Ketchup will provide him free ketchup for life. He needs to throw four per game in the last month of the season, and the Raiders have allowed the second most touchdowns on defense this season with 25. Jon Gruden's Raiders are still at each other's throats, while Andy Reid's Chiefs are getting better every week, so the result goes without saying.

Prediction: KC 41, OAK 25

 MIN @ NE

Many Vikings fans believed this would be the Super Bowl in US Bank Stadium just ten months ago, if not for an epic collapse. But enough of that, this year's Vikings are chasing the Bears at the top, looking for a victory in Foxborough. In years past, Gillette Stadium has been an impenetrable fortress, a place opponents never had a glimmer of hope to win. And while the Patriots are unbeaten at home this year, the Patriots haven't played the way fans may have expected. New England ranks only eighth in total offense, and Tom Brady ranks eleventh in passing yards, fifteenth in touchdown passes. New England is...pedestrian on offense. But last week, they rushed for 215 yards against the Jets. That is a positive they can take into this week, and going forward, if they can run the ball efficiently. It's time to take some pressure off of ol' Tom, and let Sony Michel and James White do some work in the backfield. Keep Kirk Cousins off the field, and run the ball up Minnesota's gut. 

Prediction: MIN 17, NE 28

 SF @ SEA

A win for Seattle puts them at 7-5, in pole position to clinch a playoff berth. A loss at home to the Niners would be a calamitous disaster, considering the Niners, you know, stink, and the Seahawks have owned them in recent years. The last time San Francisco beat Seattle was back December of 2013. Yikes. It's my responsibility to write logical analysis for every team's chances of winning every week, but I just can't think of anything to say for the Niners. They stink. They are heading towards a top two draft pick, while the Seahawks have their eyes set on postseason football. Start all your Seahawks in fantasy.

Prediction: SF 10, SEA 30

 LAC @ PIT

Get used to the Chargers playing under the lights. Los Angeles plays three of their next four games in primetime, and for the first time since 2014, the Chargers play on Sunday Night Football. But with Melvin Gordon injuring his MCL last week, the challenge of beating the Steelers becomes significantly harder. Austin Ekeler, while a dynamic complement to Gordon, he filled in for Gordon earlier in the season, only rushing for 42 yards in their Week 7 game against the Titans. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh returns home, looking to rebound after an embarrassing performance against Denver. While the Chargers and Steelers match up evenly on paper, there is one decisive tiebreaker between them --- the Chargers are unproven on the national stage. Pittsburgh knows how to win in December, in primetime, and the Chargers have just one victory against a team with a winning record this season. The Steelers will cruise to a win. This is my Lock of the Week.

Prediction: LAC 17, PIT 34

 WSH @ PHI

I know the Redskins are tumbling faster than Humpty Dumpty, but no one could have predicted such decimation on their roster. Every player and his brother on the Redskins is on injured reserve nowadays, which is making Jay Gruden's job impossible. Now they have a crucial divisional matchup against the Eagles, desperately needing a win to keep their dim hopes of winning the NFC East alive. But there is still hope. Colt McCoy had admirable spells against Dallas, but awful blocking and poor decision making cost the Redskins in the end. But what gives Washington a chance in Philadelphia is that they have an identity, the Eagles are still searching. What do the Eagles do well? They can rush the passer when they want to, their defensive backs are receivers, and they can't find ways to move the ball. That being said, the only way Washington wins in the Linc is by outscoring them, and Colt McCoy's Redskins are not capable of getting the job done.

Prediction: WSH 17, PHI 23